8:15 PM EST, ABC – Line: Browns -2.5, Over/Under: 38.5
Week Two comes to a conclusion in Western Pennsylvania, where the Pittsburgh Steelers hope to rely upon their Monday Night magic to bounce back from an embarrassing performance in their opener, as they host the Cleveland Browns, who in turn are looking to keep it rolling with a second straight victory over a division rival. The NFL’s opening weekend was littered with upsets and unpredictable performances, in large part to inclement weather influencing numerous games over the weekend, which includes the Browns (1-0, T-1st in AFC North) convincing 24-3 drubbing of the Bengals in Northern Ohio (more on this affair in a bit). Indeed, there were few teams that could have benefitted more so from a positive start than Cleveland, who endured a lengthy PR nightmare throughout the 2022 campaign. The reason for this was the pursuit and acquisition of (former Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Deshaun Watson, who had missed the entire 2021 season as he dealt with an ongoing saga off the field consisting of over THIRTY women alleging sexual misconduct on his behalf. Mind you, (General Manager) Andrew Berry and (Owners) the Haslem family moved heaven and earth to pry him loose from Houston BEFORE a suspension was even handed down by the league, eventually leading to an eleven-game penalty that more or less ensured a lost season for the player and the franchise. Now with the fallout of that saga in the rearview mirror, it is all about playing football for all parties involved, which is refreshing as we consider the potential of this team this fall. In addition to the return of a controversy-free Watson, the Browns also bright in (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Schwartz to turn around a talented defense that has rarely played to their potential over the past few years. So, with one game in the books, what do we make of these Dawgs, you ask? Well, given that win over their southern neighbors was contested in a rainstorm and driving wind, the fact that Cleveland managed to dominate the matchup should be an encouraging sign. The hosts held considerable advantages in a slew of categories, including total yards (350-142), first downs (21-6), rushing yards (206-75), and time of possession (35:50), despite losing the turnover battle 0-2 and converting just four of their fourteen third downs (28.5%). Schwartz’s defense relegated Cincinnati to punts on each of their first seven possessions of the afternoon, while sacking Joe Burrow twice, hitting him on ten occasions, and pressuring the Pro-Bowler as many times. (Defensive Ends) Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith each logged four hits and pressures of the Quarterback, with the former accounting for one of those sacks. Garrett (pictured below) was none too impressed with the Bengals posturing before the game, as Ja’Marr Chase branded his team as “elves” given their midfield logo. A four-time Pro-Bowler and two-time All-Pro, the 27-year-old has amassed 68.5 sacks over the past six seasons, including thirty-two in the past two, and could very well emerge as a serious DPOY contender under Schwartz’s guidance. As for the offense, Stefanksi opted to keep things grounded given the conditions, totaling FORTY rushes on the day, with (four-time Pro-Bowler) Nick Chubb leading the way with 106 yards on eighteen carries. As for Watson, it was a mixed bag for veteran QB, who completed just 16-of-29 passes for 154 yards, a touchdown and an interception, though proved effective via the run with another forty-five yards and a score on five carries. Keep in mind that this is a guy that led the NFL in passing yards in 2020 (4,823) with 121 total touchdowns from 2017 to 2020, meaning his potential within this offense is much greater than what we have seen thus far.
From a betting perspective, the Browns went a mediocre 8-9 against the spread last season, alternating spread wins and losses over the final six weeks of the campaign. The home team has covered eight of the last ten meetings between these old rivals, including each of the past three encounters. Cleveland is 5-4-1 against the spread over their last ten contests dating back to 2022, while posting a 4-5-1 mark in their last trips away from Northern Ohio, covering four of their last ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. Stefanski’s troops have split their last ten affair with Pittsburgh from a spread POV, though have failed to cover all but one of their last five trips to Acrisure Stadium or as a favorite for that matter. Since he was hired back in 2020, Stefanski is 3-4 straight-up against the Steelers, including a 2-5 ledger against the spread in those games. As for Watson, he has never beaten the Steel Curtain in two tries, completing 67.8% of his passes for an average of 247.0 yards on 7.2 net yards per attempt with four touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while picking up another 24.5 yards per game with his legs. Given that suspension that shortened his debut campaign with the Browns, he only faced Pittsburgh in the season finale, a 14-28 defeat in Western Pennsylvania in which he threw for 230 yards with a pair of touchdowns and interceptions apiece on 19-of-29 passing, while rushing for an additional forty-four yards on six carries. He was, however, sacked a career high SEVEN times. On the injury front, Cleveland is dealing with a lengthy list of bumps and bruises, with some being more significant than others. (Right Tackle) Jack Conklin will miss the rest of the campaign after tearing both his ACL and MCL in the opener, while (Defensive Linemen) Siaki Ika, Maurice Hurst, and Shelby Harris are listed as questionable with various maladies. Ditto for (Left Tackle) Jedrick Wills, who has been hampered by an ailing foot, which could spell trouble against the Steelers’ pass-rush. Furthermore, (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Amari Cooper was a late addition to the injury list with a tender groin that places his availability for tonight’s matchup in the balance. embarrassed
Meanwhile, a number of teams took it on the proverbial chin last weekend, with a strong argument to be made that the Steelers (0-1, T-Last in AFC North) received the worst of it. Simply put, hosting the loaded 49ers is never an enviable proposition whether it’s in an opener or on a short week, which is a notion that was only cemented after Sunday afternoon’s ugly 7-30 loss at Acrisure Stadium. Coming into that affair, there was admittedly a tepid amount of hype regarding Pittsburgh who finished the previous campaign in strong fashion before looking like one of the most improved teams in the league during the preseason. In his first full year as the starter, (Sophomore Quarterback) Kenny Pickett appeared to be poised to make a sizeable leap within an offense that received reinforcements along the Offensive Line and with expected growth at the skill positions. (Head Coach) Mike Tomlin and (General Manager) Omar Khan beefed up the protection plan with (fourteenth overall pick) Broderick Jones and (former Eagles Guard) Isaac Seumalo, while adding a potential playmaker to the defense with the first pick int he second round of last April’s NFL Draft, (Penn State Cornerback) Joey Porter Jr, son of the Steelers legend. Couple all of that with a clean bill of health on both sides of the football, and there was no way that the Steel Curtain could struggle out of the gate for a second consecutive campaign, right? Well…. remember that comment we made about the Niners being a tough opponent? Looking back at last weekend’s drubbing at the hands of San Francisco, it is difficult to imagine Tomlin’s troops getting off to a worse start. Until stringing together a 12-play, 95-yard drive to paydirt just before halftime, the home side had logged no more than three plays on any of their first possessions of the afternoon, totaling -9 yards of offense, with Pickett intercepted at his own 32-yard line. Unfortunately, it wasn’t much better in the second half, as the Steelers gained a modest 158 total yards only to fail to breach the end zone, turning it over on downs twice, bookending another interception of Pickett. In the end, Pittsburgh could muster a mere 198 yards of offense on fifteen first downs, were outrushed 41-188, converted just 5-of-15 third downs (33.3%), and possessed the football for a scant 22:37 of game time. Pickett racked up 2332 yards, a touchdown and those two picks, completing 31-of-46 passes to do so, while suffering FIVE sacks, nine hits, and a staggering TWENTY-FOUR pressures. (Third-year Tailback) Najee Harris found little room to run with thirty-one yards on six carries, while (Sophomore Receiver) George Pickens had a hard time gaining separation en route to five receptions for thirty-six yards. (Tight End) Pat Freiermuth hauled in the lone touchdown from Pickens, but that three-yard catch was his only reception of the afternoon. In what was a VERY forgettable day for Pittsburgh’s defense, (2021 Defensive Player of the Year) T.J. Watt proved to be in midseason form, registering five tackles, three sacks, five hits, and nine pressures, while also forcing a pair of fumbles, one of which he recovered himself. That individual performance would be the lone bright spot in a game that was marred by injuries to a number of Steelers, which we’ll get into in more detail shortly.
From a betting perspective, the Steelers were a pleasant surprise in finishing 10-6-1 against the spread last season, covering six of their last outings overall. Pittsburgh has posted a 5-4-1 mark in that regard over their last ten games contested at Acrisure Stadium, while also putting together a middling profile of 5-5 versus the spread in their last ten outings as an underdog. As we hinted at earlier, the home team has generally had the edge in these matchups of late, with Tomlin’s troops covering the line in six of the last ten affairs between the sides that have taken place in Western Pennsylvania. However, tonight’s meeting is a rare one, as the Steel Curtain are home dogs for just the third time in the last twelve years’ worth of encounters (20+ games); in both cases, the hosts were receiving just one point from the oddsmakers and went on to win outright each time. Furthermore, there are a number of other trends that are working favor of the Black & Yellow, as the Steelers are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games after rushing for fewer than ninety yards in the previous contest, while riding a streak of four consecutive covers when following both an ATS loss and a straight-up defeat by more than fourteen points. Over the course of his career steering the ship, Tomlin is a commanding 24-7-1 against the Browns, while proving to be a near lock under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, where he owns a stellar 19-3 record. The aforementioned Pickett faced their bitter rivals just once during his rookie campaign, completing 13-of-29 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown in last year’s 28-14 finale. On the injury front, Pittsburgh figures to be depleted along the Defensive Line, with (veteran Defensive End) Cameron Heyward set to miss the next six weeks of action after tearing his groin, while Larry Ogunjobi and DeMarvin Leal are each listed as questionable to participate in this affair with respective elbow and foot maladies. Furthermore, (veteran Receiver) Diontae Johnson is expected to be sidelined until mid-October after straining his hamstring in that drubbing at the hands of the Niners last weekend.