7:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Alabama -7.0, Over/Under: 54.5
A rematch of one of last season’s premier non-conference matchups is on tap tonight from Tuscaloosa, as the (No. 11) Texas Longhorns are out for revenge against the (No. 3) Alabama Crimson Tide under the bright lights of Bryant-Denny Stadium. Before they officially join the SEC next year, Texas (1-0, 0-0 in Big XII) will be looking to bid farewell to the league that they’ve called home since 1996, but not before earning one final Big XII Title. In truth, the Longhorns have been preparing for this inevitable transition for years now, which is a notion that was made loud and clear upon hiring (Head Coach) Steve Sarkisian back in 2021. Needless to say, the 49-year-old has enjoyed quite the coaching career thus far, rising to prominence as an offensive assistant during USC’s dynastic run during the mid-2000s, before two ill-fated reigns as Head Coach of Washington (34-29, .540) and later the Trojans (12-6, .667), with the latter gig being cut short due to his issues with alcohol. Sarkisian (pictured below) would go on to spend the next five years starting from scratch at Alabama (bookending a brief stint with the Atlanta Falcons), working his way up from Offensive Analyst to Offensive Coordinator under tonight’s opposite number, Nick Saban, winning a National Championship with the Crimson Tide in 2020. Charged with revitalizing a program that had continuously tripped over its own feet under the previous two regimes, Sarkisian has the ‘Horns headed in the right direction; after a 5-7 finish in his first season that featured their first six-game losing streak since 1956, Sark’s troops bounced back in 2022 with an 8-5 campaign that featured a near-upset of (No. 1) Alabama, a narrow 19-20 loss as a 21-point home underdog. With the game tied at 10-10 heading into halftime, Texas lost their starting Quarterback, Quinn Ewers to injury, with the affair turning into a defensive struggle between the two schools. A late Bert Auburn field goal (49 yards) gave the hosts the lead with just over a minute left to play, though that would prove to be too much time left for ‘Bama, who drove downfield and stole the victory via a 33-yard field goal of their own. It was an encouraging sign that the Longhorns could indeed battle the mighty Tide before joining them in the SEC, with Sarkisian overseeing the transition of the roster into one that could compete with such heavyweights. And that brings us to this year’s team, which is one of the most experienced in the country, returning sixteen starters, including ten on an offense that looks to be explosive. At Quarterback, Sarkisian landed the nation’s most-prized prospect, Arch Manning (nephew of Peyton and Eli), though it appears that he’ll bide his time for at least this fall behind the aforementioned Ewers, who after transferring from Ohio State, completed 58.1% of his passes for 2,177 yards on 7.4 yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns and six interceptions, despite missing three games following that injury against the Tide. The Sophomore has plenty of talent around him even without (2023 fifth overall pick) Bijan Robinson, who took home the Doak Walker Trophy, given to the nation’s top Running Back. The Defense, particularly the Line, is packed with depth and athleticism, which was on display in that previous meeting with Alabama, relegating the visitors to 374 total yards with a pair of sacks, controlling the line of scrimmage through long stretches of play. Texas got off to a strong start last weekend, thrashing Rice in a 37-10 victory in Austin; the home side outgained the visitors 458-176 in total yardage, with twenty-four first downs opposed to eight, while enjoying a +3 advantage in turnovers. Sure, there were some issues finishing drives during the second quarter as they settled for three straight Auburn field goals, but they nonetheless took residence in the end zone during the third period, scoring three consecutive touchdowns. Ewers was stellar, completing 19-of-30 passes for 260 yards and three scores, while rushing for another touchdown to punctuate that monster third stanza. Without Robinson, the duo of (Sophomore Tailbacks) Jonothan Brooks and Jaydon Blue combined for 107 yards on twenty-two carries, while (Junior Receiver) Xavier Worthy led the way with seven receptions for ninety yards. Defensively, (Junior Linebacker) Jaylan Ford and (Sophomore Defensive Back) Austin Jordan each had an interception of the Owls.
From a betting perspective, Texas is a middling 13-13 against the spread during Sarkisian’s tenure in Austin, having yet to cover as a road underdog in three tries, while posting a 5-3 mark against the spread versus non-conference opponents. Last weekend’s drubbing of Rice saw them narrowly miss the cover as a 35-point home favorite. Dating back to last season, the Longhorns are 5-5 against the spread over their past ten contests, while putting together a 4-6 record in that regard in their last ten trips away from Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Being an underdog hasn’t be advantageous for those betting on Sarkisian & Co, who have covered just one of their last five outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers, while dropping seven of ten overall. Looking to tonight’s matchup, these schools met eight times between 1902-1982 with Texas holding a commanding 7-0-1 advantage, though this encounter will mark just their second since they were hammered in the 2009 BCS National Championship Game (37-21). On the injury front, (Freshman Tailback) C.J. Baxter is listed as probable after exiting last weekend’s victory over Rice with tender ribs. Baxter, the No. 4 Running Back in the 2023 Recruiting Class, is expected to play a larger role in the ‘Horns Backfield moving forward following a lukewarm debut of thirty-eight yards on five carries versus the Owls. Following tonight’s trip to Tuscaloosa, Texas will face one more non-conference opponent (Wyoming) before officially beginning their Big XII farewell, making the short trip to battle Baylor in Waco. Perhaps it was a parting gift from the conference, but the Longhorns will face all the other top teams in the Big XII, including Kansas and (No. 18) Oklahoma in the ensuing weeks of the schedule.
Meanwhile, most schools need to rebuild every few years, whereas the elite programs such as Alabama (1-0,0-0 in SEC) have mastered the art of reloading. Now in his seventeenth season in Tuscaloosa, (Head Coach) Nick Saban has seen it all and done it all, amassing an insane 195-27 record (.878), leading the Crimson Tide to eight SEC Titles and a staggering SIX National Championships. However, we have a feeling that he would be the first to tell you that his team is coming off a serious “down” year; it speaks to the success and expectations of a program that an 11-2 campaign that featured a comfortable bowl victory and a No. 5 ranking in the final AP Poll could be seen as a disappointment. Furthermore, they struggled uncharacteristically on the road, while the defense shipped 130.0 rushing yards per game (up from 86.0 in 2021), including a dismal 318 versus Auburn, with thirty-eight sacks (down from 57 in 2021). With that being said, such is the way at ‘Bama, where it is literally Natty or bust at this point. Ranked fourth overall coming into this season, Saban (pictured below) has had some serious work to do as far as reloading is concerned, notably in the form of the voids left by (2021 Heisman) Bryce Young and (Nagurski, Lombardi, and Bednarik winner) Will Robinson, who were arguably the best offensive and defensive players in the country, selected first and third overall in last spring’s NFL Draft. It is more than that though, as the 71-year-old has just ten starters (five apiece on offense and defense) returning to Bryant-Denny Stadium this fall, while also having to replace both his Offensive and Defensive Coordinators; (OC) Bill O’Brien returned to the NFL, while (DC) Pete Golding was let go following last season’s “dip”. Replacing them are Tommy Rees and Kevin Steele, with the former serving as Notre Dame’s OC over the last three seasons, while a familiar face returns to Tuscaloosa to helm the defense, Kevin Steele comes home where he was Saban’s first DC back in 2007. Rees’ arrival is the interesting one, as Saban searched the country for a coordinator that could bring a more ground-and-pound philosophy to the attack after years of the spread passing game. As far as personnel is concerned, (Sophomore Quarterback) Jalen Milroe is the first to fill Young’s shoes, having acquainted himself to the fanbase in last weekend’s 56-7 bludgeoning of Middle Tennessee State, 242 total yards and FIVE touchdowns, becoming the first QB in school history to throw for three scores and rush for two more in the same game. (Notre Dame transfer) Tyler Buchner and (Redshirt Freshman) Ty Simpson also saw action, with the former rushing for a 9-yard score early in the fourth quarter. It will be interesting to see how this position group plays out, for while Milroe is a logical choice as a dual threat behind an inexperienced Offensive Line returning just two starters, Buchner arrived alongside Rees with the inside track on the new OC’s scheme, while Simpson was the third-ranked QB prospect in the 2022 Recruiting Class. Last Saturday’s performance was a balanced one from Alabama, who passed for 226 yards and rushed for another 205, with (Receivers) Isaiah Bond and Jermaine Burton combining for eight receptions and 138 yards with a touchdown apiece, while Milroe led the team with forty-six rushing yards, followed by (Tailbacks) Jace McClellan and Roydell Williams with thirty-nine and thirty-six yards respectively. Defensively, the Blue Raiders could do little to test the Crimson Tide, who relegated them 211 total yards on thirteen first downs, including a paltry 133 yards on 24-of-35 passing, with three sacks and a pair of turnovers.
From a betting perspective, Alabama is 120-96-4 against the spread under Saban’s leadership, including a 57-48-3 mark as a home favorite, along with a 43-35-1 record versus non-conference opponents. Dating back to last season, the Crimson Tide are 4-5-1 against the spread in their last ten outings, while posting a 6-3-1 mark in that regard over their last ten contests in Tuscaloosa. Furthermore, they have covered just four of their last ten games when favored by the oddsmakers, though are riding a four-game win streak against the spread after relinquishing 170 or fewer passing yards in the previous game, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup with the Longhorns, Saban & Co carry a whopping 57-game win streak versus non-conference opponents into this affair, though that nearly came to an end as Young’s late heroics led them to avoid the upset in last fall’s encounter. This is the Tide’s first time hosting a Power-Five non-conference opponent since 2010, owning a commanding 13-2-1 record in such encounters. Tonight’s contest also pits Saban against another of the growing list of his former assistant coaches, having narrowly beaten Sarkisian in last season’s meeting in Austin. Over the course of his career, Saban is an insane 28-2 straight-up against his former lieutenants. On the injury front, the defense could be without a pair of Safeties in the Secondary, with Malachi Moore and Jaylen Key both listed as questionable with unspecified ailments. Owning twenty starts, Moore is the most experienced member of the defensive backfield, while Key logged an interception in the victory over Middle Tennessee State. Following tonight’s showdown with Texas, ‘Bama will hit the road for a battle with South Florida before beginning their SEC schedule with another of Saban’s former assistants, Lane Kiffen of Ole Miss.