8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Eagles -7.0, Over/Under: 48.5
Week Two kicks with a matchup of division winners who failed to live up to expectations in their respective openers, as the Minnesota Vikings look to avoid falling into an 0-2 hole against the reigning NFC Campion, Philadelphia Eagles, from Lincoln Financial Field. For those you who have been riding the bandwagon of the Vikings (0-1, T-Last in NFC North) being paper tigers last season, last weekend’s disappointing opener against the Bucs must have served as sweet validation. Indeed, Minnesota was a curious case last year, posting a sterling 13-4 record resulting in their first division title since 2017, though nonetheless managed to be outscored by their opponents over the totality of the campaign (424-427). Those four losses were particularly disappointing, as (Head Coach) Kevin O’Connell’s charges were outscored by a combined NINETY-THREE points in those outings, setting up a 24-31 loss to the Giants in the Wild Card Round, in which the hosts shipped 431 total yards, a performance that hardly came as a shock to anyone who had been watching them throughout the season. In an attempt to remedy the situation, O’Connell and (General Manager) Kwesi Adofo-Mensah went out and hired Brian Flores to coordinate in the defense, which was met with rave reviews around the league. Many felt that Flores received a raw deal in his ousting from the Dolphins, while his lawsuit against the league and several organizations kept the former Head Coach from getting another job last fall despite their being many openings. Dating back to his time with the Patriots, the 42-year-old has been associated with strong defensive play, with Miami ranking sixth in points allowed back in 2020. However, if last weekend’s 17-20 defeat at home to the Buccaneers was any indication, there is still plenty of work for him to do with these Northmen. In front of a packed U.S. Bank Stadium on an afternoon in which they were honoring the late Bud Grant, the Vikings failed to inspire much confidence as the game slipped out of their grasp in the second half. Tied 10-10 at halftime, the visitors turned the tables with a marathon 16-play drive to take a 17-10 lead, and while Minnesota managed to eventually respond with a similar drive of their own, they simply couldn’t get Tampa off the field, leading to the game-winning field goal midway through the fourth quarter. Apart from that 16-play, 75-yard drive, O’Connell & Co had just two other possessions in the second half, both of which were three-and-outs, while the Bucs ran a total of forty-one plays for 167 yards in comparison to Minny’s eighty-one. In the end, the offense amassed 369 total yards, though the bulk of it came on the strength of (veteran Quarterback) Kirk Cousins and (All-Pro Wideout) Justin Jefferson (pictured below), with the former completing 33-of-44 passes for 344 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while the latter hauled in nine receptions on twelve targets for 150 yards, though most of that total came in the first half. It was a one-dimensional showing for the Vikes, who after parting ways with (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Dalvin Cook could muster just forty-one rushing yards on seventeen carries, behind an Offensive Line that is already dealing with health issues (more on that shortly). Looking at their roster, Minnesota is built to throw the football (A LOT), and given how little that defense has improved, it appears that they will be relying upon the Cousins/Jefferson tandem to bail them out of trouble often this fall…
From a betting perspective, the Vikings were just 7-11 against the spread in their first season under O’Connell, which is expected given that they found themselves in so many close games. That trend continued with last weekend’s loss to the Buccaneers, whom they were favored by 4.5 points against. Dating back to last year, Minnesota is a disappointing 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games overall (including playoffs), while posting a 4-5-1 mark in their last ten trips away from Minneapolis and have failed to cover the line in three consecutive games as an underdog. As for tonight’s matchup with the Eagles, these Northmen are 4-6 against the spread in their last ten encounters overall, though have covered just two of their last ten treks to Lincoln Financial Field. Furthermore, this team is 3-7 as an underdog in their last ten meetings with Philadelphia. In fact, these franchises met in a week two primetime battle last season; the birds ran right through the purple people eaters under the bright lights of Monday Night Football in a one-sided 24-7 affair, in which Cousins & Co could manage just 264 total yards of offense, with the veteran QB sacked twice and picked off on three occasions. Last year’s embarrassing showing aside, Cousins has generally handled himself rather well against the Eagles, posting a 6-4 record with a completion percentage of 66.1% for 297.7 yards per game on a healthy 7.36 net yards per attempt, with twenty-three total touchdowns in comparison to a dozen turnovers (3 lost fumbles). For those of you wondering, he’s been marginally better on Thursday nights than he has on Monday nights; Cousins owns a 4-5 record with a completion percentage of 68.5% for 304.1 yards on 7.47 net yards per attempt, with seventeen touchdowns (though TWELVE interceptions) when preparing for battle on a short week. On the injury front, the Offensive Line could be a serious issue for O’Connell, as (Center) Garrett Bradbury and (Tackle) Christian Darrisaw are both listed as questionable for tonight’s contest, with the former being held out of last Sunday’s opener due to stiffness in his back, while the latter sprained his ankle in the loss to Tampa Bay. This situation could prove to be problematic against a ferocious Defensive Line that was dominant in their opener at New England. Speaking of defensive fronts, (Edge-Rusher) Marcus Davenport, who was signed via free agency in an attempt to bolster that woeful defense, was also held out of last weekend’s clash due to an ailing ankle of his own, and is questionable to participate in this trip to the Linc.
Meanwhile, 2023 is all about unfinished business for the Eagles (1-0, T-1st in NFC East), who after narrowly meeting defeat in Super Bowl LVII are hellbent on reaching their goal. However, as we’ve seen on so many occasions in the National Football League, success leads to attrition, with few teams hit harder in this regard than Philadelphia. Indeed, (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni parted ways with both his Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, as Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon are now leading the Colts and Cardinals respectively. The roster was raided as well, with (leading rusher) Miles Sanders, (veteran Guard) Isaac Seumalo, (Defensive Tackle) Javon Hargrave, (Linebackers) Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards, and (Safeties) Marcus Epps and C.J. Gardner-Johnson all leaving the City of Brotherly Love for greener pastures in free agency. With that being said, (longtime General Manager) Howie Roseman has done a tremendous job of ensuring the cupboard remains far from bare, with readymade replacements set to fill the void left by so many quality starters. (Young Tailback) D’Andre Swift was added in a draft day trade to bolster the Backfield, while (Rookie Defensive Tackle) Jalen Carter was arguably the best overall player in last April’s NFL Draft, only to fall to them at no. nine overall due to off-field concerns. (Quarterback Coach) Brian Johnson replaces Steichen as chief play-caller, while Sean Desai fills the shoes leftover by Gannon, coordinating a defense that amassed a league-best SEVENTY sacks a year ago. With so many moving parts, there is bound to be learning curve and fortunately for these birds, the early schedule in conducive to figuring these things out, which was absolutely the case in last weekend’s 25-20 victory over the Patriots. This one was a bit of a headscratcher, folks, as the visiting Eagles raced out to an early 16-0 lead largely on the strength of a pair of New England turnovers; (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Darius Slay picked off Mac Jones on the hosts’ first drive of the evening, returning it seventy yards to the house. Then, on the first play of the ensuing possession, (Sophomore Defensive Tackle) Jordan Davis jarred the football loose from Ezekiel Elliott, with (Linebacker) Zach Cunningham recovering it deep in Pats’ territory. Five plays later, (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Jalen Hurts found (young Receiver) DeVonta Smith for a 5-yard score. However, that would be about it for Philadelphia’s offense as the home side managed to wrestle momentum from them in a driving rainstorm; Jones & Co found their rhythm with back-to-back touchdown drives in second quarter, while limiting Philly to four consecutive three-and-outs to end the first half. After intermission, it was clear that Sirianni’s troops were out of synch, as they were forced to settle for three straight field goals, before a fumble from Hurts (pictured below) and a turnover on downs put themselves in peril in the fourth period. Thankfully, Desai’s defense stepped up to keep the Pats at bay stopping them on fourth down twice in the last four minutes. In the end, the Eagles were held to just 251 total yards of offense, rushing for ninety-seven yards on twenty-five carries, while hurts completed 22-of-33 passes for just 170 yards and a touchdown, while picking up another thirty-seven yards on nine rushes and that lost fumble. (Pro-Bowl Wideout) A.J. Brown reeled in seven receptions on ten targets for seventy-nine yards, while Smith added seven catches on targets of his own for forty-seven yards and that aforementioned score. Defensively, the visitors were slow to adapt to a sound gameplan from the Patriots, who repeatedly attacked the middle of the field (I.E., the new Linebackers and Safeties), en route to compiling 382 total yards, 316 of which came through the air. With that said, they still managed to get pressure on Jones, sacking him twice, hitting him seven times, and pressuring the passer on a whopping TWENTY-TWO occasions. If that opener taught us anything about these birds, it is that there are still plenty of wrinkles that need to be ironed out on both sides of the football, though the fact that they still managed to leave Foxborough with a victory is a reminder as to how talented they still are.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles were a middling 10-10 against the spread last season (including playoffs), while covering the number in exactly half of their last ten games, including last weekend’s victory over the Patriots, whom they were favored by 3.5 points against. Philadelphia is 6-4 against the spread in their last ten games contested at Lincoln Financial Field, while matching that mark over their past ten outings as a favorite. Furthermore, Sirianni’s troops are 5-1-1 in their last seven games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points, which is the case tonight. In regard to this matchup with the Vikings, Philly is 6-4 versus the spread over their last ten meetings, while taking all but two of the last ten encounters at the Linc, both straight-up and against the spread. The same can be said when the oddsmakers have favored them in this series, covering and winning outright seven of the last ten affairs between. When they met on this same field last September, the birds (-3) dominated the game, outgaining the Northmen 486-264, on the strength of 163 rushing yards, fifty-seven of which were attributed to Hurts, who also passed for 331 yards with three total touchdowns. Thanks to that disparity in rushing yards, the hosts possessed the football for a commanding 36:14, running eleven more plays over the course of the night. (Defensive Linemen) Fletcher Cox and Josh Sweat were a pair wrecking balls in the trenches, combining for three tackles for loss, a pair of sacks, four QB hits, and seven pressures, with the former also stripping Cousins of the football. On the injury front, Cox is listed as questionable with tender ribs, while the tandem of (veteran Cornerback) James Bradberry and (Tailback) Kenneth Gainwell have both been downgraded to doubtful on this short week, with Bradberry in concussion protocol and Gainwell dealing with ailing ribs of his own.