Our 2023 NFL preview stays in Pennsylvania for a look in on the Steelers, who aim for a return to the postseason after last year’s hiatus. Indeed, Pittsburgh enters this season with less questions than they did last Fall, having settled upon their Quarterback of the (immediate) future in the form of Kenny Pickett, whom the franchise selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Though he experienced his share of ups and downs, Pickett enjoyed some moments towards the end of the campaign, though will be expected to perform more consistently as he begins his first full season as the starter. Will he improve? After slowly rebuilding the Offensive Line over the past few seasons, will (Head Coach) Mike Tomlin’s troops find a way to control the line of scrimmage? Will the defense remain healthy? Let’s pull back the steel curtain for a look into all things black and yellow, shall we?
Show Us What You Got
In their first season following the retirement of (longtime Quarterback) Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers entered 2022 with an open competition at QB, a three-way duel between (incumbent backup) Mason Rudolph, (free agent) Mitchell Trubisky, and (rookie) Kenny Pickett. Simply put, whomever emerged victorious had BIG shoes to fill; in eighteen years, the six-time Pro-Bowler posted a 165-81-1 record (.668), with 418 touchdowns opposed to 211 interceptions, fifty-three game-winning drives and forty-one fourth quarter comebacks, while leading Pittsburgh to the playoffs on twelve occasions, including eight division titles, three AFC Championships, and a pair of Lombardi Trophies (XL and XLIII). Though Trubisky initially won the competition and opened the campaign as the starter, he would only last five games before finally giving way to Pickett, whom Tomlin and (General Manager) Omar Khan picked twentieth overall earlier that Spring. Over the course of twelve starts, it was very much a mixed bag for Pickett (pictured above), who completed 63.0% of his passes for an average of just 184.9 yards per game on 5.34 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions, and a QBR of 51.5. Growing pains aside, he did post a 7-5 record and flashed promising mobility with 237 rushing yards and three scores on fifty-five carries, while exhibiting an aptitude for performing in the clutch, with four game-winning drives, including three fourth quarter comebacks. Furthermore, his play picked up over the final seven weeks of the season, in which he completed 59.2% of his throws for an average of 163.0 yards per game on 6.09 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns in comparison to just one interception. Granted, those figures won’t wow anyone, but the lack of turnovers and taking fewer sacks (7) is indicative of better decision-making. Indeed, the 25-year-old Pittsburgh product was considered by far and away to be the most NFL-ready of the prospects in his draft class, as he was able to pick up (Offensive Coordinator) Matt Canada’s scheme rather quickly. However, while his floor has proven to be high, the ultimate question is how high his ceiling really is? Still very much in salary cap hell, Pittsburgh is undergoing a youth movement on the offensive side of the football, meaning that there aren’t many veterans around to help further his growth. Pickett enjoyed an average of just 2.5 seconds in the pocket, while suffering a pressure percentage of 21.0%, with twenty-seven sacks and thirty-two hits. This was a major reason he picked up the rushing yardage that he did, with twenty-seven scrambles for an average of 7.3 yards per run. Transitioning to the NFL is always difficult for Quarterbacks, and with another full offseason within Canada’s system should see him improve across the board, particularly when you consider the club’s plan to rebuild the Offensive Line, which we are about to get into in three, two, one…
Trench Warfare
Over the last three seasons, the Steelers regressed greatly, winning twelve games and the AFC North in 2020 before managing nine wins in each of the following two campaigns, while missing the postseason altogether last January. Sure, Roethlisberger did NOT age gracefully into the twilight of his career, but the team’s decline cannot be solely laid at the feet of Big Ben, for the Offensive Line played a HUGE role in matters. Upon his hiring in 2020, Canada had to incorporate a quick-hitting, short passing game in large part to keep his Quarterback upright, knowing that the protection in front of him was unequipped to hold their position long enough for the gunslinger to stretch the field as he had for so many years. In Canada’s two seasons calling plays, the offense ranked twenty-third overall in total yards twice, while finishing twenty-sixth (18.1) in points a year after ending the campaign twenty-first (20.2). The passing game took the biggest hit, ranking fifteenth in yards (236.3) during Roethlisberger’s farewell tour, to twenty-fourth (215.4) in 2022, while recording the fewest passing touchdowns in the league (12). Sure, part of that is transitioning to a rookie, but the problems up front remained. As we stated earlier, Tomlin and Khan are instituting a youth movement on offense, particularly in the trenches where the Line continues to be overhauled. In the 2021 NFL Draft, they selected Linemen in the third and fourth rounds in the form of Kendrick Green and Dan Moore out of Illinois and Texas A&M respectively, before turning their attention to Quarterback and the skill positions a year later. Last April, they dipped back into the trenches with their first-round pick, (Georgia product) Broderick Jones (pictured above), a massive tackle who should bring plenty of physicality up front whether he’s lining up on the right or on his QB’s blindside. At the opening of training camp, Jones entered into a competition with the aforementioned Moore for the starting spot at Left Tackle, with the runner-up likely shifting to the opposite flank. Credit Khan for bulking up this unit by any means at his disposal, for in addition to the Draft, he also added reinforcements through free agency, signing (veteran Guard) Isaac Seumalo, who will be making the short trip west from Philadelphia where he helped lead a dominant Offensive Line for the Eagles. Physicality will be the word on everyone’s mind when it comes to this unit, for in addition to keeping Pickett upright, they will be charged with furthering a run game that improved greatly, ranking twenty-ninth in 2021 (93.1) to sixteenth in 2022 (121.9). With that said, the Steelers appeared very committed to getting the ground game going, averaging 29.4 rushes per game (10th Overall), though Tomlin would prefer to get a bit more bang for his buck in that regard. A more efficient approach on the ground would go a long way towards facilitating Pickett’s growth, which would in turn alleviate some pressure from their teammates on the opposite side of the football…
Carrying the Load
As a young offense continues to find its legs, it once again appears that the Steelers’ vaunted defense will be tasked with carrying the team. After an uncharacteristically poor finish in 2021 in which Pittsburgh fell to twentieth in points allowed and twenty-fourth in total defense, Tomlin’s troops bounced back last season, ranking thirteenth in total yards allowed (330.4) and tenth in points permitted (20.4), and would have likely placed much higher had their teammates on the opposite side of the football been more effective. In their first season under (Defensive Coordinator) Teryl Austin, they proved to be particularly strong against the run, yielding just 108.1 yards (9th Overall) on 4.2 yards per carry (8th Overall) and a league-low seven touchdowns (1st Overall). However, it was a case of feast or famine when it came to defending the pass; the Steelers allowed the fifth-most passing scores in the NFL (29), though managed to total the most interceptions (20). (Veteran Defensive End) Cameron Heyward was selected to his sixth consecutive Pro-Bowl with 10.5 sacks, twenty-three QB hits, and thirty pressures, while (young Edge-Rusher) Alex Highsmith was rewarded for his career turn of 14.5 sacks and an NFL-best five forced fumbles, with a lucrative four-year, $68 million extension. As for (versatile Safety) Minkah Fitzpatrick, he was selected to his third All-Pro Team, leading the league with six interceptions to go along with ninety-six tackles, eleven defended passes, and a touchdown return. Simply put, the 26-year-old has become the prototypical ballhawk that every team is searching for at his position; since 2019, Fitzpatrick has logged more combined interceptions and incomplete passes than any other Safety (42). With that being said, the most pivotal member of this unit is none other than (Edge-Rusher) T.J. Watt, who a year after tying the all-time record for sacks (22.5), missed six games due to injury, yet still made the cut for a fifth Pro-Bowl. Needless to say, his presence was felt whether he was on or off the field; after suffering a pectoral tear in the season opener, Pittsburgh went 1-5 without him, while yielding an average of 23.7 points on 388.0 total yards, including 271.5 against the pass on a very generous 7.45 net yards per attempt, with four interceptions and five sacks. However, it was a much different story once Watt (pictured above) returned, as his team finished 7-3 down the stretch, while giving up just 18.4 points on 285.7 total yards, including a mere 185.1 against the pass on a scant 5.94 net yards per attempt, with a dozen interceptions and twenty-eight sacks. It’s amazing what kind of an impact the reigning Defensive Player of the Year made, no? If this guy can stay healthy, then there is reason to believe that this defense will be borderline elite this season, which will be key as the offense will need all the time it can get to round into shape.
Projected Finish: 9-8
When talking about the Steelers, one of the most frequently referenced facts is that they have yet to suffer a losing campaign under the stewardship of Tomlin. Over the duration of sixteen seasons in Western Pennsylvania, the 51-year-old has amassed a sterling 163-92-2 record (.636), with just three 8-8 finishes serving as his low water mark. Though it appeared that Pittsburgh would finally endure more defeats than victories at varying points of the last two seasons, his charges nonetheless rallied down the stretch for a respectable finish on each occasion. Make no mistake about it, this is still a team in the midst of transition, particularly on the offensive side of the football, and as we keep stating, the AFC is nothing short of a perilous landscape, particularly the AFC North, which may very well be the toughest division in the league. However, the time to bottom out would have been last year when the defense struggled without Watt and Pickett suffered his growing pains. This Fall, the offense should take a step or two forward with their Quarterback entering his sophomore campaign behind an Offensive Line that has continued to be reinforced. If that unit continues to progress and the defense can remain healthy, then this could very well be a Wild Card side, though asking for much more than that is simply too much at this point…
