1:00 PM EST, FOX – Line: Vikings -1.5, Over/Under: 53.5
It isn’t often that we see must-win games as early as week three, but that is precisely the case this afternoon as the Minnesota Vikings play host to the Los Angeles Chargers in a battle of two playoff teams desperate to earn their first victory of the campaign. Man, oh man, have we seen this movie before, as the talented Chargers (0-2, T-Last in AFC West) somehow find themselves underachieving once again. You would think that we would get used to seeing a team that has lost more games decided by a single possession over the past five years than any in the league, but somehow it still manages to feel fresh. After missing the playoffs in his first year in charge thanks in large part to a series of gaffes on Special Teams and more than a few head scratching decisions on his own behalf, (Head Coach) Brandon Staley managed to largely avoid those same mistakes in leading Los Angeles to their first playoff berth in four years, though his troops were nonetheless victimized in a colossal 30-31 defeat at the Jaguars despite racing out to 27-0 lead. In all honesty, the 40-year-old was very fortunate to keep his job after that collapse, and in an attempt to assuage the damage, fired (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Lombardi and replaced him with (former Cowboys OC) Kellen Moore. As a result, the Bolts were a trendy dark horse pick to reach Super Bowl LVIII, though through two games it appears that they may still be shellshocked by that monumental meltdown in Jacksonville. Mental toughness is a term that gets thrown around a lot in sports, particularly when it comes to teams that struggle to close games, which brings us to this team that has lost their last three games by a combined SIX points. After some boneheaded penalties in the Secondary ensured they fell on the wrong side of a 34-36 shootout with the Dolphins, the Chargers hit the road to Nashville, where they ran out of gas in last weekend’s 24-27 overtime loss. With (versatile Tailback) Austin Ekeler sidelined with a sprained ankle, the bulk of the attack was on (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Justin Herbert’s shoulders; all but sixty-one od his team’s yards could be attributed to the talented 25-year-old, who completed 27-of-41 passes for 305 yards and a pair of touchdowns. However, Herbert (pictured below) found himself under duress throughout the affair, suffering three sacks, five hits, and as many pressures, with the offense as a whole struggling mightily on third down (2-of-14) despite converting each of their three attempts on fourth. (Veteran Receivers) Keenan Allen and Mike Williams feasted on Tennessee’s secondary, combining for sixteen receptions and 194 yards, with the former hauling in both touchdowns, though it was clear that Los Angeles missed the precious balance that Ekeler often brings to the attack. However, all of the talk after the game reverts back to mental toughness and blown leads, as Staley & Co led 11-0 early in the second quarter and 21-17 later in the fourth period, before needing a 33-yard field goal courtesy of (Kicker) Cameron Dicker to send the game to overtime. Despite winning the ensuing coin toss and electing to receive the football, the Bolts nevertheless went three-and-out to begin the extra period, with the home side all too eager to receive the punt, march thirty-eight yards downfield and nail the 41-yard field goal. Though the defense applied pressure to Ryan Tannehill throughout the contest (5 sacks), they couldn’t get off the field on third down (6-of-13) and shipped 141 rushing yards on thirty-four carries, yielding a pair of touchdowns. During a press conference following the game, Staley was visibly irritated at questions over his troops suffering any effects of a purported hangover from last January’s collapse in Northern Florida, stating that it was simply a narrative that was convenient for the media to run with. It sounds like someone feels their seat getting warm, folks…
From a betting perspective, the Chargers aren’t just winless straight-up, for they’ve also failed to cover either of their first two games of the campaign, in which they were coincidentally favored on both occasions. In their opener, Los Angeles was a 3-point favorite at home against high-powered Miami, though couldn’t keep up with Tua & Co, particularly in the second half of that aforementioned defeat. Last weekend’s loss at Tennessee also saw them laying points (-2.5), with the hosts taking them to task in that aforementioned overtime affair. Dating back to last season, Staley’s troops are just 4-5-1 against the spread over their last ten outings, including three consecutive losses in that regard as the skipper referenced the influence of that postseason meltdown in Jacksonville earlier in the week. Though they’ve been marginally better on the road, covering six of their last ten outings away from SoFi Stadium, the Bolts have really enjoyed life as an underdog, posting a 7-3 record versus the spread when receiving points from the oddsmakers, including four victories in their last five such contests. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams may not meet very often, but it has been a LONG time since LA has covered the line against them; the Chargers have lost three of the last four meetings straight-up and haven’t covered the spread against the Northmen since 2003! The past two encounters, a 10-39 drubbing in 2019 followed by a closer 20-27 tilt two years later, both ended in defeat at home, with the latter affair serving as the only time that Herbert has faced the Northmen. The Pro-Bowler was held in check as he completed 20-of-34 passes for just 195 yards with a touchdown and interception apiece, pressured throughout the evening by a visiting side that sacked him twice, hit him on six occasions, and racked up nine pressures. As for Ekeler, he turned in a modest performance himself, totaling fifty-nine yards from scrimmage and a receiving touchdown, while Allen accounted for the bulk of his QB’s passing yardage, hauling in eight receptions for ninety-eight yards. Staley’s woeful run defense played a heavy role as their teammates on the opposite side of the football were hardly on the field in this one, folks, possessing the football for a scant 23:50 of game time. On the injury front, the biggest absence is that of Ekeler, with Staley stating that there is no timetable for the prolific Tailback to return to action, meaning it could be days to weeks depending on how that sprained ankle heals. Simply put, this is a HUGE loss for the Chargers, as no player in the league has reached the end zone more often over the last two seasons (38 TD!). Looking ahead, Los Angeles will host the Raiders in a key early division matchup before enjoying an early bye week, which appears to be coming at the right time, for afterward they battle the Cowboys and (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Chiefs in succession.
Meanwhile, it is hard to say that we didn’t see this coming for the Vikings (0-2, T-Last in NFC North), who despite posting a 13-4 record en route to winning their first division title since 2017 in (Head Coach) Kevin O’Connell’s first season in charge, failed to inspire much confidence entering the 2023 campaign. After all, this was a woefully unbalanced team in 2022 that benefitted greatly from a division that was largely mediocre, while frequently finding themselves on the right side of a litany of shootouts. Eleven games were decided by a single possession, with Minnesota winning ALL of them, including eight in which they trailed in the fourth quarter. Indeed, there is no talk of lack of mental toughness for these Northmen, though there are other very clear issues that have and continue to plague them. First and foremost, the main reason that they found themselves in so many close games last fall was because their defense was ABYSMAL. Indeed, this a team that was actually outscored by their opponents over the totality of the season, folks, as O’Connell’s troops were blasted in their four defeats by a combined NINETY-THREE points (23.2 PPG). And it is with that said, that following their 24-31 loss at home to the Giants in the playoffs that O’Connell wasted no time in firing (Defensive Coordinator) Ed Donatell and replaced him with (former Dolphins HC) Brian Flores, with hopes of igniting a turnaround on that side of the football. Of course, Flores is a solid defensive mind, but through the first two games it is clear that he still has plenty of work to do in order to right this ship. In the Vikings’ 17-20 loss to the Buccaneers in the opener, his unit only relinquished 242 total yards to the visitors, though that figure is misleading as the hosts were forced to defend a short field on three occasions due to turnovers from the offense. This was particularly noticeable in the second half, where Minnesota was outgained 81-167 with Tampa running a whopping FORTY-ONE plays to their meager twenty-two. Simply put, they couldn’t get off the field. That theme would continue in last Thursday’s 28-34 defeat at Philadelphia, where they were outgained 346-430, shipping a ridiculous 259 rushing yards and three scores on forty-eight attempts, leading to a commanding 39:28 advantage in time of possession for the hosts. Of course, a total lack of balance has also played a hefty role in these events; the Northmen rank eighth in the NFL in total yards thus far (388.5) despite running the ball fewer than any team in the league through two weeks (26 total carries), leading to a scant 34.5 yards per game on the ground. Sure, when you have talents like (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Kirk Cousins and (All-Pro Receiver) Justin Jefferson (pictured together below), and you just made T.J. Hockenson the highest-paid Tight End in history, and you spent your first pick in last April’s NFL Draft on (decorated Wideout) Jordan Addison, you are basically advertising to the world that you are planning on throwing the ball A LOT. True to form, Cousins has thrown the ball more than just three other Quarterbacks thus far (88 attempts), ranking second overall with a whopping 354.0 yards per game. That begs the question, folks: is this approach actually sustainable? Better yet, can you really expect your defense to improve when they’re constantly under threat of going back on the field? Logic would dictate that the answer to both queries is no, though this particular matchup with the Chargers could pose an opportunity for O’Connell & Co to get right; on paper, Los Angeles has one of the better pass defenses in the NFL, with a talented Secondary bolstered by elite pass-rushers, though as we’ve seen over the last few years, they have struggled immensely in stopping the run, ranking thirtieth and twenty-eighth in that category under the aforementioned Staley. Could these Northmen successfully scout themselves and break their own tendencies by actually pounding the rock? We’ll be keeping an eye on that this afternoon…
From a betting perspective, the Vikings may also be winless straight-up, but they have fared a bit better from a spread POV, splitting their first two outings in that regard. After failing to cover the line as a 4-point home favorite opposite of Tampa Bay in the season opener, Minnesota traveled to Philadelphia on a short week and though it may have looked bleak for those who backed them, they managed to pull off a backdoor cover (+6) in the waning moments of the fourth quarter. Dating back to last season, O’Connell’s troops are just 3-6-1 versus the spread over their last ten games overall, while appearing in dreadful form at U.S. Bank Stadium, where they have failed to cover the line in four of their last five contests. The Northmen have matched that latter figure in their last five tilts as a favorite, and as we touched upon earlier, they’ve pretty much owned the Chargers over the last decade plus. Minny has covered the spread in five consecutive encounters, winning all but one of them straight-up along the way. In their most recent meeting, that 27-20 victory back in 2021, the Vikings employed a ground-heavy approach that saw them trample the Bolts’ porous run defense to the tune of 103 yards on thirty-three carries, affording the visitors a commanding advantage in time of possession (36:10). Granted, (former Tailback) Dalvin Cook, who accounted for all but nine of that yardage, is plying his trade in the Big Apple these days. As for Cousins, he clearly outdueled Herbert, completing 25-of-37 passes for 294 yards and a pair of touchdowns, though he did lose a fumble on a strip sack, while Jefferson hauled in nine receptions for 143 yards. In three career encounters, Cousins is 2-1 against today’s opponent, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average of 217.3 yards on 6.9 net yards per attempt with four touchdowns in comparison to a pair of interceptions. On the injury front, the Offensive Line continues to be an issue for Minnesota, with a pair of starters, Garrett Bradbury and Christian Darrisaw listed as questionable with respective back and ankle maladies. Neither participated in last Thursday’s affair with the Eagles and both are at risk against another defense not lacking in pass-rushing power. Looking ahead, O’Connell & Co will head to Carolina next weekend for a date with the winless Panthers, before welcoming in the Chiefs for a showdown in Minneapolis on October 8th.