Our 20232 NFL Preview travels up the west coast to the Northwest, where the Seahawks look to prove that last season was indeed no fluke and that they are ready to contend in the top-heavy NFC. With the departure of (longtime Quarterback) Russell Wilson, Seattle was expected by many to enter a rebuilding phase, though to the surprise of many managed to be very competitive and advance to the playoffs after missing it for just the second time since 2011. It is wild how quickly the narrative can change in the NFL, as it feels like yesterday that many were calling for the franchise to tear it down and start from scratch, but credit (Head Coach) Pete Carroll and (General Manager) John Schneider for sticking to their guns and performing one of the hardest things to do in sports: rebuilding on the fly. Indeed, (veteran Quarterback) Geno Smith emerged from his backup role to win Comeback Player of the Year, making good use of a high-powered offense littered with weapons at a plethora of positions. Now, with the club having invested in him, does Smith have another level within himself? Will the attack bring more substance to their considerable flair? Can Carroll coax some consistency out of his defense? Let’s stroll through Lumen Field for a look at these birds, shall we?
The Ballad of Geno Smith: Act Three
It’s certainly been an interesting career thus far for Geno Smith, who looks to be a veritable late bloomer after enjoying his first truly successful campaign as a starting Quarterback in the NFL. Selected thirty-ninth overall by the Jets back in 2013, Smith (pictured right) struggled to make an impact during his tenure in New York, amassing a 12-18 record (.400), while completing just 57.9% of his passes for an average of 180.6 yards on 5.92 net yards per attempt, with more interceptions (36) than touchdowns (28). Truthfully, he lost his starting job after just his second season with Gang Green, before eventually joining their Empire State rivals, the Giants, in a backup capacity in 2017. From 2015 to 2021, the West Virginia started just five games for four different franchises, including the latter two seasons behind the aforementioned Wilson in Seattle. After the nine-time Pro-Bowler was traded to Denver, Smith entered a competition with Drew Lock for the starting gig in Training Camp, ultimately winning the job and repaying Carroll’s faith in him by posting a quietly stellar campaign. The 32-year-old went 9-8, while logging career-highs in a slew of categories including completion percentage (an NFL-best 69.8%), passing yards (4,282), net yards per attempt (6.37), passing touchdowns (30), and QBR (60.8), leading the Seahawks to the playoffs along the way. Ironically, he completely outperformed his predecessor, with the sizeable draft haul that Seattle received from the deal, including a pair of first-round and second picks, along with a 2022 fifth, (Tight End) Noah Fant, (Defensive End) Shelby Harris, and the aforementioned Lock, helping to accelerate the club’s soft rebuild. Instead of allowing him to hit Free Agency, Carroll and Schneider opted against using the Franchise Tag, signing him to a very reasonable three-year, $75 million contract, with $40 million in total guarantees. However, they can get out of the deal with relative ease after this season if they choose to do so, incurring a modest $17.4 million in dead cap space. So, with that being said, what can we expect from Smith in 2023? Given the way that the deal is structured, he should be motivated to continue to improve, while the bevvy of talent surrounding him should allow him to get even better. At his age, is he a finished product, or is there a higher level of play waiting to be tapped into? If so, then big things could be in store for the Seahawks, which is something that not even their staunchest supporters in the Pacific Northwest could have fathomed a year ago…
Arms Race
Indeed, Seattle didn’t miss a beat in transitioning from Wilson to Smith, and a major reason for that is the quality of weapons at their disposal. During their thirteen seasons together in the Pacific Northwest, Carroll and Schneider have done a tremendous job of identifying and developing talent, and while their initial efforts on the defensive side of the football resulted in the club’s first Lombardi Trophy in 2013, the pendulum has definitely swung to the offense in recent years. Last season, the Seahawks ranked ninth in scoring (23.9), thirteenth in total yards (372.0), eleventh in passing yards (251.9), tenth in net yards per attempt (6.36), eighteenth in rushing yards (120.1), and seventh in yards per carry (4.8). With that being said, this unit was a bit feast-or-famine under (Offensive Coordinator) Shane Waldron, thriving on big plays at the expense of consistency. These birds averaged just 2:38 per drive (23rd Overall), while struggling from a situational point of view, ranking twentieth on third down (37.8%) and a disappointing twenty-eighth in red zone efficiency (47.3%). There is little doubt that Carroll will chalk that up to youth and inexperience for there were many new faces on this side of the football apart from Smith being a clear starter for the first time since 2014. Seattle started a pair of rookies at Offensive Tackle, with (2022 ninth overall pick) Charles Cross and (seventy-second overall pick) Abraham Lucas manning the flanks for all but one game, performing admirably at that. Furthermore, (forty-first overall pick) Kenneth Walker III REALLY emerged as a playmaker at Tailback, rushing for 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns despite not becoming the starter until Week Six. Despite the yardage, his rookie campaign was a mixed bag for the 22-year-old, who topped eighty or more yards on seven occasions with 815 of his total yardage coming in those games, while being relegated below fifty-two yards eight times. Granted, a high ankle sprain did hinder him through early December, but the Michigan State product closed out the season strong with three straight 100-yard games. As for the Receiving Corps, (Wideouts) D.K. Metcalf (pictured above) and Tyler Lockett are vertical threats just waiting to make a play, with both pass-catchers exceeding eighty receptions and 1,000 yards. Interestingly, Carroll and Schneider opted to reinforce this strength, selecting (Ohio State product) Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the twentieth overall pick in last April’s NFL Draft; despite missing most of his junior campaign due to a lingering hamstring strain, he logged ninety-five receptions for 1,606 yards and nine scores as a sophomore for the Buckeyes, operating primarily out of the slot, which is where he is expected to do the bulk of his damage within Waldron’s offense. With Metcalf and Lockett consistently dragging coverage downfield, the 21-year-old should receive plenty of looks underneath. Furthermore, Seattle bolstered the Backfield and the Offensive Line via the Draft, adding (UCLA Tailback) Zach Charbonnet and (LSU Offensive Lineman) Anthony Bradford in the second and fourth rounds respectively.
Defensive Turnaround
It is awfully ironic that after being led by the famed Legion of Boom for so many years, that these Seahawks have evolved into such an offensive team of late. However, with Wilson’s hefty contract no longer on the books, Carroll and Schneider have begun to invest more in their defense, which has been this team’s weakness for some time now. Indeed, Seattle was defined by their excellence on this side of the football during Carroll’s earlier years with the franchise, finishing no worse than fifth in total defense from 2012 to 2016, while allowing the fewest points in the league in four consecutive seasons. With that being said, they have ranked no higher than twenty-second in total defense since 2019, while placing anywhere between twenty-fifth and eleventh in points allowed during that span. Last season they allowed 23.6 points per game (25th Overall) on 361.7 total yards (26th Overall), including 211.5 against the pass (13th Overall) on 6.1 net yards per attempt (15th Overall), along with a miserable 150.2 rushing yards (30th Overall) on a generous 4.9 yards per carry (26th Overall), while allowing the opposition to convert 42.3% of their third downs (27th Overall) and log a red zone efficiency of 59.6% (24th Overall). Really, their only saving grace was takeaways, registering twenty-five on the season (9th Overall), but that simply wasn’t enough against opponents hellbent on simply pounding the rock down their throats, which is a problem when you share a division with a team like the 49ers. Hell, in three meetings with San Francisco, they were pummeled for no fewer than 170 yards on the ground, including 181 in their 41-23 defeat in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. That is not to say that there weren’t some bright spots to be found, as (young Cornerback) Tariq Woolen proved to be an absolute gem of a draft pick, with the 153rd pick in the 2022 NFL Draft leading the league with six interceptions along with sixteen defended passes and a touchdown return. At 6′-4″, Woolen (pictured above) has size and length rare for the position, though began Training Camp on the PUP List after undergoing arthroscopic surgery to clean up a knee injury suffered during OTAs. Ditto for (2020 first rounder) Jordyn Brooks, with the Linebacker recovering from a torn ACL suffered in Week Seventeen, despite leading the league in tackles at that point (161). Ironically, the franchise will be welcoming back the man he was drafted to replace, signing (six-time All-Pro) Bobby Wagner to a one-year, $7 million deal, while also adding another former first round Linebacker, Devin Bush, after the Steelers allowed him to walk in Free Agency. Carroll and Schneider addressed the defense early in last April’s Draft as well, selecting (Illinois Cornerback) Devon Witherspoon fifth overall. The feisty Defensive Back may not have the size that Woolen possesses but has the speed and technique to blanket the shiftiest of Receivers, while also more than willing to come down and support the run. Could they be building a new Legion of Boom in Seattle? It is looking promising, but we’ll have to wait and see…
Projected Finish: 9-8
Turning what some though would be a hard rebuild into a softer one was nothing short of brilliant for the Seahawks, who exceeded most expectations last season in returning to the playoffs after a one-year hiatus. Smith grossly outperformed his predecessor and turned in a career campaign that the franchise has in turn rewarded him with a reasonable new contract. Armed with a plethora of playmakers on the offensive side of the football, Seattle will likely continue to be an enjoyable team to watch, particularly with the likes of Metcalf, Lockett, and Walker, who can take the ball eighty yards to paydirt on any given play. However, there are legitimate concerns over the defense, which while in the early stages of a rebuild, simply isn’t on par with the likes of the NFC’s elite teams, such as the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers. If we see some growth out of this particular unit, then they should find themselves back in the postseason with realtive ease, though they are likely a year away from truly challenging those aforementioned powerhouses…
