Our 2023 NFL Preview takes us to the west coast where the 49ers have designs on finally getting over the hump and bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to the Bay Area for the sixth time in franchise history. After reaching the NFC Championship Game in back-to-back years, San Francisco has come oh, so close to reaching their ultimate goal, only to come up frustratingly short on each occasion. Armed with a bevy of weapons and a dominant defense, the only question is at Quarterback where things get a little murky. Last year’s final pick in the NFL Draft, Brock Purdy, enjoyed much success after taking over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo only to suffer an elbow injury against the Eagles in the NFC Title Game, leaving plenty of uncertainty on who will open the campaign. Will it be Trey Lance or Sam Darnold, or will Purdy make a miraculous comeback? Will he manage to stay healthy throughout the season? How will the defense transition to their third coordinator in four years? Let’s stroll through Santa Clara for a look into these Niners, shall we?
Shanahan’s Quarterback Carousel
Since arriving in San Francisco back in 2017 alongside (General Manager) John Lynch, (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan has built the 49ers into a consistently formidable team whose roster annually ranks among the league’s elite. Over the last four seasons in particular, the club has gone a stellar 42-24 (.636), including a pair of division titles, three trips to the NFC Championship Game, and a Conference Championship in 2019. However, the only real weakness throughout this period of success has ironically been Quarterback, where things have been less than stable, particularly of late. One of the first notable moves that Shanahan and Lynch made was acquiring Jimmy Garoppolo in a trade with the Patriots, and while the Niners certainly experienced their share of highs with him as the starter, he proved to be rather injury prone, missing THIRTY-ONE games since 2018. Aside from the game’s missed, there was always a feeling that Shanahan wasn’t overly committed to Jimmy G, eventually confirming rumors and trading up in the 2021 NFL Draft to select Trey Lance as their Quarterback of the future. Unfortunately, the third overall pick had a hard time both getting and staying on the field, suffering a broken ankle in Week Two, ending his sophomore campaign not long after earning the starting job. Despite enjoying success under Garoppolo, the veteran wouldn’t last long either, succumbing to a Lisfranc injury to his foot, also ending his campaign. To the surprise of many, the offense remained in good hands in the form of (2022 Mr. Irrelevant) Brock Purdy, who proceeded to lead the 49ers to eight consecutive victories and a place in the NFC Championship Game. The 262nd overall pick in last year’s Draft, Purdy (pictured above) performed well above expectations in completing an efficient 68.3% of his passes for an average of 218.0 yards on a healthy 7.60 net yards per attempt with thirteen touchdowns opposed to just three interceptions over the final five games of the campaign. Again, the injury bug revealed itself, this time at the cruelest of moments, as the Iowa State product tore the UCL in his right elbow on a sack early in that affair against Philadelphia. After his backup, Josh Johnson, was eventually knocked out of the contest as well, Purdy reentered the game though was relegated to mostly handing off the football, as San Francisco was pummeled to the tune of 31-7. He would undergo surgery to repair that elbow in February and has been watched closely by the medical staff throughout his rehab, with Shanahan and Lynch continuing to bring him along slowly through Training Camp. Reports out of Santa Clara state that the 23-year-old has experienced soreness in his throwing arm, though he is still targeting the season opener at Pittsburgh for his return. While we’re convinced that Shanahan can win games with just about anyone at Quarterback, it remains to be seen just how successful the Niners will be if they have to pivot away from Purdy, either due to injury or regression. If so, is Lance ready to finally become the starter, or will another former third overall pick, Sam Darnold, turn his once promising career around under one of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL? One thing is for certain: having an elite supporting cast around them makes this uncertainty much more palatable.
Heavy Artillery
One of the main reasons that the 49ers have managed to be so formidable despite the rotating door at Quarterback has been the quality of their supporting cast, which has become the envy of many teams around the NFL. Indeed, Shanahan and Lynch have done a tremendous job of amassing and developing talent on both sides of the football, but for now, we’re going to focus on their litany of weapons on offense. San Francisco ranked sixth in points scored (26.5), fifth in total yards (377.0), thirteenth in passing yards (238.2), third in net yards per attempt (7.10), eighth in rushing yards (138.8), and tenth in yards per carry (4.7), while also finishing third in turnovers committed (17), and sixth on third down (45.0%). (Tight End) George Kittle and (Wide Receiver) Deebo Samuel have been selected to four Pro-Bowls and a pair of All-Pro teams over the past four years, with the former posting a career-high eleven receiving touchdowns last season, whilst the latter accumulated a whopping 1,770 yards from scrimmage and fourteen scores of his own in 2021. Oh, and (Left Tackle) Trent Williams remains the best in the business, earning his tenth Pro-Bowl nod in eleven years and second straight All-Pro selection since arriving in San Fran via trade in 2020. However, what really put this unit over the top was the acquisition of another Pro-Bowler, (versatile Tailback) Christian McCaffrey at the Trade Deadline in a deal with the Panthers. Simply put, this was highway robbery on the part of the Niners, who added his services for second, third, and fourth round picks in last April’s NFL Draft, along with a fifth next Spring. As many predicted, McCaffrey (pictured above alongside Samuel) absolutely THRIVED within Shanahan’s system, rushing for 746 yards and six touchdowns, while reeling in fifty-two passes for another 464 yards and four scores in eleven games. The 27-year-old had struggled with injuries in each of the previous two seasons in Carolina, though looked as healthy as ever with a change of scenery. Equally adept at making plays in the passing game as he is carrying the football, McCaffrey is another chess piece that Shanahan can utilize to devastating effect. In six games prior to his arrival, the offense averaged just 20.3 points on 340.2 total yards and was held below twenty points in half of those contests, only to truly take off with the Stanford product in the Backfield, erupting for averages of 29.8 points on 379.5 total yards and eclipsing thirty points on eight occasions including the playoffs. Whomever is lining up at Quarterback will have a plethora of weapons to work with, though this unit is only one half of the equation that Shanahan and Lynch have built to enjoy prolonged success…
New DC, Same Ol’ D
Indeed, the 49ers have proven to be just as formidable, if not more so on the opposite side of the football, where they have become one of the nastiest defenses in the league year in and year out. Despite being an offensive play-calling savant, Shanahan clearly understands that defense wins championships, which is why San Francisco has continued to stockpile talent in this regard; since 2019, the Niners have ranked no worse than fifth in total defense, even ranking first in the NFL in that very category last Fall (300.6), while also yielding the fewest points in the league (16.3) and the most interceptions (20). Including the postseason, they held their opponents below twenty points in all but six games, while relegating them under 300 total yards on twelve occasions. Physicality and speed have become the pillars of this group, which is ironically rooted in the famed Seattle Cover-3 scheme that (former Defensive Coordinator) Robert Saleh brought from the Jaguars when he joined Shanahan’s staff in 2017. As you can imagine, their success has led to golden opportunities for whomever has coached them, including Saleh, who became the Jets’ Head Coach two years after helping lead the 49ers to Super Bowl LIV. The same can be said of DeMeco Ryans, who picked up the ball following Saleh’s departure, and parlayed that into the top-ranked defense in the league, which in turn got him the head job with his former franchise, the Texans. Taking over for Ryans is Steve Wilks, who unlike his predecessor was not promoted from within the staff, but rather an outside choice. Of course, the 53-year-old has been one of the more respected assistant coaches in the NFL for quite a while now, ascending the coaching ranks as the Panthers’ Associate Head Coach/ Defensive Coordinator from 2015 to 2017, eventually landing him the head gig with the Cardinals. Unfortunately, Wilks was fired after just one year in the desert, though would eventually re-emerge as the Interim Head Coach in Carolina last season, leading the team to a respectable 6-6 finish following Matt Rhule’s dismissal in Week Five. Perturbed that he was passed over for the full-time job, a motivated Wilks should do wonders with the talent at his disposal in Santa Clara, including the likes of (All-Pros) Fred Warner, Talanoa Hufanga, and Nick Bosa. Arguably the top off-ball Linebacker in the league, Warner totaled 130 tackles, a pair of sacks, ten defended passes and an interception, while Hufanga really flourished in his second season at Safety, with ninety-seven tackles of his own along with four interceptions, nine defended passes, two forced fumbles, and a pair of sacks. However, of the lot, Bosa (pictured above) has been the best, leading the NFL with 18.5 sacks along with forty-eight QB hits and fifty-six pressures, en route to earning Defensive Player of the Year honors. As such, the three-time Pro-Bowler is looking for a major payday and has been quietly away from Training Camp as his representatives seek a lucrative extension. Shanahan and Lynch added further reinforcements in the offseason, including (former Eagles Defensive Tackle) Javon Hargrave and a pair of former first-round picks along the Defensive Line, namely Taco Charlton and Clelin Ferrell. If Wilks can repeat the success of his predecessors, then he should be in line for another shot at being a Head Coach, which would continue to reflect well upon the Niners…
Projected Finish: 11-6
After meeting defeat in the NFC Championship Game for the second straight season, the 49ers are understandably one of the popular favorites to represent the conference in Super Bowl LVIII. Armed with a plethora of weapons and a dominant defense, San Francisco has the roster necessary to run roughshod through a very top-heavy NFC, though there remain questions at Quarterback. This team really took off after Purdy took over for the injured Garoppolo, with Shanahan crafting a flawless game plan to afford the rookie the luxury to simply manage the game, while allowing the likes of McCaffrey, Samuel, and Kittle to dominate. However, what can we expect from the sophomore passer this season? If that elbow isn’t right, will the Niners manage to enjoy the same success if they pivot back to Lance or even Darnold? And while we have seen his floor, how high is Purdy’s ceiling really? This is the difference between winning the NFC West and winning the NFC at large, folks, for the Eagles and Cowboys appear to be as formidable ever and the DON’T have concerns over their respective Quarterbacks…
