7:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Georgia -15.0, Over/Under: 48.0
It’s an all-SEC East affair tonight in Athens, as the top-ranked (two-time reigning National Champion) Georgia Bulldogs play host to the upset-minded (No. 20) Kentucky Wildcats, who have played the champs tough in each of the past two seasons. After posting their second 10-win campaign in four years, Kentucky (5-0, 2-0 in SEC) was a bit of a disappointment last year, finishing 7-6 and out of the AP altogether after getting off to a promising 4-0 start. (Head Coach) Mark Stoops’ charges struggled in SEC play (3-5), even though many were high on them given the return of stars (Quarterback) Will Levis and (Tailback) Chris Rodriguez. However, the Wildcats ultimately proved unable to compensate for the loss of so many experienced performers, as Stoops & Co bid farewell to three starters along the Offensive Line, their top-two leading Receivers and their Tight End, while (Offensive Coordinator) Liam Coen returned to the NFL to coordinate the Rams’ attack. Coming into this fall, these bluegrass cats lost both Levis and Rodriguez to the NFL but are nonetheless better positioned for it as they are armed with fifteen returning starters, including TEN on an offense that also welcomes back Coen, to the delight of many in Lexington. Of course, Stoops did his share of outsourcing too, tapping into the Transfer Portal to obtain the services of (Senior Quarterback) Devin Leary, who in four seasons at North Carolina State went 17-12 as the starter, completing 60.2% of his passes for 6,807 yards on 7.2 yards per attempt, with sixty-two touchdowns opposed to sixteen interceptions. So far, he has proven to be a good fit within Coen’s pro-style scheme, connecting on 57.7% of his throws for an average of 225.8 yards per game on 8.0 yards per pass, with twice as many scores (10) as picks (5). As a whole, the offense has been the most prolific in Stoops’ tenure, racking up 37.0 points per contest (21st in FBS) on 396.2 total yards, logging a healthy 7.2 yards per play along the way. When we last saw them, Kentucky earned their biggest win of the season thus far, thumping Florida in a 33-14 affair from Kroger Field last weekend. This one was never in doubt, folks, as the hosts ran off TWENTY-THREE unanswered points to begin the afternoon, which was a blow that the rowdy reptiles could not come back from. In the end, UK amassed 398 total yards on twenty-two first downs, including a season-high 329 rushing yards on thirty-six carries, which equates to a staggering 9.1 yards per rush! After touching up his former school, Vanderbilt, for seventy-eight yards and a pair of touchdowns, (Junior Tailback) Re’Mahn Davis erupted for a career-high 280 yards and three scores on twenty-six carries, including a 75-yard sprint to the end zone at the end of the first quarter. As for Leary (pictured below), the QB didn’t need to do much, completing just 9-of-19 passes for sixty-nine yards and a touchdown, though otherwise managed the game well enough as the rushing attack repeatedly thrashed the Gators. Defensively, the Wildcats handled themselves well in league play for a second consecutive week, limiting the visiting side to 313 total yards, fifteen first downs, and just sixty-nine rushing yards, while piling up three sacks, nine tackles for loss, a forced fumble, and an interception by (Junior Linebacker) Trevin Wallace, who has been their most active defender this fall. Through five games, Wallace leads the unit with 3.5 sacks and 5.0 tackles for loss, while posting a forced fumble and interception. With just five returning starters, including a renovated Secondary, the defense was always going to be the concern in Lexington this fall, though credit Stoops and (Defensive Coordinator) Brad White for getting this unit up to speed in a short period of time. Through five games, Kentucky has held opponents to a mere 15.0 points (20th in FBS) on 297.2 total yards, with 31.0 tackles for loss, 14.0 sacks, and nine takeaways, four of which have come in SEC play. Furthermore, the defense has scored THREE touchdowns thus far, with (Sophomore Cornerback) Maxwell Hairston returning two of his three interceptions to the house, while (Junior Safety) Jalen Geiger has brought back a fumble for six points as well. Tonight’s trip to Athens should provide them with their stiffest test of the campaign, with their rather large cadre of Cornerbacks matching up well with the Bulldogs’ Receiving Corps. Alongside Hairston, (newcomers) Jonquis Hardaway and Jantzen Dunn, who transferred from Cincinnati and Ohio State respectively, stand 6’1″ or taller, making full use of their size and length in defending passes downfield.
From a betting perspective, Kentucky is undefeated straight-up and have nearly matched that record against the spread, covering all but one of their first five outings. After hammering Ball State in the season opener, the Wildcats failed to cover a 34.5-point spread at home against Eastern Kentucky, an instate duel that ended in a reasonably close 28-17 victory for the hosts. Since then, Stoops’ troops have covered as a 25.5-point favorite over Akron, a 13-point favorite at Vanderbilt, and most recently as a 1.5-point favorite in that aforementioned romp over the Gators in Lexington. Since he arrived over a decade ago, Stoops is a middling 64-64-3 (.488) against the spread overall, including a 19-17-1 (.513) mark in that regard as an away underdog, which is the case tonight. The ‘Cats have covered seven of their last ten games overall dating back to last season, including four of their last five games away from Kroger Field. They’ve also been a solid bet when receiving points from the oddsmakers, posting a 7-3 mark against the spread in their past ten contests as an underdog. Furthermore, UK is 5-1-1 versus the spread in their last seven affairs as a dog of 10.5 points or greater, which again, is the case in this matchup. Looking at this particular encounter, Kentucky has lost THIRTEEN consecutive meetings with Georgia straight-up, though has managed to cover each of the last four. The last time that these Felines traveled to Athens, they rallied back from a 0-14 deficit, scoring their first touchdown in three meetings, eventually covering as 21-point underdogs in a 13-30 defeat. When they met last season in Lexington, the hosts provided the reigning and eventual National Champions with arguably their toughest test of the regular season, covering as a 22.5-point home dog in a 6-16 loss. Stoops & Co limited the Bulldogs to 363 total yards and three field goals before finally capitulating a touchdown midway through the third quarter. The Wildcats finally got on the board late in the fourth period as (Sophomore Receiver) Barion Brown hauled in an 8-yard score, but it was ultimately a case of too little for too late, as the home side could not overcome 247 rushing yards from the visitors. On the injury front, both Brown and (Junior Defensive End) Tre’Vonn Rybka are listed as questionable after missing last weekend’s win due to unspecified ailments, while (Senior Left Guard) Kenneth Horsey will miss yet another game due to a lower leg injury that has left the upperclassman with no timetable to return. Looking ahead, Kentucky will return to Kroger Field for homecoming against (No. 21) Missouri before enjoying their bye week, prior to entering a crucial segment of their schedule which will see them battle (No. 22) Tennessee and (No. 11) Alabama in a three-week span.
Meanwhile, the more things change, the more they seem to stay the same for Georgia (5-0, 2-0 in SEC), who for a third consecutive campaign find themselves unbeaten through five weeks with designs on securing a fifth SEC East Title in the last six years. Of course, these Bulldogs have much higher aspirations than that, as they aim to become the FIRST school in NCAA history to win THREE straight National Championships since Minnesota (1934-36) accomplished that rare feat, which would vault the program and (Head Coach) Kirby Smart into another stratosphere altogether. Last year, it was all about replacing a whopping NINE NFL draft picks from a historically dominant defense, while this year they return seven starters from the particular side of the football, though the same cannot be said for their teammates on offense. While replacing five starters isn’t necessarily an arduous task, especially when you recruit at the level that Smart does, it’s more about the names that have left Athens within the last calendar year. First and foremost, UGA bid farewell to the most successful Quarterback in school history, as Stetson Bennett IV is now plying his trade on Sundays following back-to-back National Titles and becoming the first player to ever take home that contest’s MVP award twice. Not bad for a walk-on, right? After an offseason competition with (Sophomore) Brock VanderGriff and (Redshirt Freshman) Gunner Stockton, (fellow Sophomore) Carson Beck earned the starting job and has not disappointed, completing an efficient 72.0% of his passes for 1,497 yards on a healthy 9.3 yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to two interceptions, while adding another two scores of the rushing variety to boot. The sixth-rated QB prospect in 2022, Beck saw action in seven games last season, and has done a bit more than simply manage games for the Dawgs this fall, piloting a balanced passing attack that has averaged 332.6 yards through the air on 36.2 attempts, which stands as the highest of the Smart era. Standing 6’4″, 215 pounds, Beck is a prototypical pocket passer in every way that his predecessor was not, allowing (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Bobo to transition this unit into a more pass-heavy attack. This was relevant in last weekend’s 27-20 survival at Auburn, in which they found themselves trailing 0-10 entering the second quarter. In a game in which they were held to a season-low 107 rushing yards, Georgia relied on the arm of Beck and the expertise of (All-American Tight End) Brock Bowers to save them from suffering their first regular season defeat in nearly three years. With the game squared away at 20-20 with just under three minutes left to play, Beck guided the visitors the length of the gridiron, finding Bowers (pictured below) racing across midfield, where he would catch the pass and proceed to barrel forty yards downfield into the end zone to seal the win, their twenty-second in a row, the longest active streak in the nation. Beck completed 23-of-33 passes for 313 yards with a touchdown and interception, connecting with Bowers on eight occasions for 157 yards and that game-winner, accounting for over 75.0% of his team’s 420 total yards. Sure, the fact that their defense relinquished 219 rushing yards to War Eagle was troubling, but they all but shut down the hosts’ passing game (88 yards, 3 sacks and an interception), and proved that they could win on the road in the treacherous SEC on a day in which they couldn’t simply line up and pummel their opponent to death via the run. These are the kind of games you need to win in order to grow into a proper playoff contender, and it is no surprise that these Dawgs appear well on their way towards doing so once again.
From a betting perspective, Georgia may be undefeated straight-up, but they haven’t made bettors any money thus far, posting a 0-4-1 record against the spread through their first five games. Granted, that is to be expected given that they have been favored by fewer than twenty-seven points just once this season, which was in last weekend’s rally over Auburn in which they were favored by fifteen points on the road. Under Smart’s leadership, the Bulldogs are 55-45-1 (.544) against the spread since 2016, including 16-26-1 (.372) as a home favorite. UGA is just 2-7-1 against the spread in their last ten games overall dating back to last season, while posting a 3-6-1 mark in that regard in their last ten outings contested in Athens. After Auburn enjoyed success rushing the football against their defense, it should be noted that this is a team that has bounced back well from such a performance, covering four consecutive games after yielding 200 or more rushing yards. As we covered earlier, Georgia has won THIRTEEN consecutive meetings with Kentucky by an average margin of 17.0 points, though have failed to cover any of the last four encounters despite remarkably permitting only TWO offensive touchdowns. Last fall’s trip to Lexington saw Smart’s troops manhandle the Wildcats on the ground, rushing for 247 yards on forty-six carries, with (Tailbacks) Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton accounting for eighty-one yards on twenty attempts. The visitors settled for field goals on three occasions before finally breaking through into the end zone midway through the third quarter. Defensively, (Co-Coordinators) Glen Schuman and Will Muschamp had to like what they saw as their unit relegated the home side to jut 295 total yards, including eighty-nine rushing yards on twenty-five carries, while logging five tackles for loss, a sack, and an interception. On the injury front, Georgia is largely healthy, with the only notable absence being (Junior Guard) Amarius Mims, who has missed the last two games with a sprained left ankle with no timetable for a return. Looking ahead, the Bulldogs will hit the road to face Vanderbilt next weekend before enjoying a bye of their own, setting up their toughest stretch of the campaign, beginning with their annual rivalry with Florida in Jacksonville followed by THREE consecutive ranked opponents, including (No. 21) Missouri, (No. 16) Ole Miss, and at (No. 22) Tennessee.