8:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Utah -6.5, Over/Under: 44.5
College football returns, ladies and gentlemen, as the fourteenth-ranked Utah Utes play host to the Florida Gators in a rematch of last year’s season opener, this time from Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. After slumping to a disappointing 6-7 finish in 2021, Florida opted to hit the reset button, firing (former Head Coach) Dan Mullen and replacing him with (former Louisiana skipper) Billy Napier, who in four seasons led the Ragin’ Cajuns to a stellar 40-12 record (.769), including a Sun Belt Championship in 2021. The two-time Sun Belt Coach of the Year was indeed one of the rising stars of the coaching ranks and was tabbed to take over a Gators program that had yet to recover following the 2020 COVID-ravaged campaign. Simply put, this has been a team in heavy transition over the past few seasons; in 2021, the reptiles had the fewest returning starters in the SEC (10) and in Napier’s first year in charge they returned only eleven. Granted, they started the season strong with a victory over their opponent tonight (more on this affair shortly), though turned right around and proceeded to drop two of their next three outings, including losses to (No. 20) Kentucky and (No. 11) Tennessee. Just when it appeared that they had managed to build themselves some momentum in early November with convincing back-to-back wins over Texas A&M and South Carolina, the Gators ended the campaign with consecutive defeats at Vanderbilt and Florida State, before getting embarrassed in the Las Vegas Bowl against Oregon State (3-30), matching their 6-7 finish from the previous campaign. Defense was a major issue during the last days of his predecessor’s tenure, and it continued to play an adverse role in his efforts to turn the team around last year; even with seven returning starters on this side of the football, Florida relinquished 28.8 points per game on 411.0 total yards, including 235.8 yards against the pass on 7.7 yards per attempt, while shipping another 175.2 yards versus the run on a generous 4.5 yards per carry. It appears that the 44-year-old is still very much evaluating what he has on his hands in Gainesville, for there are just eleven starters coming back to the Swamp, five of which on defense. Offensively, his charges leaned heavily towards the run, primarily due to the talents of Anthony Richardson, who racked up 654 rushing yards and nine touchdowns despite being the starting Quarterback. Though he could have likely benefitted from another season under Napier’s stewardship, particularly as a passer, the massive signal-caller opted for the NFL Draft, where he was selected fourth overall by the Colts. Replacing Richardson is arguably the biggest storyline of this season, as Napier looked to the transfer portal for help, adding (former Wisconsin QB) Graham Mertz in the offseason to compete with (former Buckeye) Jack Miller, who missed nearly all of last season with a broken thumb before eventually starting in Richardson’s stead in the Las Vegas Bowl. Given his experience, Mertz will begin the season as the starter, though he was far from spectacular during his time in Madison, completing 59.5% of his passes for an average of just 158.9 yards on 7.0 yards per attempt, with thirty-eight touchdowns in comparison to twenty-six interceptions over four seasons. Furthermore, he is nowhere remotely close to being the dual threat that Richardson was, which could eventually open an opportunity for Miller, who is certainly a more athletic option. Expect the attack to remain grounded, with the dynamic duo of (Tailbacks) Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne carrying the load, with the former leading the team in rushing yards (841) and touchdowns (10), while the latter wasn’t far behind with 719 yards and six scores of his own. Looking at this matchup, the Gators are 2-0 all-time against the Utes, including a 38-29 victory in their first meeting way back in 1977. Of course, when they met in last season’s opener at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Napier’s troops survived a wild 29-26 thriller, thanks in large part to the aforementioned Richardson, who trampled over the visitors en route to amassing 106 yards and three touchdowns on eleven carries, with his climactic jaunt into the end zone with 1:25 left proving to be the decisive factor. From a betting perspective, Florida was a middling 7-6 against the spread in their first campaign under Napier, including a 3-2 mark against non-conference opponents, though did manage to cover the line in each of their three contests as an away underdog. The reptiles have generally performed well against (current) Pac-12 competition, owning a solid 8-5-1 record straight-up in comparison to a 5-3 ledger against the spread. Furthermore, they have been stellar of late when kicking off the campaign away from the Swamp, winning all but one of their last six road openers outright. However, they have tended to struggle on field turf of late, failing to cover the number in four consecutive contests of that nature. With just three SEC home games and a battle with (No. 5) LSU outside the division, Florida could very well find themselves as an underdog in over half of their outings this season, which has this team flying well below the radar. However, for a coach embroiled in a reasonably challenging rebuild, that may not be a bad thing for Napier…
Meanwhile, with the Pac-12 expected to collapse following this season, Utah looks to end the league’s existence with a third consecutive championship. Indeed, few could have imagined their glacial ascendance upon joining the conference back in 2011, but the Utes have nonetheless exceeded expectations, outperforming many of their more celebrated residents. Unsurprisingly, (Head Coach) Kyle Whittingham has had a lot to do with their success, guiding his charges to a 96-54 (.640) record over the last twelve seasons, including a stellar 34-13 (.723) mark over the last four campaigns, which have included back-to-back trips to the Rose Bowl. Apart from three close defeats to the likes of Florida, UCLA, and Oregon by a combined sixteen points, Utah blew the doors off just about everybody else, with eight wins by at least twenty-one points. Oh, and they beat USC TWICE, outlasting them in a wild 43-42 affair in Salt Lake City, before embarrassing them in the Pac-12 Championship Game, 47-24. Strong on both sides of the football, the offense was dynamic under the leadership of (Senior Quarterback) Cameron Rising, who emerged as a Heisman candidate with 3,3034 yards, twenty-six touchdowns and eight interceptions, while rushing for another 465 yards and six scores, despite getting hurt in a midseason clash at Washington State and proceeding to play the second half of the campaign below 100%. Injuries have played a major factor in the career of the Texas transfer, who spent much of the offseason working his way back from a torn ACL suffered in their Rose Bowl defeat to Penn State. The passing game parted ways with his favorite target, (Tight End) Dalton Kincaid, who was selected twenty-fifth overall by the Bills in last Spring’s NFL Draft after reeling in seventy receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns. Fortunately (fellow Tight End) Brant Kuithe returns for his senior campaign after suffered a torn ACL four weeks into last season; Kuithe has topped 600 yards and six touchdowns twice in his career at Utah and should slide back into his role as the fulcrum of the passing game with relative ease. Defensively, the Utes allowed 21.4 points per game (27th Overall) on 334.1 total yards, including 222.6 yards versus the pass and another 111.4 against the run, while logging twenty-four takeaways. With nine returning starters, this unit is arguably the best in the Pac-12, and when you consider they have a grand total of sixteen returning on both sides of the ball, you can see why so many pundits are bullish on these Utes. Hell, it took him nineteen years, but Whittingham finally has his first Top-5 Recruiting Class in Salt Lake, which is a sign that no matter which conference this school calls home in the future, they will continue to be competitive. Looking to this particular matchup, the Utes have never beaten the Gators, though came awfully close to doing so in just their second all-time meetings last Fall; Wittingham’s troops gave the reptiles everything they could handle in the Swamp, piling up 446 total yards of offense, including 230 yards via the run on thirty-nine carries in an affair that featured eight lead changes. The aforementioned Rising really put his name on the map in this one, completing 22-of-32 passes for 216 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while rushing for another ninety-one yards on seven carries. From a betting perspective, Utah went 8-6 against the spread last season, while going unbeaten on their home turf, covering all but one those six affairs at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Under Whittingham’s watch, they are 48-39-2 against the spread as a home favorite, while posting a solid 37-31-2 mark against non-conference opposition. The Utes may be just 3-10 straight-up against (current) SEC schools, but have covered four of their last six encounters, including last year’s trip to Gainesville. On the injury front, the oft-injured Rising is expected to start tonight despite tearing his ACL in last winter’s Rose Bowl, while his backup, (Redshirt Freshman) Brandon Rose has been nursing an unspecified malady, though is also expected to be active. As for the aforementioned Kuithe, he’ll be looking for a clean bill of health this fall after missing all but four games last year with a torn ACL of his own.