Our 2023 NFL Preview heads into the final stretch, as we drop in on the Buccaneers, who are set to embark on a new era after the retirement of legendary Quarterback, Tom Brady. Though it has only been two years, it feels as if it has been ages since Tampa lifted their second Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LV, and that is partly due to the inevitable rebuilding that was always set to occur once Brady sailed off into the sunset. Make no mistake, this may be presented as a soft reboot for the Bucs, though it is for all intents and purposes the prelude of a much more arduous project on Florida’s Gulf Coast. Will (veteran Quarterback) Baker Mayfield reroute his career and start anew, or will (incumbent backup) Kyle Trask secure the starting job? Will the youth movement pay off ahead of schedule? Just how hot is (Head Coach) Todd Bowles’ seat? Let’s take a stroll through Raymond James Stadium for a look into these pirates, shall we?
Baker’s Last Chance
Turning the page from a Hall of Fame Quarterback is obviously a difficult task for any team, though (as the Patriots can certainly attest to) transitioning from Brady is nigh impossible, which is precisely where the Buccaneers find themselves. Given his age upon signing three years ago, the seven-time Super Bowl Champion’s stay in West Florida was always due to be brief, meaning that the franchise must have had a viable succession plan in mind to take over at QB. They were nearly forced to put it into motion last season, though Brady ultimately decided to come out of retirement for a twenty-third campaign. While that decision may have done more harm than good to the Bucs is debatable, though it nonetheless resulted in their second consecutive NFC South Title despite a listless 31-14 defeat to the Cowboys in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. With Brady done, it feels as if the rebuild can ACTUALLY start, with Bowles and (General Manager) Jason Licht opting for an open competition between Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield. The former was selected sixty-fourth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, seeing action in just one contest during his two years with the franchise. As for the latter, Mayfield (pictured above) is looking to pick up the pieces of a once promising career; selected number one overall by the Browns in the 2018 NFL Draft, the Oklahoma product started strong, earning Offensive Rookie of the Years honors before eventually leading Cleveland to their first postseason appearance since 2002, only to struggle with injuries and raised expectations, eventually losing the faith of the organization. A casualty of the club’s pursuit of Deshaun Watson, the 28-year-old was traded to the Panthers for a conditional pick in next April’s NFL Draft, though lasted just seven games before he was outright released due to poor play; Mayfield completed 57.8% of his passes for an average of 187.6 yards on just 5.28 net yards per attempt, with as many touchdowns as interceptions (6) en route to a miserable 1-5 record as the starter. Fortunately, it wouldn’t take long for him to find a place to land, signing with the Rams in place of the injured Matthew Stafford, performing marginally better under the guidance of Sean McVay. Now he finds himself in Tampa on a one-year, $4 million deal in an attempt to prove that he can still be a franchise passer in a league always desperate for them. He and Trask are splitting first team reps in Training Camp, alternating with the first team offense, though Mayfield is expected to hold the edge given his experience and familiarity with the new scheme being implemented by (Offensive Coordinator) Dave Canales. There is perhaps no Quarterback in the NFL this season that needs a strong start, for he is likely to be on a short leash with the largely unproven Trask lurking over his shoulder.
The Youth Movement
One of the many effects that the Buccaneers experienced during the Brady era was just how many quality veterans were willing to take less money to play alongside the three-time MVP in pursuit of Super Bowl glory. Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Le’Veon Bell, Ndamukong Suh, and LeSean McCoy were just a few of the Pro-Bowlers that were willing to sign up for a shot at a Lombardi Trophy, and now that Brady is retired, the club has begun the process of shedding that weight, with none of those figures on the roster any longer. Now, the new approach in Tampa is a youth movement, as Bowles and Licht look to reload the old-fashioned way: drafting and developing talent. Make no mistake about it, this incarnation of the Bucs will be a much younger one in comparison to that of the past three seasons, with the club renewing themselves in a variety of positions. The Backfield will see an open competition between (Tailbacks) Rachaad White, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and (undrafted rookie) Sean Tucker, while (Offensive Tackle) Cody Mauch should see plenty of reps along the Offensive Line after being selected forty-eighth overall. On the opposite side of the football, (Defensive Linemen) Calijah Kancey and YaYa Diaby are expected to make an impact in the trenches, with the former pegged for big things after being picked nineteenth overall in last April’s NFL Draft. Kancey (pictured above) amassed 14.5 sacks and 27.5 tackles for loss in his last two seasons at Pittsburgh, where he has drawn comparisons to former Panther, Aaron Donald, who possessed a similar build and playing style coming out of college. Rookies aside, there are plenty of other young players that will be counted upon to improve, including (Guards) Luke Goedeke and Robert Hainsey, (Defensive Lineman) Logan Hall, and (Edge-Rusher) Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who are each no older than twenty-five years of age, yet saw a wealth of time last season. With such a young roster on their hands, it will be up to a new crop of veteran leaders to help facilitate their growth, with the likes of (Receivers) Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remaining one of the best tandems in the NFL, while (Nose Tackle) Vita Vea and (Linebacker) Devin White are All-Pro caliber talents. Furthermore, the Secondary, which was easily the youngest position group during the Brady years, is now the elderstatesmen. Bowles and Locht re-signed (Cornerback) Jamel Dean to a four-year, $52 million contract with $24.5 million in total guarantees, while also eyeing up an extension for (Safety) Antoine Winfield Jr, who agreed to restructure his contract back in June. However, the biggest deal that the franchise is currently working on is a lucrative extension for the aforementioned White, who is seeking north of $19 million in annual earnings. The former fifth overall pick in 2019, White has been one of the very best Linebackers in the league since his debut, racking up no fewer than 124 tackles in each of the last three seasons. How Bowles and Licht approach these ongoing negotiations will go a long way towards how they view this rebuilding project, for if they decide to trade the LSU product for future draft capital then that will likely be a sign that this team is likely far away from reaching their potential.
On the Hot Seat
Speaking of timetables, if this does in fact turn out to be a lengthy one for the Buccaneers, is Todd Bowles really the ideal man to carry it out? Don’t get us wrong, the 59-year-old is one of the most respected defensive minds in the NFL and would be on the short list of just about any team looking for a Defensive Coordinator. However, his CV as a Head Coach has been another matter altogether, with his teams often leaving much to be desired. In four seasons with the Jets, he went 24-40 (.375) with one winning record and no playoff appearances, with Gang Green winning just fourteen games over his last three campaigns in the Big Apple. After his firing, he was quickly hired by (longtime mentor) Bruce Arians as the Bucs’ Defensive Coordinator in 2019, with his troops ranking in the top-ten in total defense twice, while playing a major part in their run to Super Bowl LV, where their masterclass performance completely disrupted the (reigning champion) Chiefs. As Arians approached retirement following the 2021 campaign, Bowles was always the logical choice to replace him, considering his experience as a Head Coach and relationship with a largely veteran roster. Unfortunately, Tampa couldn’t keep the god times rolling, even with Brady unretiring; the team barely won a very mediocre NFC South with a 9-8 record, with the offense plummeting to twenty-fifth in points scored thanks in large part to a deficient ground game that ranked dead-last across the board. While the defense fared better, the theme of Bowles being nothing more than a great DC masquerading as a below average HC began to prevail, as many around the league wondered if the Buccaneers should have promoted another of Arians’ longtime understudies, (Offensive Coordinator) Byron Leftwich, and left his defensive counterpart to mind his own post. In a cruel twist of fate, Bowles fired the 43-year-old after last season’s disappointing performance, in turn looking outside the organization for answers, hiring the aforementioned Canales to replace him. Spending the last thirteen seasons in Seattle, the 42-year-old was part of Pete Carroll’s original coaching staff when he was hired by the Seahawks, presiding over Wide Receivers before eventually taking over Quarterbacks last year, and was credited with Geno Smith’s surprising turnaround. Though his pedigree largely resides in the passing game, Canales will be counted upon to infuse some more balance back into the attack after averaging just 76.9 yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry. It should also help that he has plenty of experience working with undersized Quarterbacks, which is relevant given that the aforementioned Mayfield is listed generously at 6′-1″, 215 pounds. A lot is riding on how quickly Canales can get this unit back in order, for another dismal showing will likely be the last straw for Bowles, as the Bucs look for a new hand to guide the renovation of their roster.
Projected Finish: 5-12
Last season was an awfully telling one for the Bucs, for even with Brady coming out of brief retirement for one more season, the team looked old and slow on multiple fronts, unable to compete with the other powerhouses in the NFC. Indeed, Tampa should have started their rebuild a year ago, but Brady’s decision pushed their timetable back, which leaves Bowls & Co in a bit of an awkward place. One of the youngest teams in the NFL this season, it is difficult to envision them winning a third consecutive NFC South title, though if Mayfield can hit the ground running and turn his once promising career around, then they could perhaps be a playoff team, though it will take much more than simply better Quarterback play to set things right. Remember, statistical regression aside, Brady wasn’t the issue last season, with a decimated Offensive Line and an absent ground game leaving the attack overly one-dimensional and the defense fatigued as a result. With the rest of the division getting better, it’s likely too much to ask for the Buccaneers to return to the playoffs for a fourth straight season, though they can definitely lay the foundation for their rebuild moving forward, which should be viewed as a positive outcome on the Gulf Coast.
