4:25 PM EST, FOX – Line: Bears -1.5, Over/Under: 41.5
What better way to open a season than with the league’s oldest rivalry, as the Green Bay Packers are set to embark on a new era at Quarterback in this encounter with the new-look Chicago Bears, who hope to improve upon a disappointing campaign that saw them finish with the worst record in the NFL. It is common knowledge that Quarterback is by far and away the most important position in football, with stability under center going a long way towards sustained success. The Packers have been one of the shield’s longest advocates of this, with the last thirty years being largely dominated by a pair of Hall of Fame Quarterbacks. Now, it is back to the future in Green Bay, as the franchise attempts to repeat the successful succession of one signal-caller to another; back in 2008, the Pack shipped away (three-time MVP and Super Bowl Champion) Brett Favre to the Jets, while passing the torch to Aaron Rodgers, who would go on to win four MVP awards and a Lombardi Trophy of his own during his eighteen years in East Wisconsin. Fastforward to the present, and it is Rodgers who finds himself heading to the Big Apple, with the club handing the reins to his understudy, Jordan Love, who has been patiently waiting for his opportunity to start for two years. Drafted twenty-sixth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft to eventually replace Rodgers, we haven’t seen a whole lot of the Utah State product, who has featured sparingly in ten games (starting once) in which he has completed 60.2% of his passes for 606 yards on 6.78 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and interceptions apiece. That’s not the biggest sample size to go on, but then again, his predecessor saw even less action than that in the three years that he waited behind Favre. So, will history once again repeat itself in Green Bay? Well, it is up to (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur to find out. The 43-year-old deserves a lot of credit for his work with the Packers, modernizing the offense and helping Rodgers win back-to-back MVP awards, amassing a stellar 47-19 record (.712) and three NFC North titles along the way. However, as is often the case with generational QBs and their coaches, the ongoing question is how much each side benefitted from the other and how will a breakup affect them? Indeed, while it appears that this franchise could be set to follow in the footsteps of the current Patriots, there is reason to believe that LaFleur & Co will forge their own path into this bold, new era. Keep in mind that Love (pictured below) isn’t a rookie making his NFL debut, he’s been working with the coaching staff for two years now for this moment, while the team around him is built to facilitate the growth of a young Quarterback. Green Bay shifted to a more run-oriented approach offensively last season, averaging 124.3 yards per game (15th Overall) on 4.6 yards per carry (12th Overall), with the tandem of (veteran Tailbacks) Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon complementing each other beautifully in a thunder-and-lightning partnership. Granted, this shift was in large part to an inexperienced Receiving Corps, but even that position group slowly grew into a productive unit as the season progressed. And then there is the defense, which has been a point of emphasis for LaFleur and (General Manager) Brian Gutekunst throughout their tenure together. The Packers have invested heavily on this side of the football, despite lukewarm results; after ranking ninth overall in total defense in 2020 and 2021, the cheeseheads dropped to seventeenth in that particular category last year, shipping 336.5 total yards per game, proving particularly porous against the run (139.5, 26th Overall). This is one of the younger units in the NFL, with just six players owning six or more years of experience, with the train of thought being that last year’s regression was attributed to growing pains and that they are primed to make a leap this fall. Running the ball and playing sound defense is the logical approach when you have a young, unproven Quarterback on your hands, making for what should be an interesting campaign as Love looks to make his mark.
From a betting perspective, the Packers were a middling 8-9 against the spread last season and were 3-2 as underdog away from Lambeau Field. Dating back to the previous campaign, Green Bay has covered six of their last ten games overall, while flipping the script with four covers in the last ten road trips. With that said, being an underdog has been good to these cheeseheads, who are 8-2 over their last ten contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers. However, this evening’s showdown with the Bears will mark the first time in seven meetings that they haven’t been favored, though this has generally been a sweet spot for them; LaFleur’s troops have covered four of their last five in this series as an underdog. Then again, the Packers have OWNED their NFC North rivals of late, winning NINE of their last ten encounters straight-up and covering the spread on eight occasions during that span. Last year’s meeting at Soldier Field ended in a comfortable 28-19 victory for the Pack, who despite trailing 0-10 in the first quarter, rallied back to outscore the home side 18-0 in the final period of play. The aforementioned Dillon led the effort with ninety-three rushing yards and a score on eighteen carries, while the visitors enjoyed great success on the ground all around with 175 yards on thirty-two rushes. On the injury front, there are more than a few question marks for LaFleur & Co to answer, as (Sophomore Wideouts) Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs both pulled up lame during practice this week with tender hamstrings, with the former out of action this weekend, while the latter is labeled questionable to participate. This is late twist for the beginning of the Love Era, for the youth and inexperience of the Receiving Corps was a major storyline last season, with this duo expected to help ease their quarterback’s transition to the starting role, particularly after the departure of (veteran Wideout) Allen Lazard in free agency. However, the injury bug isn’t exclusive to the offense in this case, as (Defensive End) Rashan Gary is questionable to make his return following an ACL tear suffered last November, though the same cannot be said of (Cornerback) Eric Stokes, who is out indefinitely recuperating from Lisfranc surgery.
Meanwhile, the Bears hope that their growing pains are indeed behind them as they prepare to begin their second season under the current regime headlined by (Head Coach) Matt Eberflus and (General Manager) Ryan Poles. Transparency was the policy last offseason, as Eberflus and Poles made no illusions that 2022 would serve as a proverbial Year Zero for a team that underwent more roster turnover than any other in the league, while eschewing the opportunity for quick solutions in free agency. As a result, Chicago finished with the worst record in the NFL (3-14) on the strength of a very one-dimensional offense that ranked first in rushing (177.3) and dead-last in passing (152.8), and a defense that shipped more points than any other team (27.2), which was also the most in franchise history. However, taking a flier on last season appears to have positioned them to make a sizeable leap this fall, as Eberflus and Poles entered the offseason with the most cap space in the league along with the number one overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. So, what have they done to improve these fledgling Monsters of the Midway, you ask? Well, the first thing they did was put all that cap space to use, bolstering the defense with free agents such as (Linebackers) Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards along with (Defensive Linemen) DeMarcus Walker, Andrew Billings, and Yannick Ngakoue, while the offense added the criminally underrated D.J. Moore to the Receiving Corps via trade with the Panthers. The train of thought is that Moore, who logged 364 catches, 5,201 yards, and twenty-one touchdowns despite less-than-stellar QB play during his five years in Carolina, will help to facilitate the growth of his new Quarterback, Justin Fields, who enters a crucial third season in the Windy City. Drafted eleventh overall by the previous regime, Fields (pictured below) improved upon a dreadful rookie campaign, as (Offensive Coordinator) Luke Getsy opted to unleash the 24-year-old as a rusher; Fields rushed for a QB-record 1,143 yards on a league-best 7.1 yards per carry and eight touchdowns, with the bulk of those yards coming after the first five games. However, as effective as he was running the ball, it was a different story passing it; though it was marginal, Fields showed growth in this department, completing 60.4% of his passes for 2,242 yards on 5.05 net yards per attempt, with seventeen touchdowns and eleven interceptions, culminating in a QBR of 56.3. The franchise added (young Receiver) Chase Claypool in a trade with the Steelers at last year’s deadline, who along with Moore completely transforms the Receiving Corps into a far more threatening group. For what it is worth, it appears that Eberflus and Poles are all in on Fields as their franchise Quarterback, for in holding the first pick in last April’s draft, they had their choice of any of premier talents available to them. Instead of placing their trust in Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson, the brain trust opted to stick with Fields and trade their pick to the Panthers in exchange for not just Moore and Carolina’s first two picks (9th and 61st overall), but their first-round pick next spring, which from the looks of things should be somewhere in the top-10 (sorry, Panthers fans), positioning them for further flexibility down the road. The Bears used that pick to trade back once more to tenth overall, ultimately selecting (Tennessee Tackle) Darnell Wright in an effort to improve an Offensive Line that shipped FIFTY-FIVE sacks of Fields, the most in the NFL last season. Depth in the trenches was a major problem for Chicago in 2022, and from what we’ve seen in training camp, it could also be an issue in the early stages of the schedule. However, if they can gel into a more cohesive unit and keep Fields from running for his life on every other snap, then this offense could be borderline explosive, which would go a long way towards these Bears ascending the ranks in what appears to be a wide-open NFC North.
From a betting perspective, the Bears finished with the league’s worst record last season and their ledger against the spread wasn’t much better, covering just five times in 2022, including a 2-7 mark at Soldier Field. As you can imagine, they weren’t favored often, failing to cover the only two games in which they were giving up points to their opponent. Dating back to the previous campaign, Chicago is just 2-8 against the spread over their last ten contests, while sporting a 1-4 record in that regard in their last five outings at home. As we covered earlier, they’ve really struggled against the Packers of late, winning only ONCE in their last ten meetings straight-up, while covering the line in just two of those encounters. They were an underdog in each of their two conflicts last season, a 10-27 loss at Lambeau Field (+10.5) and that aforementioned 19-28 loss in the Windy City (+3.5). In the former, the visitors led 7-3 after one quarter only to succumb to a 21-0 run by the hosts in the second period, while the latter encounter saw them once again squander and early lead as Green Bay outscored them 18-0 in the final frame of play. Fields hasn’t enjoyed much success against the cheeseheads, losing all four matchups and completing 63.5% of his passes for 722 yards on 6.7 net yards per attempt with more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (3). However, he has been successful rushing the football against their defense, amassing 208 yards and a pair of scores on a healthy 7.17 yards per carry, though he has fumbled the rock twice (losing one). On the injury front, Eberflus & Co are dealing with issues of their own, as (Defensive Backs) Eddie Jackson and Jaquan Brisker are probable to participate in tonight’s affair with respective ankle and groin ailments, while the aforementioned DeMarcus Walker may have to postpone his debut with the team due to a sore calf muscle. With that said, the Offensive Line, which has been a weak link in Chicago for years now, figures to be taxed of depth as (young Linemen) Teven Jenkins and Doug Kramer will both begin the campaign on injured reserve with various maladies.