Our 2023 NFL Preview reaches our penultimate stop in Nashville, where the Titans look to bounce back after a disappointing collapse denied them entry to the playoffs for the first time in four years. Indeed, Tennessee started very strongly last season, racing out to a commanding 7-3 record that appeared to all but lock up the division, only for (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel’s troops to finish the campaign with SEVEN consecutive losses, including a decisive defeat at Jacksonville in the finale. Now, the club finds themselves in a state of transition, as the pillars of the offense, Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry are aging and expensive, with their successors waiting in the wings. How long with Tannehill hang onto his starting job and will it be Malik Willis or Will Levis to supplant him? Will this be Henry’s last stand? Has the pass defense improved enough? Let’s take a walk-through Nissan Stadium for a look into what awaits these Titans, shall we?
Waiting in the Wings
In most cases, when a team is looking to eventually replace a veteran Quarterback, they try to get ahead of things and draft a successor a year or two before the incumbent starter needs to be replaced. In the case of the Titans, it appears that buying in bulk is the way that they want to approach the matter, selecting QBs in the first few rounds of each of the past two NFL Drafts. In 2022, Vrabel and (former General Manager) Jon Robinson picked Malik Willis eighty-sixth overall, only for the franchise to turn around a year later and take Will Levis with the thirty-third overall pick last April. Granted, it needs to be stated that Robinson was fired midway through the campaign in large part to the disagreements that he and Vrabel had during that fateful Draft (cough, the trade of A.J. Brown), with his replacement, Ran Carthon helping to cushion Levis’ freefall out of the first round. It is a safe bet that one of these guys will be replacing the aforementioned Tannehill (more on him shortly), perhaps as early as at some point this season, though it is anyone’s guess as to whom it will be. Viewed as a very raw prospect coming out Liberty, the plan was in all likelihood to keep Willis sidelined in 2022, though his proverbial redshirt was burned once Tannehill suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 7 that he reaggravated in Week 15, ending his season altogether. The 24-year-old would start three games for Tennessee, completing just 50.8% of his passes for 276 yards on a dismal 3.20 net yards per attempt, with zero touchdowns and three interceptions, posting a QBR of 12.4. Granted, Vrabel made sure that the gameplan was VERY conservative for Willis, which was an admission that he simply wasn’t ready to contribute at an NFL level. As for Levis (pictured above alongside Willis), the Kentucky product was bandied about last Spring as a potential number one overall pick, only to fall to the second round where the Titans ended the wait to hear his name called. Standing at a chiseled 6′-3″, 232 pounds, the 24-year-old has physical tools that compare very favorably to that of Tannehill, while having a much higher floor than his counterpart after playing in a pro-style offense during his time in Lexington. With that being said, Levis appeared much better as a Junior than he was as a Senior, particularly in regard to his accuracy, though departures from his supporting cast and minor injuries likely affected his play. So, if Vrabel does in fact decide to pull the plug at Quarterback at some point this Fall, will it be Willis or Levis to take over? We get the sense that the former was Robinson’s baby, while Carthon likely favors the latter, which should inform us all which passer Vrabel will ultimately turn to…
End of the Line
It goes without saying, but at the end of the day the NFL is a business, and the moment that you’re drafted, you had better understand that your team is actively searching for your replacement. This time last year, we predicted the coming of the end for both Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry (pictured together right), given their respective ages and contract situations. In the case of Tannehill, his exit seems all but inevitable now that two different General Managers have seen fit to draft his replacements, whom as we covered earlier are waiting to take over. Since arriving in Nashville four years ago, the veteran has been a winner, turning around his career with a 36-19 record (.656) en route to three straight postseason appearances highlighted by a run to the AFC Championship Game in 2019, while completing an efficient 66.9% of his throws for an average of 225.1 yards on 6.76 net yards per attempt, with eighty-nine touchdowns in comparison to thirty-three interceptions, and rushing for another twenty scores to boot. However, his passing numbers have declined with each campaign, while that nagging high ankle sprain is what ultimately barred his team from returning to the playoffs. Now thirty-five years of age, Tannehill technically has two years remaining on his contract, but can be released after this season with just $9.2 million in dead cap space. Again, in NFL language, this will in all likelihood be his final season with the Titans. As for Henry, the two-time rushing champion finds himself in a similar situation; the 29-year-old can be released after this season with the club assuming just $4.7 million in cap penalties. With that being said, Henry may be heading toward that dreaded 30-year-old threshold that haunts the position, but he showed no signs of aging last year, bouncing back from an injury-plagued 2021 with 1,539 rushing yards and thirteen touchdowns, while marking the third time in the last four years that he led the league in carries (349). Though there are very clear successors for Tannehill’s job, the situation is less defined in the Backfield, where Henry’s support is far from clear; Tennessee drafted (Michigan product) Hassan Haskins in the fourth round in 2022, while doubling down and selecting (Tulane Tailback) Tyjae Spears with the eighty-first pick last Spring. Ideally, the duo could form a tandem reminiscent of the Smash & Dash era of Chris Johnson and LenDale White, with Haskins’ size and physicality (6′-1″ 220 pounds) setting him up to be the bruiser to the smaller and shiftier Spears making plays in space. In four seasons at Tulane, the rookie averaged a healthy 6.8 yards per carry, rushing for 1,581 yards and nineteen touchdowns last year, while also showing potential as a pass-catcher with twenty-two receptions for 256 yards and a pair of scores.
Offensive in Coverage
While Tannehill’s injured ankle was the straw that ultimately broke the Titans’ back last Fall, one of the biggest components of their freefall over the second half of the campaign was their absolutely woeful pass defense, which ranked among the league’s worst. Indeed, Tennessee was one of those odd teams who was utterly dominant against the run, relinquishing the fewest rushing yards in the NFL at a paltry 76.9 yards per game (1st Overall) on 3.4 yards per carry (1st Overall), while conversely shipping the most passing yards at 274.8 yards per contest. About midway through the season, opponents came to the conclusion that they were wasting their time running into the proverbial brick wall led by (Defensive Tackle) Jeffery Simmons (pictured above), opting instead to eviscerate a porous Secondary that was unequipped to handle strong passing attacks. During that aforementioned seven-game losing streak, Vrabel’s troops were allowing opposing Quarterbacks to complete 67.1% of their passes for an average of 286.1 yards per game on a generous 7.31 net yards per attempt, with eleven touchdowns opposed to five interceptions. Injuries laid the Secondary low during this period, with the likes of Amani Hooker and Kristian Fulton both shelved with respective ailments, while (2022 second-round pick) Roger McCreary was pressed into duty and picked on in regularity. Furthermore, the pass-rush was middling; the Titans received 22.5 sacks from their Defensive Front of Denico Autrey, DeMarcus Walker, and the aforementioned Simmons, though lacked pressure off the edge where Bud Dupree struggled to make a consistent impact coming back from an ACL tear, while Harold Landry tore his own ACL a season after posting a career-high 12.5 sacks and subsequently signing a five-year, $87.5 million deal with $52.5 million in total guarantees. So, how have Vrabel and Carthon approached solving this issue, you ask? Well, they’re hoping that a healthy return from Landry and (2021 first-round pick) Caleb Farley will add a pair of playmakers to the defense, with the latter expected to develop into a fixture at Cornerback, though has started just two games in his career thanks to injuries. He’ll begin Training Camp on the PUP list until he can be cleared by the team’s medical staff. With Dupree no longer on the team, more will be expected from (fellow 2021 draftee) Rashad Weaver, who logged the first 5.5 sacks of his career last season in a rotational role. (Defensive Coordinator) Shane Bowen returns for a third consecutive campaign, which is a sign that Vrabel feels that health will really be the key to this unit righting the ship, though that approach admittedly carries a lot of risk with it…
Projected Finish: 8-9
After last season’s cataclysmic collapse, the Titans appear to be on the verge of turning the page to a new era with a number of key figures set to depart. Indeed, Tannehill and Henry have performed at a high level during their time together in Nashville, though given their age and contract situations, the writing is on the wall for them as the franchise already has their successors waiting in the wings. So, with that being said, what in the hell can we expect from this team in 2023? If Tannehill and the Secondary can stay healthy, can we envision Vrabel being able to coax a playoff appearance out of this group? Sure, but if the Quarterback continues to regress, it is also entirely likely that he will pull the proverbial plug and insert either Willis or Levis as the starter for the remainder of the campaign. While the Titans are constructed to be able to survive with a rookie at QB, all manner of outcomes could happen, which makes them incredibly difficult to predict, though we think that they’ll fall just short of advancing to the postseason once again, prompting Vrabel and Carthon to begin a proper rebuild.
