Our 2023 NFL Preview stays in the AFC South, as we travel from Houston to Indianapolis, where the Colts are also starting over after a miserable campaign. Simply put, 2022 was nothing short of a disaster for a club that endured a similar calamity a year beforehand., though this one was much worse. Stumbling out of the opening block, everything that could go wrong for these thoroughbreds did, as (reigning rushing champion) Jonathan Taylor struggled all year with lower leg maladies, while the Offensive Line crumbled, and (veteran Quarterback) Matt Ryan, their fourth free agent import at the position in as many years, turned in what was by far and away the worst season of his stellar career. Of course, (former Head Coach) Frank Reich was relieved of his duties after just nine weeks, with (longtime Owner) Jim Irsay stunning everyone and appointing (former Offensive Lineman) Jeff Saturday as the Interim Coach for the remainder of the campaign. Indy has now effectively hit the reset button, with Irsay and (General Manager) Chris Ballard choosing (former Eagles Offensive Coordinator) Shane Steichen to lead them back to winning ways, while finally looking to the draft for a long-term answer at Quarterback, selecting Anthony Richardson fourth overall. Will Indy right the ship? Will Richardson hit the ground running? Let’s take a walk through Lucas Oil Field and find out, shall we?
Picking up the Pieces
As we detailed in the opening, the Colts endured an embarrassing 2022 campaign, finishing a dismal 4-12-1 and missing the playoffs for the third time in four years. Though many around the league felt that Reich didn’t deserve to take the fall as early as he did, certainly not in favor of Saturday, the results simply were what they were, for something was seriously broken within the team, and it was time for somebody else to pick up the pieces. And it is with that said that after a lengthy search, that Irsay and Ballard landed upon Shane Steichen, who was fresh off of helping lead the Eagles to the precipice of glory in Super Bowl LVII. Needless to say, there is an awful lot to like about this guy; Steichen (pictured above) is credited for revolutionizing Philadelphia’s offense over the last two seasons, while evolving Jalen Hurts into the MVP candidate that he became last season. Furthermore, he is also responsible for the early growth shown by (Chargers Quarterback) Justin Herbert during his stellar rookie campaign three years ago. It’s clear that the 38-year-old can coach the position, while also showing a willingness to get creative and craft an effective scheme to the strengths of his Quarterback. During the beginning of Hurts’ career in Philly, many around the league lamented his weaknesses as the coaching staff tried to turn him into something that he wasn’t. Fortunately for all parties involved, Steichen would convince his boss, Nick Sirianni, who is ironically a longtime disciple of Reich, to abandon a conventional approach and utilize more RPOs (Run-Pass Options), bludgeoning their opponents for the next two seasons. Last year, Steichen oversaw an offense that ranked third in both points scored (28.1) and total yards (404.3), including ninth in passing (256.7) despite attempting the tenth-fewest passes (536), and fifth in rushing (147.6), while finishing fourth on third down (45.9%) and third in red zone efficiency (67.8%). As for Hurts, he went from completing 61.3% of his passes for 209.6 yards per game on 6.54 net yards per attempt, with sixteen touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions and a QBR of 48.5 in 2021 to connecting on 66.5% of his throws for an average of 246.7 yards on 6.97 net yards per attempt with twenty-two scores in comparison to just six picks and a much-improved QBR of 66.4. Furthermore, he went on to rush for at least 700 yards and ten touchdowns in each of his two seasons under Steichen’s watch. And thus, the first-time Head Coach will be expected to put together an effective attack with the pieces at his disposal, which certainly leans towards a punishing ground game, all the while working his magic on (Rookie Quarterback) Anthony Richardson, whom the franchise hopes with develop into the answer at the position that they’ve been desperately seeking since Andrew Luck’s abrupt retirement in 2019.
Raising Richardson
By now we all know the story of the Colts when it comes to Quarterbacks, for after enjoying over a decade of success with (Hall of Famer) Peyton Manning and transitioning immediately into a new era headlined by (former number one overall pick) Andrew Luck, the franchise was utterly @#$%^& after Luck’s shocking retirement shortly before the beginning of the 2019 campaign. Since that point, Indianapolis has fielded a different starting Quarterback in each of the past four seasons, most of which have either been journeymen or veterans long past their primes. From Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers, to Carson Wentz, to Matt Ryan, it has been a proverbial revolving door at Lucas Oil Stadium, with the results rather uninspiring as the ponies have just one playoff appearance during that time (2020) with a nary a victory to show for their troubles. So, it was inevitable that Indy would look to the draft for a long-term answer at the game’s most important position, particularly given they were selecting fourth overall with a number of elite prospects expected to be taken early. And thus, Irsay, Ballard, and Steichen agreed to select (Florida product) Anthony Richardson to be their leading man. Needless to say, there wasn’t a more physically gifted Quarterback in the draft class, with the 21-year-old checking in at a herculean 6′-4″ and 232 pounds, while testing through the roof at the Scouting Combine. With his elite size, physicality, arm strength, athleticism, and speed for the position, this kid is literally a treasure chest of potential for a coaching staff to cultivate. However, there are concerns over his experience and wildly inconsistent play during his lone season as the starter in Gainesville; in twelve starts, Richardson completed just 53.8% of his passes for 2,549 yards on 7.8 yards per attempt, with seventeen touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions, with four different games in which he connected on fewer than 50% of his attempts. Simply put, the rookie is RAW in every sense of the word, though the same cannot be said of his ability to make plays with his feet, rushing for 654 yards and nine more scores, including a 106-yard, 3-TD performance in the opener against Utah and 109 yards and a touchdown against LSU. Given Steichen’s success developing the aforementioned Hurts, there is no question that he is the right man to oversee Richardson’s growth. However, there is a legitimate question as to how long it will be before their efforts bear fruit; Indy added (veteran Quarterback) Gardner Minshew to serve as a mentor and bridge to the rookie, which is a role that he knows well having performed it in Jacksonville alongside Trevor Lawrence and recently playing under Steichen and behind Hurts in Philly last season. The offense should be in good hands until Richardson is ready to run, for the 27-year-old is 8-16 in twenty-four career starts, completing 62.8% of his passes for 207.3 yards per game on 6.22 net yards per attempt, with forty-four touchdowns opposed to fifteen interceptions.
Taylor’s Revenge
Matt Ryan’s struggles at Quarterback aside, the biggest disappointment for the Colts last year had to be Jonathan Taylor, fresh off an All-Pro campaign as the NFL’s leading rusher. In 2021, Taylor (pictured to the right) led the league in carries (332), rushing yards (1,811), and rushing touchdowns (18), along with total yards from scrimmage (2,171) and total touchdowns (20). His emergence as a true three-down Tailback made the idea of bringing in the aging Ryan all the more palatable, for there wasn’t a team in the NFL more ready-made for a game manager at Quarterback than Indianapolis. While that idea looked great on paper, it quickly became an issue for several reasons. First and foremost, Taylor simply couldn’t stay healthy, with a high ankle sprain and turf toe slowing him down throughout the campaign. The 24-year-old churned out just 865 yards on 192 carries in eleven games, logging a whole fewer yard per carry (4.5) than he did in the previous season. However, it wasn’t all his fault, for one of the best Offensive Lines in the league turned into a sieve overnight, with standouts such as (All-Pro Guard) Quentin Nelson and (Center) Ryan Kelly performing well below their typical standards. Lastly, what should have been a secondary role for Ryan turned into one in which the 38-year-old was forced to carry the attack, which he was utterly incapable of, leading to a career-low fourteen touchdowns and thirteen interceptions, 6.6 yards per attempt and just 9.9 yards per completion (down from 7.1 and 10.6 in 2021), and a net yards per attempt of 5.55, which is by far and away the lowest of his career. Sure, being benched for a number of games only to return under the leadership of Saturday with literally nothing to play for had a hand in his struggles, but at the end of the day, it’s hard not to feel that the veteran passer was just out of gas. Now, with Steichen in charge, you can bet that his first order of business will be getting the run game back to full strength, which means returning Taylor to his previous All-Pro levels. This guy is still young enough to get better, and the Colts will be counting on him to do so, for he and the rest of the Backfield will be carrying the attack in the early going, particularly as the aforementioned Richardson gets more acclimated to the playbook and speed of the professional game. Philadelphia ranked first and fifth in rushing offense during their two years under Steichen’s watch, with the likes of Miles Sanders enjoying a career campaign of 259 carries for 1,269 yards and eleven touchdowns in 2022, which he parlayed into a lucrative contract with the Panthers in Free Agency. This roster has many similar pieces for the new coaching staff to work with, which could lead to a resurgence in Indy this Fall.
Projected Finish: 6-11
If the final few weeks of the 2021 campaign saw the Colts implode, then the 2022 season served as extended nuclear fallout, for everything that could have gone wrong for the franchise happened. For better or worse, it forced Irsay and Ballard to rethink their approach and hit the reset button, luring Steichen away from Philadelphia, where he became one of the most sought-after assistant coaches in the NFL. Given his body of work with the Eagles, there is reason to believe that he will be able to get this team back on track, which means resurrecting both the Offensive Line and Taylor, who were supposed to be their strongest links last season. Was it simply an off-year for them or a sign of worse things to come? Either way, he will also be charged with the development of Richardson, who despite being raw in every sense of the term, possesses sky-high potential that could seriously pay off in the future. And it’s with that said, that we feel Indy is probably a year (or two) away from re-establishing themselves as a playoff team, particularly in the AFC, which if you’ve been paying attention, we continue to describe as treacherous landscape.