8:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Celtics -8, Over/Under: 215.5
Though one half of the 2023 NBA Finals are set, it appears that we may have to wait just a little longer to see how will represent the East, as the Boston Celtics desperately try to prolong their playoff run at home against the surging Miami Heat in this, Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals from TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. Despite missing a golden opportunity to take care of business at home and advance to their seventh NBA Finals in franchise history, the Heat () stand confident that they will eventually put the Celtics out of their misery, be it tonight or within the coming days. After all, there have been 150 instances in which a team has established a commanding 3-0 series lead and those clubs have gone on to win said series EVERY time. So, let’s take a look at how Miami got to this point, shall we? A year after coming a missed three-pointer away from reaching the Finals, (Head Coach) Erik Spoelstra’s troops struggled throughout what was a frustratingly inconsistent campaign, qualifying for the playoffs via the play-in tournament where they came dangerously close to falling out of the competition altogether. In hindsight, it appears that that brush with sporting death has awakened something within this team, who has completely transformed themselves into arguably the biggest pain in the ass in the league, upsetting the top-seeded Bucks in a gentlemen’s sweep before eliminating the upstart Knicks with relative ease in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Considerable underdogs heading into this ECF rematch with the Celtics, they proved to be the superior team through the first three games of this affair, eviscerating Boston’s defense to the tune of a whopping 120.7 points per game on 51.9% shooting and 47.8% from the perimeter. (Six-time All-Star) Jimmy Butler, is once again reaching another level in the playoffs averaging 26.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 3.0 steals thus far. However, Butler (pictured above) is far from alone, for the supporting cast has been a HUGE component to their success in this series. You’ve probably heard plenty about Heat Culture over the last few weeks, referring to the unique atmosphere around the franchise, which has long been ahead of the curve in developing unheralded and oftentimes undrafted talent. This is where Spoelstra and his staff have earned their roses, for the veteran skipper has pushed the right buttons over and over again; whether it’s been Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, or Duncan Robinson, the Heat have received timely performances from a number of proverbial no-names, while the move to bring (veteran Point Guard) Kyle Lowry off the bench has proven to be a stroke of genius. The Heat thrived in beating the Celtics at their own game, running them off the three-point arc and minimizing their impact from long-range, while catching fire themselves, outscoring their opponent by a whopping thirty-nine points in Games One through Three. With that said, that disparity was turned on its head in Tuesday night’s 116-99 loss at home, as the hosts were edged by THIRTY points from downtown, netting a miserable 8-of-32 of their attempts (25.0%). It was also the first game in this series in which Miami struggled to take care of the basketball, committing sixteen turnovers, which Boston was all too happy to manufacture into TWENTY-SEVEN points. Prior to Game Four, Butler & Co had turned over the rock no more than a dozen times, including just nine of them in Game Three. As a team, the home side shot 43.6% from the field, but lost control of the game in the third quarter where they were outscored 38-23, netting an ice-cold 8-of-22 overall (36.4%) and 2-of-8 from three (25.0%), while committing more turnovers (5) than assists (3). In the end, Butler led the way with twenty-nine points despite the bulk of his total coming from the charity stripe (10-of-12), along with nine rebounds, and five assists. The quartet of Martin, Vincent, Robinson, and Strus, who combined for seventy-nine points on 28-of-45 shooting from the field (62.2%) and 17-of-31 from three (54.8% in that 128-102 blowout victory, were far more reserved in accounting for forty-four points on 16-of-33 shooting (48.8%) and 4-of-18 on treys (22.2%). Keep an eye on Vincent, who was hobbled by a sprained left ankle and is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest. From a betting perspective, the Heat were a subpar 40-53-2 against the spread during the regular season, though have been far superior in these playoffs, covering ELEVEN of their last fifteen games. 7-3 both straight-up and against the spread over their last ten outings regardless of the opponent or venue, they have won six of their last ten games away from Kaseya Center outright, covering seven of them along the way. However, where Miami has been a darling for the betting community has been as an underdog, covering all but two of their last ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers, including each of the first three entries of this series. Building off that, this is a team that is riding a four-game winning streak against the spread when they’re an underdog between 5.0-10.5 points, which is once again the case tonight. Furthermore, Spoelstra’s charges have proven to be rather comfortable at TD Garden, both winning and covering seven of their last ten trips to Boston, including each of their past ventures to the Northeast. With that said, they have failed to cover four consecutive contests following a double-digit loss at home. Despite falling short of logging their sixth-ever series sweep in franchise history, the Heat have never allowed a series to last longer than five games after racing out to a 3-0 advantage, eliminating their opponent in Game Five on three occasions. With a win tonight, they will become just the SECOND eighth seed to advance to the NBA Finals, ironically joining the 1999 Knicks who famously upset them in the first round.
Meanwhile, history may provide concrete evidence that they are indeed dead men walking, but the Celtics (57-25, 2nd in Eastern Conference) don’t appear to be buying into that narrative. Prior to their impressive 116-99 victory in Game Three, many members of the team offered the warning to Miami “not to let us win one…”, which may or may not prove to be prophetic as Boston managed to avoid the sweep in what was easily their strongest performance of the series. As we covered earlier, the biggest change was simple: they made shots. Sure, that sounds overly simplistic, but it nonetheless holds true for a team whose biggest barometer for success has been their ability to make it rain from beyond the arc. During the regular season, (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla’s troops netted 17.1 treys on 42.4 attempts (40.3%) and outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 18.6 points in victory opposed to just 13.6 threes on 43.0 attempts (31.6%) for a +0.9 advantage in defeat. Needless to say, that is a wide gulf, ladies in gentlemen. And so, it played out through the first three games of this affair that they have knocked down a miserable 31-of-106 triples (29.2%) and were outscored by thirty-nine points in that regard, equating to a margin of -13.0 points per contest. However, Tuesday night’s tilt proved to be a different story altogether, as the shamrocks were finally rewarded for letting it fly from downtown, knocking down a whopping 18-of-45 attempts (40.0%). To put this into perspective, they almost erased their deficit on triples from the previous three games in forty-eight minutes. Over the last two postseasons, this is a team that is a commanding 6-2 when making eighteen or more triples, including 3-1 in these playoffs. Five different players poured in at least three treys, led by (All-NBA First Teamer) Jayson Tatum, who once again proved his mettle in an elimination game. With his back against the wall, the four-time All-Star has proven adept in rising to the occasion, averaging 30.1 points on 48.0% shooting and a stellar 47.6% from three, along with 8.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.2 steals and blocks apiece in seven elimination games over the last two postseasons. We already saw Tatum (pictured above) erupt for an NBA-record FIFTY-ONE points in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, and he was at it again in Miami, pouring in thirty-three points, eleven rebounds, seven assists and a pair of blocks, while shooting a torrid 14-of-22 from the floor (63.6%). Fourteen of his points came in that aforementioned third quarter that really saw the Celtics pull away, shooting a blistering 14-of-23 from the field (60.9%) and 7-of-12 from downtown (58.3%), while dishing out eight assists and committing only one turnover. Of course, he had plenty of help too, with five other members of the rotation scoring in double-figures. Though (All-Star Shooting Guard) Jaylen Brown, who may or may not be nursing a hand injury, and (2021-2022 Defensive Player of the Year) Marcus Smart continued to struggle from the field (28 points on 11-of-27 shooting), the triumvirate of Derrick White, Al Horford, and Grant Williams (who was embroiled in a notable confrontation with Butler in Game Two) turned up aces, combining for forty-two points, fifteen rebounds, eight assists, and four blocks, while shooting 13-of-24 overall (54.1%) and a white-hot 10-of-19 on treys (52.6%). Another factor in getting their first victory of this series was the Celtics finally looking like the Celtics on the defensive end of the hardwood; Boston relegated Miami to 43.6% shooting, including 35.0% in the second half. The sixteen turnovers that they forced allowed tph speed up the tempo as well, leading to an 18-10 advantage in transition, their biggest of the series. This also leads to a much more efficient offense, which goes an awful long way towards keeping their heads above water when those treys aren’t falling through the nylon. From a betting perspective, the Celtics were certainly one of the better teams in the NBA against the spread, posting a solid 52-41-2 record during the regular season though are only 9-8 in that regard thus far in these playoffs. 5-5 both straight-up and against the spread over their last ten outings regardless of the opponent or the venue, they have been surprisingly average at home, winning and covering just half of their last ten games at TD Garden. We’ve covered their knack for thriving as an underdog (9-1 in last 10 games), which they did once again on Tuesday night, but being a favorite has been a different story; Boston is a mediocre 4-6 straight-up and against the spread over their last ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers, while failing to cover the number in three straight as a favorite, which is the case tonight. If the C’s do in fact meet defeat tonight, this could become yet another CRUCIAL offseason for the franchise; a year after parting ways with the aforementioned Udoka due to an embarrassing scandal stemming from a relationship with a member of his staff, there are rumors swirling that Mazzulla’s status could be thrown into question roughly a month after receiving a vote of confidence from ownership, while the future of Brown has become quite the topic of discussion as he enters the final year of his contract, with his All-NBA selection making him eligible for the super max extension, a MAJOR payday that the franchise may or may not want to commit to. Will (former Head Coach and current President of Basketball Operations) Brad Stevens trade the young swingman in the offseason? Will he opt to replace Mazzulla, and if so, who will he have his eye on? Would he even entertain the idea of returning to the sideline himself? The winds of change are likely to be passing through Beantown this summer, folks…..