8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Seahawks -1.5, Over/Under: 47.5
Week Four comes to its conclusion tonight in the Meadowlands, where the struggling New York Giants hope to get back on track as they host the Seattle Seahawks at MetLife Stadium under the bright lights of Monday Night Football. Coming into this season, there appeared to be a very distinct hierarchy within the NFC, with three teams figuring to be legitimate contenders with everyone else fighting for scraps. One of the teams looking to break through into that upper echelon is the Seahawks (2-1, 2nd in NFC West), who after getting off to a slow start in their season opener have responded in kind with back-to-back victories. Indeed, Seattle has been gifted with a soft opening half of their schedule, affording (Head Coach) Pete Carroll the luxury of not only building some momentum as they reach October, but also surviving despite a rash of early injuries. Including tonight’s opponent, these birds have been tested against an opposing win percentage of just .400 and will have faced a grand total of THREE playoff teams from last season before they meet division rival San Francisco later next month on Thanksgiving Night. Needless to say, the table has been set for Carroll & Co to build a comfortable cushion for themselves. So, what do we make of the Seahawks, you ask? Well, with three weeks in the books, they have been a bit of a mixed bag on both sides of the football but given their injury woes there remains a sense of optimism in the Northwest. Seattle hasn’t been prolific offensively despite averaging a very healthy 29.0 points per game (4th Overall), but that is largely due to having to adapt to playing without BOTH of their starting Offensive Tackles. Simply put, (Sophomore Linemen) Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas performed well beyond their years as bookend Rookie Tackles last season, though both were lost to injury in the opener against the Rams. As a result, the offense as a whole has struggled to keep the chains moving with consistency, converting a lowly 30.3% of their third downs (28th Overall), which has forced a potentially explosive passing attack to settle for more field goals than they would prefer. With that being said, (veteran Quarterback) Geno Smith has picked up where he left off from last year, in which he took home Comeback Player of the Year honors. Smith (pictured below) has completed an efficient 68.9% of his throws for an average of 245.3 yards on 6.34 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns opposed to just one interception, which is coincidentally the only turnover that the team has committed thus far, the fewest in the NFL. The other part of the equation has been a defense that once again appears to be finding its footing through the early stages of the campaign. We’ve seen this before from the ‘Hawks, who have developed a penchant for growing into a solid defense as the schedule progresses. Through the first three outings, (Defensive Coordinator) Clint Hurt’s unit ranks twenty-ninth overall in both points allowed (29.3) and total defense (407.3), including next-to-last in passing yards allowed (328.0) and third down rate (57.4%), along with dead-last in the league in the red zone (100.0%). Again, that hasn’t come against particularly stiff competition, which is a clear sign that there is plenty of work to be done. Granted, there have been A LOT of injuries on this side of the football (which we’ll get into shortly), which has been evident in permitting three consecutive games of 300+ passing yards to the opposition. When we last saw them, the Seahawks needed a 25-point second half to pull away from a Panthers side that was starting a Backup Quarterback in last weekend’s 37-27 affair from Lumen Field. The two teams combined for SEVEN field goals through the first thirty-five minutes of action, before Smith & Co got hot down the stretch, amassing 425 total yards, including a season-high 146 rushing yards, ninety-seven of which coming courtesy of (Sophomore Tailback) Kenneth Walker III. The Michigan State product also racked up fifty-nine yards on three receptions with two total scores, while (Pro-Bowl Receiver) D.K. Metcalf hauled in six receptions on eight targets for 112 yards. Smith completed 23-of-36 passes for 296 yards with a touchdown and interception apiece, spreading the ball to nine different targets. Defensively, Hurt’s troops relinquished 378 total yards, with all but forty-four of that total coming via the pass, as they found themselves frequently paying for bringing pressure; the hosts blitzed Andy Dalton TWENTY-SIX times on the afternoon, though managed to pressure him on just ten occasions, resulting in three sacks. Carolina converted 10-of-19 third downs, which is another sign that this defense has struggled to get off the field. Perhaps facing a shorthanded offense that is minus many key pieces will prove to be the remedy to what ails them? We’ll have to wait and see, folks.
From a betting perspective, the Seahawks have covered each of their last two games after falling short in their opener against the Rams. 4.5 points has been the common number thus far, as Seattle was a 4.5-point favorite in that defeat to Los Angeles before covering as 4.5-point underdogs at Detroit a week later. In that aforementioned victory over the Panthers last weekend, Carroll’s troops easily covered as favorites of that same value. Dating back to last season, this team has covered just three of their last ten outings overall, and have been particularly worrisome away from home, posting a 1-4 mark against the spread in their last five road contests. Ditto when they have been favored of late, covering the line just once in five such tries. With that being said, the ‘Hawks have been a good bet when facing the Giants, whom they have both won and covered four of their last five meetings against. They have mirrored that record in both regards in their last five trips to MetLife Stadium as well. Furthermore, these birds have gotten off to quick starts before flying south for the winter, riding an 8-1 record versus the spread in the month of October. Diving deeper into this particular matchup, these teams met last season in the Pacific Northwest, an encounter that ended in a convincing 27-13 victory for the Seahawks. All squared at 13-13 early in the fourth quarter, the hosts put their foot on the gas and scored the final fourteen points of the afternoon. Seattle only held the football for 26:26 of game time, though benefitted from a pair of turnovers as Smith carried the attack against his former employers, completing 23-of-34 passes for 212 yards and a pair of touchdowns, with Metcalf and (fellow Receiver) Lockett hauling in one score apiece. Of course, Smith spent one season with Big Blue, appearing in two games and starting only one of them back in 2017 when he was very much a journeyman. On the injury front, Carroll has a fairly lengthy list of players whose availability hangs in the balance for tonight’s tilt in the Meadowlands, including (Safeties) Jamal Adams (quadriceps), Julian Love (hamstring), and Quandre Diggs (hamstring), (Center) Evan Brown (quadriceps), (Tight Ends) Will Dissly (shoulder) and Noah Fant (knee), (Defensive Ends) Dre’Mont Jones (hip) and Jarran Reed (quadriceps), (Edge-Rusher) Uchenna Nwosu (Achilles), (Cornerback) Tariq Woolen (chest), and also Metcalf (ribs) all listed as questionable with a variety of ailments. As for those bookend Tackles that we referenced earlier, Cross and Lucas are both expected to be sidelined for at least one more weekend, with the former listed as doubtful due to a sprained toe, while the latter has been placed on injured reserve with an ailing knee. Looking ahead, given all those bumps and bruises, the bye week can’t come fast enough for this team, who will hit the road in two weeks for a trip to Cincinnati before returning home for a division date with Arizona.
Meanwhile, through these three weeks, the Giants (1-2, Last in NFC East) have been the opposite of their opponent tonight in all the worst ways. Like Seattle, this team was a very pleasant surprise in overachieving last season, reaching the playoffs as a Wild Card participant and as such, were expected to make another leap this fall, particularly after management made some investments to bolster the passing game. Unfortunately, New York has suffered a wealth of injuries too, leaving that attack without some very big pieces. However, that is where the similarities stop, folks, for whereas the Seahawks have managed to stay afloat in the face of the dreaded injury bug thanks to a soft schedule, these G-Men have been handcuffed by their own absences in tackling a treacherously difficult slate of opponents. So, what has gone wrong for (Head Coach) Brian Daboll & Co, you ask? Well, this may take a minute… We’ll start with the injuries, which are prominent; (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Saquon Barkley and (Left Tackle) Andrew Thomas are arguably the two most important pieces of the offense, and neither has been available for the last five quarters of football. This has led to a unit that has been rather hard to watch thus far, averaging a meager 14.3 points per game (31st Overall) on just 277.3 total yards (28th Overall), with a Minus-5 turnover differential playing a sizable role in the matter. Needless to say, this is NOT what the franchise envisioned when they opened up the checkbook and made both (young Quarterback) Daniel Jones and Thomas foundational pieces of the team, while engaging in months of negotiating with Barkley before ultimately retaining his services on a one-year deal. Jones, who progressed so much last season under Daboll’s watch, has been the victim of regression this fall; the 26-year-old has completed 64.9% of his passes for just 187.3 yards per game on a career-low 4.50 net yards per attempt, with more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (2), and has already suffered a dozen sacks. However, what made the Giants’ investment in Jones (pictured below) so polarizing was how much he was dependent on the supporting cast, which while true for all Quarterbacks, has been particularly evident with their newly minted $160 million man. With Thomas protecting his blindside, he was sacked on 8.5% of his drop-backs, with that number increasing to 11.0% this season. As for the versatile Barkley, he accounted for a whopping 29.0% of New York’s total offense, including fifty-seven receptions on seventy-six targets, both of which rank first on the team. Taking the 26-year-old out of the lineup has left this unit short on options, with Jones unable to really make the most of his mobility, which is such valuable complement to Barkley. With that being said, their offensive struggles have had an adverse effect on the defense, which is dealing with its own issues. (Defensive Coordinator) Wink Martindale would prefer to blitz as he did last season in which he brought pressure on 39.7% of their defensive snaps, which was by far and away the most in the league. However, you can’t really do that without putting yourself at serious risk without reliable cover Cornerbacks, which simply isn’t something that they have at their disposal. Through three games, the G-Men have blitzed on over HALF of their snaps (53.1%) leading to a meager pressure percentage of 16.7% (28th Overall) and just TWO sacks, the second fewest in the NFL thus far. It has been a baptism of fire for (Cornerbacks) Deonte Banks and Adoree’ Jackson, with the former being repeatedly taken to task in his rookie campaign, while a Defensive Line consisting of THREE first-round picks hasn’t made the difference in the trenches. When we last saw the Giants, this trend continued in their midweek trip to San Francisco resulting in a lopsided 12-30 defeat. In this case, the numbers tell the story folks; Big Blue was outclassed in a slew of categories including total yards (150-441), first downs (10-26), rushing yards (29-141), passing yards (137-310), third down (3-of-12) and time of possession (20:50). Jones could muster 22-of-32 passes for 137 yards and an interception, suffering a pair of sacks, with six QB hits and pressures apiece. If you take away the thirty-one points that they scored in the second half of a furious rally to beat the lowly Cardinals in Week Two, then the Giants have been outscored 12-90 this season! With both Barkley and Thomas likely a week away from returning to the gridiron, perhaps they can manufacture some plays against a Seahawks defense that has been very generous to their opponents thus far…
From a betting perspective, the Giants may be 1-2 straight-up this season, but they have yet to cover the spread in any of their three games. After getting hammered in their opener against Dallas (0-40), New York rallied to earn a wild comeback win at Arizona (31-28), before being completely outclassed in that aforementioned drubbing at San Francisco, in which they were receiving 10.5 points by the oddsmakers. Dating back to last season, Daboll’s troops are a middling 5-5 against the spread, though have covered just one of their last five outings, though have been a bit better at home, where they’ve posted a 2-3 mark against the spread within that same range. We referenced Seattle’s success in this regard during the month of October, and these G-Men have borrowed a page from their opponent, riding a 5-1 record versus the spread in their last six such outings. With that being said, there are a number of trends working against Big Blue tonight. First, they have failed to cover four consecutive games after a straight-up loss by fourteen or more points. Second, they are in the midst of a four-game losing streak against the spread overall. Third, they’ve really had a hard time dealing with the Seahawks, particularly at MetLife Stadium, where they’ve lost three consecutive meetings both straight-up and against the spread. When they met at Lumen Field in last year’s encounter, neither team enjoyed much success moving the football as both sides were relegated below 300 yards of total offense. The visitors could muster just 225 yards on fourteen first downs despite possessing the rock for 33:34 of game time, going into halftime with just THIRTY-SIX total yards. After intermission, they managed to put together back-to-back drives of 12+ plays, only to settle for a pair of field goals, which proved to be their Achilles heel. Jones had a hard day at the office, folks, completing 17-of-31 passes for 176 yards with FIVE sacks and a fumble, while Barkley rushed for fifty-three yards and their only touchdown. Speaking of Jones, that may have been his only meeting with the ‘Hawks, but we’ve seen plenty of him on Monday Night Football to know of his struggles on this particular day of the week; he is winless in six tries, completing 61.7% of his throws for an average of 221.7 yards on just 5.20 net yards per attempt, with more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (8), along with three fumbles (two lost). On the injury front, neither Barkley (ankle) or Thomas (hamstring) is expected to return to the gridiron tonight, though (Linebacker) Azeez Ojulari (hamstring), (Guard) Ben Brederson (concussion) and (Tight End) Daniel Bellinger (neck) is all probable to participate in tonight’s showdown in the Meadowlands. Looking ahead, the road remains unforgiving for the Giants, who will travel to South Beach to face the high-powered Dolphins before returning to New York for a battle with the Bills, which could potentially see them sitting at a disappointing 1-5 with roughly a third of the schedule in the books.