10:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Nuggets -5.5, Over/Under: 222.5
After a thoroughly entertaining round of Conference Semifinals, we now transition to the NBA’s final four, with the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets set to battle in Game One of the Western Conference Finals from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. Putting all of their star power and luxurious history aside, you would have found very few people, even in Southern California that could have fathomed that the Lakers (43-39, 7th in Western Conference) would advance to this point, though that just goes to show how quickly fortunes can change with a few trades that can unlock a team’s potential. After meandering through roughly two-thirds of the campaign only to completely remake themselves at the Trade Deadline and earning entry into the playoffs via the Play-In, this is a team that has now become the second-lowest seed to reach the Conference Finals. Indeed, (General Manager) Rob Pelinka earned his money in February, parting ways with the likes of (former MVP) Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverley, Kendrick Nunn, Thomas Bryant, and Juan Toscano-Anderson in exchange for the services of (former Laker) D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, and Mo Bamba over the course of three separate deals. As a result, the Lakers owned the best record in the Association post-deadline, with an 18-8 mark down the stretch, thanks in large part to the Association’s best defensive rating over that period, while infusing the rotation with vastly improved spacing, shot creation, and above all else DEPTH. Besting the shorthanded Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs was one thing but dethroning the (reigning NBA Champion) Warriors in the Western Conference Semifinals opened a lot of eyes around the league; (Head Coach) Darvin Ham came into that affair with an excellent game plan that his troops executed to near perfection, relegating the offensive juggernaut that is the Dubs to a lukewarm 109.8 points per game on 44.2% shooting, including 35.4% from beyond the arc, while earning a ridiculous advantage from the charity stripe (+60), attempting a staggering EIGHTY more free-throws along the way. (Four-time MVP) LeBron James (pictured above) continued to defy the advances of Father Time in this, his twentieth season in the league, averaging 24.7 points on 49.5% shooting, along with 8.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.2 blocks, including a vintage 30/9/9 performance in Friday night’s clincher from crypto.com Center. Apart from a pair of off-nights in San Francisco, (eight-time All-Star) Anthony Davis was indispensable against Golden State, posting 21.5 points on 57.8% shooting, 14.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.2 blocks throughout the series, with his defense and rebounding dismantling the champs in the paint. Furthermore, Ham & Co received a slew of timely performances from various members of the supporting cast, with four other players scoring in double-figures over the course of the matchup, including a CRUCIAL 15-point performance in the fourth quarter of Game Four from the unheralded Lonnie Walker IV to give his side a commanding 3-1 series lead. From a betting perspective, the Lakers were just 48-45-1 against the spread during the regular season, though have been on a tear in that regard during these playoffs, covering eight of their last fourteen contests. Over the last ten games, they are both 7-3 straight-up and against the spread, while covering just four of their last ten trips away from the City of Angels. Ham’s charges have only been marginally better as underdogs, posting a 6-4 mark over their last ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers, which is the case tonight, though it should be noted that they won and covered Game One in each of the previous two series on the road to take an early advantage. Furthermore, they have split their past five meetings with the Nuggets straight-up, while mustering a similar 5-4-1 record against the spread. With that said, they are a promising 3-1-1 in their last five encounters as an underdog. On the injury front, there is always going to be an emphasis placed on the health of both James and Davis, with the former beset by the effects of a foot injury that caused him to miss thirteen games down the stretch of the regular season, while the latter has been sidelined on a plethora of occasions throughout his tenure with the franchise. Fortunately, the aforementioned Bamba could make his return from a sore ankle that caused him to miss the final two games of the previous series, with the towering 25-year-old potentially offering Davis a respite in defending Denver’s Nikola Jokic (MUCH more on him shortly). Los Angeles finds themselves in the Western Conference Finals for a record FORTY-SECOND time, while owning a commanding 32-9 record (.780) in this particular round of the postseason. James himself is participating in his TWELFTH Conference Finals, having lost at this stage of the playoffs just once in his illustrious career. Ironically, the last time that either he or the Lakers advanced to this point was against none other than the Nuggets, who they dispatched with relative ease back in the 2020 Bubble in Orlando en route to eventually the winning the franchise’s joint-record SEVENTEENTH NBA Championship.
Meanwhile, looking at how the playoffs have unfolded on this particular side of the bracket, you can’t fault the Nuggets (53-29, 1st in Western Conference) and their fans for feeling confident in the likelihood of their advancing to the NBA Finals, which would be a first for the franchise. For the bulk of the campaign, if there was one constant in the wild, unpredictable Western Conference, it was certainly Denver, who sat comfortably atop the standings for the final four months of the regular season. While they may have lacked the championship pedigree or outright star power of some of their contemporaries, they were by far and away the most consistent group out West and in a season in which there were so many injuries befalling contenders, they were without a doubt the healthiest. Oh, it also certainly didn’t hurt having the reigning two-time MVP, Nikola Jokic, in their lineup, with the towering Serbian putting together yet another statistically anomalous campaign; the five-time All-Star Center certainly made his case for a third consecutive Michael Jordan trophy, posting averages of 24.8 points per game on a highly-efficient 63.2% shooting from the field, along with 11.8 rebounds, 9.8 assists (an NBA record for Centers), and 1.3 steals, while netting a stellar 38.3% of his attempts from beyond the arc. With that said, Jokic (pictured above) has been a bonafide star destroyer for a number of years now, while the supporting cast around has left a bit to be desired largely due to injuries. Well, that has NOT been the case this season, for (Head Coach) Mike Malone has what has been easily the best rotation at his disposal during his time in Denver, eclipsing even that of the group that reached the Western Conference Finals in the Bubble three years ago. First and foremost, (young sharpshooter) Jamal Murray is finally healthy after tearing his ACL during the latter stages of the 2020-2021 season, putting up 20.0 points on 45.4% shooting and 39.8% from three, along with a career-high 6.2 assists in sixty-five games, while increasing that production to 25.9 points on 46.1% shooting with 6.5 dimes in these playoffs. Second, Michael Porter Jr. (17.4 PPG on 48.7% shooting and 41.4% from three in a career-high 62 starts) has been healthy and productive as the third scoring option, while the likes of Aaron Gordon (a crucial addition at last year’s trade deadline), along with (useful veterans) such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown have added more options and versatility to the rotation. After handling their business in their gentlemen’s sweep of the Timberwolves in the first round, the Nuggets finished off the Phoenix Suns in six games, a team that at the beginning of the playoffs was the betting favorite to win it all. Well, the oddsmakers may want that one back after a series in which Denver put Phoenix into a proverbial blender for much of the affair; Jokic & Co were nearly unstoppable offensively, averaging 117.2 points on 49.6% shooting from the field, including 37.0% from downtown, along with 25.3 assists in comparison to committing just 9.8 turnovers, with their size, length, and depth proving to be HUGE advantages. Hell, in Games Five and Six they outscored them by a collective FORTY-ONE points, with Jokic unsurprisingly playing a massive role in the affair; the five-time All-Star was dominant in torching the Suns for 34.5 points per game on an efficient 59.4% shooting with 13.2 rebounds, and 10.3 assists, along with a steal and a block apiece, passing the legendary Wilt Chamberlain for most triple-doubles for a Center in playoff history (11), registering three in the final four games of the series, while pouring in FIFTY-THREE points in Game Four. From a betting perspective, the Nuggets were a strong team against the spread, posting a solid 52-41 record during the regular season, followed by a 7-4 mark in that regard in these playoffs. Denver has covered the number in six of their last ten games regardless of the opponent or venue, though has been stellar at home with records of 9-1 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread in their past ten outings in the high altitude of Ball Arena. Furthermore, they have yet to lose a game at home in this postseason, while covering all but one of those six affairs. Despite being just 4-5-1 against the spread versus the Lakers in their last ten meetings, Malone’s charges are 5-3-2 in that regard over their last ten encounters in Colorado. On the injury front, this is a team that is completely healthy at the moment, for the last time that we could say that about them in the playoffs was way back in that aforementioned battle with the Lakers in the Bubble. Making their fifth appearance in the Conference Finals in franchise history, Denver is seeking to advance to their first-ever NBA Finals. Ironically, each of their last four runs to this stage have ended at the hands of none other than the Lakers, who bested them in the Bubble three years ago, as well as 2009 and 1985, each of which resulted in the Purple & Gold going on to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy. In twenty-four career meetings with Los Angeles, Jokic has averaged 19.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 6.2 assists, while raising that stat line to 22.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.8 steals in that previous postseason encounter.