7:30 PM EST, ESPN2 – Line: Kansas -3.0, Over/Under: 56.5
Week Two of the College Football season kicks off with a pair of power-5 programs headed in the right direction, as the Illinois Fighting Illini battle the Kansas Jayhawks, from David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Kansas. Entering his third season in Champaign, it is hard to argue that (Head Coach) Bret Bielema doesn’t have Illinois (1-0, 0-0 in Big Ten) on the right path. Inheriting a 2-6 side that featured eighteen returning starters, the big fella went to work and quickly improved the Illini by three wins in his first year on the job, before making the leap to eight victories last year. Despite having to replace ten starters, including his starting Quarterback, the 53-year-old did a tremendous job of pivoting, adding (Syracuse transfer) Tommy DeVito, who nonetheless proved to be an upgrade over his predecessor, completing 69.7% of his passes for 2,650 yards on 7.2 yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns opposed to just four interceptions. Furthermore, (former Western Michigan transfer) Chase Brown thrived in the wake of (Freshman Tailback) Josh McCray’s injury, rushing for 1,699 yards and ten touchdowns, while the defense, under the guidance of Ryan Walters, allowed the fewest points in the FBS at a scant 12.8 points per game on 273.5 total yards. However, it has come time for Bielema (pictured below) to pivot once again, as Walters is now Purdue’s Head Coach, while ten starters once again need to be replaced including DeVito, Brown, and virtually an entire Secondary that featured THREE NFL draft picks. So, what has the former Big Ten Coach of the Year done to solve these issues, you ask? Well, these days it appears that the Transfer Portal solves all woes, for replacing DeVito is (Ole Miss transfer) Luke Altmyer, while he alongside a rejuvenated McCray and (fellow sophomore) Reggie Love will be carrying the load in the Backfield. It was a mixed bag for these three during the season opener, a narrow 30-28 victory over Toldeo that saw five lead changes, with (Senior Kicker) Caleb Griffin drilling the go-ahead 29-yarder as time expired. Things started slowly for the hosts, who trailed 19-7 early in the second half, only to completely turn the tables with three consecutive touchdowns in relatively short order; momentum swung in favor of the Illini with a 48-yard interception return to the house courtesy of (Sophomore Safety) Mike Scott, followed by a pair of touchdown passes from Altmyer to (Junior Receiver) Pat Bryant. However, the Rockets would not go away, striking back with ten unanswered points to retake the lead with just under three minutes left, though Altmyer was able to hit (Sophomore Wideout) Casey Washington for a 33-yard strike to set up Griffin’s game-winner. In the end, the hosts finished with just 379 total yards on twenty-one first downs and were heavily penalized, incurring ten flags for a loss of 100 yards. Furthermore, (new Defensive Coordinator) Aaron Henry, who was promoted following the stellar work he did with the Defensive Backs, will need to iron out the proverbial wrinkles after his charges shipped 416 total yards, including 186 versus the run, on twenty-seven first downs. Altmyer finished the affair with an efficient 206 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on 18-of-26 passing, while rushing for another sixty-nine yards on nine carries, as the tandem of McCray and Love accounted for a combined ninety-three yards and a score on thirty-three attempts.
From a betting perspective, Illinois also went 8-5 against the spread last season, bringing their record to 15-10 in that regard under Bielema coming into last weekend’s opener, which they failed to cover; the Illini were favored by eight points at home against Toledo, only to narrowly escape with that aforementioned 30-28 victory. With that being said, they’ve handled themselves well as a road underdog over the past two seasons, covering all but two of said contests, though are just 3-4 against the spread in non-conference affairs. Dating back to the previous campaign, Bielema’s troops are a middling 5-5 against the spread in their last ten games, though have been VERY good away from Champaign, covering all but eight of their last ten road outings. Furthermore, the Illini have covered the line in six consecutive road games against opponents with winning records, while riding a four-game streak of road covers overall. The have also failed to cover the spread in four straight road openers. On the injury front, depth in the Backfield, Linebacker Corps and Secondary could prove to be an issue; (Redshirt Freshman Tailback) Jordan Anderson and (Redshirt Freshman Linebacker) Malachi Hood will both miss the entire season due to respective maladies, while (fellow Linebacker) Ezekiel Holmes is out indefinitely with an ailing knee, though (Freshman Defensive Back) Tyson Rooks could make his debut after missing the opener with an unspecified injury. The Illini are 3-2 in the all-time series against Kansas, though haven’t traveled to Lawrence since 1892. In fact, they haven’t encountered a Big XII team in quite a while, with their last meeting being a 38-14 victory over Baylor back in 2010. Tonight’s trip to Lawrence will serve as a good test prior to the following weekend’s showdown with (No. 7) Penn State, whom they stunned in their last meeting in a marathon 20-18 slugfest that required NINE overtimes to crown a victory. That triumph served as the first true hallmark of Bielema’s reign at Illinois, helping facilitate their improvement from 2021 to 2022.
Meanwhile, Kansas (1-0, 0-0 in Big XII) is also enjoying an upward trajectory, as (Head Coach) Lance Leipold enters his third campaign in Lawrence, with reasonable expectations to reach a second consecutive bowl. Arriving from Buffalo, where he led the Bulls to a 37-33 record from 2015 to 2020, including a pair of appearances in the MAC Title Game (2018 and 2020), Leipold (pictured below) inherited a winless Jayhawks team that had served as the laughingstock of the Big XII for over a decade. Just how bad had KU been, you ask? Well, the last time that the program had been to a bowl game was in 2008, which was coincidentally also the last instance in which they had managed to earn more than one conference victory in any single season. Prior to his arrival in 2021, the ‘Hawks were 0-9 and outgained by a whopping 231.0 total yards per game versus Big XII competition. Granted, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither was Kansas, who stumbled out to a 1-7 record under the 59-year-old’s watch. However, they stunned Texas in Austin, no less, and lost their remaining two outings by a combined nine points. Building upon that inspiring finish, the Jayhawks began last season on a 5-0 tear, rising to nineteenth in the AP Poll, which was the first time that they had been ranked since 2009. However, (electrifying Quarterback) Jalon Daniels was knocked out of action in a near-upset of (National Runner-Up) TCU, beginning an unfortunate 1-6 slide over the final seven games of the regular season. However, they managed to qualify for a bowl for the first time in fourteen years, very nearly besting Arkansas in a wild 53-55 Liberty Bowl. Now, it is year three for Leipold & Co, with a staggering SEVENTEEN starters returning to Lawrence, including TEN on the offensive side of the football. Even by Big XII standards, this unit should be prolific this fall, averaging 37.0 points per game on 433.8 total yards in the nine games that Daniels started for them. Granted, they were nearly as potent with (fellow junior) Jason Bean steering the ship, though this attack is really tough to stop with the former making plays; in his first season as the starter, Daniels completed 66.1% of his passes for 2,014 yards on 8.8 yards per attempt, with eighteen touchdowns opposed to four interceptions, while also serving as their second-leading rusher with 425 yards and another seven scores. In that Liberty Bowl battle against the Razorbacks, the junior erupted for 565 of the ‘Hawks’ 603 total yards, with a hand in all but one of their seven touchdowns in the triple-overtime thriller. Even with Daniels a late scratch due to stiffness in his back, Kansas eventually found their rhythm in last weekend’s 48-17 thumping of Missouri State. Trailing 7-10 early in the second quarter, the hosts put their foot on the gas and ran off twenty unanswered points before ending the final stanza with three consecutive touchdown drives. Leipold’s charges amassed 521 total yards on twenty-seven first downs, including 245 yards via the run on thirty-eight carries. Pressed into service at the last minute, Bean was more than solid in completing 22-of-28 passes for 276 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while (Junior Tailback) Devin Neal led the way with ninety-four rushing yards and two touchdowns (1 receiving) on just sixteen touches. Four different players rushed for at least forty yards and a touchdown, while (Junior Wideouts) Lawrence Arnold and Quentin Skinner each ended the affair with exactly seventy-seven yards on four receptions.
From a betting perspective, Kansas went 7-5-1 against the spread last season, and are currently 11-14-1 in that regard since Leipold took over back in 2021. They are 4-2 against the spread as a home favorite, while posting a 4-4 mark against non-conference opponents. The Jayhawks are 3-6-1 against the spread in their last ten games dating back to last year, though have flipped that record in their last ten contests at David Booth, covering six, losing three, and pushing one. However, bettors be wary that this is a team that is currently embroiled in a five-game losing streak against the spread overall. Tonight’s matchup with Illinois marks their first encounter since the ‘Hawks hammered them 47-7 all the way back in 1968, though in more recent news, this affair marks just the fourth time that they’ve even faced Big Ten competition since 2008; KU is 2-1 straight-up in those games, including a perfect 3-0 versus the spread, with their last example being a 55-14 drubbing of Rutgers in 2018, in which they were a 2-point home favorite. On the injury front, the biggest update centers upon Daniels, who has been given the green light from the medical staff to make his season debut for the Jayhawks, while the Receiving Corps could possibly be down a pair of pass-catchers in the form of juniors, Luke Grimm and Tanaka Scott. The duo combined for sixty receptions, 732 yards, and six touchdowns a year ago, with Grimm hauling in a score in that aforementioned opener against Missouri State. Scott is currently dealing with a lingering hamstring strain, while Grimm has been labeled with an undisclosed malady. Looking ahead, Kansas will hit the road for the first time this season as they head to Reno for an affair with Nevada, before coming home for a date with BYU, with the Big XII schedule set to begin with a journey to Austin, which should bring back memories of that insane 57-56 overtime thriller that served as the springboard for Leipold’s era.