7:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: LSU -2.0, Over/Under: 56.5
College Football’s opening Labor Day weekend continues with the crown jewel of this spread of matchups, as the (No. 5) LSU Tigers travel to Orlando to battle the (No. 8) Florida State Seminoles in a rematch of last year’s opening thriller, this time from Camping World Stadium. My oh my, what a difference a year makes, for when these teams clashed last September, neither side was ranked in the AP Poll, only for both schools to find themselves ranked within the top-ten in lieu of this particular encounter. Patience isn’t something that is often associated with powerhouse programs, but it is nonetheless refreshing to see it pay off, which is the case with Florida State and their Head Coach, Mike Norvell, who has them looking stronger than they’ve been in years. Indeed, the 41-year-old wasn’t handed any favors when he took a program coming off back-to-back losing seasons, only to begin his tenure during the COVID-ravaged campaign of 2020. the former Memphis skipper went a disappointing 8-13 through his first two seasons in Tallahassee, finding himself squarely on the hot seat heading into year three, which began with four consecutive victories followed by three straight losses. Granted, those three defeats came by a combined eighteen points against ranked opponents (Wake Forest, NC State, and Clemson) despite outgaining them 158.0 yards per game, proving their quality, which would reveal itself down the stretch with six straight wins to close the campaign, including a 35-32 win over Oklahoma in the Cheez It Bowl. It may not sound like a big deal for a program with three National Championships, but Norvell guided the ‘Noles to their first ten-win season since 2016, (hopefully) ending a miserable era in which they were 26-33 from 2017 to 2021. Now, armed with seventeen returning starters, including a Senior Quarterback, a hulking Offensive Line, and a talent-laden defense, FSU looks like they could be a serious problem this Fall. Under center, (Senior QB) Jordan Travis has improved every year that he has spent in Tallahassee, coming off a stellar campaign in which he completed 64.0% of his passes for 3,214 yards on an ACC-best 9.1 yards per attempt, with twenty-four touchdowns opposed to five interceptions, while making good use of his legs with 417 rushing yards and another seven scores to boot. The former Louisville transfer performed well in last year’s meeting with LSU, completing 20-of-33 passes for 260 yards and a pair of touchdowns along with thirty-one rushing yards on eight carries, en route to granting the Seminoles a commanding lead in the fourth quarter. He’ll be throwing to arguably the largest Receiving Corps in the country, with the likes of Johnny Wilson (6′-7″), Keon Coleman (6′-4″), and (Michigan State transfer) Kentron Poitier (6′-3″) all towering over opposing Defensive Backs, combining for 115 receptions for 2,035 yards and sixteen touchdowns last season. Looking at this particular matchup, Florida State has won five consecutive meetings with LSU, with last year’s insane 24-23 victory proving to be quite the thriller. After leading 7-3 at halftime, the Seminoles ran off twenty-one unanswered points, before the Tigers caught fire late. However, after the hosts drew within one point as time expired, Norvell’s charges came up with an improbable blocked extra point, as (Sophomore Safety) Shyheim Brown played hero in thwarting the Bayou Bengals’ potential tying kick.
From a betting perspective, Florida State was 8-5 last season, further reflecting the gradual turnaround under the direction of Norvell. They failed to cover the only instance in which they were a home underdog, a 28-34 loss against (No. 4) Clemson, and are 5-7 in that particular category over the last ten seasons. As for games contested at neutral venues, the Seminoles are 5-8 against the spread in that regard over the past decade, including 1-1 last season. FSU enjoyed their first victory in a season opener since 2016 and are riding a 4-1 run against the spread in this series opposite of the Tigers. Just as they were in last Fall’s encounter, the “Noles are underdogs, which is a role that has been kind to them of late, as Norvell’s troops have covered all but one of their last six outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Returning to the top-10 of the AP Poll for the first time since 2017, this is a team that looks poised to return to glory, though they will have a rather difficult road ahead of them; in addition to LSU, Florida State faces the likes of Clemson, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, and Florida all away from Tallahassee, with their annual meeting with Miami saved for early November. With that said, there is a reason that they’re the preseason favorite to win the ACC for the first time in eight years, for the were the ONLY team in the FBS to lead their respective conference in both total offense (484.2) and total defense (321.8). With so many returning starters on both sides of the football and a plethora of quality transfers to bolster their ranks, it would be a MAJOR disappointment if these Seminoles aren’t competing for a spot in the College Football Playoff come Winter…
Meanwhile, not even the most open-minded of LSU fans could have thought that (Head Coach) Brian Kelly would make such a difference in his first season in Baton Rouge. After a miserable 6-7 finish to the 2021 campaign, the former Notre Dame skipper shook things up immediately, with over THIRTY players departing the program, while nineteen arrived via the Transfer Portal. Thankfully, the 61-year-old struck gold on many of those transfers, including (Junior Quarterback) Jayden Daniels, who arrived following three seasons at Arizona State. Simply put, LSU had struggled mightily offensively since winning the National Championship back in 2019, with Quarterback serving as the fulcrum of their issues. Thankfully, Daniels really found his rhythm with the Tigers, completing a career-high 68.6% of his passes for 2,913 yards on 7.5 yards per attempt, with seventeen touchdowns opposed to just three interceptions. However, where he really made an impression was with his legs, rushing for more yards (885) than any other Quarterback in the FBS, along with eleven scores. His exploits were a major component in the offense going from averaging just 26.5 points per game on 368.0 total yards to a much-improved 34.5 points on 453.0 total yards. Now, with eight returning starters on this side of the football, including four along an Offensive Line that was short on experience a year ago, (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Denbrock’s unit should be even more effective this Fall. Defensively, Kelly returns seven starters from last season, though the Secondary will certainly bear watching. Few schools have pumped out more quality Defensive Backs than LSU over the past two decades, but this particular incarnation of the defensive backfield will feature just one returning starter (Senior Safety, Greg Brooks), with a number of transfers comprising the rest of the unit. We don’t doubt that the incomings are talented, but they’ll be in for a baptism by fire against the Seminoles’ sizeable Receiving Corps, which averages 6′-4″. Of course, pressuring the Quarterback makes life easier on the Secondary, and the Tigers appear loaded with quality depth along the Defensive Front; (Defensive Coordinator) Matt House’s unit goes nearly ten deep, with five new transfers bolstering a group consisting of nine different players with starting experience. Looking at this particular matchup, LSU hasn’t fared well against Florida State in their few encounters, winning just twice in ten meetings dating back to 1968. In fact, last year’s wild 23-24 defeat at Caesars Superdome was their first battle since 1991. The Tigers trailed 24-10 late in the fourth quarter largely on the strength of Special Teams miscues, including a missed field goal and fumbled away a punt return. However, Kelly’s charges rallied back with consecutive touchdown drives, including a 99-yard march to tie the game, only to see the tying extra point blocked as time expired. Daniels (pictured below) had himself quite a debut for the Bayou Bengals, completing 25-of-34 passes for 209 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for another 114 yards on sixteen carries.
From a betting perspective, LSU was 8-6 against the spread last season, though a middling 4-4 as a favorite and a dismal 0-3 when favored away from Baton Rouge. While this affair is technically at a “neutral” venue, Camping World Stadium resides in the Seminoles’ backyard in Orlando, with Kelly’s troops just 2-7 against the spread all-time against the ‘Noles. For that matter, the Tigers are 10-8 against the spread in neutral site contests over the last ten years. However, there are three trends that point in the direction of the Bayou Bengals, who have covered the number in four consecutive non-conference games, including last Winter’s 63-7 demolition of Purdue in the Citrus Bowl (-15), while covering all but one of their last six games at neutral sites as a favorite. Furthermore, this is a team that is a stellar 5-1 against the spread over their last six outings during the month of September. On the injury front, there could be some issues in the Backfield for Kelly & Co, with (Tailbacks) John Emery and Armoni Goodwin set to miss this rematch with Florida State due unspecified maladies, while (Notre Dame transfer) Logan Diggs, who has been pegged as the starter, has been nursing a tender hamstring and is listed as questionable. Thankfully, Josh Williams is probable to participate, with the Junior rushing for 532 yards and six touchdowns a year ago, while representing their best option a pass-catcher (21 catches for 132 yards) and in pass protection. For those of you who read into bulletin board material, Kelly appears rather acclimated to the SEC way of life, stating on the first episode of his show that “We’re gonna go beat the heck out of Florida State.” We’ll see if the Tigers can back up the declaration of their coach…