10:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Warriors -7, Over/Under: 226
The potential end of a dynasty is on hand tonight in San Francisco, as one team faces elimination for the first time in well, quite some time, while the other looks to advance farther they have in recent years, in this would-be decisive affair between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors from Chase Center. Though they hold the joint-most NBA Titles in the history of the Association, the Lakers (43-39, 7th in Western Conference) find themselves in place that they have only been on one occasion in the past thirteen years: one win away from advancing to the Western Conference Finals. That’s correct, folks, for after meandering through roughly two-thirds of the campaign only to completely remake themselves at the Trade Deadline and earning entry into the playoffs via the Play-In, this is a team that is suddenly on the verge of pulling their second consecutive upset, at the hands of the reigning champions no less. Indeed, (General Manager) Rob Pelinka earned his money in February, parting ways with the likes of (former MVP) Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverley, Kendrick Nunn, Thomas Bryant, and Juan Toscano-Anderson in exchange for the services of (former Laker) D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, and Mo Bamba over the course of three separate deals. As a result, the Lakers owned the best record in the Association post-Deadline, with an 18-8 mark down the stretch, as (Head Coach) Darvin Ham’s troops have proven to be an ideal foil for Golden State thanks to an excellent game plan that has seen the Purple & Gold sell out defensively to keep the Dubs from getting to the rim, off the glass, and out in transition. A major key to this has been their ability to get to charity stripe, where the club led the league in free-throws attempted (26.6), while yielding the fewest attempts to their opponents (20.8). Think about that for a moment, for this is a team that attempted 476 more free-throws than the opposition this season, while netting 372 more singles over the course of the campaign. Through the first four games of this series, they have attempted a staggering 103 free-throws, FIFTY-TWO more than the Warriors, leading to a commanding 47-point advantage. In Game Four’s thrilling 104-101 victory, the hosts were a perfect 20-of-20 from the stripe, while the visitors were just 9-of-12, which has helped compensate for the dramatic difference between these two sides from beyond the arc (-90). Though he has earned plenty of criticism for his plethora of off-nights in these payoffs, (eight-time All-Star) Anthony Davis has been dominant in defending the rim, with a playoff-high THIRTY-SEVEN blocks thus far, while (four-time MVP) LeBron James continues to defy his age in this, his twentieth campaign. However, as it so often unfolds in the playoffs, the contributions of the supporting cast are essential to achieving any measure of success, and the Lakers have the performance of one Lonnie Walker to thank for this 3-1 series lead. After trailing by a dozen points early in the fourth quarter, Los Angeles looked to be truly dead in the water only for their savior to come from the most unlikely of sources, with Walker (pictured above) erupting for fifteen points on 6-of-9 shooting (66.7%), all of which came in the final period of play. To put this into perspective, this kid logged the seventh-most minutes on the team and was their seventh-leading scorer this season. Indeed, this was quite the turn of events, for the 24-year-old had all but fallen out of Ham’s rotation by the time it was remade at the Trade Deadline, while logging no more than twelve minutes in Games One and Two combined. Thankfully, when his team needed a basket, he was there to provide it, as his teammates continued to make the necessary plays defensively to stymie Golden State down the stretch. With a dozen points in Game Three’s 30-point rout and another fifteen Monday night, it should be interesting to see how much more Ham utilizes his talents in this ever-growing rotation that is ripe with options. From a betting perspective, the Lakers have covered the spread in six of their last seven encounters with the Warriors, including three of four in this series. Los Angeles has been on a roll of late posting identical 7-3 records straight-up and against the spread over the last ten games, though they have come back down to Earth when away from the City of Angels, posting a mediocre 5-5 mark against the spread in their last ten road contests. Furthermore, being an underdog has been rewarding for Los Angeles, who have covered seven of their last ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers, which is once again the case tonight. On the injury front, the status of both James and Davis is always something to keep an eye on with both stars logging HEAVY minutes in this series, though this matchup could see the return of the aforementioned Bamba, who left the previous game with soreness in his left ankle. The seven-footer was one of the many incoming players at the Trade Deadline, though has struggled to find minutes in this postseason, averaging a scant 3.3 in just three outings thus far. Despite the pedigree of their opponent, one would have to like the Lakers chances of advancing to the Western Conference Finals given their current advantage, for they are 37-1 all-time in series in which they’ve built a 3-1 lead, with the only defeat coming to the Suns back in the first round of the 2006 NBA Playoffs.
Meanwhile, after their narrow 104-101 loss at Los Angeles on Monday night, could we be seeing the last of the Warriors (44-38, 6th in Western Conference) as we know them? Granted, though we feel that it is seriously premature to write off a team that has won four NBA Titles in the last eight years, losing only TWO series along the way, the maelstrom of a story that is waiting to unfold is the looming despise of the NBA’s latest dynasty. After winning their fourth Larry O’Brien Trophy since 2015, Golden State struggled through one of the more awkwardly inconsistent title defenses in recent memory, with infighting, injuries, and absences disrupting their trademark chemistry, while their sudden ineptitude on the road (11-30) led many to dismiss them as legitimate championship contenders altogether. With that said, they appeared to round back into form during their first-round classic against the upstart Kings, whom they bested in seven games, with two of their four victories within that series coming on their opponent’s floor, including a torrid Game Seven in which (reigning Finals MVP) Steph Curry eviscerated them to the tune of fifty points. Unfortunately, this affair with the Lakers is proving to be a different story altogether, as (Head Coach) Steve Kerr’s troops find themselves on the brink of elimination due in large part to a number of chinks in their proverbial armor being exposed. So, where is it going wrong for the Dubs, you ask? Well, we covered the sizable disparity in free-throws and attempts, and while that has been glaring, it is only part of the story. Every single time that the Warriors send their opponent to the line, that is one less opportunity that they can push the tempo and exploit Los Angeles in transition, for while their defense has been elite in the half court, it’s been a sieve on the break. Another issue has been the supporting cast, which was vital to their efforts in winning the championship a year ago. Sure, Curry (pictured above) has been awesome despite waves of defenders being thrown his way, while being targeted in post-ups and in the pick-and-roll on the opposite end of the hardwood; the two-time MVP has averaged 25.3 points on 43.7% shooting, with the bulk of his production coming from beyond the arc where he has knocked down 16-of-42 attempts (38.1%). He singlehandedly carried the Warriors in Game Four, registering his third career postseason triple-double, with a game-high thirty-one points, ten rebounds, and fourteen assists, though missed a pair of late attempts from three to take the lead before throwing the ball away out of bounds after gaining possession following a contested jump ball. These last two games have seen the team’s sweet shooting touch betray them, netting just 25-of-85 attempts from downtown (29.4%), with Curry and (fellow sharpshooter) Klay Thompson combining for a meager 13-of-42 on triples (30.9%). In fact, Thompson has struggled mightily of late, along with (last year’s revelation) Jordan Poole, who has managed only five points in the last two contests. So often the Robin to Curry’s Batman, Thompson started the series off hot, pouring in fifty-five points in the first two games in San Francisco, but these last two outings in Los Angeles has seen his star dim considerably, mustering just 12.0 points on 32.0% shooting from the field. This, of course, leads to the tsunami of questions to come if they happen to lose this series. With the NBA’s new CBA making it all the more difficult to maintain premium talent, particularly for repeat luxury tax offenders, will (Owner) Joe Lacob break up the most expensive roster in the Association? Will (defensive savant/resident mouthpiece) Draymond Green, who has a player option for next season at just over $27 million return? Will the club feel compelled to trade either Poole or Andrew Wiggins, both of which received lucrative paydays following their championship triumph last Summer? How about the safety of (General Manager) Bob Meyers, who assembled this juggernaut nearly a decade ago? The winds of change could be blowing through Northern California earlier than expected ladies and gentlemen… From a betting perspective, the Warriors have been largely mediocre over their last ten outings, posting a 5-5 record straight-up and 4-6 against the spread during that span. While winning seven of their last ten games at Chase Center outright, they’ve only covered the line in five of those affairs, while taking six of their last ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers. Interestingly, Los Angeles is proving to be a veritable source of kryptonite to Golden State, who have won just three of their last ten meetings straight-up, while failing to cover seven of them. As we stated earlier, the Dubs find themselves in an unfamiliar situation, with Curry & Co. facing a 3-1 deficit for just the third time since they began their dynastic run back in the 2014-2015 campaign. The first was during the 2016 Western Conference Finals in which they rallied back to defeat the Thunder before eventually relinquishing a 3-1 lead of their own in the ensuing NBA Finals to the aforementioned James’ Cavaliers, while the second was the nightmarish 2019 NBA Finals in which both Thompson and (former Warrior) Kevin Durant both succumbed to serious injury as the Warriors were eliminated in six games at the hands of the Raptors. Furthermore, Golden State is 7-2 in elimination games under the watchful eye of Kerr, including a perfect 6-0 against Western Conference opponents.