5:00 PM EST, Peacock – Line: Washington -16.0, Over/Under: 57.5
Before it becomes a Big Ten Staple starting next season, the (No. 8) Washington Huskies travel to East Lansing to battle the Michigan State Spartans in a rematch of last year’s showdown in Seattle. Don’t look now, but things are heating up in the Pacific Northwest, where Washington (2-0, 0-0 in Pac-12) is looking like a problem in these last days of the Pac-12 as we’ve come to know it. After a dismal 4-8 finish that saw the program part ways with (former Head Coach) Jimmy Lake before the schedule even reached its conclusion, the Huskies appear to have made an excellent hire in the form of Kalen DeBoer, who proved to be a home run in his first season in Seattle. After a stellar run as Sioux Falls Head Coach (67-3), the 48-year-old enjoyed successful tenures as Offensive Coordinator at Fresno State (2017-2018) and Indiana (2019), before returning to Fresno as HC, where he led the Bulldogs to a 12-6 record. In his first year on the job, he guided UW to an 11-2 finish that featured an offensive revolution that turned them into one of the most prolific units in the country. In 2021, the Huskies averaged just 21.5 points per game on 323 total yards, only to skyrocket to 39.7 points per game on 516 total yards last year. DeBoer used his ties to the Hoosiers to lure (Senior Quarterback) Michael Penix Jr away from Bloomington, which has proven to be a masterstroke for both coach and QB; Penix (pictured below) completed 65.3% of his passes for a school-record 4,641 yards on 8.4 yards per attempt, with thirty-one touchdowns opposed to eight interceptions, en route to finishing eighth overall in Heisman voting. Getting him to stay in Seattle for one more season is an absolute coup for DeBoer, whose offense appears like it can reach another level with the Heisman candidate pulling the trigger. He has plenty of weapons around him too, particularly a loaded Receiving Corps littered with talent. From 2016 to 2021, the Huskies failed to have a single Wideout post a 1,000-yard season, though in DeBoer’s first campaign they had not one, but two. (Junior Receivers) Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan both topped seventy receptions, 1,000 yards, and seven touchdowns, combining for 154 catches, 2,243 yards, and sixteen touchdowns in 2022, while (Sophomore) Ja’Lynn Polk found enough room for himself with forty-one receptions, 694 yards and six scores of his own. All three of them return this season, giving Penix a continuity in the passing game that few Quarterbacks enjoy. Through two games thus far (albeit against lesser competition), Washington’s attack continues to look very threatening, averaging a whopping 49.5 points per game on 565.5 total yards, including 472.0 through the air on a very healthy 11.5 yards per attempt. Penix has completed 73.1% of his passes for 859 yards, eight touchdowns, and an interception, while the trio of Odunze, McMillan, and Polk have each cleared eight catches, 180 yards, and a score thus far. The only question that remains is that of the ground game, which is not only replacing last year’s leading rusher, Wayne Taulapapa (887 yards, 11 TD), but will be without their next leading man, Cameron Davis (552 yards, 13 TD) for the entire season due to a knee injury. Washington hasn’t produced much via the run thus far (though they haven’t had to), churning out 93.5 yards per game on just 20.5 attempts. DeBoer would like to see someone emerge from the Backfield, with (Sophomore Tailback) Will Nixon leading the team with seventy-eight yards on twelve carries. Balance may not be an issue now, but they’ll need to mix things up in an effort to keep defenses honest as they get deeper into their schedule (more on that in a bit).
From a betting perspective, Washington is 10-5 against the spread under DeBoer, including an unblemished 2-0 mark in that regard this season. UW is 5-5 against the spread over their last ten games dating back to 2022, and they have yet to meet defeat from a spread POV against non-conference competition in six contests under his watch. However, the road has been tricky for the Huskies, who are just 3-7 in their last ten trips away from Seattle, covering only one of their four games as a road favorite dating back to last year. With that being said, they are 5-0-1 in both their last six games overall and in their last six outings after amassing over 280 passing yards in the previous game. However, there is one particular trend working against Penix & Co this weekend; they are a miserable 1-7 in their last eight games as a road favorite of at least 10.5 points, which is the case this evening. Over the course of their history, Washington has handled themselves well versus Big Ten opponents, owning a 50-47-2 all-time record in such encounters, including marks of 12-4 straight-up and 8-8 against the spread since 2000. As for this particular matchup with the Spartans, they lead the all-time series 3-1, covering the last two affairs, including last season’s 39-28 victory at Husky Stadium in which the unranked hosts (-3) laid a beatdown on the eleventh-ranked visitors. UW opened that contest with twenty-two unanswered points before leading 39-14 midway through the fourth quarter, ending the lopsided matchup with very clear advantages in total yards (503-365) and rushing yards (106-42). Penix was fantastic against his former neighbors in the Big Ten, completing 24-of-40 attempts for 397 yards and four touchdowns with zero interceptions, while the aforementioned Polk played the role of recipient with 153 yards and three scores. On the injury front, the Backfield could see some depth issues as (Junior Tailback) Dillon Johnson was held out of action last weekend with an unspecified malady, though he is probable to face Michigan State today. Keep in mind that DeBoer is counting on Johnson to help fill the void left in the wake of Davis’s season-ending injury. Johnson, a transfer from Mississippi State, rushed for twelve yards and a touchdown in the season opener. Furthermore, (Senior Safety) Asa Turner is probable after suffering a hand injury during last weekend’s romp over Tulsa. Looking ahead, Washington will begin their farewell tour through the Pac-12 with a home game next weekend against California before hitting the road to face Arizona. After a bye week they will go to war with (No. 13) Oregon, and while not encountering either (No. 5) USC or (No. 12) Utah last season, the Huskies will battle them in back-to-back weeks come November, which figures to be a crucial period for their prospects of winning the conference and potentially reaching the playoff.
Meanwhile, when it rains it pours, and when it pours in East Lansing it must feel a little more painful, as Michigan State’s (2-0, 0-0 in Big Ten) football program once again finds themselves in the middle of a PR nightmare. Eight years after the school was rocked by the Larry Nasser Scandal, news broke over the weekend that their current Head Football Coach, Mel Tucker, was being suspended over allegations of sexual harassment of a Sexual Assault Awareness Speaker hired by Tucker (pictured below) back in 2021 in large part to raise awareness within the football program, which has a dark history in that regard. The claims were reportedly made last December, and after a private investigation it was recommended that the university hold a hearing to determine whether or not Tucker violated the school’s sexual misconduct policy that is scheduled to begin on October 5th. Tucker has denied any improprieties in the matter, stating that the relationship was both intimate and consensual and that the scheduled hearing is “ridiculously flawed” and a “sham” that is designed for the school to further distance itself from the aforementioned taint of Nasser. Needless to say, from a sporting POV, this is an unfortunate situation for the Spartans, who after freefalling to a disappointing 5-7 finish following a stellar 2021 campaign (11-2, No. 8 in AP Poll), have started this season with two comfortable victories over the likes of Central Michigan (31-7) and Richmond (45-14). Granted, that is hardly stiff competition, but through these two games, they’ve looked strong on both sides of the football; MSU has scored 38.0 points per game on 435.5 total yards, including 291.0 yards via the pass and another 144.5 courtesy of the run, en route to logging a healthy 7.0 yards per play, while yielding a mere 10.5 points on 206.0 total yards. After losing their starting Quarterback and leading Receiver in the offseason, all eyes were going to be on (Offensive Coordinator) Jay Johnson’s offense, which woefully underperformed in 2022, averaging 7.4-fewer points per game and 76-fewer total yards (-66 rush yards) than they did in the previous campaign. (Sophomore Quarterback) Noah Kim emerged as the starter following a competition with (Redshirt Freshman) Katin Houser, and has looked solid thus far, completing 67.9% of his passes for 571 yards on a healthy 10.8 yards per attempt, with five touchdowns and zero interceptions, with (Senior Receiver) Tre Mosely reeling in eight receptions for 123 yards and a score. Johnson’s unit has been aggressive in attacking downfield, with five different pass-catchers averaging over 15.0 yards per reception, including (Freshman Receiver) Antonio Gates Jr., whose first catch of his collegiate career was a 45-yard touchdown in last weekend’s romp over the Spiders, which is sure to make his father (Hall of Fame Tight End, Antonio Sr.) proud. The key thus far has been experience within the trenches, where MSU returns four starting Offensive Linemen and a wealth of talent along the defensive front, where injuries and inexperience took their toll on them a year ago. It will be interesting to see how they hold up in this, their first true test of the campaign, as Washington’s high-powered attack comes to Spartan Stadium. When these sides met last fall, the visitors were torched to the tune of 503 total yards, including nearly 400 through the air. Perhaps no position group has undergone more change over the offseason than the Secondary, which will be counted upon to hold up against Penix & Co. Gone are their top two performers, Ameer Speed and Xavier Henderson with (Defensive Backs Coach) Harlon Barnett expected to have his hands full this weekend. Speaking of Barnett, (Athletic Director) Alan Haller announced earlier this week that the 56-year-old will serve as the school’s Interim Head Coach for the remainder of the season. Barnett joined Tucker’s initial coaching staff back in 2020 after a two-year stint in Tallahassee with Florida State, though is no stranger to East Lansing, having coached there under (former Head Coach) Mark D’Antonio in multiple capacities from 2007 to 2017.
From a betting perspective, Michigan State is 19-13-2 against the spread during the Tucker era, including a 2-0 mark in that regard this season. Dating back to the 2022 campaign, they are 5-4-1 against the spread over their last ten outings, while posting a 6-4 mark in their last ten games contested at Spartan Stadium. Being a dog has been good to them of late, as they’ve covered three of their last five games when receiving points, though it has been a different story when they’ve been a dog in East Lansing, where they’ve owned a 4-4 record against the spread since 2020, including 1-2 last season. Furthermore, they Spartans have covered just one of their last seven contests as an underdog of at least 10.5 points, which is the case tonight. Though they have been excellent in non-conference games during Tucker’s tenure (6-1 ATS), it has been a completely different story versus Pac-12 opponents, bringing a four-game losing streak against the spread into this affair with the Huskies. Of course, MSU was a 3-point underdog in their fateful trip to Seattle last fall, where they were hammered in that aforementioned 28-39 defeat. As we stated earlier, that encounter wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would suggest, folks, as Tucker’s troops trailed 0-22 in the second period and 14-39 later in the fourth quarter, before scoring a pair of garbage time touchdowns to make things look more respectable. Michigan State came into that game ranked eleventh in the AP Poll, only to fall completely out of the rankings as that loss kickstarted a miserable four-game losing streak. On the injury front, there a number of players whose availability is in the balance for this evening’s battle, as (Sophomore Tailback) Jalen Berger, (Junior Linebacker) Darius Snow, and (Defensive Backs) Semar Melvin and Harold Joiner III are all listed as questionable to participate. Berger, who arrived via transfer from Wisconsin last season and was a bit underwhelming with 811 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns in twelve games, has logged sixty-one yards from scrimmage and a score on fourteen touches thus far. Looking ahead, this matchup is the Spartans’ final non-conference outing before the beginning of the Big Ten schedule, which will see them host Maryland next weekend, followed by a trip to (No. 25) Iowa before enjoying a bye week, making for a reasonable stretch for Barnett to settle his team before facing (No. 2) Michigan on October 21st.