Our 2023 NFL Preview concludes its trek through the AFC West with the Chargers, who look to rebound from an embarrassing playoff collapse suffered in the AFC Wild Card Round. After qualifying for the postseason for the first time since 2018, Los Angeles was a disappointingly quick out, succumbing to a wild rally against Jacksonville despite building a commanding 27-0 first half lead. Once again, (Head Coach) Brandon Staley’s questionable clock management and late game decisions drew heavy criticism, leaving the young skipper to make some notable changes in the offseason, none more so than hiring (former Cowboys’ Offensive Coordinator) Kellen Moore to coordinate the attack. With that said, will Moore push (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Justin Herbert to the next level? Will the team finally reward (versatile tailback) Austin Ekeler with a contract extension matching his expectations? Will Staley finally patch up his porous run defense? Let’s walk through the City of Angels for a look into what’s going on with these Lightning Bolts, shall we?
The Herbert Ascension
Since he was selected sixth overall back in the 2020 NFL Draft, Justin Herbert has enjoyed quite the rise to stardom. Over the course of his three seasons with the Chargers, he has completed 66.9% of his passes for an average of 287.5 yards per game on 6.51 net yards per attempt, with ninety-four touchdowns in comparison to thirty-five interceptions, along with ten fourth quarter comebacks and thirteen game-winning drives. From a statistical standpoint, the 25-year-old ranks among the top tier passers in the National Football League, though there is a sense that this guy is still a little more hype than substance. That is because he is only 25-24 as the starter in Los Angeles, having thus far proven unable to elevate his team higher than being a fringe Wild Card contender. Last season, Herbert (pictured above) endured arguably the most arduous campaign of his tenure with the Bolts, posting career-lows in touchdowns (25), yards per attempt (6.9) and yards per completion (9.9), net yards per attempt (6.15), and QBR (58.2), all the while suffering a career-high in sacks (38). Furthermore, he also played through a large portion of the campaign with fractured ribs, while the top of his Receiving Corps was utterly decimated due to injuries, leaving the third-year Quarterback to carry the unit. There has also been a consistent theory that the system hasn’t done him many favors either, with the athletic 6′-6″, 237-pounder being shackled within a system asking him to check down more often than he’d like, while placing an onus on getting the football out of his hands quickly. Needless to say, the playbook hasn’t made great use of his skillset, particularly his mobility and absolute howitzer of an arm. And that is why Staley opted to part ways with (Offensive Coordinator) Joe Lombardi and replace him with the aforementioned Moore, who had spent the last four years turning the Cowboys into one of the most prolific attacks in the league. Since 2019, his offenses ranked first overall in total yards twice, while placing in the top-four in points scored in three of those four seasons. A former Quarterback himself, Moore worked wonders with not only Dak Prescott during his time in Arlington, but also with Copper Rush, who replaced Prescott for five games due to injury. Look for the 34-year-old to make better use of Herbert’s considerable arm talent, with deeper throws downfield and outbreaking routes outside of the numbers. He’ll also look to bring a bit more balance to a unit that ranked twenty-eighth in carries (23.8) and thirtieth in both rushing yards (89.6) and yards per carry (3.8), as well as twentieth in red zone efficiency (53.2%). Keeping opposing defenses honest will afford Herbert the luxury of using more play action, while taking advantage of Safeties creeping closer to the line of scrimmage. Recently, the Chargers and Herbert came to an agreement over a MAMMOTH five-year, $262.5 million extension, with nearly $219 in total guarantees, that will see him set to make nearly $100 million in 2025, shattering the previous record of $80 million. Of course, there is another prominent member of the offense that would absolutely LOVE to receive that kind of attention…
Ekeler’s Frustration
When you think of the most productive Tailbacks in the NFL over the last few years, the names of Derek Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook probably come to mind, with the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs all making sizable impacts of late. However, arguably the most dangerous has been Austin Ekeler, who over the past two seasons has been the most prolific at his position (from a scoring standpoint), primarily because he routinely makes plays outside the confines of said position. Indeed, the undrafted free agent may have never rushed for 1,000 yards and has somehow never been selected to a Pro-Bowl but has nonetheless cemented himself as the top pass-catching threat out of the Backfield in the NFL, hauling in a whopping 177 receptions on 221 targets for 1,369 yards and thirteen touchdowns since 2021. In fact, there isn’t a non-QB in the league that has scored more total touchdowns than Ekeler (pictured above), who has crossed into the end zone THIRTY-EIGHT times in the last thirty-three games. A jack-of-all-trades, the 28-year-old is the epitome of versatility, a self-made star that has built himself into the prototype for the position in today’s game. However, the guy wants to be paid like it, and as we’ve seen lately, Tailbacks simply haven’t earned the hefty paydays that other positions have. Ekeler is in the final season of a four-year contract worth just $24.5 million, which by most metrics is a deal that he has clearly outperformed. However, he is looking for a substantial raise to remain in Los Angeles, certainly above the $6.25 million he is set to bank in 2023. We certainly empathize, given that there are Receivers who are second or third on their team’s respective depth chart set to earn more money this season. Furthermore, the outspoken veteran recently organized a Zoom video call with other disgruntled Tailbacks looking to find ways in which they be better compensated for their talents. Given his age, it is unlikely that the Chargers will be willing to hand him a proverbial bag, which is why the veteran requested to be traded back in March, with nothing materializing around the NFL Draft or during the Summer for that matter. Could Ekeler force their hand by holding out? Sure, for after all, that is quickly becoming a common method of negotiating for Tailbacks in search of bigger deals (see the situations of Barkley and Jacobs), though it would be very damaging to the Bolts’ offense, which (as the numbers suggest) rely heavily upon his talents.
On the Hot Seat
If there is a Head Coach in the NFL entering the 2023 campaign on a hotter seat than Brandon Staley, then we would be astonished, for after all, it is considered somewhat surprising that he managed to avoid the proverbial axe last January. Indeed, his initial hire was met with praise around the league, as the Chargers opted for a young, analytically driven mind, fresh off of coordinating the top-ranked defense in the NFL, the Rams in 2020. Prior to calling defensive plays under Sean McVay, Staley (pictured to the right) spent three years working under the venerable Vic Fangio, coaching Outside Linebackers in Chicago and Denver. However, the promise that came with his hiring has left just as quickly as that lead that Los Angeles lost in the AFC Wild Card, with pressure building on the 40-year-old to deliver a contender in the City of Angels. On that fateful night in Jacksonville, his troops raced out to a commanding 27-0 lead on the strength of forcing FIVE first-half turnovers, only to crumble over the course of the final thirty minutes of action. During his two-year tenure with the Bolts, Staley is a middling 19-15 (.559), and has been marred by a series of questionable late-game decisions and clock management issues (see the 2021 regular season finale at Las Vegas). Oh, and the defense has had plenty of problems too, for despite ranking seventh overall last season against the pass (200.4), they have been an absolute sieve versus the run for two seasons now. Transitioning from a base 4-3, Cover-3 scheme to a base 3-4 littered with combo zone/man coverages akin to what we’ve seen from the aforementioned Fangio is a delicate process, for the two schemes require wildly different personnel, and the Chargers simply don’t have the requisite profiles to consistently stop their opponents from bludgeoning them in the trenches. Not to be mistaken, this unit has many shiny toys, including (Edge-Rushers) Joey Bosa and Kahlil Mack along with (Defensive Backs) Derwin James, J.C. Jackson, and Asante Samuel Jr., who all can really wreak havoc on obvious passing downs, but against the run they’ve often been manhandled, ranking thirtieth and twenty-eighth over the last two seasons in that regard. Hell, in 2022 they ranked fifteenth in rushes defended (26.9 per game) only to ship 145.8 yards per contest on a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry. (General Manager) Tom Telesco tried to beef up the Defensive Line via the Draft, selecting (USC product) Tuli Tuipulotu, (Boise State product) Scott Matlock, and signing (undrafted Free Agent) Jerrod Clark from Michigan. For his part, Staley parted ways with (former Defensive Coordinator) Renaldo Hill, and elevated (Defensive Backs Coach) Derrick Ansley to replace him. Oftentimes, when a Head Coach replaces both his Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, it is a telltale sign that he knows that his job is in jeopardy, meaning that this could be his last season with the franchise barring a significant turnaround…
Projected Finish: 8-9
Momentum is a fickle commodity in the National Football League, for you can lose it as quickly as you gained it, which is something that the Chargers know all too well at this point. After taking advantage of a soft schedule to clinch a return to the playoffs following a three-year absence, they looked like world-beaters in dominating the Jaguars during the first half of that aforementioned Wild Card affair. Unfortunately, any talk of being dark horse Super Bowl contenders dissipated swiftly over the course of an epic second-half collapse, leaving many in Southern California to call for Staley’s head. However, the franchise ultimately relented and refrained from firing the skipper, who in turn fired his Coordinators in an attempt to institute change. With that said, it doesn’t appear that the Bolts have changed much, what with a stud at Quarterback and a plethora of Pro-Bowlers on defense but a noticeable lack of balance on both sides of the football. Simply put, as presently constructed, it is difficult envisioning this team making headway in the treacherous AFC, even with a talent like Herbert leading the attack, for Los Angeles is once again skewing far more towards style rather than substance, which may sell tickets at SoFi Stadium but won’t win them many games in January.
