Our 2023 NFL Preview takes us from Mile High to the Motor City, where the Lions look to make another sizeable leap after a watershed campaign which saw them in playoff contention late in the season for the first time in, well, quite some time. Indeed, Detroit had finished dead-last in the NFC North in each of the previous four seasons, including (Head Coach) Dan Campbell’s first year on the job, though it has now become clear that the frustrating process of laying that foundation has paid off handsomely in his second season, as these cats improved by SIX games, the joint-most of any team in the NFL in 2022. Now, for the first time in years, the club faces legitimate expectations to end a six-year postseason drought, with a number of factors in play that could facilitate that actually happening. Will (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff continue his belated growth? How long will (Offensive Coordinator) Ben Johnson remain in Detroit? Can the defense make the same leap that the offense did a year ago? Let’s drive through Motown to ascertain on what is in store for the Lions…
The Second Act of Jared Goff
By now we all know the story of Jared Goff, the former number one overall pick who quarterbacked the Rams to Super Bowl LIII, only to perform miserably on the grandest of stages, eventually leading to his unceremonious exit two years later after he was benched in favor of a third string QB in a playoff game. A falling out with (Rams Head Coach) Sean McVay was the final straw, as Los Angeles packaged Goff, along with a pair of first-round picks, to Detroit in exchange for (longtime Lions Quarterback) Matthew Stafford, who in turn helped lead his new franchise to glory in Super Bowl LVI. Meanwhile, Goff (pictured above) hit rock bottom in his first season in Motown, completing 67.2% of his passes for 3,245 yards on just 5.60 net yards per attempt, with nineteen touchdowns opposed to eight interceptions and a QBR of 39.5, going winless in his first eleven starts for a team that would eventually finish 3-13-1 and drafting second overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. However, rather than attempt to find a new franchise passer, Campbell, alongside (General Manager) Brad Holmes, opted to stick with the 28-year-old after seeing some late glimpses of the player that he was earlier in his career. Thankfully for all parties involved, they were correct in their belief that Goff could not only survive outside of McVay’s shadow, but THRIVE; last season, he was selected to his third Pro-Bowl (and first since 2018), completing 65.1% of his passes for 4,438 yards on a much-improved 7.02 net yards per attempt, with twenty-nine touchdowns in comparison to just seven interceptions, causing his QBR to skyrocket to 61.1. Campbell and Holmes have done a tremendous job of building a quality supporting cast around their Quarterback, including a physically imposing Offensive Line and a diverse Receiving Corps littered with pass-catching weapons, though the most significant thing they did was instilling the requisite confidence in Goff to attack without fear of failure. Unlike his final campaign in L.A. and first in Detroit, the California product was far more comfortable in attacking downfield, with 4,105 intended air yards in 2022, nearly 1,000 more than in his debut season a year ago, while logging 2,151 completed air yards, which is 661 yards more than in 2021. This is indicative of not just better protection (his pressure percentage decreased from 24.6% to 19.1% on nearly 100 more passing attempts), but an altogether different approach offensively, which is where Ben Johnson comes into the equation, with the Offensive Coordinator becoming a hot name within the coaching ranks as a result.
Making Beautiful Music
Goff’s revival is intrinsically linked to the rise of Ben Johnson, whose work with the Pro-Bowler has put his name on the coaching map, even earning him a number of head coaching interviews in the offseason. One of the few holdovers from the previous coaching staff, the 37-year-old has made the most of the trust that Campbell has placed in him, bringing an aggressive mentality to the offensive side of the football, along with some sorely needed creativity and balance. Over the previous four seasons, the attack ranked no better than eighteenth in points scored and seventeenth in total offense, though in 2022 managed to undergo quite the renaissance after opening up the playbook. Detroit finished fifth in points scored (26.6), fourth in total offense (389.6), eighth in passing yards (261.4), fifth in net yards per pass (7.0), eleventh in rushing yards (128.2), fifteenth in yards per rush (4.5), fourteenth on third down (40.8%), and fourth in red zone efficiency (66.2%). A major reason for their success was the good care that they took of the football, for no team in the NFL committed fewer turnovers than these felines, who coughed up the pigskin on just fifteen occasions. Goff aside, Johnson had a helluva impact on a number of other players, including (veteran Tailback) Jamaal Williams, who rushed for a career-high 1,006 yards and led the league with SEVENTEEN rushing touchdowns, while (emerging Receiver) Amon-Ra St. Brown was selected to his first Pro-Bowl on the strength of 106 receptions for 1,161 yards and six scores. And after this past offseason, it is clear that the young play-caller will need to keep developing the talent on hand, for after trading away (former Pro-Bowl Tight End) T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings midseason, the club parted ways with a number of notable players on this side of the football, including the aforementioned Williams alongside (fellow Tailback) D’Andre Swift, and (veteran Wideout) D.J. Chark, who totaled thirty catches for 502 yards and three touchdowns in eleven games. Holmes and Campbell addressed replacing these holes via last April’s NFL Draft, selecting (Alabama Tailback) Jahmyr Gibbs and (Iowa Tight End) Sam LaPorta in the first and second rounds respectively. Big things are expected of one of last year’s pair of first rounders, (explosive Receiver) Jameson Williams, who missed the first eleven games rehabbing from a torn ACL and will thus be suspended for the first six contests this season for running afoul of the NFL’s gambling policy.
Putting the D Back in Detroit
After the offense took a major leap last season, Campbell and Holmes will be looking for the defense to exhibit similar growth, though it remains to be seen if that will in fact happen this season. We all know by now that the advantages of today’s NFL skew heavily to the offensive side of the football, making it more and more difficult for a young defense to find its footing. Last season, the Lions were downright bad in this regard, yielding 25.1 points per game (28th Overall) and the most total yards in the league at 392.3 per contest. Furthermore, they shipped the third-most passing yards (245.8) and yards per carry (5.2) in the NFL, in addition to relinquishing the fourth-most rushing yards (146.5), while finishing thirtieth on third down (45.1%). Campbell and Holmes found a keeper in the form of (Defensive End) Aidan Hutchinson (pictured to the right), whom they selected with the second overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Michigan product started all seventeen games, totaling fifty-two tackles, nine for loss, fifteen QB hits, thirty pressures, and 9.5 sacks, while also snaring THREE interceptions, which is rather remarkable for someone at his position. However, if last season taught us anything, it is that there is still a need for more talent on this unit, with Detroit making a number of moves via trade, Free Agency, and the Draft. First, the club parted ways with disappointing Cornerback, Jeff Okudah, whom they drafted third overall back in 2020, in a deal with the Falcons, while adding (former Steelers Cornerback) Cameron Sutton and (versatile Eagles Safety) C.J. Gardner Johnson via Free Agency and drafting (Alabama Defensive Back) Brian Branch in the second round to bolster the Secondary. Simply put, Gardner-Johnson is a HUGE get for the Lions; the 25-year-old can be deployed in a plethora of different positions and was a sizeable part of the Eagles’ run to Super Bowl LVII, leading the league with SIX interceptions. There is little doubt that his familiarity with Campbell, who was an assistant in New Orleans when he was drafted back in 2019, played a role in his acquisition. Detroit used their other pick in the first round to fortify the Linebacker Corps with the selection of (Iowa Linebacker) Jack Campbell, who excelled in coverage during his four seasons with the Hawkeyes. (Defensive Coordinator) Aaron Glenn has more talent to work with than in his first two years on the job, and though these new pieces are far better fits for his scheme than their predecessors, it remains to be seen how much they will improve.
Projected Finish: 10-7
Last season was a major turning point for the Lions, who improved by six games in their second season under the guidance of Campbell and Holmes, thanks in large part to an explosive offense that took them to the precipice of the playoffs. Keeping Johnson in house was a coup for Detroit, who will see a makeover in the Backfield, while new pieces arrive to keep the passing game firing on all cylinders. However, if these cats are to actually return to the postseason, it will take similar growth from a defense that ranked dead-last a year ago in total yards allowed and in the bottom third of the NFL in a slew of other categories. The club added a number of interesting pieces to help promote said improvement, though it remains to be seen if they will be able to put it altogether, particularly early in the season as they run the gauntlet against some of the league’s high-powered attacks (they face reigning Super Bowl Champion, Kansas City in the season opener). If this unit can rise to a respectable ranking, then these Lions are likely to find themselves playing well into January for the first time since 2016, taking advantage of an NFC is that is particularly top-heavy with room to maneuver below.
