Our 2023 NFL Preview takes us from the desert to the dirty south, where the Falcons look to pounce upon what for all intents and purposes appears to be a division up for grabs. Last season, Atlanta finished last in a largely mediocre NFC South, though at 7-10 remained in contention for the playoffs up until the final weekend of the campaign and after another offseason of adding weapons on both sides of the football, expect to make a sizeable leap in the standings. (General Manager) Terry Fontenot and (Head Coach) Arthur Smith splashed plenty of cash in Free Agency and added one of the most impressive playmakers in the Draft in the form of (Rookie Tailback) Bijan Robinson. Can they put it all together though? Let’s a take a stroll through the ATL and ascertain whether or not these dirty birds have what it takes soar to new heights…
Freaks on a Leash
Now in their third offseason together, Fontenot and Smith have gone about rebuilding the Falcons in a largely unconventional manner. Rather than search far and wide for a Franchise Quarterback despite picking early in each of the last three Drafts, they have instead opted to build around the game’s most important position, adding a number of freakish offensive talents to their roster. In 2021, they selected Kyle Pitts fourth overall, the highest that a Tight End has ever been picked. A year later, they tabbed (Receiver) Drake London with the eighth overall pick. Both pass-catchers are huge, standing 6′-4″ or taller, with each enjoying success in the early stages of their careers in Atlanta; as a rookie, Pitts hauled in sixty-eight catches on a whopping 110 targets for 1,026 yards and a touchdown before conceding opportunities to London last season, with the USC product reeling in seventy-two receptions for 866 yards and four scores. This past April, the dirty birds selected arguably the best player in the Draft, picking (Tailback) Bijan Robinson eighth overall. The highest-rated Tailback prospect in nearly a decade, Robinson (pictured above) rushed for a whopping 3,410 yards and thirty-three touchdowns in thirty-one games at Texas, and checking in at 6′-0″, 220 lbs, packs plenty of power, burst, and speed within that frame. Those of you who remember the success that Smith had in Tennesse building a rushing powerhouse around the talents of Derrick Henry can see clearly what he and Fontenot are putting together. Ironically, this is something that the Falcons were VERY effective at last season; simply put, no team ran the ball more than Atlanta (32.9 attempts per game) en route to churning out 159.9 yards per game (3rd Overall), with (young Tailback) Tyler Allgeier totaling 1,035 yards despite starting just seven games and the ever-versatile Cordarrelle Patterson adding another 695 yards of his own. With a prospect like Robinson joining the unit, this group could become downright terrifying for opposing defenses. And as fate would have it, Robinson is wearing no. 7, formerly of Michael Vick, which should inform all of us as to what kind of athlete that they think he is…
Growth Decree
Of course, there is still a glaring hole in Atlanta’s offense, and thanks to that aforementioned team-building approach they remain one of the few teams in the NFL without a concrete answer at Quarterback. The Falcons did select a QB in the 2022 Draft and his name is Desmond Ridder, who was the second of his position to hear his name called, albeit at seventy-fourth overall (third round). An experienced and decorated starter in college, Ridder (pictured to the right) didn’t see a lot of action last season, starting only the final four games; he handled himself well despite largely managing the offense, completing 63.5% of his passes for 177.0 yards per game on 5.44 net yards per attempt, with two touchdowns and zero interceptions, equating to a QBR of 49.8, and most importantly winning two of those starts. Evidently, Smith and Fontenot saw enough out of the 23-year-old to resist the temptation of drafting another Quarterback with the pick that they ultimately used to select the aforementioned Robinson, while opting against using a large portion of their considerable cap space to add a veteran passer via trade or free agency. Granted, they did acquire a veteran insurance policy in the form of Taylor Heinicke, who had started twenty-four games over the past two seasons for Washington, even leading them to the playoffs in 2021. Though he is both streaky and limited athletically, the 30-year-old Atlanta native is a gamer and at the very least should provide his younger teammate with the kind of competition to push him forward. With a punishing ground game and a plethora of super-sized targets in the Receiving Corps, it isn’t hard to envision Ridder showing serious growth this season, and even if he doesn’t, it also isn’t hard to picture Heinicke putting them to good use either, with each scenario likely spelling success for the dirty birds, though there is still one more piece of the equation that has yet to be balanced…
A Defensive Revolution
Through their first two offseasons together, Fontenot and Smith spent the bulk of their resources in transitioning an offense that had long been dominated by a wide-open passing attack into a more physical, run-heavy unit. Unfortunately, that revolution neglected the need for a similar changing of the seasons on defense, where the Falcons have been one of the league’s lesser sides for years. Last season, Atlanta finished twenty-seventh in total defense (362.1), twenty-third in points allowed (22.7), twenty-seventh in takeaways (17), thirty-first on third down (45.9%), and next-to-last in sacks (21). Apart from (veteran Nose Tackle) Grady Jarrett and (emerging Cornerback) A.J. Terrell, this unit lacked both talent and depth, even under the tutelage of (venerable Defensive Coordinator) Dean Pees. With Pees retired (again), Smith tabbed Ryan Nielsen as his successor, after the latter co-coordinated New Orleans’ defense last season. Oh, and the bulk of their near $70 million in cap space was spent adding veteran help on this side of the ball; Fontenot and Smith acquired the services of (Defensive Linemen) Calais Campbell, Eddie Goldman, and David Onyemata, (Edge-Rusher) Bud Dupree, (Cornerbacks) Mike Hughes and Jeff Okudah, along with (Safeties) Tre Flowers and Jessie Bates via Free Agency and trade. Furthermore, the club addressed their needs in the Draft, selecting (Defensive End) Zach Harrison and (Cornerback) Clark Phillips in the third and fourth rounds respectively. Onyemata arrives from the Saints having excelled under Nielsen’s watch last season, while Okudah, the third overall pick in 2020, has loads of talent just waiting to be tapped into despite a rash of injuries with the Lions. As for Bates (pictured above), the centerfielder was an integral part of Cincinnati’s stingy defense, logging three or more interceptions in all but one of his five seasons with the Bengals, including a career-best four picks in 2022. With so many new faces, there is bound to be a transitional period for Atlanta in this regard, but if these birds of prey can ascend to the middle of the pack, then they should have as good a shot at winning the NFC South as any of the other three teams in the division.
Projected Finish: 9-8
Entering their third year of a fairly substantial rebuild, the Falcons have the look of a team that is on the verge of coming out of the other side in good shape, even if they still have question marks at Quarterback. Simply put, it is very difficult to win championships without at least a steady hand at that position, but at this stage of their development, Atlanta is certainly good enough to win games, particularly if Robinson lives up to expectations and the defense takes a leap with so many veteran additions. This team has been surprisingly competitive under Smith, who has proven to be more than a solid tactician despite regularly lacking in overall talent and depth. With the investments made in the Spring, he and Fontenot may start feeling a bit of heat from (longtime Owner) Arthur Blank if they fail to reach the playoffs, for after all, three years is an eternity in the NFL. However, the NFC South may be the most wide-open division in the league, and these birds now have the talent on paper to contend for the playoffs as a division-winner or as a wild card.
