7:30 PM EST, NBC – Line: Ohio State -3.5, Over/Under: 54.0
A Top-10 primetime clash highlights a weekend absolutely loaded with juicy matchups, though this one sits above them all as the (No. 6) Ohio State Buckeyes travel to South Bend to battle the (No. 9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a rematch of last fall’s season opener in Columbus. Now in his sixth season leading Ohio State (3-0, 1-0 in BIG 10), (Head Coach) Ryan Day finds himself at a bit of a crossroads. While that may sound like a harsh assessment of the 44-year-old, who during his tenure as the leading man in Columbus has steered the Buckeyes to a sterling 48-6 record (.889), including three BIG 10 titles and as many trips to the College Football Playoff, finishing as National Runners-up in 2020, a deeper dive will reveal some cracks in that Scarlet & Grey armor. Simply put, there are certain goals that need to be met when you hold this job, with winning the league serving as the minimum requirement. Unfortunately, Day (pictured below) has failed to even reach the conference championship game in each of the last two seasons in large part to getting manhandled by their eternal rival, Michigan, in each of their past two encounters. In 2021, a 27-42 drubbing at the Big House barred them from returning to the playoff altogether, while last fall’s 23-45 loss at the Horseshoe would’ve done the same had USC not lost to Utah in the Pac-12 title game. OSU backed into the playoff and outplayed (eventual National Champion) Georgia for the bulk of that semifinal, though came up just short due to a missed field goal in the waning moments. Now it is 2023, with Day having to reload on the offensive side of the football, with (two-time Heisman finalist) C.J. Stroud along with THREE starting Offensive Linemen plying their trade in the NFL, while a defense that hasn’t lived up to lofty standards over the past three seasons looks finally meet expectations. So, with three games in the books, what do we make of Ohio State, you ask? Well, they’ve beaten Indiana (23-3), Youngstown State (35-7), and most recently Western Kentucky (63-10), which is far from an arduous schedule, though they’ve nonetheless handled themselves as expected. The Buckeyes have averaged 40.3 points per game thus far (22nd in FBS) on 474.4 total yards (24th in FBS), including 318.0 via the pass on 10.4 yards per attempt and another 156.7 yards via the run on 5.2 yards per carry. (Junior Quarterback) Kyle McCord has the unenvious task of replacing Stroud, though has looked solid in the early goings, completing an efficient 69.7% of his passes for 815 yards on 10.7 yards per attempt with six touchdowns opposed to one interception, making good use of the considerable talent around him. (Tailbacks) TreyVeon Henderson and Myian Williams are about as good a tandem of rushers in the country, while the dynamic duo of (Receivers) Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka should be the next two Buckeyes pass-catchers to hear them names called early on Draft Day. Statistically speaking, Henderson has been the most productive out of the Backfield, rushing for 191 yards and four touchdowns on 6.4 yards per rush, while Harrison Jr. looks like damn stud in hauling in fourteen receptions for 304 yards and three scores on a healthy 21.7 yards per catch. In last weekend’s bludgeoning of the Hilltoppers, the home side ran off FORTY-NINE unanswered points to end the game, compiling 562 total yards with McCord totaling 318 yards and three touchdowns, while Henderson rushed thirteen times for eighty-eight yards and a pair of scores of his own. As for Harrison Jr., all he did was reel in five catches for 126 yards and a touchdown. Now, we’re going to see how potent this revamped attack really is against tougher competition, particularly McCord, who has yet to really be tested by a strong defense.
From a betting perspective, Ohio State is 29-24-1 against the spread under the leadership of Day, dating back to his promotion in 2018, including a 9-7-1 record in that regard as a favorite away from Columbus, while covering eight out of eighteen non-conference affairs. The Buckeyes have split their two encounters with non-conference opponents thus far in 2023, failing to cover a huge 44.5-point spread against Youngstown State two weeks ago before that aforementioned drubbing of Western Kentucky as a 29.5-point favorite. Dating back to last season, Day’s troops have covered the line in four of their last ten outings overall, while matching that record in both their last ten trips away from the Horseshoe and their past ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers. With that being said, there are a few trends working opposite of Brutus & Co this weekend, who have failed to cover the spread in five consecutive games following an affair in which they’ve scored at least forty points, while currently riding a four-game losing streak versus the spread as a road favorite, with both themes being relevant tonight. Speaking of this matchup, OSU is 3-2 straight-up and 2-1-2 against the spread all-time in regular season matchups with Notre Dame, while besting them in both regards in two Fiesta Bowl meetings. The last time that the Buckeyes stormed into South Bend was back in 1996, when they overcame a slow start to pummel the Irish in a 29-16 victory. Of course, these schools met as recently as last fall, with Day’s charges earning a 21-10 outcome in the season opener at Ohio Stadium, which coincidentally featured a pair of Top-10 teams; leading 10-7 at halftime, the hosts grinded out a hard-fought victory in which they outmatched the visitors in total yards (395-253), first downs (22-12), and rushing yards (172-76). The tandem of Henderson and Williams accounted for 175 rushing yards and a touchdown on twenty-nine carries, while Egbuka and Harrison Jr. combined for fourteen receptions, 146 yards, and another score. That affair also served as the coming-out party for (Junior Linebacker) Tommy Eichenberg, who logged nine tackles, three for loss, and a pair of sacks. On the injury front, OSU is largely healthy coming into this primetime battle, as (Junior Tight End) Joe Royer is listed as questionable after missing last weekend’s matchup with the Hilltoppers with an undisclosed injury. Looking ahead, the Buckeyes will enjoy a bye week following this contest ahead of winnable conference dates with Maryland and Purdue before hosting (No. 7) Penn State on October 21st.
Meanwhile, it is the second season for Notre Dame (4-0, Independent) under (Head Coach) Marcus Freeman, who is looking to build upon a solid if unspectacular debut in South Bend. After spending four years coordinating Cincinnati’s defense, the 37-year-old joined (former Head Coach) Brian Kelly’s staff in that same capacity in 2021, in which the Fighting Irish went on to finish 11-2, including a narrow 35-37 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl, which was notable for the fact that that postseason tilt served as Freeman’s (pictured below) first game as the team’s HC. Following the conclusion of the regular season, Kelly shocked the sporting world by bolting to LSU, leaving (Athletic Director) Jack Swarbrick scrambling to find a successor, eventually landing upon Freeman. Make no mistake, this a pressure-filled job for anyone, with the former Linebacker certainly feeling it in the early stages of his tenure leading the Golden Domers, who lost their first two games of the campaign, leaving them unranked for the first time in EIGHTY games. Sitting at a mediocre 3-3 following a 14-16 loss at home to Stanford, ND began turning things around with five consecutive victories before ultimately meeting defeat at Southern Cal (27-38), setting up a solid finish with a 45-38 triumph over South Carolina in the Gator Bowl. Entering his second year in charge, Freeman made some significant changes to the coaching staff and the roster, promoting (Tight Ends Coach) Gerard Parker to Offensive Coordinator to replace Tommy Rees, who took that same role at Alabama, while hitting the Transfer Portal hard, adding (Wake Forest transfer) Sam Hartman at Quarterback. Simply put, this was a huge get for the Irish, for Hartman started FORTY-FIVE games for the Demon Deacons, posting a stellar 27-18 record (.600) along the way, while logging 12,967 passing yards and 110 touchdowns, including the most 300-yard passing games in ACC history. After a very grounded approach to the attack in 2022, it is all about opening things up this fall, which is precisely what they have done thus far; Notre Dame has averaged a whopping 46.0 points per game (9th in FBS) on 508.8 total yards (16th in FBS), including 304.3 yards through the air (21st in FBS) on very healthy 11.3 yards per attempt (5th in FBS). For his part, Hartman has gotten off to a torrid start in completing an efficient 71.1% of his throws for 1,061 yards on 11.8 yards per attempt, with THIRTEEN touchdowns and zero interceptions, while rushing for another pair of scores to boot. The Senior has spread the wealth with five different targets totaling 100+ receiving yards, chef among them being (converted Tailback) Chris Tyree with 216 yards and two touchdowns on eight receptions, while (Freshman Wideout) Jaden Greathouse and (Sophomore Tight End) Holden Staes have combined for seven scores. As for (Junior Tailback) Audric Estime, all he has done is rush for 521 yards and five touchdowns on a whopping 8.3 yards per carry, including 176 yards in last weekend’s 41-17 victory over Central Michigan. It was fireworks early as the two teams combined for six touchdowns in the first thirty-five minutes of game time, though Freeman’s defense stiffened in the second half, outscoring the Chippewas 20-3 over the final two periods. Parker’s offense amassed 578 total yards on twenty-three first downs, rushing for 236 yards, while Hartman torched the visitors for 330 yards and four scores (one rushing), including pass-plays of seventy-five and seventy-six yards to paydirt. We’ll see how Freeman & Co stand up in their first true test of the season, as they welcome his alma mater for what should be an accurate indicator as to how much they’ve grown under his watch.
From a betting perspective, Notre Dame are 10-8 against the spread under the leadership of Freeman, dating back to his promotion at the conclusion of the 2021 campaign, covering the only instance in which they’ve been an underdog in South Bend, a 35-14 victory over (No. 5) Clemson last fall. Going back to last season, the Fighting Irish are 7-3 against the spread over their last ten games overall, though are a mediocre 4-6 in that regard in their past ten tilts contested at Notre Dame Stadium. Being an underdog has been good to them of late, with a 6-4 mark versus the spread in their last ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers, while putting together a solid 5-1-1 record in that regard in their last seven meetings with BIG 10 opponents. Looking at this particular matchup, it has been a different story altogether for the Golden Domers, who after winning their first two encounters straight-up (1935 and 1936), have dropped each of their last five affairs dating back to 1995, covering just one of them along the way. In that aforementioned season opener last fall, Freeman’s troops were 16-point underdogs at the Horseshoe and led the (No. 2) Buckeyes at halftime (10-7), though were ousted 0-14 post intermission as the offense struggled immensely along the way. The visitors logged just 253 total yards on twelve first downs, rushing for seventy-six yards despite attempting thirty carries. Estime was held to twenty-three yards on nine rushes, though did account for the team’s only touchdown of the night. On the injury front, ND could be without (Junior Linebacker) J.D. Bertrand for a second consecutive week due to a concussion suffered back in the victory at NC State, potentially robbing the defense of its leader. (Junior Tight End) Mitchell Evans finds himself in the same boat after concussion-like symptoms sidelined him for last weekend’s win over the Chippewas. This could be a particularly thin position as his backup, (Sophomore) Eli Raridon is expected to miss a fifth straight contest with an ailing knee, which only compounds the situation given the absence of another Tight End, Kevin Bauman, who will miss the entire campaign due to a ruptured ACL. Looking ahead, the schedule doesn’t let up for the Fighting Irish, who will hit the road for meetings with both (No. 18) Duke and Louisville before returning home for a huge showdown with bitter rivals, (No. 5) USC.