Our 2023 NFL Preview stays in the AFC West, where the Raiders hope to bounce back after reshuffling the proverbial deck following a disappointing campaign in which they missed the postseason for the EIGHTEENTH time over the last two decades. It is the beginning of year number two in Sin City for (Head Coach) Josh McDaniels and (General Manager) Dave Ziegler, and somehow it feels like they’re still cleaning up the mess left over from the disastrous reign of the previous regime. The club bid farewell to (longtime Quarterback) Derek Carr and welcomed in (former 49er) Jimmy Garoppolo, who began his career with McDaniels and Ziegler in New England. Though he may be a better fit for the system, is Jimmy G the solution under center or more so a bridge to the next passer? What will Las Vegas do without (reigning Rushing Champion) Josh Jacobs if he decides to hold out into the regular season? Will the Defense ever get any better? Let’s take a ride down the strip and see what is in store for the Silver & Black, shall we?
Reunited
It is not uncommon for Head Coaches to acquire players that they have a history working with, particularly in the case of positions in which previous experience within a system is a plus, none more so than Quarterback. This is the case with Jimmy Garoppolo’s arrival in Las Vegas, which was predicted by many pundits after it was made clear that his tenure in San Francisco was over. Of course, Jimmy G enjoyed quite a run with the 49ers, leading them to a pair of NFC Championship Games and an appearance in Super Bowl LIV, while winning a stellar 69% of his starts. However, injuries have played a major factor in his time in the league, with the veteran missing THIRTY-ONE games over the course of his six seasons with the Niners, including the final six of 2022 due to a broken foot. Meanwhile, the Raiders just completed a disappointing 6-11 finish in their first season under McDaniels, with the play of the aforementioned Carr being cited as one of the reasons that the team struggled to finish so many games. Simply put, the franchise’s all-time leader in most passing categories proved to be an awkward fit for McDaniels’ nuanced system, leading him to bench the four-time Pro-Bowler for the final two games of the season, before outright releasing him in the Spring after no suitors were found on the trade market. As for Garoppolo (pictured above), he and his new Head Coach spent the first three years of his career together in New England, where the Eastern Illinois product made a name for himself in place of a suspended Tom Brady back in 2016, eventually leading to a deal with the 49ers a year later. Is the 31-year-old a better option than Carr? That is certainly debatable, despite Garoppolo enjoying far more postseason success than his predecessor. However, the real question is what the club can expect from the Quarterback moving forward? Injuries have plagued Garoppolo throughout his career, and news broke back in May that he delayed surgery on that broken foot until well after the conclusion of the season, placing his timetable to get back on the field in time for offseason activities in jeopardy. In fact, Las Vegas could have voided his contract altogether if he had failed a physical by the end of July (which thankfully didn’t happen). Now, they’ll be hoping that he can prove to be a much better fit for McDaniels’ machinations, though given the state of the rest of the roster, he could very well be nothing more than a high-end placeholder for the next passer…
The Great Holdout
Coming into last season, the Raiders were expected to produce one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, what with Pro-Bowl talents such as Carr, (Tight End) Darren Waller, and (Tailback) Josh Jacobs, along with the addition of (three-time All-Pro Receiver) Davante Adams, whom they acquired via trade with the Packers. Giving McDaniels, who has long been hailed as one of the top offensive masterminds in the league, these kinds of weapons to play with was sure to make his first year with the franchise a success, right? Well, while they were far from bad, they weren’t exactly prolific either; Las Vegas ranked twelfth overall in both points scored (23.2) and total offense (367.1), while placing sixteenth on third down (39.9%) and a disappointing twenty-sixth in red zone efficiency (47.9%), despite totaling the eighth-fewest turnovers in the league (21). As we touched upon earlier, Carr regressed mightily under McDaniels, completing just 60.8% of his passes (down from 68.4%) for 234.8 yards (down from 282.6) on 6.30 net yards per attempt (down from 6.85). While reuniting with (his collegiate teammate) Adams was a boon to the Wideout, who logged 100 receptions on a whopping 180 targets for 1,516 yards and fourteen touchdowns, he clearly missed the presence of (slot-man extraordinaire) Hunter Renfrow and the aforementioned Waller, with both players sidelined for long stretches due to injury. Waller would eventually be traded to the Giants for a third-round pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft, while there have been persistent rumors that Renfrow could soon follow. Then there is the case of Jacobs (pictured above) who after watching McDaniels and Ziegler opt not to pick up his fifth-year option, went out and led the NFL in rushing with 1,653 yards and twelve touchdowns on 340 carries, while hauling in another 400 yards on fifty-three receptions. The Raiders placed the franchise tag on him during the early stages of the offseason, though the deadline for him to sign a new deal has since come and passed without an agreement, meaning that the 25-year-old could be holding out for the foreseeable future. Needless to say, we all understand how Running Backs have been devalued over the last decade, but this guy was quite literally THE rushing attack for the Silver & Black; Jacobs accounted for 80.2% of the team’s total rushing yardage, all of their touchdowns, and all but eighty-eight of their carries. In fact, they didn’t have another player rush for more than 102 yards, with Carr ironically being his only teammate to hit the century mark. If he isn’t on the field by the time they kick off the campaign, it begs the question as to who will be carrying the load in the Backfield? Will it be (Sophomore) Zamir White (17 carries for 70 yards)? How about the oft-injured Ameer Abdullah (4 carries for 20 yards)? This game of chicken that they’re playing with the reigning rushing champ could prove to be a costly one…
Maxxing Out
Last season, the hopes of the Raiders were always likely to live and die with the play of their offense, which as we covered earlier, was expected to be among the league’s most prolific, what with the bulk of their talent and the pedigree of their new Head Coach being found on that particular side of the football. Though they fell short of expectations in that regard, the play of the defense certainly didn’t help matters, which has been an ongoing theme for the franchise over their past two decades of ineptitude. Simply put, the Silver & Black have been really !@#$%^& bad defensively since losing Super Bowl XXXVII back in 2003, ranking no higher than twentieth in points allowed once (2006), and no better than twenty-first in total defense on five occasions during that span. Last season was their first under (Defensive Coordinator) Patrick Graham, who began the transition from a smaller, quicker, zone-based scheme to his preferred New England system that has long thrived on size, versatility, and man coverage concepts. Many teams have struggled to make such a grand change, and after one season you can add the Raiders to that list. Las Vegas finished twenty-sixth in points allowed (24.6), twenty-eighth in total defense (365.7), twenty-ninth against the pass (242.9), and nineteenth against the run (122.8), while ranking twenty-sixth on third down (41.7%) and twenty-ninth in red zone efficiency (64.8%). Oh, and they generated a league low THIRTEEN takeaways, marking the fourth consecutive season in which they have placed twenty-ninth or worse in that particular category. Hell, since 2019, no team in the league has generated fewer turnovers than the Raiders (58), with three different clubs totaling more last season than Vegas had in the last two seasons combined! And it is with that being said, that Ziegler is beginning to place more of an emphasis on this side of the football, shedding salary on offense to replenish the defense, with the team adding some minor reinforcements through free agency that they hope will be better-suited to the system, including the likes of (Linebacker) Robert Spillane and (Defensive Backs) Duke Shelley, Jaquan Johnson, Marcus Epps, and most recently (former Pro-Bowler) Marcus Peters, while using six of their nine draft picks from last Spring on the defensive side of the football. (Seventh overall pick) Tyree Wilson is a freakish 6′-6″, 275-pound product out of Texas Tech, whom the club envisions eventually wreaking havoc opposite of (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Maxx Crosby, who has been one the NFL’s best at the position for a few years now. Crosby (pictured above) has been the lone bright spot on this unit, posting a career-high 12.5 sacks and a league-best twenty-two tackles for loss in 2022, while no player has totaled more pressures over the last two seasons (89). In a division that features the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson at Quarterback, the Raiders are absolutely right to emphasize rushing the passer, though it will likely take more than Crosby and Wilson to get the job done…
Projected Finish: 7-10
The Raiders’ first season under the leadership of McDaniels and Ziegler was a disappointing one, for after managing to win more close games than any team in the NFL in 2021 en route to advancing to the playoffs, they found themselves on the opposite end of that good fortune, losing eight of their eleven games by seven points or less. Making matters worse was how they developed a knack for blowing leads, with six defeats coming despite owning a double-digit advantage. These struggles prompted the brain trust to make some sizable changes, such as cutting Carr and trading Waller in favor of signing Garoppolo and reinvesting funds back into their long-starved defense. However, it is difficult to determine whether or not Las Vegas is any better for it all, particularly when you consider the status of Jacobs, who could end up holding out well into the regular season. Given the strength of competition in the AFC and particularly the AFC West, it’s hard to envision this being a playoff team even if they get a healthy Jimmy G and an available, determined Jacobs. If they can’t count on either of those factors happening, then the Silver & Black are likely to be picking early again in the 2024 NFL Draft, which could mean that a new Franchise Quarterback and a potential coaching change is imminent…
