8:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Clemson -13.0, Over/Under: 55.5
College Football’s Labor Day Weekend concludes tonight on Tobacco Road, as the (No. 9) Clemson Tigers look to assert themselves as contenders for the Playoff immediately as they travel to Durham to battle the improved Duke Blue Devils, who are keen to pull the upset. Since falling short in the National Semifinal three years ago, there has been a sense of regression from Clemson, who during (Head Coach) Dabo Swinney’s reign have become arguably the top program in the country residing outside the SEC and Big Ten. During his fifteen years in charge, the 53-year-old has led the Tigers to an insane 161-39 record (.805), including eight ACC Championships, and a whopping SIX consecutive trips to the College Football Playoff in which they secured National Championships in both 2016 and 2018, while featuring in the Final on two other occasions. However, the last two seasons have seen these cats fall short of their lofty ambitions, for while most schools will take a 21-6 run every day of the week and twice on Sunday, failing to reach the sport’s Final Four is nothing short of failure for Swinney & Co. So, what has gone wrong, you ask? Well, let’s start by stating that Clemson has seriously become a victim of their own success, meaning that like all great programs, they suffer from heavy attrition. Not only have the Tigers lost so many talented players to the NFL, but they have also two of Swinney’s chief lieutenants, as (Offensive and Defensive Coordinators) Tony Elliott and Brent Venables became Head Coaches at Virginia and Oklahoma respectively. Unlike Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State, who regularly replace assistants every offseason, the coaching staff at Clemson had remained largely intact throughout their reign of success, with Swinney outsourcing in the offseason to land (Offensive Coordinator) Garrett Riley from TCU, while (Defensive Coordinator) Wes Goodwin was promoted last fall. The other issue has been the Quarterback position, which has been an issue over the past two seasons. After enjoying successful stretches with the likes of Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence, it is easy to expect greatness from whomever lines up under center for the Tigers, though that notion was proven incorrect in the form of (former QB) D.J. Uiagalelei, who struggled in his two seasons in Death Valley. A number one overall recruit in his own right, the big fella never quite lived up to the hype (remember that 439 yards he threw for against Notre Dame?) in his first year as the starter, never eclipsing 250 yards in any game, while tossing more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (9). After dropping twenty-five pounds the following summer, he found himself embroiled in a season-long competition with another highly touted prospect, Cade Klubnik, who eventually beat him out for the starting gig, leading to his transfer to Oregon State. Now the undisputed starter, Klubnik (pictured below) will be expected to lead the Tigers back to the promised land. Klubnik featured in ten games last season, completing 61.0% of his passes for 697 yards on 7.0 yards per attempt, with two touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while rushing for another 139 yards and two scores. While those figures aren’t likely to impress, the sophomore earned ACC Title Game MVP honors on the strength of 309 total yards and two touchdowns in a 39-10 thumping of North Carolina, before amassing 371 total yards and a rushing touchdown in a 14-31 loss to (No. 6) Tennessee in the Orange Bowl. Sure, he also threw a pair of interceptions, but the talent is clearly there, leaving it to Swinney and Riley to cultivate it.
From a betting perspective, Clemson went a middling 7-7 against the spread last season, including 2-2 as an away favorite, while covering the line in all but two of their conference affairs. Under Swinney’s leadership, they are 110-87-3 against the spread dating back to 2008, including a 29-26-1 mark when favored away from home, while holding a strong advantage against their fellow ACC residents (75-49-3). That mastery applies to their opponent tonight, as the Tigers have covered seven of their last eleven meetings with the Blue Devils dating back to 1999, including victories both straight-up and against the spread in each of their last four encounters. Their most recent matchup, a 35-6 demolition back in 2018, saw Swinney’s cats narrowly cover a 28-point spread in front of their home crowd. The last time that they traveled to Durham, they were favored by twelve points and cruised to a comfortable 56-20 victory. Tonight’s contest will also mark the second consecutive season in which these felines have featured on Labor Day, hammering Georgia Tech 41-10 as a 24-point favorite on a “neutral” field. On the injury front, this is a largely healthy team, with (Freshman Defensive Tackle) Vic Burley and (Backup Quarterback) Hunter Helms both listed as questionable with respective lower body maladies. After falling well short of expectations over the past two seasons, Clemson faces a relatively soft schedule where the bulk of their tough games will be contested in Death Valley, while some long-sought clarity at Quarterback could see them legitimately aim for the Playoff following a two-year hiatus.
Meanwhile, there were few surprises as pleasant as Duke last season, who easily surpassed low expectations to win nine games, the school’s highest total of victories since 2013. Indeed, (Head Coach) Mike Elko worked wonders in his first season following the departure of (longtime skipper) David Cutcliffe, who turned around one of the worst programs in the country. In fourteen years in Durham, Cutcliffe amassed 77-97 record (.443), highlighted by a successful stretch from 2013 to 2018 in which the Blue Devils went an inspiring 46-32 (.589), including a school-best 10-4 and a spot in the ACC Championship Game back in 2013. However, there had been signs that his reign had lost momentum, with a disappointing 35-79 record (.307) in conference play, while stumbling to a 5-18 mark over the last two campaigns, leading he and the university to mutually part ways following the 2021 season. The school found his replacement in the form of Elko, who had spent the previous three seasons coordinating Jimbo Fisher’s defense at Texas A&M. Many pegged the transition from the QB-friendly Cutcliffe to the defensive-minded Elko to be a rocky one, though that couldn’t have been further from the truth; Duke hit the ground running under the 46-year-old’s watch, winning four of their first five games of the 2022 season, including a 31-23 victory at Northwestern as a 10-point underdog. The Blue Devils improved dramatically on both sides of the football, going from scoring just 22.8 points per game on roughly 418.0 total yards per game in 2021 to 32.8 points on just two fewer yards per average in 2022, while permitting just 22.1 points on a very respectable 378.0 total yards a season after getting torched for nearly 40.0 points per game (39.8) on 517.0 total yards! So how did he do it, you ask? Well, nothing swings success quite like turnovers, and Elko’s charges enjoyed a stellar +16 turnover differential, as the offense stopped shooting itself in the foot, while the defense evolved into an opportunistic outfit. After playing sparingly as a freshman, (Junior Quarterback) Riley Leonard really made an impact in his first season as the starter, completing 63.9% of his passes for 2,967 yards on 7.6 yards per attempt, with twenty touchdowns and just six interceptions, while also leading the team in both rushing yards (699) and scores (13). Starting every game for the Devils, Leonard (pictured below) served as a needed steady hand, never throwing more than a single interception in a game, while becoming the first Quarterback in school history to rush for at least ten touchdowns. Counting the signal-caller, this is an offense that should be even better this fall, with ten starters returning to Durham. As for the defense, Elko proved his coaching chops in spades, making the most of a unit that initially appeared light on talent. With that said, they were nonetheless surprising, amassing thirty-six sacks, sixteen recovered fumbles, and ten interceptions. Eight starters return on this side of the football, including (Junior Defensive Tackle) Dewayne Carter, who led the team with 5.5 sacks, eleven tackles for loss, and three fumble recoveries en route to earning 2nd Team All-ACC honors.
From a betting perspective, Duke seriously exceeded expectations last season, posting a stellar 10-3 record against the spread, including a perfect 2-0 mark as a home underdog, while covering all but two of their eight conference matchups. A number of trends are currently pointing in the direction of the Blue Devils, who have covered the spread in five consecutive games at Wallace Wade Stadium, while also riding a four-game streak of covers as an underdog regardless of the venue. On the flipside, there are also a few trends working against them, including an eight-game losing streak against the spread as an underdog of at least 10.5 points, which is the case tonight, while failing to cover five straight outings in which they’ve been a home underdog of as many points. Tonight’s affair marks the twelfth time over the last fifty years in which Duke has opened their schedule against ACC competition, though it will be the first such matchup since facing (No. 18) Virginia all the way back in 2003, who shut them out in a disappointing 0-27 result. Going to back to their previous encounter with the (No. 2) Tigers, the Devils gave them everything they could handle for one half of football, trailing 14-6 at intermission, only to be outscored 21-0 in the second half. Granted, that Clemson team was special, as (2021 number one overall pick) Trevor Lawrence would go on to lead his teammates to their second National Championship in three years. On the injury front, Elko’s troops are largely healthy as well, with the only omission being (Senior Receiver) Eli Pancol, who is out indefinitely due to a lower body ailment. The 6′-3″ 233-pound Pancol is a large target downfield and in the red zone, having reeled in twenty-three receptions for 347 yards despite missing four games to injury last season. After grossly outperforming expectations in 2022, it is debatable that Duke will be able to replicate that success, though crazier things have happened; despite all of those returning starters and a criminally underrated Quarterback, this is a team that only defeated TWO FBS sides with winning records a year ago, only to face EIGHT of them this Fall. Needless to say, we will see what these Devils are made of shortly…