8:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Nuggets -3.5, Over/Under: 210.5
With one team halfway to glory, the sense of urgency has increased dramatically as the Denver Nuggets look to take one more step towards winning their first NBA Championship, while the Miami Heat simply look to square things away once again in this, Game Four of the 2023 NBA Finals from Kaseya Center. For the second time in this series, we’ve begun to see the lofty potential of the Nuggets (53-29, 1st in Western Conference), who just as they did in last week’s opener, rode their dynamic duo to victory. Indeed, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have certainly been something special in these playoffs, with yet another ridiculous performance in Wednesday night’s 109-94 affair reminding us of what they are capable of doing together. In Game One (104-93), the tandem combined for fifty-three points, sixteen rebounds, and twenty-four assists, with the towering Serbian logging his NBA record NINTH triple-double of this postseason, while the pair became two of just four players all-time to post 25+ points, 5+ rebounds, and 10+ assists in a Finals debut, managing to do so as teammates in the SAME contest. Game Three’s victory was even more prolific for Jokic and Murray (pictured together above), who would score SIXTY-SIX of their team’s 109 points, while also combining for thirty-one rebounds and twenty assists, becoming the first teammates in NBA history to post 30-point triple-doubles in the same contest, regardless of it happening in the regular season, postseason, or let alone the Finals. Seriously, this was nothing short of a two-man hit job from (Head Coach) Mike Malone’s troops, who shot a comfortable 51.3% from the field and 22-of-27 from the charity stripe (81.5%), with twenty-eight assists in comparison to committing just thirteen turnovers. Jokic and Murray each logged over forty-three minutes of action and were in tune with one another from the opening tip; of Jokic’s ten assists, six went to Murray, and of his teammate’s ten dimes, four went to the two-time MVP. And speaking of Jokic, all he does is continue to impress; after Miami went out of their way to force him into being much more of a scorer in Game Two (41 points), the 28-year-old reverted back to his playmaking ways on Wednesday night, dishing out those aforementioned ten assists. Through the first three games, he is averaging 33.3 points on an efficient 59.0% shooting, 14.0 rebounds, and 9.3 assists, becoming the first Center in playoff history to reach 500+ points and 100+ assists in a single postseason along the way. The key here though is Murray, who has been nothing short of fantastic in this, his first healthy playoff run since 2021, when he tore his ACL roughly a month before the postseason. In Denver’s fourteen wins in these playoffs, the 26-year-old has averaged 28.3 points on a torrid 52.0% shooting from the field and 40.0% from downtown, while in his side’s four losses has seen those figures dip to 24.3 points on a less-efficient 45.5% shooting and a disappointing 29.2% from three. Aggression and activity have best described his play in his team’s two victories in this series, posting stat lines of 26/6/10 and 34/10/10 while shooting 50.0% or better in Games One and Three respectively, though in Game Two he was less impactful with just eighteen points on 7-of-15 shooting (46.7%). With all that said, it was far from just the Jokic/Murray Expo in Game Three, for in a series where Malone has lamented the lack of production from his supporting cast, it must have quite the relief to watch (Rookie Swingman) Christian Braun show out the way that he did. Despite falling out of the rotation for a stretch in these playoffs, the 21st pick in the 2022 NBA Draft made a clear case for more playing time, scoring eleven of his fifteen points in the second half. His production allowed the visitors to build their lead to as high as twenty-one points in the second half, while staving off any attempts at a rally that the Heat could have mounted. Braun’s nineteen minutes of action were his most since Game Five of the Western Conference Semifinals and given the relative struggles of other members of the supporting cast such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Malone utilize him more moving forward. From a betting perspective, the Nuggets were more than a solid betting option during the regular season, posting a 44-37-1 record against the spread, while continuing that performance in these playoffs where they’ve covered the number in eleven of their eighteen contests. Denver is 9-1 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread over their last ten games overall, and after meeting defeat for the first time on their home floor in nearly ten weeks proved that they are indeed more than capable of taking their act on the road. Malone’s outfit are 5-3 away from Ball Arena in these playoffs, though Wednesday night’s victory marked their fourth such win in a row straight-up and against the spread. Furthermore, they are 11-2 straight-up as a favorite, while covering eight of those affairs when laying points. Also, with their triumph in Game Three they have now covered eleven of their last thirteen meetings with the Heat in the regular season or postseason, including eight of the last nine encounters. If all of that wasn’t enough to make Jokic & Co confident in their ability to leave South Beach with a commanding 3-1 lead, then this should; historically, when a series is tied at one game apiece, the winner of Game Three has gone to win said series 80.0% of the time.
Meanwhile, the term energy is quickly becoming the key word for the Heat (44-38, 8th in Eastern Conference) in this series, and it is becoming a legitimate question to just how much of it they have left. Simply put, since being forced to participate in both legs of the play-in tournament, this is a team that has been operating behind the proverbial eight ball, and after their grueling seven-game series with the Celtics it is a wonder that they haven’t ran out of gas yet. Indeed, such is the plight of Miami, who is only the second team in NBA history to reach the Finals as an Eight Seed, and in doing so have expended a wealth of energy along the way. With just two days off following their Game Seven triumph in Boston, (head Coach Erik Spoelstra’s troops flew all the way to Denver and were predictably gassed; they shot just 40.6% from the field, including 13-of-39 from beyond the arc (33.3%), and attempted just TWO free-throws in forty-eight minutes of basketball, which is unsurprisingly the fewest ever launched in the history of the Finals. Thankfully, Game Two was a different story as the visitors netted a much healthier 48.7% of their attempts from the field, including 17-of-35 from downtown (48.6%), and another 18-of-20 from the charity stripe (90.0%). Furthermore, they appeared to get stronger as they game progressed, starting fourth quarter on a stunning 15-2 run to wrestle control from the hosts, who they shot 11-of-16 against in the period (68.8%). Earning a split before returning to Miami was viewed as a major victory for the team, though that optimism quickly turned to pessimism as the Heat struggled to mount a similar performance in front of their home crowd at Kaseya Center. Indeed, this is one that Spoelstra & Co would like to have back; the hosts shot just 37.0% from the field, including 11-of-35 from three (31.4%) and 15-of-19 from the free-throw line (78.9%). Miami committed just FOUR turnovers in this one, bringing their total in the series to a mere twenty-three, but rather than reflect an efficient offense it has been indicative of one that has been outclassed. So, where did things go wrong, you ask? Energy, folks. It’s all about energy, or in the case of the Heat, a lack thereof. In Wednesday night’s debacle, the home side shot a remarkably poor 35% at the rim and just 43% on two-point field goals, all reflecting their lack of energy and aggression, which is needed to attack the rim. No, Spoelstra’s unit seemed content bombing away against the much larger Nuggets, whose superior size has been a problem all series. It’s not often that you’re going to win a game in which you’re outrebounded 58-33, certainly not in the Finals, with that same notion applying to point in the paint, where they were outscored 60-34. Another issue that is plaguing the Heat is that despite taking great care of the basketball, they’re poor shooting has led Denver to a plethora of opportunities in transition, as their opponent is running down court off nearly every missed shot (of which there have been many). And that is the biggest reason that they’ve been at such a disadvantage offensively; the Nuggets have shot a stunning 51.3% from the field in this series despite netting just 32.9% of their attempts from three, where they’ve been outscored by FIFTY-ONE points thus far. Countering that, the difference for Denver has been in the paint (+38), on the break (+18), and at the stripe (+22), where they have established considerable advantages through these three games. It may sound too simplistic, but the only way that they are going to get back into this series is if they find a way to play with the same energy that they had in Game Two, for they need to mix things up and get to the rim and make Denver work on the defensive end. After proving to be so brilliant earlier in these playoffs, (five-time All-NBA Swingman) Jimmy Butler has had his struggles in this series, averaging 20.7 points on 42.7% shooting, though has been caught up in defending the aforementioned Murray through large parts of the affair. (Versatile Forward) Bam Adebayo has had the toughest job in making the aforementioned Jokic work on both ends of the hardwood, despite giving up a wealth of size to the Serian. Adebayo (pictured above) is at his best creating in space and will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing Game Three in which despite finishing with twenty-two points and seventeen rebounds, shot just 7-of-21 from the field (33.3%). Spoelstra will also be calling for more production from his supporting cast, with various members turning in brilliant performances, including the likes of Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, and Kevin Love, who together combined for FIFTY-SEVEN points on 18-of-36 shooting (50.0%) over the weekend, only to offer a more subdued twenty-five points on just 8-of-28 shooting (28.5%) on Wednesday night. Vincent was particularly dreadful, for after leading the team with twenty-three points in Game Two, was saddled with foul trouble en route to finishing with seven points on 2-of-10 shooting (20.0%). From a betting perspective, the Heat failed to meet bettors’ standards in the regular season in amassing a 31-49-2 record against the spread, only to have completely flipped the script in these playoffs where they have covered the number in FIFTEEN of their twenty-three postseason outings (.652). Miami is both 5-5 straight-up and against the spread over their last ten games overall, and now find themselves in a must-win scenario at home where they have covered the line in six of ten contests. As we’ve come to recognize of over the last seven weeks, they’ve really earned their money as underdogs, which as an eighth seed is a role that they’ve played many times in these playoffs; Butler & Co are a commanding 12-5 against the spread during this postseason when receiving points from the oddsmakers, including five outright victories in their last eight contests. With that said, they’ve rarely enjoyed success in either regard when it comes to facing the Nuggets, who they have lost all but three of their last fifteen meetings against, while failing to cover the spread in eleven of their past thirteen encounters. On the injury front, Spoelstra poured more cold water on the status of (2021-2022 Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro making his return from a broken right hand that has sidelined him throughout the majority of this playoff run. At this point, the coaching staff doesn’t expect the sharpshooter to take part in these Finals, which is a shame given that his team could really use his firepower as their offense stalled once again on Wednesday night.