7:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Celtics -7, Over/Under: 214
One of the NBA’s historic rivalries adds yet another bitter chapter to its story, as the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics face off in an absolutely PIVOTAL Game Five from TD Garden with this Eastern Conference Semifinal squared away at two games apiece. Looking purely at the numbers, in no way should the 76ers (54-28, 3rd in Eastern Conference) be in the position that they are in this series, for if not for a pair of late go-ahead daggers from (ten-time All-Star) James Harden, they could very well be eliminated from the postseason altogether. With (newly minted MVP) Joel Embiid sidelined with an ailing knee in Game One, the bearded one carried the Sixers to a 119-115 victory via a clutch triple from the top of the arc, before staving off a late Boston rally in Game Four on the strength of a running floater to send the affair to overtime, followed by a decisive trey from the corner to grant his team a narrow 116-115 win over the weekend. Indeed, Harden (pictured above) has been the center of conversation in this matchup, with the 2017-2018 MVP doing his best to exercise his own personal history of playoff failure. By now we’re all acquainted with his story: the only player in the history of the Association to win multiple scoring and assists apiece, the mercurial 33-year-old has been much-maligned for his performances in the postseason, with the lows greatly outweighing the highs that he has authored over the past decade plus. Last May, he looked visibly slower and heavier, unable to create space from defenders, but that has not been the case this time around, averaging 23.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 8.1 assists through eight games thus far. However, this series with the Celtics has seen him serve as Philadelphia’s true barometer of success; in his team’s two wins Harden has posted 43.5 points on a healthy 62.2% shooting, including 13-of-23 from downtown (56.5%), with 4.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 3.0 steals, while in the two losses he’s looked invisible with 14.0 points on a miserable 17.8% shooting overall and 2-of-13 from beyond the arc (15.3%), though has made up for it in other areas with 8.0 rebounds and 7.5 dimes. Sure, Boston definitely has another gear defensively that other teams simply don’t have, but in many cases, it is a matter of aggressiveness from Harden, who attempted fifty-three shots in those two victories opposed to just twenty-eight in the pair of defeats. (Head Coach) Doc Rivers rode his stars to Sunday’s win, as Harden and Embiid (34 points, 13 rebounds) combined for an appropriate SEVENTY-SIX of the 76ers’ 116 points, while (emerging young Guard) Tyrese Maxey added fourteen points and eight boards. However, if Rivers’ current troops are to successfully eliminate his former employers, then they’re going to need a bit more help from the supporting cast, which would be facilitated by more fluid ball movement. There’s been a lot of isolation ball in this series from Philadelphia, who have averaged just 17.5 assists through four games, and if it weren’t for their ability to get to the charity stripe (74-of-84 FT), then they could be eliminated already. Part of the issue here is that Rivers has opted to post Embiid up at the top of the painted area, so that he can better combat the myriad of double-teams that the Celtics have thrown at him throughout the last three contests, and while that has freed up the big fella to operate, it has clogged some of the precious spacing that his teammates need to penetrate to the rim. It will be interesting to see if this continues to be a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation for Philly, particularly as they return to TD Garden, where they were embarrassed in a 121-87 route last week. From a betting perspective, the winner of each game in this series has also covered the spread, while the 76ers have been on quite the heater in this postseason, covering all but two of their eight games thus far. Rivers’ charges are 6-4 against the spread in their last ten trips away from Wells Fargo but have fared much better of late with four covers in their last five games abroad. With that said, their emerald-clad opponents have been a source of kryptonite for the Sixers, who are 4-6 straight-up and 3-7 against the spread against the Celtics in their last ten meetings overall, while just 3-7 and 4-6 in their last ten games in Boston. Furthermore, those two records also reflect their last ten encounters when Philly has been branded as an underdog by the oddsmakers, which is once again the case tonight.
Meanwhile, we’re going to look at this series from the perspective of the Celtics (57-25, 2nd in Eastern Conference), who for all intents and purposes have DOMINATED this matchup only to find themselves locked in a 2-2 affair. Through four games, Boston has averaged 116.3 points on 48.8% shooting from the field, including 38.0% form beyond the arc, while securing 43.3 rebounds, dishing out 25.5 assists, along with 5.3 steals and a whopping 7.8 blocks. Each of those figures outweighs those of Philadelphia considerably, who they have outscored by 10.3 points, outrebounded by 4.5 boards, and outdished by 8.0 assists. Hell, prior to Sunday’s narrow 116-115 defeat at Wells Fargo Center, (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla’s troops have led for all but a scant handful of seconds in the series. And speaking of seconds, (2021-2022 Defensive Player of the Year) Marcus Smart was second late on a would-be dagger three as time expired in Game Four. Simply put, the Celtics SHOULD have put this series to rest, with the numbers suggesting that is the case, while the reality is something else altogether. So, what in the name of Red Auerbach is going on in Beantown, you ask? Well, there are a few things that we need to unwrap, folks. First and foremost, we need to remember that those statistics weigh heavily in Boston’s favor thanks to their 34-point demolition of Philly in Game Two. The other three games were decided by a meager seventeen points, with two effectively coming down to the final possession. Second, Mazzulla’s charges have once again suffered from some erratic play, committing twenty-six turnovers in the two losses, which has in turn been manufactured into twenty-nine points the other way. During last year’s jaunt to the Finals, when Boston struggled, it was because they couldn’t take care of the basketball and they went cold from beyond the arc, with the former weighing heavily on them once again. Lastly, this team could REALLY use a more consistent effort from (All-Star Swingman) Jaylen Brown. While (All-NBA 1st Teamer) Jayson Tatum has been as advertised thus far with 24.3 points on 47.2% shooting, 11.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, Brown (pictured above) has been a supernova at times, averaging 23.5 points on a stellar 57.4% shooting from the floor and 40.9% from downtown. The problem is that the newly minted All-NBA 2nd Team selection (which ensures him a HEFTY payday) has invoked Kobe Bryant for one quarter only to fade into the background the next. Case in point, the 26-year-old erupted for fourteen points in the first quarter of Game One, netting 6-of-7 shots (85.7%) along the way, only to log THREE more attempts during the remaining twenty-nine minutes that he played. It was a similar story in Sunday’s loss, with Brown going off for twelve points on 5-of-7 shooting in the opening stanza, only to attempt nine more shots the rest of the way. We get it, Boston is blessed with a lot of options offensively, but if they received a more consistent effort from this guy then there is an argument to be made that they would’ve won at least one of those two affairs. From a betting perspective, the Celtics are 6-4 both straight-up and against the spread over the last ten games, regardless of the venue or opponent. They have been a solid play at TD Garden, where they’ve amassed an 8-2 record straight-up and 7-3 against the spread over their last ten home contests. We’ve touched upon their recent advantage over the Sixers, but they’ve also proven quite resilient in covering seven straight outings following a loss against the spread, while riding a six-game winning streak against the spread after a straight-up defeat, with both scenarios being the case tonight. With home court advantage reestablished, tonight’s affair looms large over the fate of this series, for when a best-of-seven set is tied at 2-2, the winner of Game Five have gone on to win said series 82.8% of the time (164-34).