8:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Nuggets -8.5, Over/Under: 216.0
With Thursday night’s opening salvo out of the way, the 2023 NBA Finals rage on with an all-important Game Two as the Miami Heat look to square things away before the venue shifts to South Beach, while the surging Denver Nuggets look to take a commanding 2-0 lead tonight from Ball Arena. Well, after pulling three stunning upsets in Game One in as many successive series, the Heat (44-38, 8th in Eastern Conference) finally hit a roadblock in their trip to Mile High, where they fell to its residents in a 104-93 affair. Needless to say, this was a considerable departure from what we’ve come to expect from only the second eighth seed to ever reach the Finals; Miami turned in a more subdued performance rather than a poor one, shooting just 40.6% from the field, including 13-of-39 from beyond the arc (33.3%), despite dishing out twenty-six turnovers and turning the ball over just eight times. No, the problem for (Head Coach) Erik Spoelstra’s troops, at least on the offensive end, was their utter lack of aggression. You can oftentimes tell how aggressive a team is by how frequently they head to the charity stripe. To put this into context, this is a team that averaged 23.0 free-throw attempts in the regular season (19th Overall) and 20.0 thus far in the postseason (10th Overall), though in Thursday night’s opener they attempted just TWO in forty-eight minutes of basketball, which is unsurprisingly the fewest ever launched in the history of the Finals. Simply put, this is NOT a recipe for success for the Heat, really count on getting these freebies from the line. While they’ve been a far superior offensive team in these playoffs than they were during the regular campaign, they’re not quite on the level of teams like the Nuggets, and as such rely upon free-throws to control the tempo and supplement their attack. Perhaps it was the thin air in Denver, or maybe it was the fact that they enjoyed just two days of rest following their epic conquest of the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals (seven fewer days than their opponent), but no matter what theory you subscribe to it’s impossible to refute that this team looked completely off. Hell, even (five-time All-NBA Guard) Jimmy Butler looked like a different human being altogether, offering just thirteen points on 6-of-14 shooting from the floor (42.9%) and ZERO free-throw attempts. Keep in mind that this is a guy that LIVES at the charity stripe, having averaged at least eight attempts a night in each of the past four seasons. Furthermore, this is a guy that thrives on driving to the rim, which made this showing all the more perplexing from the 33-year-old; Butler (pictured above) twenty drives into the paint in the Eastern Conference Finals, though authored just EIGHT in Game of this series. However, Butler wasn’t the only member of the Heat to disappear, for (rising star) Caleb Martin was nowhere to be found in Game One. After averaging 19.3 points on an efficient 60.3% shooting and 48.9% from three in the previous series against Boston, the undrafted swingman was relegated to a scant THREE points on 1-of-7 shooting (14.3%) on Thursday night. Could the stage be too big for the unheralded 27-year-old? Perhaps, but you have to expect performances like this from time to time with so many undrafted players, and if we’re being completely honest, Spoelstra & Co have earned the benefit of the doubt here given the success that they’ve enjoyed in developing such players. Martin wasn’t alone in this regard, as (fellow swingman) Max Strus laid a goose egg with ZERO points and 0-of-9 from the perimeter twenty-one minutes of action. With that said, there were some positive takeaways from this contest. First, (versatile Forward) Bam Adebayo was a major protagonist with a team-high twenty-six points on 13-of-25 shooting (52.0%), thirteen rebounds and five assists, despite giving away a wealth of size in defending Denver’s Nikola Jokic (much more on him in a bit). Second, not all of Miami’s unheralded supporting cast members floundered in this one, as Gabe Vincent played very well with nineteen points largely on 5-of-10 shooting from three (50.0%), while Haywood Highsmith put in eighteen points on 7-of-10 shooting (70.0%) off the bench. Lastly, a late shift to a zone defense (which was so effective against the Celtics) did manage to slow down the host’s onslaught in the second half; after getting torched on 59.5% shooting in the first half, the visiting side yielded just 40.5% over the final twenty-four minutes of action. From a betting perspective, the Heat were definitely underwhelming in the regular season in amassing a 31-49-2 record against the spread, only to have completely flipped the script in these playoffs where they have covered the number in FOURTEEN of their twenty-one postseason outings (.667). Miami is both 5-5 straight-up and against the spread over their last ten games overall, though have covered six of their last ten trips away from South Beach. However, where they’ve really earned their money has been as underdogs, which as an eighth seed is a role that they’ve played many times in these playoffs; Butler & Co are a commanding 11-4 against the spread during the postseason when receiving points from the oddsmakers, including four outright victories in their last six contests as dogs. With that said, they’ve rarely enjoyed success in either regard when it comes to facing the Nuggets, who they have lost all but two of their last thirteen meetings against, while failing to cover the spread in ten of their past eleven encounters. There is some good news to be found on the injury front, for there is growing optimism that (2021-2022 Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro will make his return from a broken right hand that has sidelined him for the last six weeks. Needless to say, Spoelstra would certainly welcome some more firepower from the supporting cast, which is something that the 23-year-old has in spades; operating exclusively as a starter this season, Herro averaged 20.1 points on 43.9% shooting overall and 37.8% from three, along with career-highs in both rebounds (5.4) and assists (4.2). Reports initially indicated that he was targeting a return in Game Three, but following his club’s offensive struggles in the opener, he very well may return to the hardwood tonight…
Meanwhile, the Nuggets (53-29, 1st in Western Conference) just keep getting more and more confident with each passing game, and all things considered, can you blame them? Simply put, if you are a subscriber to momentum being essential at this stage of the playoffs, then Denver has that precious commodity in SPADES. Unfazed by a lengthy layoff between their sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, (Head Coach) Mike Malone’s troops were supremely focused in Thursday night’s opener, as they came out like a juggernaut against the road-weary Heat. As we stated earlier, the hosts were superb in the first half, outscoring Miami 59-42, shooting 59.5% from the field and 5-of-11 from beyond the arc (45.5%), while dishing out eighteen assists in comparison to committing just four turnovers, with four different players scoring in double-figures. (Versatile Forward) Aaron Gordon poured in fourteen of his sixteen points in the first two periods, all the while playing excellent defense on the aforementioned Butler, while the dynamic duo of (two-time MVP Center) Nikola Jokic and (sharpshooting Guard) Jamal Murray combined for twenty-eight points on 11-of-15 shooting (73.3%). With his opponent determined to make him more of a facilitator early in Game One, the towering Serbian responded in kind with ten assists in the first half, six of which came in the first quarter alone, tying a record set by LeBron James during a Finals opener. When it was all said and done, Jokic and Murray (pictured above) combined for fifty-three points, sixteen rebounds, and twenty-four assists, with the former logging yet another triple-double, extending his own NBA record of nine triple-doubles in this postseason. Simply put, the big fella has been nothing short of sublime and it is a beautiful thing that he is getting the opportunity to finally shine on such a stage. The 28-year-old scored or assisted on FIFTY-EIGHT of his team’s 104 points, the third-highest total in a Finals debut, while his fourteen dimes are the most ever logged by a Center to boot. Furthermore, he and Murray are two of just four players all-time to post 25+ points, 5+ rebounds, and 10+ assists in a Finals debut, and they managed to do so as teammates in the SAME GAME. Getting back to what we said about confidence earlier, Malone & Co should be very happy with the outcome of this affair for Jokic and Murray’s mastery aside, the team as a whole could have played MUCH better. Think about it, folks, the Nuggets were held nearly twelve points below their season average (115.8), were not particularly effective from downtown (8-of-27 3FG), owned a minor advantage on the glass despite being a much larger team (+2 REB), and totaled just nine fast break points, yet still managed to lead by as many twenty-four points in what was a comfortable victory. Sure, there has been a lot of talk about the Heat’s switch to that effective zone defense that has worked for them throughout these playoffs, and while the Nuggets certainly cooled off int eh second half, it is difficult to attribute it all to the zone; over the final twenty-four minutes of play, the hosts faced nineteen possessions of zone defense, averaging 1.16 points against it per possession, which is in line with the 1.12 points they netted against that particular defense during the regular season, second-best in the Association. The reason for this is when combatting a zone, you need to get the ball to the free-throw line and force the defenders to collapse, opening up space for shooters, which has Jokic written all over it. Coincidentally, he was only on the court for half of those possessions that saw Miami utilize the zone, which may make this a case of fool’s gold for the Eastern Conference Champions. From a betting perspective, the Nuggets were more than a solid betting option during the regular season, posting a 44-37-1 record against the spread, while continuing that performance in these playoffs where they’ve covered the number in ten of their sixteen contests. Denver is 9-1 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread over their last ten games overall, though have yet to meet defeat in the lofty altitude of Ball Arena in this postseason (9-0), covering all but two of those outings. Furthermore, they are 10-1 straight-up as a favorite, while covering seven of those affairs when laying points. Oh, and that dominance over the Heat that we touched upon earlier? They’ve covered ten of their last eleven meetings, including each of the last seven encounters. On the injury front, this team is as fresh and rested as any to enter the NBA Finals, particularly after enjoying TEN days off between eliminating the Lakers and Thursday night’s opening tip and it showed on the court with the relative ease that they cruised to victory.