8:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Celtics -7.5, Over/Under: 203.5
Finally, the Eastern Conference Finals has come to a Game Seven, and we may see some serious history made along the way as the Boston Celtics look to become the first team in NBA history to ever win a series after falling behind 3-0 against the Miami Heat in this finale from TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. My oh my, what a turn of events it has been for the Heat (44-38, 8th in Eastern Conference) in this series, who after racing out to an improbable three-game lead against the reigning Eastern Conference Champions, have found themselves staring down the barrel of losing four consecutive contests, which carries a wealth of weight with it. Losing four straight games to any particular opponent in a series is jarring enough but becoming the first to ever do so after leading 3-0 is a nightmare scenario for Miami. Indeed, prior to this potentially historic comeback, the best story of this postseason has been (Head Coach) Erik Spoelstra’s troops, who after meandering through the regular season and looking all but dead in the play-in tournament, have been revitalized in the playoffs proper, upsetting the top-seeded Bucks in the first round before knocking off the upstart Knicks in the Eastern Semifinals, before stunning the basketball world in the early stages of this matchup with the Celtics. Seriously, folks, this team was far from being a world-beater in the regular season; the Heat ranked dead-last in scoring (109.5) and twenty-fifth in offensive rating (113.0) prior to the playoffs, only to turn up their namesake and torch the competition for 114.9 points on 48.0% shooting from the field, including 38.8 from beyond the arc. Hell, through Games One to Three in this series alone, they had erupted for 120.7 points on a stellar 51.9% shooting overall and a torrid 47.8% from downtown respectively, though have since seen the proverbial tables turn over the last three affairs. In these last three defeats, their shooting as betrayed them, as they’ve been able to muster just 99.7 points on 43.0% shooting and 36.5% from three, which all represent steep drop-offs for Miami. So, what in the name of Alonzo Mourning has happened to this team, you ask? Well, it certainly hasn’t helped that their opponent has rediscovered their sweet shooting touch along with their dominant defensive prowess, though Spoelstra’s outfit has contributed to their own demise as well, particularly in turning the ball over and giving Boston extra opportunities. After committing just thirty-one turnovers in their three victories, the Heat equaled that total in Games Four and Five, which has since seen the tempo of play become much livelier than they would prefer. And then there is (five-time All-NBA Guard) Jimmy Butler, who despite carrying the offensive load throughout these playoffs, averaging a robust 28.5 points on 48.8% shooting, 7.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 2.0 steals, appears to be running low on fuel in these last three contests. Butler (pictured above) posted 26.0 points on 46.0% shooting, along with 7.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 3.7 steals in Games One through Three, but in Games Four through Six has seen his production dip to 22.3 points on a dismal 36.5% shooting, though has still put in the work in other areas with 8.3 rebounds and 6.3 dimes. Saturday night’s epic 104-103 loss at Kaseya Center continues to push that narrative, as the 33-year-old finished with twenty-four points, eleven rebounds, and eight assists, despite much his scoring output coming from the charity stripe where he shot 12-of-14 (85.7%) in comparison to a miserable 5-of-21 from the field (23.8%). Given his penchant for authoring some truly amazing postseason performances, we wouldn’t dare count Playoff Jimmy out in this decisive Game Seven, but if Miami are to advance to their seventh NBA Finals in franchise history, they are going to need him to be at his very best. From a betting perspective, the Heat were just 44-55 against the spread during the regular season, though have managed to flip the switch in this regard in the playoffs, covering twelve of their last seven postseason contests. With that said, after winning and covering the number the first three entries of this series, Miami has lost each of the last three games straight-up before snapping a string of back-to-back spread defeats over the weekend. Both 6-4 straight-up and against the spread over their last ten outings overall, Spoelstra’s charges are looking for their third and final cover in Boston in this series. The underdogs have run wild in this affair, with Butler & Co. owning a stellar 8-2 record against the spread over their past ten games when receiving points from their opponents, which is once again the case tonight. On the injury front, the Heat are without the services of both Tyler Herro (hand) and Victor Oladipo (knee), who were both KO’d earlier in the playoffs, though the former could return to action if his team does in fact advance to the Finals later this week. Furthermore, (unheralded Guard) Gabe Vincent is nursing a sore left ankle that he suffered in the latter stages of Game Four, though did return to action for Game Six, with fifteen points on 6-of-18 shooting from the field, including 3-of-6 from beyond the arc. As they look to avoid the dubious distinction of becoming the first team in NBA history to ever meet defeat after earning a 3-0 series lead, Miami is 6-4 all-time in Game Sevens, with their last ironically coming against Boston, who bested them in the waning moments of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, a 100-96 loss at (formerly known) FTX Arena in which the aforementioned Butler’s potential go-ahead three-pointer fell short. It should also be noted that this is a franchise that has NEVER won a Game Seven on the road, losing at Toronto in 2016 and Atlanta in 2009.
Meanwhile, are we really going to see history made tonight in Boston? After looking shellshocked following a 26-point beatdown in Game Three, the Celtics (57-25, 2nd in Eastern Conference) looked all but dead with an offseason of uncertainty awaiting them. Of course, how could they not? In the previous 150 examples of teams falling behind 3-0 in the NBA Playoffs, NONE of them have ever managed to successfully rally to victory. In fact, tonight’s affair marks only the FOURTH time that a series has ever been extended to a decisive seventh game following such a scenario. However, it would be awfully poetic if the first NBA franchise to earn such a triumph would the shamrocks, for after all, they wouldn’t have to look far for the inspiration, given that the Red Sox became the first MLB franchise to perform such a feat, storming back to best the New York Yankees in epic fashion in the 2004 ALCS. And just like that series with Curt Schilling’s iconic performance and historic bloody sock, Boston’s professional hoops club received an iconic performance including its own iconic play in a Game Six. Despite leading for much of the affair, (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla’s troops went cold from the field, missing all but one attempt over the final five minutes of the fourth period and as such, found themselves trailing 103-102 with just three seconds remaining to play. Inbounding from the quarter mark, (veteran Guard) Marcus Smart received the pass and quickly turned around to fire off a desperation three-pointer, only for the ensuing rebound to fall shortly to the left of the rim. However, with all seeming lost, (veteran Swingman) Derrick White swooped in to tip the ball back up and through the nylon, silencing the South Beach crowd and giving the visiting side an improbable victory all in a matter of seconds. Though the referees would take some time to review the play to make sure that White’s fingertips were off the ball prior to the final buzzer, he and his teammates rejoiced in the fact that they remained alive with the series returning northeast for one more matchup. It was the kind of win that leaves believing that the Celtics may very well be destined to win this series, for after rediscovering their long-range shooting (34-of-84 3FG) in Games Four and Five, Boston shot a postseason-low 3-of-35 from downtown (20.0%) on Saturday night, though managed to overcome it with a return to form on the defensive end of the hardwood. Earlier, we covered how Miami has plummeted on offense over the last three games, and you had better believe that Mazzulla’s unit has had a lot do with that, with Game Six being no different; the C’s relegated the home side to a mere 35.5% shooting from the floor, which would represent a playoff low for their opponent. (All-NBA First Teamer) Jayson Tatum, who has been unreal when facing elimination over the last two postseasons, showed up again with a team-high thirty-one points, twelve rebounds, and five assists, making up for his 0-of-8 shooting from three with a perfect 15-of-15 showing from the free-throw line. (Fellow All-NBA selection) Jaylen Brown continued his breakaway from a dismal start to the series, totaling twenty-six points on a torrid 9-of-16 shooting (56.3%), ten rebounds, three assists, and a pair of steals, while Smart finished with twenty-one points and all but three of his team’s seven three-pointers. As for White (pictured above), he added only eleven points after burying six triples en route to pouring in twenty-four points in Game Five, with that timely tip-in likely to live on in the annals of Boston sports history. From a betting perspective, the Celtics were certainly one of the better teams in the Association against the spread, owning a stellar 54-45-2 record in that regard, but have been less consistent in these playoffs where they have covered just ten of their nineteen contests. Splitting their last ten games straight-up, Boston has covered the number in six of those outings, though are 2-1 against the spread over these last three outright victories following a three-game losing streak in both regards to start this Eastern Conference Final. We mentioned earlier that both of these teams have been veritable juggernauts when they’ve been underdogs, but in tonight’s case the shamrocks are favorites, where they’ve been a much different team, covering four of their last ten tilts. We’ll see if they can rekindle the mystique of TD Garden; 32-9 at home during the regular season, the C’s are just 5-5 on their home floor in this postseason, continuing a puzzling trend from last year when they went 6-6 en route to being eliminated in front of their fans in Game Six of the 2022 NBA Finals. On the injury front, keep an eye on (newly minted Sixth Man of the Year) Malcolm Brogdon, who admitted after Game Five that he is playing through a partially torn tendon in his right forearm, which explains his miserable 1-of-13 shooting from the field (7.7%) in Games Three through Five, before Mazzulla effectively benched him altogether in Saturday night’s miracle in Miami. Over the course of their proud history, the Celtics are an INSANE 27-9 all-time in Game Sevens, which includes each of their last five dating back to 2018. Furthermore, they have posted a ridiculous 21-5 mark in those Game Sevens that have been contested in Boston.