7:00 PM EST, FS1 – Line: Wisconsin -6.0, Over/Under: 54.5
It’s Week Four of the season and it is time to shift towards conference play, with the Wisconsin Badgers and Purdue Boilermakers clashing under the bight Friday night lights of Ross-Ade Stadium as two teams beginning new eras under new leadership. Indeed, it appears to be a long-awaited revolution in Madison where Wisconsin (2-1, 0-0 in BIG 10) are evolving under the direction of (Head Coach) Luke Fickell. For three decades, this has been a program that has had a very singular identity and has been very successful for it; from Barry Alvarez (118-75-4) to Bret Bielema (68-24) to Gary Anderson (19-7) to Paul Chryst (67-26), the Badgers set about dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, en route to winning six BIG 10 titles and appearing in TWENTY-ONE consecutive bowls, which is the third-longest streak in the nation. However, they lost their way last season, with their 7-6 finish matching their worst since 2008 as Chryst was relieved of his duties midway through the campaign following a 10-34 drubbing at the hands of Illinois (headed by Bielema) in which they were outrushed 136-2! (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Leonhard finished the season out as the Interim Coach, but would not be chosen for the full-time gig as (Athletic Director) Chris Mcintosh secured the services of Fickell (pictured below), who in turn opted to get a head start and coached his new charges to a 24-17 victory over Oklahoma State in last winter’s Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Needless to say, this is both a bold and inspired hire for a program that has rarely strayed outside of their proverbial trust tree. In six years at Cincinnati, the 50-year-old amassed a stellar 57-18 record (.760), leading the Bearcats to a pair of AAC titles en route to becoming the first Group of 5 school to appear in the College Football Playoff. Furthermore, his history as a longtime assistant at Ohio State (2002-2016) ensures that he is prepared for the elevated competition within the Big 10. However, it has been his hires that have turned heads, particularly on the offensive side of the football, where (Offensive Coordinator) Phil Longo has been tabbed to lead the attack. Coming over from North Carolina, Longo is a disciple of the Air Raid Offense through and through and is expected it to evolve the team’s longstanding ground-and-pound approach to a more spread-out aerial attack. So, with three games in the books, how have the Badgers taken to this transition, you ask? Well, after running an average of 63.6 plays for 363.6 total yards per game last season, Wisconsin has logged 69.7 plays for 440.7 total yards thus far, including 237.0 passing yards on 34.0 attempts, which mark their highest figures in either category in twelve years. With (former QB) Graham Mertz leaving via the Transfer Portal, Fickell used that same avenue to find his replacement, bringing in (SMU transfer) Tanner Mordecai, who Fickell saw firsthand on two occasions in AAC play and has plenty of experience operating within the Air Raid. With twenty-four career starts for the Mustangs, Mordecai was always the choice for QB1 this fall, though appears to still be finding his footing in Madison, where he has completed 67.3% of his passes for 703 yards on 7.0 yards per attempt, with as many touchdowns as interceptions (2), while rushing for another two scores and fifty-nine yards on twenty-two carries. However, before they start sounding the alarms at Camp Randall, Longo hasn’t lost sight of running the football, as Wisconsin has churned out 203.7 yards on a healthy 5.7 yards per carry. The Backfield tandem of (Senior) Chez Mellusi and (Junior) Braelon Allen are one of the best in the country, combining for 3,798 yards and thirty touchdowns over the previous two seasons, with the former churning out 267 yards and four touchdowns and the latter piling up 255 yards and four scores of his own through the first three contests. In last weekend’s 35-14 victory over Georgia Southern, the hosts rallied back from an early 14-7 deficit to finish the affair with TWENTY-EIGHT unanswered points, as Mellusi, Allen, and Mordecai rushed for 191 yards and five touchdowns, proving that pounding that rock will never go out of style in Madison.
From a betting perspective, Wisconsin may have opened the Fickell era 2-1, but they are just 1-2 against the spread through their first three games, dropping each of the first two outings as favorites. They failed to cover a 29-point spread versus Buffalo in the season opener, before being favored by 5.5 points on the road against a very game Washington State side (now ranked 21st in AP Poll) and were beaten convincingly. Fickell’s troops bounced back in their return to Madison last weekend, dumping Georgia Southern in a 35-10 victory as a 20.5-point favorite. Dating back to last season, the Badgers are just 3-6-1 against the spread and 3-7 in that regard in their last ten trips away from Camp Randall Stadium. Friday nights have been good to them of late, as they have covered four of their last five contests on this particular day of the week. This is also a team that has failed to cover each of their last two BIG 10 openers, falling at home to Penn State (10-16) in 2021 before getting ran out of Columbus by Ohio State (21-52) last fall. However, they have utterly dominated this series with Purdue of late, winning SIXTEEN consecutive meetings and covering thirteen of them along the way. The last time that Wisconsin traveled to West Lafayette, they outscored the (No. 25) Boilermakers 17-0 in the fourth quarter en route to securing a 30-13 victory (-3 favorite). The Badgers attempted just eight passes as they bludgeoned the hosts via the run, churning out 297 yards on forty-nine carries, with Allen (140 yards) and Mellusi (149 yards) accounting for all but eight of that total. In last year’s encounter in Madison, they rolled to a comfortable 35-24 win (-1 favorite) after racing out to a 21-3 halftime lead. With Mellusi sidelined due to injury, Allen led the way with 113 rushing yards and a touchdown on sixteen carries, while ripping off a 39-yard reception to boot. On the injury front, Fickell & Co are dealing with their share of bumps and bruises, though the most prominent injury is that of (Junior Center) Jake Renfro, who arrived alongside his Head Coach via transfer from Cincinnati and is dealing with a broken left foot that is expected to keep him out of commission for the foreseeable future. Speaking of the future, Wisconsin will enjoy their bye next week before hosting Rutgers for homecoming and fellow West Division contender, (No. 24) Iowa.
Meanwhile, the reigning BIG 10 West Champions are also starting anew, as Purdue (1-2, 0-0 in BIG 10) is currently finding their way at the beginning of the Ryan Walters era in West Lafayette. Make no mistake, the Boilermakers had overachieved over the past two seasons in which they posted their best finish in two decades in 2021 (9-4), before going 8-6 last year and earning a spot in the BIG 10 Title Game. However, instead of remaining at a program that had finally begun baring fruit following years of patient building, (former Head Coach) Jeff Brohm opted to return to Louisville, both his home and alma mater. (Athletic Director) Mike Bobinski didn’t look far for a replacement, hiring Walters (pictured below) after a stellar season coordinating Illinois’ defense. Serving under the aforementioned Bielema in Champaign, the 37-year-old turned the Illini into one of the nastiest defenses in the country; in 2022, his troops ranked first in the nation in points allowed (12.8), third in total defense (273.5), and first in takeaways (32), including an FBS-high TWENTY-FOUR interceptions, with THREE of his Defensive Backs selected in the first three rounds of last April’s NFL Draft. The Broyles Award finalist is charged with turning around a defense that has shipped over 26.0 points and 400.0 total yards per game in each of the last two seasons, including 279.0+ against the pass over each of the past five campaigns. That may prove to be difficult with just five starters returning from a veteran-laden unit, with the first three games proving that growing pains are very real; thus far, Purdue has relinquished 30.3 points per game on 407.3 total yards, including 274.7 versus the pass on 7.3 yards per attempt, though there is evidence of his influence as his troops have logged more interceptions (4) than passing scores allowed (3). Offensively, Walters tabbed Graham Harrell to be his Offensive Coordinator, mirroring the hire of his opposite number tonight, as the Air Raid makes its way to West Lafayette. Another common thread is the acquisition of a Texan QB via the Transfer Portal, as former Longhorn, Hudson Card arrives to replace the venerable Aidan O’Connell, who over the previous two seasons had thrown for 7,202 yards and fifty touchdowns. Card made five career starts during his time in Austin, and through three outings has made a positive impact on the Boilermakers, completing 65.5% of his passes for 825 yards on 7.5 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns opposed to one interception, while rushing for another two scores and forty-one yards on twenty-six carries. When we last saw he and Purdue, they hosted Syracuse at Ross-Ade Stadium and failed to overcome a slow start despite finding their rhythm in the second half. The Orange raced out to a 21-0 lead prior to intermission, as the Boilermakers paid the price for their mistakes; Walters’ side committed FOUR turnovers on the night, including three lost fumbles. Granted, they didn’t meet much resistance moving the ball downfield (403 total yards), but they caught the ire of the officials on more than a few occasions, racking up a woeful 127 yards lost due to eleven penalties. Abandoning the run early, Card completed 32-of-46 passes for 323 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while rushing for another midway through the third period to cut the deficit to seven points. (Sophomore Receiver) Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen had himself quite a game with ten receptions for 114 yards, with (fellow Sophomore) Deion Burks responsible for that lone passing score to go along with fifty-one yards on four catches. Defensively, the hosts struggled immensely, shipping 455 total yards on twenty-eight first downs, including 271 versus the run and FIVE touchdowns as the ‘Cuse bagged a healthy 6.2 yards per carry. Needless to say, they’re going to have sure up that leaky run defense before this matchup with the run-loving Badgers…
From a betting perspective, Purdue has opened the Walters era with a 1-2 record both straight-up and against the spread, opening the campaign with a narrow 35-39 loss as a 4.5-point favorite at home to Fresno State, before bouncing back as 1.5-point underdog on the road at Virginia Tech where they won 24-17. Unfortunately, the Boilermakers couldn’t build much momentum in this regard upon returning home to face Syracuse, whom they fell to 20-35 as a 1-point underdog. Dating back to last season, this is a team that is a disappointing 3-7 against the spread over their last ten contests, while covering the line in just two of their past ten games at Ross-Ade Stadium, which includes a current seven-game losing streak. With that being said, Walters’ troops are an inspiring 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points, which is the case tonight. As we touched upon earlier, this series has been very one-sided of late; after going 7-5-1 against the Badgers from 1987 to 2003, PU hasn’t won a single game against them since, dropping sixteen consecutive encounters straight-up and have covered just two of the last ten meetings. In last year’s 24-35 defat in Madison, the eventual West Division Champions fell behind early, shipping TWENTY-ONE unanswered points in the first period before making the affair look more respectable later in the evening. The Boilermakers outgained the visitors (431-381), but were ultimately done in by three turnovers, all of which were interceptions of the aforementioned O’Connell. (Sophomore Tailback) Devin Mockobee was a bright spot for the home side, totaling 108 rushing yards and a touchdown on twenty-three carries, while (Junior Safety) Sanoussi Kane was a presence at the line of scrimmage with five tackles and a sack. On the injury front, Walters & Co are dealing with issues of their own, with (Sophomore Receiver) Jahmal Edrine out for the season with a torn ACL suffered prior to the opener, while (Junior Center) Gus Hartwig and (Sophomore Cornerback) Salim Turner-Muhammad are listed as day-to-day after missing the last two contests with undisclosed ailments. Looking ahead, tonight’s affair with Wisconsin marks the beginning of a much more difficult conference slate for Purdue, who will host Illinois next weekend before traveling to (No. 24) Iowa followed by an encounter with (No. 6) Ohio State in West Lafayette on October 14th.