7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Kansas State -11.0, Over/Under: 55.0
Week Six kicks off with a BIG XII showdown in Stillwater, where the (reigning conference champion) Kansas State Wildcats look to earn their fourth victory of the campaign against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who are in turn reeling after suffering back-to-back losses, in this Friday Night affair from Boone Pickens Stadium. In the final season of the BIG XII as we’ve come to know it, Kansas State (3-1, 1-0 in BIG XII) are looking to successfully defend their league title for the first time in school history. Indeed, (Head Coach) Chris Klieman has done a tremendous job since his arrival from North Dakota State, where he led the Bison to FOUR FCS National Championships in 2014 to 2018. In his four seasons in Manhattan, the 56-year-old has won eight or more games three times, including last year’s 10-3 finish that resulted in the Wildcats’ first BIG XII Title since 2003. Arguably the biggest difference for KSU came on the offensive side of the football, where Klieman employed a new no-huddle approach that allowed his troops to run of an average of 17.7 more plays per game than in the previous season, resulting in the most explosive attack of his tenure (32.3 points on 419 total yards). However, the concern coming into this fall was replacing a number of star players, including Deuce Vaughn, Malik Knowles, Kade Warner, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and Julian Brents, all who are now plying their respective trades on Sundays. With that being said, (Offensive Coordinator) Collin Klein has overseen a unit that may be even better than its predecessor; with eight returning starters, KSU has averaged 39.5 points (14th in FBS) on 482.3 total yards, including a whopping 283.8 through the air and another 198.5 on the ground, equating to a very healthy 6.5 yards per play thus far. After burning his redshirt last season in place of an injured Adrian Martinez, (Junior Quarterback) Will Howard has performed well, completing 65.5% of his passes for 1,072 yards on 7.7 yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to four interceptions, while also factoring into the run game with 123 yards and another five scores on twenty-eight carries, and even hauled in a touchdown reception to boot. Sure, you would like the number of interceptions to be lower than that, as he has tossed one in every game, but Howard (pictured below) has nonetheless shown firm command of the Wildcats’ system, operating behind one of the most experienced Offensive Lines in the country and distributing to a solid supporting cast at the skill positions. Replacing the likes of Vaughn, Knowles, and Warner may have been a difficult task for Klieman & Co, but to their credit they have aced that test; (Sophomore Tailback) D.J. Giddens has proven to be a versatile threat with 530 yards and four touchdowns on seventy-eight touches, while (Senior Receiver) Phillip Brooks has reeled in twenty-four passes for 226 yards and a pair of scores. And then there is (Junior Tight End) Ben Sinnott, who is one of the best at his position in the FBS, totaling sixteen catches for 247 yards and two touchdowns of his own. Offense aside, the real concern in the Litle Apple is a defense returning just five starters from last year, including a Secondary that is very light on starting experience. After allowing a combined thirteen points to the likes of Southeast Missouri State and Troy, Kansas State has shipped thirty or more in each of their last two outings, including 356 passing yards and two touchdowns in a loss at (No. 21) Missouri, before getting torched for 264 yards and three scores in their 44-31 victory over Central Florida. Indeed, it was the kind of track meet that one would expect from the BIG XII, as the Wildcats welcomed their new conference neighbors to Manhattan; there were ten touchdowns, five lead changes, and 943 total yards between them, as Klieman’s troops put their foot on the gas after falling behind 21-24 early in the third period, running off TWENTY-ONE unanswered points before the visitors could add a consolation score. While the home side churned out all that yardage on an industrial thirty-two first downs, their opponent thrived on big plays, with their 407 total yards spread out over nineteen first downs, including touchdown passes for twenty-seven, sixty-nine, and forty-six yards, as that young Secondary was put through their paces. Though Howard was sloppy throwing the ball, completing 27-of-42 passes for 255 yards and an interception, the ground game was dominant in this one, folks, as the ‘Cats trampled the Knights for 281 rushing yards and SIX touchdowns on forty carries. Giddens erupted for a career-high 207 yards and four scores on thirty attempts, while Howard got into the act with sixty-four yards and a pair of touchdowns as well. (Defensive Coordinator) Joe Klanderman’s defense did make their share of splash plays, totaling eight tackles for loss and four sacks, while forcing and recovering a fumble, with (Sophomore Cornerback) Jacob Parrish, one of those aforementioned green DBs, getting the first interception of his career.
From a betting perspective, Kansas State are both 3-1 straight-up and against the spread this season, covering each of their first two outings in comfortable fashion before suffering their lone defeat of the campaign thus far, a 27-30 affair at Missouri in which they were 3.5-point favorites. Prior to last weekend’s bye, their victory over the Golden Knights saw the Wildcats once again get back into the good graces of bettors, covering that 6.5-point spread with relative ease. Since Klieman arrived in 2019, the Wildcats are a stellar 35-19 (.641) against the spread overall, including 4-2 (.666) as a road favorite and a 25-13 (.657) record in that regard against their fellow BIG XII brethren. KSU is 7-3 versus the spread in both their last ten games overall and in their last ten trips away from Manhattan dating back to last season, while covering all but two of their last ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. With that being said, this team hasn’t fared well under the Friday Night lights, failing to cover each of their last six such contests. As for this particular matchup with Oklahoma State, KSU is just 1-6 in their last seven ventures to Stillwater straight-up but are 5-2 against the spread there since 2007. The last time that they traveled to Boone Pickens Stadium, Kansas State led 10-7 after a 99-yard kickoff return to the house only to be overrun the rest of the way, shipping THIRTY-ONE unanswered points en route to suffering a 20-31 loss to a team that finished that season ranked seventh in the AP. However, it was a VERY different story in last year’s encounter, as Klieman’s troops rolled the Pokes in a 48-0 shutout in the Little Apple. Simply put, the hosts outclassed the Cowboys in every way, owning significant advantages in a slew of categories, including total yards (495-217), first downs (21-14), rushing yards (199-54), passing yards (296-163), and turnovers (+3). The aforementioned Howard enjoyed arguably the finest performance of his collegiate career, completing 21-of-37 passes for 296 yards and FOUR touchdowns, though it should be stated that the bulk of his supporting cast, including the likes of Vaughn, Knowles, and Warner, who together accounted for 386 total yards and FIVE touchdowns, have moved on to greener pastures. On the injury front, the Wildcats will be without one of the few notable stars from last year’s BIG XII Championship side, (Junior Linebacker) Daniel Green, who is out for the rest of the campaign after undergoing surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle, while (Junior Tailback) Treshaun Ward is listed as questionable after missing the victory over Central Florida two weeks ago with an undisclosed ailment. The Florida State transfer has played a role in both the run game and passing game, rushing for 160 yards and a touchdown on 4.4 yards per attempt, while hauling in seven passes for seventy-two yards and another score out of the Backfield. Looking ahead, KSU should take advantage of this relatively soft stretch of their schedule as they face the likes of Texas Tech, TCU, and Houston before a trip to Austin to face (No. 3) Texas on November 4th in their final showdown with the Longhorns as members of the BIG XII, which is likely to go a long way towards deciding its champion.
Meanwhile, any hopes of getting off to a third consecutive hot start has been tempered for Oklahoma State (2-2, 0-1 in BIG XII), who after winning their first two games of the campaign have since dropped back-to-back losses to less-than-stellar competition. Last season, the Cowboys were riding high off their stellar 12-2 finish in 2021, getting off to a 5-0 start before injuries and a serious drain of talent and experience saw them lose all but two of their final seven games, culminating in a 17-24 defeat to Wisconsin in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl to finish 7-6. Coming into this fall, change continued to be the key word in Stillwater, as (longtime Head Coach) Mike Gundy not only had to replace eight starters, including his top Quarterback, Running Back, and five of his top-six Receivers, but also his Defensive Coordinator, hiring Bryan Nardo from (Division III) Gannon University, marking his third different DC in as many seasons. However, from what we have seen thus far, the defense hasn’t been the issue at OSU; the Pokes have allowed a respectable 23.8 points per game (57th in FBS) on 371.3 total yards, including 233.8 versus the pass and another 137.5 against the run. The problem has been the offense, which is ironic given that Gundy (pictured below) typically fields a potent attack. During his nineteen years leading his alma mater, the 56-year-old has rarely put out an offense that has been so dysfunctional, as his troops have produced just 22.0 points per game (103rd in FBS) on 343.5 total yards, including 221.8 through the air and another 121.8 on the ground. Again, it is awfully ironic that a former QB is presiding over such a passing game that has seen a rotation of signal-callers attempt to make an impression. (Texas Tech transfer) Alan Bowman came on strong late in the Spring to win the starting job and has been the closest thing that Oklahoma State has had to a clear starter even if the numbers have proven uninspiring; the Junior has completed just 53.0% of his passes for 513 yards on a mere 5.1 yards per attempt with more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2). Gundy’s son, Gunnar, and Garret Rangel both saw their share of time last season and to their credit have exhibited a better handle on the offense than Bowman, though have yet to vault pass him on the depth chart. Either way, much more was expected out of a unit that features an experienced Offensive Line, a highly recruited Tailback in the form of (Sophomore) Ollie Gordon, and a Senior playmaker at Receiver such as Brennan Pressley. Of course, Receiver play is linked to that of the Quarterback, and it has been disappointing to see Pressley, who hauled in sixty-seven receptions for 813 yards and a pair of touchdowns last season post a meager ninety-eight yards on just 6.5 yards per catch through four games. The !@#$ hit the fan in a miserable 7-33 defeat to Southern Alabama that drew a wave of boos from the faithful at Boone Pickens, as the hosts found themselves trailing 0-23 at halftime. Gundy’s outfit could muster a dismal 208 total yards on fourteen first downs, with all three of those aforementioned Quarterbacks combining to complete 16-of-35 passes for 114 yards and an interception. Needless to say, that was NOT the warmup that he had in mind before his team kicked off BIG XII play in Ames, where they ran out of gas in a 27-34 loss at Iowa State. Whatever Gundy had preached throughout the week of practice clearly resonated in what was an improved offensive performance for the Cowboys, who posted 409 total yards, including 131 of the rushing variety on twenty-four carries, while the QB room, this time manned solely by Bowman, completed 23-of-48 passes for 278 yards with three total touchdowns, highlighted by a 60-yard bomb to (Sophomore Tailback) Jaden Nixon. However, the former Red Raider also tossed a pair of costly interceptions, while the defense yielded 422 total yards, including 348 and three touchdowns through the air. That loss was their eighth in their last twelve games since that torrid 5-0 start to begin the previous campaign, though there were some encouraging signs to be found. Sure, Bowman made his mistakes, but he managed to settle into a promising rhythm after rotating with Gundy and Rangel throughout the first three games, while Gordon also got into the act, racking up 121 rushing yards on just eighteen carries. Could a week off prove to be the opportunity needed for these Pokes to get their act together? We’ll have to wait and see…
From a betting perspective, Oklahoma State may be 2-2 straight-up but they have only covered the spread in one of their games thus far in 2023, with that being a 27-15 victory at Arizona State in which they were favored by 2.5 points. Since then, they lost outright as a 7-point favorite to Southern Alabama and failed to cover as 3.5-point road dogs in that loss at Iowa State. Under Gundy’s leadership, the Cowboys have posted a 122-88-7 (.562) record against the spread over the course of nineteen seasons, including a 10-11-2 (.434) mark as a home underdog, which is the case tonight. The Pokes have covered just two of their last ten games overall dating back to last season, including four straight defeats against the spread in Stillwater. They’ve also been a bad bet as an underdog of late, riding a 1-4 run against the spread when receiving points from the oddsmakers. OSU is 9-5 straight-up in their last fourteen meetings with KSU, though are only 4-10 against the spread during that period. As we covered earlier, this team was ranked ninth in the AP in their fateful trip to Manhattan and were absolutely HOUSED in a 0-48 shutout that further hastened their descent down and out of the rankings over the second half of the season. Gundy’s offense could muster just 217 total yards, including a paltry fifty-four yards on thirty carries, while the passing game could offer just 163 yards and a pair of interceptions on 15-of-33 completions. (Former Quarterback) Spencer Sanders, who has since transferred to Ole Miss, went 13-for-26 for 147 yards and an interception, while Gundy spelled him late for just sixteen yards and a pick of his own on 2-of-7 passing. On the injury front, Oklahoma State is remarkably healthy despite their current run of poor form, which provides some optimism that a turnaround could be in the cards. Looking ahead, Gundy & Co will remain in Stillwater next week for a showdown with a Kansas side that just got blown out by (No. 3) Texas, before traveling to Morgantown for a date with West Virginia and a return to Boone Pickens for homecoming against (BIG XII newcomer) Cincinnati. It should be stated that the rest of the schedule is far from arduous for these Cowboys, who are fortunate to miss affairs with the Longhorns, Baylor, or TCU, so participating in a bowl for an EIGHTEENTH consecutive season should still be a reasonable goal despite there still being plenty of work to be done.