8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Lions -1.5, Over/Under: 46.0
Week Four kicks off with a key early division clash between two teams that have positioned themselves to challenge for its crown, as the Detroit Lions look to once again leave Lambeau Field victorious, while the Green Bay Packers have other ideas under the bright lights of Thursday Night. Coming into this season, one of the trendy picks to make the leap to the playoffs was the Lions (2-1, T-1st in NFC North), who through three weeks haven’t shown us any reason to think otherwise. After all, (Head Coach) Dan Campbell’s troops showed a wealth of progress last year, improving by a whopping SIX games, which was the most of any team in the league. Indeed, Campbell and (General Manager) Brad Holmes have done a solid job of drafting and developing talent, with the fruits of their collective labor expected to pay off in a major way this fall. Simply put, the landscape in the NFC North is up for grabs, what with Aaron Rodgers’ trade to the Jets and the persistent struggles of the winless Vikings (who won this division last year at 13-4) and Bears, leaving this a veritable two-horse race for the crown. Needless to say, this would be quite the landmark for Detroit, who haven’t reigned over the North since 1993! So, why are so many pundits bullish on these felines, you ask? Well, Campbell managed to retain the services of the in-demand (Offensive Coordinator) Ben Johnson, who did a tremendous job in resurrecting the career of (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff and putting all of the disparate pieces together on an offensive unit and molding it into an explosive, yet balanced attack. They also bolstered this group with younger, more athletic weapons in last April’s NFL Draft, selecting (versatile Tailback) Jahmyr Gibbs twelfth overall before snatching (Iowa Tight End) Sam LaPorta in the second round to complement the addition of veteran free agents such as (former Bears Tailback) David Montgomery. Furthermore, the Lions addressed their need to fix a porous defense that shipped 25.1 points per game (28th Overall) a year ago, adding talent via trade and free agency in the form of (Eagles Safety) C.J. Gardner-Johnson and (Steelers Cornerback) Cameron Sutton, while dipping back into the draft with their wealth of picks, selecting (Iowa Linebacker) Jack Campbell and (Alabama Safety) Brian Branch in the first two rounds. These moves appeared to pay off a major way in the season opener, a surprising 21-20 victory over the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Chiefs at Arrowhead no less, in which the defense relegated Patrick Mahomes & Co to just 316 total yards of offense. Granted, they could have done better in the home opener against the seahawks a week later, as the defense capitulated one time too many in a 31-37 overtime affair, but those issues looked like they were solved in last weekend’s 20-6 drubbing of the previously unbeaten Falcons. With both teams slow to start, it would be Detroit who struck first; after an 11-play drive ended in a field goal, the hosts hit paydirt via a quick 5-play series culminating in a 45-yard bomb from Goff (pictured below) to LaPorta to take a 10-3 lead early in the second quarter. From there, the Lions continued to wrestle control of the contest away from the visitors, ending the afternoon with clear advantages in a slew of categories, including total yards (358-183), rushing yards (115-44), and time of possession (32:57). The defense was dominant in this one, folks, as (Defensive Coordinator) Aaron Glenn’s charges sacked Desmond Ridder SEVEN times, with (Sophomore Defensive End) Aidan Hutchenson accounting for two of those sacks, with a strip and recovery of the football to boot. Goff completed 22-of-33 passes for 243 yards with a touchdown and interception apiece, while Gibbs saw the bulk of the action in the Backfield with Montgomery out of action (more on that in a bit), compiling eighty rushing yards on seventeen carries. If not for a disappointing 119 in penalty yardage, this one could have looked a better than that final score would indicate, which is something that we’re expecting Campbell to have imparted upon his players during the short week of practice.
From a betting perspective, the Lions are both 2-1 straight-up and against the spread thus far in 2023, alternating wins and losses in that latter regard. After winning outright as a 4-point underdog in the opener at Kansas City, Campbell’s charges failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites versus Seattle. Last weekend, they got back on track in that aforementioned blowout of Atlanta, which as we covered earlier, could have been by an even wider margin had it not been for a wealth of penalties by the hosts. Dating back to last season, this team has been one of the best bets in the NFL, covering all but two of their last ten outings overall, including four of their last five contests. That same notion applies to these cats traveling away from Ford Field, posting a 4-1 mark in their last five road games against the spread, while riding a five-game streak of covers when favored by the oddsmakers. Speaking of streaks, there are a number of trends pointing in the direction of Detroit tonight; they have covered the line in six consecutive tilts after allowing fifteen or fewer points, while owning a six-game streak of covers following a game in which they amassed over 350 total yards. With that being said, they are currently a slim favorite on the road, which hasn’t been good to them at all, with just one cover in their last five such outings. Looking at this particular matchup, the Lions haven’t been favored against the Packers in nine meetings, with their last game as a favorite being a 31-23 victory back in 2018 at Ford Field. Detroit has covered three straight encounters, including last year’s trip to Lambeau that eliminated their rivals from postseason contention. With nothing to play for, Campbell’s side relished the role of spoiler, slowly gaining momentum as the contest progressed, taking the lead for good via a lengthy 13-play, 75-yard drive to paydirt that sapped over eight minutes of time off the clock. Goff was solid if unspectacular, completing 23-of-34 passes for 224 yards with no touchdowns but zero turnovers as well, as (young Safety) Kirby Joseph called game with an interception of Rodgers on the final drive of his last game ever as a Packer. Going back to Goff, the former number one overall pick is a career 4-4 on Thursday nights, completing 66.9% of his passes for an average of 261.0 yards on a healthy 8.18 net yards per attempt with a whopping fifteen touchdowns opposed to just two interceptions, while posting a commanding 4-1 mark versus Green Bay, with 228.0 yards per game, nine touchdowns, and two picks. On the injury front, Campbell has more than a few issues on his hands as the availability of a number of Lions is hanging in the balance. (Offensive Tackle) Taylor Decker, (Guard) Jonah Jackson, (Cornerback) Emmanuel Moseley, (Guard) Halapoulivaati Vaita, along with the aforementioned Joseph and Montgomery are all listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup with a variety of ailments, while the defense will be without (Edge-Rusher) James Houston, (Linebacker) Julian Okwara, and Gardner-Johnson for the foreseeable future as each defender has been placed on injured reserve. Looking ahead, Detroit will head back home to Motown where they’ll host the winless Panthers next week, before hitting the road once more for back-to-back away outings at the Buccaneers and Ravens.
Meanwhile, given all the hoopla surrounding the long-awaited departure of Aaron Rodgers, who would have envisioned that the Packers (2-1, T-1st in NFC North) would be sitting atop the division three weeks into the campaign? Sure, you can make up as many excuses as you want, for even if the early stages of their schedule have proven to be hardly arduous, the fact remains that this is a team that is grossly outperforming low expectations. Indeed, there were many out there (including yours truly) that felt that Rodgers’ exodus would spell doom for Green Bay, particularly given the perceived improvement of the rest of the division. While there is still plenty of football left to play this season, we’d be happy to admit that we were wrong on a number of fronts, as both the Vikings and Bears have been downright dreadful, creating an opening for (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur’s troops to insert themselves into the playoff picture. Of course, the biggest difference between this year’s Pack and their predecessors has been the transition at Quarterback, where Jordan Love is finally making an impression as the starter following three years serving as Rodgers’ backup. Simply put, the 24-year-old was a huge question mark for the Green & Gold; after drafting hm twenty-sixth overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, Love (pictured below) attempted just eighty-three passes over the span, tossing as many interceptions (3) as touchdowns along the way. However, the infrastructure around Rodgers remains largely unchanged for the Utah State product, which has allowed him to hit the ground running through these first three games. So, how has he performed thus far, you ask? Well, despite completing just 53.1% of his passes for an average of 218.3 yards per game, he has displayed stellar decision-making with SEVEN touchdowns opposed to ONE interception, which was a major concern coming out of college, while already proving cool, calm, and collective in the clutch, evidenced by last weekend’s 18-17 comeback to beat the Saints in the home opener, the fourteenth straight victory to open Lambeau Field. This one was ugly early, as the hosts had amassed just eighty-two yards on their first seven possessions of the afternoon. However, they managed to total eighty-two on their next drive alone, and though it ended in a turnover on downs (their second of the day), it was a sign of things to come, as the Packers would string together eighteen unanswered points, including a short run into the end zone, a successful two-point conversion, and an 8-yard strike to (Sophomore Receiver) Romeo Doubs to cap the rally, with Love having a hand in all three plays. With that being said, this one wasn’t over yet, as New Orleans would drive deep into Green Bay territory, setting up a potential game-winning field goal, but thankfully for the faithful at Lambeau, Blake Grupe’s kick sailed wide of the mark. LaFleur’s charges totaled 340 total yards of offense on twenty-one first downs, rushing for ninety-five yards on twenty-six carries, while Love completed 22-of-44 passes for 259 yards with a touchdown and interception apiece, rushing for another thirty-nine yards and a score to boot. The defense played a prominent role in the victory, relegating the visitors to just 252 total yards on fifteen first downs, including seventy-seven rushing yards on twenty-two attempts, and knocking Derek Carr out of the affair altogether due to a shoulder injury. (Defensive Linemen) Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark were the protagonists of this effort, combining for FOUR sacks and FIVE hits of the Saints Quarterbacks. The fact that Love looks as comfortable as he does within LaFleur’s offense bodes well for the Packers moving forward, as it appears that the proverbial learning curve was overexaggerated. Through three games, Green Bay has played balanced, mistake-free football, while moving the chains at an efficient rate of 46.5% (5th Overall) and making their chances count in the red zone where they’ve punched it in for six points on a stellar 77.8% of their attempts, which is the second-highest figure in the NFL. In fact, this efficiency stands as a marked improvement over their performance last year with Rodgers, and should only improve as they receive healthy reinforcements in the coming weeks (more on that in a bit).
From a betting perspective, the Packers may be 2-1, but they are a perfect 3-0 against the spread thus far, covering each of their first three outings as an underdog. First, they were getting one point in their opener at the Bears, whom they bullied in a 38-20 victory, before covering a 3-point dog in the following weekend’s narrow 24-25 defeat at Atlanta. Then, they found themselves receiving points again, this time in that aforementioned home opener against the Saints, where they were getting 1.5 points from the oddsmakers. Dating back to last season, Green Bay has covered seven of their last ten games overall, including four of their past five outings. Once again, they are receiving points at home, which is something that rarely happened during the Rodgers era, though they have nonetheless enjoyed it; LaFleur’s side has posted an 8-2 record against the spread in their last ten games as an underdog. However, as we covered earlier, they have been pretty lousy when it comes to covering against the Lions, riding a five-game losing streak in that regard, though most of that has had to do with being routinely favored by a sizeable margin. With that being said, you would have to dig a bit deeper, but you would find that they’ve struggled all the same when it comes to being an underdog against Detroit, covering just three of their past ten such affairs. The Packers lost on both fronts to the Lions in their two meetings a year ago, despite being favored by at least four points in each game. The latter of the two, a 16-20 defeat in the season finale at Lambeau was particularly damaging, as Rodgers & Co simply couldn’t get the job done in a win-and-you’re-in scenario against a team that had previously been eliminated from postseason competition early in the day. On the injury front, after a number of prominent players were hindered or sidelined altogether in last weekend’s battle with New Orleans, Green Bay could see another of them return, though that is still very much an open question given that tonight’s affair comes on a short week. (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Jaire Alexander, (veteran Tackle) David Bakhtiari, (young Linebacker) De’Vondre Campbell, (Guard) Elgton Jenkins, (veteran Tailback) Aaron Jones, and (Sophomore Receiver) Christian Watson all missed the previous contest with various ailments, with Watson having yet to appear this season thanks to a lingering hamstring strain. Given the timing of this game and the unexpected success thus far, don’t be surprised if LaFleur opts to shelve many of these players in an effort to take advantage of the mini-bye week and make sure they’re healthy next weekend. Speaking of the schedule, the Love & Co will hit Las Vegas for a primetime affair with the struggling Raiders on Monday Night Football, before enjoying their actual bye week, which would appear to be much appreciated by the roster.