3:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Heat -4.5, Over/Under: 208.5
Fans of 90’s NBA nostalgia rejoice, as the New York Knicks and the Miami Heat have come to a crucial checkpoint in this Eastern Conference Semifinal, with the former looking to return to the Big Apple with a 2-2 split, while the latter aim to take a commanding 3-1 lead in tonight’s affair from South Beach. While this season has very much served as a renaissance for the Knicks (47-35, 5th in Eastern Conference), who have advanced past the first round of the playoffs for the first time in a decade, the good times may be coming to an end in this revival of one of the NBA’s fiercest rivalries. The last time that New York advanced to the East Semis, they were a largely veteran group amassed via trade and free agency, whereas this particular unit is a much younger collective consisting of homegrown talent that has been greater than the sum of its parts this season. With that said, that’s not to say that they haven’t added pieces when they could. This most notable acquisition was the signing of (emerging Guard) Jalen Brunson, who has gone on to exceed every expectation that the anyone could have had for him. After spending the previous four seasons as a member of the Mavericks’ supporting cast, Brunson (pictured above) eventually worked his way into the starting five before authoring some eye-opening performances in last year’s playoffs, which raised the value of the impending free agent considerably. When the opportunity arose to sign with the Knicks, with his father, Rick, serving as an assistant coach, the 26-year-old put pen to paper on a four-year, $104 million contract and has done nothing but live up to those figures, posting career-highs across the board with averages of 24.0 points 3.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 0.9 steals while netting 49.1% of his attempts from the field, including 41.6% from beyond the arc. Though he and his teammates were able to dispose of the Cavaliers with surprising ease in the first round, this matchup with the Heat is proving to be a very different story altogether, as the sweet shooting touch that they rode to a gentlemen’s sweep has all but betrayed them of late. (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau’s troops have averaged just 99.3 points thus far on a disappointing 42.1% shooting from the field in this series, with a particularly dreadful run from the perimeter magnifying their struggles. How bad have the Knickerbockers been from downtown, you ask? They’ve netted just 27.2% of their attempts from three, punctuated by a franchise record THIRTY-TWO misses in Game Three’s miserable 105-86 defeat over the weekend. The visitors shot just 8-of-40 from beyond the arc in this one (20.0%), eschewing opportunities to get to the paint, where they were outscored in decisive fashion, 36-50. The tandem of Brunson and (veteran Forward) Julius Randle combined for thirty points, but missed all of their ten attempts from long-range, with latter committing more turnovers (4) than assists (2). And that has been the other issue in this series, for the Knicks have not taken care of the basketball by any means, with thirty-six turnovers in the previous three games, including thirteen in Saturday’s loss. While that total may not come across as overly inflated, it’s far from ideal when you can only amass fifteen assists, while that baker’s dozen of mistakes leads to sixteen points for the opponent. Granted, New York has been solid defensively, but they’re going to need to find ways to manufacture some easy offense, and turning Miami over would be a great place start; thus far, they’ve forced just twenty-seven turnovers in this series, with over half of that total coming in Game Three. If they can hurry them up and get out into transition, then Brunson & Co should be to play downhill against an opponent that they have a clear size advantage over. From a betting perspective, the Knicks have been slightly below average over their last ten games, posting a 4-5-1 record against the spread regardless of the opponent. With that being said, they’ve been better on the road in this regard, going 5-4-1 against the spread in their last ten trips away from Madison Square Garden, failing to cover two of their last five ventures abroad. That same notion also applies to being underdogs, with a 2-2-1 mark over their last five outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. As far as this particular matchup with Miami, they are 4-6 their last ten trips to South Beach along with their last ten meetings as an underdog from a spread standpoint, though are 2-8 and 3-7 in those categories straight-up. Furthermore, these Knickerbockers have failed to cover four consecutive games in this particular round of the postseason. On the injury front, (young Shooting Guard) Immanuel Quickley is doubtful to participate in tonight’s crucial affair after suffering a sprained ankle in Saturday’s loss.
Meanwhile, by now you’ve probably heard how the Heat (44-38, 8th in Eastern Conference) are far from your average eight seed. A year after earning the top seed in the east, Miami stumbled into the Play-In and very nearly fell out of the competition altogether, rallying to overcome the Bulls after getting punked by the Hawks at home. Of course, this set up what many thought would have been a beatdown at the hands of Bucks, though that affair played out in a completely adverse manner; (Head Coach) Erick Spoelstra’s troops stunned the basketball world by upsetting Milwaukee in five games, becoming just the sixth team in NBA history to upset a one seed in the first round, and the first in over a decade. Again, this isn’t your typical eight seed, folks. First and foremost, (six-time All-Star) continues to find ways to elevate his play in the postseason, almost singlehandedly putting the Bucks out of their misery; the 33-year-old averaged a robust 37.6 points on 59.7% shooting in that series, including 44.4% from beyond the arch along with 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.8 steals, highlighted by a 56-point performance in Game Four followed by a 42-point gem in the finale. Butler (pictured above) continued to flex in Game One of this East Semifinal, leading Miami to a 108-101 victory in Game One at Madison Square Garden to steal home court, with twenty-five points, eleven rebounds, four assists, and two steals despite rolling his ankle late in the affair. Content with earning a split in the Big Apple, Spoelstra kept his star Guard out of Game Two, only for him to return in Game Three’s 105-86 drubbing of the Knickerbockers, led once again by Butler with twenty-eight points, four boards, three assists, and a pair of blocks. Sure, he only shot 9-of-21 from the field (42.9%), but he made up for it at the charity stripe, where he netted 10-of-11 attempts (90.9%), with that same notion applying to the hosts as a whole. We touched upon New York’s struggles shooting the basketball in this one, but in all honesty, Miami wasn’t much better in that regard, knocking down only 38.9% of their shots from the field and 7-of-32 from three (21.9%), but they were a whopping 28-of-31 from the line (90.3%), parlaying to a commanding +12 advantage. Through the first three games of the series, they’re 63-77 from the stripe (81.8%), edging their opponent by fourteen points thus far, which helps compensate for their own stuttering offense, while also affording them the luxury of being able to set their half-court defense and keep the Knicks out of transition. Essentially, Butler & Co are dictating the tempo of play and controlling the overall narrative. Apart from Butler’s production, Spoelstra was no doubt happy to see the supporting cast show up in Game Three, as (two-time All-Star) Bam Adebayo made a positive impact with seventeen points on 7-of-14 shooting (50.0%) and a dozen rebounds, while (veteran Point Guard) Kyle Lowry continues to be more effective in smaller doses off the bench, with fourteen points three boards, and four dimes. Furthermore, (unheralded swingman) Max Strus is the latest undrafted success story of the franchise’s lauded “Heat Culture”, showing up big with nineteen points on 7-of-14 shooting (50.0%), three rebounds, a steal, and a block. From a betting perspective, the Heat have been nothing short of WHITE HOT of late, covering the spread in eight of their last ten outings, including each of their last six games in these playoffs. They are also 8-2 both straight-up and against the spread in their last ten contests at Kaseya Center, though have been less reliable when favored by the oddsmakers, posting a middling 5-5 mark as a favorite. With that said, Spoelstra’s charges are riding a seven-game winning streak against the spread when performing on one day of rest. However, keep an eye on if this line moves up to five, because Miami is just 1-5 against the spread over their last six games in which they have bene favored between 5.0-10.5 points. On the injury front, we know that both Tyler Herro (hand) and Victor Oladipo (knee) are both out for the remainder of the postseason, while the aforementioned Butler is playing on a tender ankle, but there are more names on the injury report, including that of Adebayo (shoulder) and Caleb Martin (back), who are each probable due to their respective maladies.