8:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Celtics -8, Over/Under: 210.5
It has been said that familiarity breeds contempt, and if that is the case then we should be in for quite a show as the surprising Miami Heat battle the mighty Boston Celtics for the third time in the last four years in this, Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals from TD Garden. By now you’ve probably heard how the Heat (44-38, 8th in Eastern Conference) are far from your average eight seed. A year after earning the top billing in the East, Miami stumbled into the Play-In and very nearly fell out of the competition altogether, rallying to overcome the Bulls after getting punked by the Hawks at home. Of course, this set up what many thought would have been a beatdown at the hands of Bucks, though that affair played out in a completely adverse manner; (Head Coach) Erick Spoelstra’s troops stunned the basketball world by upsetting Milwaukee in five games, becoming just the sixth team in NBA history to upset a one seed in the first round, and the first in over a decade. The Heat did nothing but confirm their status as a legitimate postseason threat in the following series against the Knicks, whom they eliminated in six games. In a matchup that invoked their classic encounters from the late 90s, Miami asserted themselves as the better side, oftentimes slowing the games to a crawl and forcing New York to beat them in the half court. Simply put, this series served as another masterclass by Spoelstra and his coaching staff, who really confounded their opposite number as the Knickerbockers could muster just 100.5 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field, including a miserable 29.9% from beyond the arc, with 19.1 assists in comparison to committing 13.7 turnovers. Granted, the Heat were far from juggernauts offensively, they did benefit from taking much better care of the basketball (9.7 turnovers per game), but they also enjoyed having the best player in the series, namely (six-time All-Star) Jimmy Butler. As we saw last postseason, Butler (pictured above) is capable of performing at herculean levels in the playoffs, almost singlehandedly eliminating Milwaukee in the first round, before taking New York to task despite missing Game Two with a sprained ankle. Over the course of the series, the 33-year-old averaged 24.6 points on 43.2% shooting, along with 7.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 blocks, including a 24/8/4 showing in Friday’s clinching Game Six. We’ll see what he has in store for the Celtics, who in last May’s encounter in the Eastern Conference Finals averaged 25.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.0 steals in that seven-game epic, highlighted by a 41-point performance in Game One and a 47-point eruption when facing elimination in Game Six from the Garden, before his would-be game-winning trey fell short in the waning moments of Game Seven. With that said, as great as Playoff Jimmy has been, the supporting cast has had an awful lot to say throughout this postseason run, with various members of their number making timely contributions. Credit to Spoelstra and his staff for dialing up key performances from undrafted players such as Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Caleb Martin, each of which being testaments to the league’s best player development staff, while veterans such as Kevin Love (added via the buyout market) and Kyle Lowry (resurrected since his move to the bench) have thrived in new roles. From a betting perspective, the Heat went a subpar 40-53-2 against the spread during the regular season, though have been far better in these playoffs, covering eight of their last eleven games. 7-3 straight-up and against the spread over their last ten outings regardless of the opponent or venue, they are a middling 5-5 in both regards over their last ten trips away from South Beach. However, few teams have been a better bet as an underdog than Miami, who have covered the number in EIGHT of their last ten contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers, including four of their last five. As far as this particular matchup goes, Spoelstra’s charges are 4-6 against the spread in their last ten meetings with the Celtics, while flipping that record on its head in their last ten ventures to TD Garden. On the injury front, we should keep an eye on Butler’s mobility after suffering a sprained ankle early in the previous round of this postseason, though it didn’t keep him from torching the Knicks. He will be without the services of both (2020-2021 Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro and (veteran Guard) Victor Oladipo for this series, with the former continuing to rehab from a broken bone in his hand, while the latter is done for the playoffs due to a torn patellar tendon in his knee. Tonight’s affair marks the tenth time in franchise history that the Heat have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals, where they have posted a 6-3 series record, with each of their most recent two trips to this stage pitting them against Boston, whom they bested in six games back in the 2020 Bubble before falling just short in Game Seven of last year’s epic in Miami.
Meanwhile, for the fifth time in the last seven years, the Celtics (57-25, 2nd in Eastern Conference) once again find themselves in the Eastern Conference Finals, and for the third time they will face a familiar foe. Indeed, the faithful in the Northeast are hoping that the more things change, the more they stay the same, for even with a different figure calling the shots on the sideline, Boston remains a HEAVY favorite to return to the NBA Finals. Unfinished Business has been the theme for this season for the shamrocks, who after coming up short in their first NBA Finals in over a decade were met with adversity in the offseason as (Head Coach) Ime Udoka was fired due to complications via an inappropriate relationship he had with a member of his coaching staff. Rather than look outside the organization for his replacement, (former Head Coach and current President of Basketball Operations) Brad Stevens opted to look within, promoting Udoka’s chief lieutenant, Joe Mazzulla, who operated as a proverbial “offensive coordinator” last season. As a result, the Celtics improved greatly on that particular end of the hardwood, ranking fourth in the NBA in points per game (117.9) and second in offensive rating (118.0), without compromising their play on defense, which served as their catalyst to the Finals last year. After avoiding a spirited comeback from Atlanta in the first round, they participated in a bloodbath with the 76ers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, an affair that would go the distance and see Boston ultimately emerge triumphant in a decisive 112-88 victory from the Garden. It’s eerily similar how this playoff run appears to its predecessor, for last year’s slugfest with the Bucks in the East Semis saw them fall behind 3-2, only to avoid elimination in Game Six on the road, setting up a comfortable home victory in Game Seven in front of their ravenous fan base. Despite going the distance, it was clear that the Mazzulla’s troops were the better team throughout the series, edging the Sixers in points (+62), assists (+40), three-pointers (+75), among a host of other categories. Defensively, they made life rather miserable for Philadelphia, who could muster just 101.9 points on 43.0% shooting from the field, while the prolific tandem of (newly minted MVP) Joel Embiid and (ten-time All-Star) James Harden was relegated to a combined twenty-four points on 8-of-29 shooting (27.5%) and 1-of-9 from three (11.1%), and more turnovers (9) than assists (8). Of course, it certainly helped that the Celtics received massive heroics of their own from (All-NBA first teamer) Jayson Tatum, who really saved his best for last, pouring in an NBA-record FIFTY-ONE points in a Game Seven. Make no mistake, Tatum (pictured above) experienced his share of ups and downs in this series, but showed up when his team needed to, overcoming a dismal start in Game Six to torch Philadelphia for sixteen fourth-quarter points to avoid elimination, before going 17-of-28 from the field (60.7%), 6-of-10 from downtown (60.0%), and 11-of-14 from the charity stripe (78.6%) in Sunday’s clincher. He’ll be counted upon to lead the charge against the Heat, who in last year’s epic matchup averaged 25.0 points on 46.2% shooting from the floor, 35.3% from three, 8.3 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.1 steals, and 0.9 blocks. Looking to tonight’s matchup, there are two things to keep an eye on that could swing this series in or out of Boston’s favor. First, Mazzulla invoked his predecessor with the return of a noticeably larger starting lineup featuring (veteran Forward) Al Horford and (sparkplug Center) Robert Williams, who were strategically key to their evolution last season into a dominant defensive team. In the final two games of the series, they held the 76ers to an average of just 87.0 points on 36.7% shooting overall and 22.5% from three, while outrebounding them by 9.0 boards, and permitting a paltry 16.5 assists. Granted, part of that transition to a larger lineup was combat the aforementioned Embiid, and it remains to be seen if Mazzulla will favor it against the smaller Heat. Secondly, as has been the case over these last two postseason runs, the Celtics’ three-point shooting has served as the true barometer of their success. Last Spring, they shot 35.0% from long-range in defeat, but netted a healthy 38.6% in victory, with that trend carrying over into these playoffs, shooting 41.0% in their eight victories opposed to 37.1% in their five losses. Furthermore, they have posted a stellar 12-5 record in the last two postseasons when they have nailed at least fifteen triples in a single game, passing that threshold on SEVEN occasions already this Spring. From a betting perspective, the Celtics were certainly one of the better teams in the Association against the spread, posting a solid 52-41-2 record during the regular season and are 8-5 against the spread thus far in these playoffs. 6-4 both straight-up and against the spread over their last ten outings regardless of the opponent or the venue, they have been strong at home in posting a 7-3 record in both regards in their last ten games contested at TD Garden. As far as this particular affair goes, Boston has covered the line in six of their last ten meetings with Miami, while matching that mark over the course of their past ten encounters when favored by the oddsmakers. Tonight’s showdown marks the THIRTY-EIGHTH time that this storied franchise has advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals, the most in NBA history and just a few appearances short of the Lakers for the most all-time Conference Finals appearances. The shamrocks own a 22-16 all-time series record at this stage, though last year’s triumph over the Heat in seven games snapped a losing streak of four series dating back to 2012, which ironically included a pair of defeats at the hands of none other than Miami.