8:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Nuggets -8.5, Over/Under: 219.5
And then there were two, for after three rounds of thoroughly entertaining basketball we reach the ultimate stage as the surprising Miami Heat take on the well-rested Denver Nuggets in Game One of what must surely be the most improbable NBA Final in history. By now we should all concede that there are the Heat (44-38, 8th in Eastern Conference) of the regular season and the Heat of the playoffs, who despite possessing the same coaching staff and personnel couldn’t be more different from each other. A year after earning the top seed in the East, Miami meandered their way throughout the campaign, ranking dead-last in scoring (109.5) and twenty-fifth in offensive rating (113.0) prior to the playoffs. However, there are some very clear reasons for their struggles throughout the regular season, as (Head Coach) Erik Spoesltra’s charges missed the fourth-highest total of games due to injury in the NBA (268), and easily the most of any team in these playoffs. Fortunately, they began to round back into form over the final nineteen games of the campaign, in which they averaged 115.1 points on a healthy 49.5% shooting from the field, including 38.4% from beyond the arc, with 25.7 assists in comparison to committing just 13.3 turnovers, while netting 20.4 free-throws. Basically, that would equate to a top-ten offense in the NBA over that span. That offensive resurgence has carried over into the postseason, where they have turned up the heat (no pun intended) on their opponents to the tune of 111.7 points on 47.2% shooting and 39.0% from downtown. That notion absolutely applied to their shocking conquest of the Celtics, whom they finally managed to oust in a stunning 103-84 victory in Game Seven at TD Garden, marking the largest margin of victory for a road team in a Game Seven in NBA history. After racing out to a 3-0 lead, the Heat found themselves on the verge of becoming the first team in NBA history to ever lose a series following such an advantage, though managed to stave off Boston’s furious rally with a convincing triumph that left the faithful in Beantown heading for the exits earlier than they would have preferred. After netting just 35.5% of their overall attempts in Game Six, Miami was locked in offensively on 48.8% shooting, including 14-of-28 from three (50.0%), while their defensive pressure snuffed out the host’s torrid three-point shooting (21.4%). Seriously, folks, the visitors held Boston to just EIGHTY-FOUR points, marking the first time all season that they had been relegated below ninety points. As he has throughout these playoffs, (five-time All-NBA Guard) Jimmy Butler (picture above) led the way with twenty-eight points on 12-of-28 shooting (42.9%) along with seven rebounds, six assists, and three steals en route to earning ECF MVP honors, though he received a wealth of help from the supporting cast, which has been a revelation for Miami in this postseason. Much has been made of the club’s Heat Culture, which speaks to how Spoelstra and his staff have managed to develop a number of undrafted players into key contributors throughout this run, with the likes of Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, and Duncan Robinson all enjoying huge moments over the last seven weeks. Monday night, it was Martin’s turn, as the unheralded swingman torched the shamrocks again and again with twenty-six points on a lethal 11-of-16 shooting (68.8%), ten boards and three dimes, singlehandedly thwarting a number of runs that his opponent tried to make to cut into the deficit. After averaging just 9.6 points on 46.4% shooting in 29.3 minutes per game during the regular season, the 27-year-old raised his play to 14.4 points on a stellar 56.6% shooting, including 43.8% from long-range in the playoffs, along with three 20-point performances in this series alone. Another key factor in their win over the C’s was how effective their zone defense was, as the home side had ZERO answers for the tactical shift from Spoelstra. Boston shot just 39.0% from the field and 9-of-42 on treys (21.4%), while netting all but eight of their thirty-six attempts from the perimeter when facing the zone (22.2%). Spoelstra has been masterful at making defensive adjustments throughout this postseason, setting up quite the matchup with Denver’s high-powered offense. From a betting perspective, the Heat were certainly underwhelming in the regular season where they amassed a 31-49-2 record against the spread, only to completely flip the script in these playoffs, where they have covered the number in FOURTEEN of their twenty postseason outings. Miami is both 6-4 straight-up and against the spread over their last ten games overall, though have covered seven of their last ten trips away from South Beach. However, where they’ve really earned their money has been as underdogs, which is a role they’ve played many times in these playoffs; Butler & Co are a commanding 11-3 against the spread during the postseason when receiving points from the oddsmakers, including four outright victories in their last five contests as dogs. With that said, they’ve rarely enjoyed success in either regard when it comes to facing the Nuggets, who they have lost all but two of their last twelve meetings against, while failing to cover the spread in nine of their past ten encounters. On the injury front, there is growing optimism that (2021-2022 Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro will make his return from a broken right hand that has sidelined him for the last six weeks. Needless to say, Spoelstra would certainly welcome some more firepower from the supporting cast, which is something that the 23-year-old has in spades; operating exclusively as a starter this season, Herro averaged 20.1 points on 43.9% shooting overall and 37.8% from three, along with career-highs in both rebounds (5.4) and assists (4.2). Reports out of South Beach indicate that he could very well return to action by Game Three, when the series shifts to South Florida. The Heat are making their seventh all-time appearance in the NBA Finals, all of which occurring since 2006, which marks the most of any franchise in the league during that span, and their first since the 2020 Bubble where they ultimately fell short of securing their fourth Larry O’Brien trophy. Furthermore, they are just the second Eight Seed to ever reach the Finals (the first since 1999) and are only the third team to ever reach the Finals despite sporting a negative points differential (-26) in the regular season, the first since 1953.
Meanwhile, even though they were the most consistent and by far and away the healthiest team in what was nothing short of a wild and crazy Western Conference, while also becoming one of the largest betting favorites in the history of the NBA Finals to boot (-360), the Nuggets (53-29, 1st in Western Conference) can’t help but shake the feeling that they too are a bit of a surprise to have reached this stage. Indeed, they may not own the championship cache’ of the Warriors or Lakers, or the outright star power of the Suns or Clippers, and probably aren’t as exciting to watch as young upstarts such as the Grizzlies or Kings, but at the end of the day all Denver did was quietly handle their business, sitting atop all of those teams for the final four months of the campaign. After making a surprise run to the Western Conference Finals in the 2020 Bubble, (Head Coach) Mike Malone’s troops failed to advance past the second round in each of the following two postseasons despite sporting the two-time NBA MVP, Nikola Jokic (pictured above), who depending on your POV may be knocking on the door of GOAT status for big men. The five-time All-Star Center certainly made his case for a third consecutive Most Valuable Player award, posting averages of 24.8 points per game on a highly efficient 63.2% shooting from the field, along with 11.8 rebounds, 9.8 assists (an NBA record for Centers), and 1.3 steals, while netting a stellar 38.3% of his attempts from beyond the arc. While the towering Serbian has continued to shatter records since then, the team constantly felt like it was missing something, as they waited for the healthy return of (young sharpshooter) Jamal Murray, who missed roughly a season and a half rehabbing from a torn ACL. Thankfully, the 26-year-old was finally healthy this season, putting up averages of 20.0 points on 45.4% shooting and 39.8% from three, along with a career-high 6.2 assists in sixty-five games, while raising those figures in the playoffs to 27.7 points, 5.5 boards, and 6.1 dimes, all the while netting 48.0% of his attempts from the field. Simply put, Murray’s return completed what has become the most balanced lineup that Malone has had during his tenure with the franchise, with presence of a healthy and productive Michael Porter Jr. (17.4 PPG on 48.7% shooting and 41.4% from three in a career-high 62 starts) emerging as a consistent third scoring option, along with the likes of Aaron Gordon and (useful veterans) such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown adding more options and versatility to the rotation. Armed with a full clip for the first time in three years, the Nuggets have been a juggernaut in these playoffs, eliminating the Timberwolves, Suns, and Lakers with relative ease, averaging 116.4 points per game on 49.0% shooting, including 38.6% from beyond the arc, while dishing out 25.9 assists in comparison to committing just 11.4 turnovers. Looking back, their merciless sweep of Los Angeles in the Western Conference Finals was eye-opening as they simply could not be stopped offensively, eviscerating the top-rated defense in the NBA as of the trade deadline to the tune of 118.0 points on 49.3% shooting overall and 40.3% from downtown, where they outscored their opponent by a whopping SIXTY-THREE points over four games. Six different players averaged in double-figures scoring in that series, led by Murray (32.5 points/52.7% FG/40.5% 3FG) who was absolutely ungradable at times, while Jokic AVERAGED a triple-double with 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 11.8 assists. After passing Wilt Chamberlain for most career playoff triple-doubles for a Center, it was awfully poetic that he continued to add to his ledger against one of the Big Dipper’s former clubs. That triumph over the Lakers marked a slew of firsts for the Nuggets, who earned their first-ever series sweep along with their first postseason conquest of Los Angeles, though above all else punched their ticket to their first NBA Finals in franchise history. So, how do they matchup with the Heat, you ask? Favorably. Over their last twelve encounters, Denver has defeated Miami on TEN occasions, including each of their two meetings this season. In their first affair, a 124-119 win at Ball Arena, the hosts ran away down the stretch on the strength of a balanced effort that featured EIGHT different players scoring in double-figures, while in their second leg, a narrow 112-108 battle at Kaseya Center, the visitors rode a strong performance from Jokic (27/12/8) to victory without the presence of both Murray and Gordon, who missed the game due to injury. In those two encounters, Malone’s outfit had their way with the Heat on the offensive end, averaging 118.0 points on an efficient 58.6% shooting from the field, including 50.0% from three, while dishing out a staggering 34.0 assists. We covered Miami’s success in utilizing a multitude of zone defenses against the opposition in these playoffs, and it will be interesting to see how much of that they will be able to run against Denver, who averaged 1.12 points per possession against zone looks this season, the second-highest figure in the Association. From a betting perspective, the Nuggets were more than a solid betting option during the regular season, posting a 44-37-1 record against the spread, while continuing that performance in these playoffs where they’ve covered the number in nine of their fifteen contests. Denver is 8-2 straight-up and 6-4 against the spread over their last ten games overall, though have yet to meet defeat in the lofty altitude of Ball Arena in this postseason, covering all but two of those outings. Furthermore, they are 9-1 straight-up as a favorite, while covering six of those affairs when laying points. Oh, and that dominance over the Heat that we touched upon earlier? They’ve covered nine of their last ten meetings, including each of the last six encounters. On the injury front, this team is about as fresh and rested as any to enter the NBA Finals, having enjoyed TEN days off between eliminating the Lakers and tonight’s opening tip, marking just the fourth time in the past twenty years that a team has had that many days off before Game One. In case you were wondering, teams hosting Game One that have had five or more days of rest prior to the Finals are a commanding 8-1 in such games (.889) and have gone on to win said series eight times to boot. The lone outlier? The 1998 Jazz, who fell to The Last Dance Bulls, led by some dude named Michael Jordan…