Our 2023 NFL Preview travels to Mile High, where the Broncos look to kick off a brand-new era of football and put the last seven years of ineptitude in the rearview mirror. After hitting rock bottom last season, the Walton-Penner Family alongside (General Manager) George Paton sought to revolutionize the franchise, jettisoning the previous coaching staff after just one year in charge, and hiring (former Saints’ Head Coach) Sean Payton to lead the rebuild. With that said, the former Super Bowl-winning skipper has quite the task ahead of him in repairing the culture around a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2015, while resurrecting the career of (former Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Russell Wilson following a disastrous first campaign in Denver. Will Payton and Wilson hit it off? Will the offense bounce back after a last-place finish? Let’s take a ride through the Rocky Mountains for some insight into these ponies, shall we?
In Payton We Trust
Since claiming the franchise’s third Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl 50, the Broncos have been mired in mediocrity with a record of 44-70 (.385) over the last seven seasons. The club thought that they had found the right man to lead them in a positive direction in the form of (former Head Coach) Nathaniel Hackett, though couldn’t have been more wrong, as he oversaw a team that crashed to an embarrassing 5-12 finish. Making matters worse was how Hackett, a longtime offensive assistant in Green Bay, utterly failed to motivate any kind of growth out of what became the NFL’s most rudderless offense, ranking dead-last in points scored at 16.9 per game. Furthermore, he did a dreadful job of managing (9-time Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Russell Wilson (much more on him in a bit), who floundered in his first season in Mile High following a high-profile trade that saw a treasure trove of draft picks and players sent to Seattle in exchange for the 34-year-old passer. As a result, Hackett was fired with two games left in the season, allowing Paton & Co to start their search, eventually leading them to Sean Payton (pictured above). Needless to say, this was a home f@#$%^& run for the Broncos for a variety of reasons, for after burning through four different Head Coaches since 2015, managed to come to terms with one of the league’s best. First, there was nobody on the market that could match Payton’s CV, which includes a sterling 152-89 record (.631) over the course of fifteen years with the Saints, leading them to NINE playoff appearances, SEVEN division titles, and the franchise’s first-ever Lombardy Trophy in 2010. Second, there are few offensive minds greater than that of the 59-year-old, who regularly presided over some of the league’s best attacks in New Orleans, ranking in the top-10 in total offense every season from 2006 to 2019 and finishing number one overall on SIX occasions. Lastly, his work with Quarterbacks has been lauded by many; Payton is credited with Drew Brees becoming a record-breaking Hall of Fame Quarterback, while also getting the most out of the likes of Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, and Taysom Hill. Furthermore, this guy arrives with a cache around the league that his predecessor simply didn’t possess, meaning that he shouldn’t have any issues changing the culture. Basically, it is HIS show, and anyone who is resistant to getting on the proverbial bus will be left at the park & ride, even Wilson, whose resurrection becomes his number one priority.
Resurrecting Russ
The unmitigated disaster that was Russell Wilson’s first season with the Broncos is as fascinating as it is damaging, for very few could have foreseen things going from being so hopeful to so hopeless in such a short period of time. Simply put, Denver NEEDED a Quarterback, swinging and missing on a plethora of passers since Peyton Manning retired following that aforementioned Super Bowl triumph, and landing someone the caliber of Wilson (pictured to the right) represented a breakthrough on multiple fronts. The perennial Pro-Bowler had been linked with a move out of Seattle for a few years after having led the Seahawks to their most prosperous era in franchise history, including a 104-53-1 record (.658) over ten seasons with EIGHT playoff appearances, FOUR division titles, and two trips to the Super Bowl, highlighted by their first-ever Lombardi Trophy in 2014. With that said, the growing narrative in the Pacific Northwest was that he was consistently held back by the coaching staff, who had long favored a more pragmatic approach in comparison to their Quarterback, who simply wanted to cook. Meanwhile, armed with a perennially strong defense, the Broncos needed a passer who could in fact cook, eventually leading to one of the most lopsided deals in NFL history and NOT in favor of the ponies; Denver sent a pair of first round picks, two second round picks, and a fifth-round pick along with three different players to Seattle in exchange for Wilson, who the club inked to a mammoth five-year, $242.5 million contract extension. Unfortunately, he didn’t come close to living up to expectations in Mile High; in fifteen starts, he completed a career-low 60.5% of his passes for 3,524 yards on another career-low 5.87 net yards per attempt, with just sixteen touchdowns in comparison to eleven interceptions for a QBR of 36.7, which you guessed it, also checks in at a career worst. The aforementioned Hackett opened up the playbook to let Wilson cook, only for the veteran to never become acclimated to it, evidenced by his thirteen turnovers and NFL-high FIFTY-FIVE sacks. And thus, the Broncos are praying that Payton can in fact put the 34-year-old back together again and get the most out of the latter years of his career. Remember, Denver owes Wilson well over $100 million over the next six seasons, making it nigh impossible to trade or outright release him, making this marriage between coach and Quarterback one to absolutely watch moving forward.
Putting the D Back in Denver
With all the talk of Payton and Wilson, it is easy to overlook the happenings on defense, where the Broncos are undergoing another revolution. Since winning Super Bowl 50, Denver has largely been borderline elite on this side of the football, though regularly hung out to dry by their teammates on offense. From 2015 to 2021, they ranked twelfth or better in total defense four times, while finishing tenth or better in points allowed on as many occasions during that stretch. Hackett got many things wrong in his lone year in Mile High, but leaving the defense to its own devices was his only win. Last season, they ranked fourteenth in points allowed (21.1) and seventh in total defense (320.0), along with second on third down (34.1%) and seventh in the red zone (51.1%), despite trading Pro-Bowler and former fifth-overall pick Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins midway through the campaign. (All-Pro Cornerback) Patrick Surtain II (pictured above) emerged as an elite Defensive Back despite being just a rookie, snaring a pair of interceptions with ten passes defended, while (veteran Safety) Justin Simmons led the NFL with six interceptions despite missing five games due to injury. Ironically, Payton’s choice to run the defense this season is a familiar face, with Vance Joseph returning to the franchise where he served as Head Coach from 2017 to 2018. Granted, the 50-year-old was far from successful during his first stint in Denver (11-21, .344), but he made sure that the defense continued to be among the league’s best, ranking third in total defense in 2017. After being relieved of his duties, Joseph spent the last four years as the Defensive Coordinator for the Cardinals, taking a group that finished dead-last in total yards allowed in his first year on the job, to one that ranked thirteenth and eleventh respectively, before crashing to twenty-first last season. Without much draft capital thanks to the Wilson trade to add new pieces to this defense, the club was forced to scour the free agent market, signing (veteran Defensive Ends) Frank Clark and Zach Allen, with the latter being personally coached by Joseph in Arizona.
Projected Finish: 8-9
After crashing to a 5-12 finish and making yet another coaching change, the Broncos appear to have finally found their man in the form of Payton, who has quite the task on his hands in picking up the pieces of an offense that despite having a number of weapons, performed well below expectations, none more so than Wilson. Given his previous experience working with a variety of different Quarterbacks, there is reason to believe that this marriage between coach and QB can indeed be a fruitful one. However, as we’ve stated over and over again, the AFC is a treacherous landscape, particularly the AFC West, where the other three residents all represent problems for the ponies, who they have mustered a disappointing 12-30 record (.285) against over the last seven years. Though we expect to see progress under Payton’s guidance, it’s difficult to see Denver doing a complete about-face and advancing to the playoffs after a seven-year absence, but improving by three wins should see them on the fringes of postseason contention.
