8:25 PM EST, NBC – Line: 49ers -3.5, Over/Under: 45.0
NFC heavyweights reignite one of the true classic rivalries in the NFL, as the surging Dallas Cowboys travel to Santa Clara to face the undefeated San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of each of the past two playoffs and could very well be a preview of this January’s NFC Championship Game. More so than just about any other team in the league, there is a considerable amount of pressure weighing down on the Cowboys (3-1, 2nd in NFC East), who in addition to routinely finding themselves under the media’s microscope, have been knocking on the proverbial door for years now. Indeed, it is enough to make you wonder just how long their championship window will remain open; since 2016, Dallas has put together a stellar 73-44 record (.623), including three division titles and four trips to the playoffs, which is generally where the party has ended, losing all but two of their six postseason affairs. By now, we’ve become very acquainted with the fact that America’s Team hasn’t appeared in or won a Super Bowl since 1995, while failing to advance to even an NFC Championship Game in that same period of time. In all honesty, it hasn’t been for a lack of trying or talent, as (Owner/Defacto General Manager) Jerry Jones has done a stellar job of making sure that the cupboard has been well-stocked, while typically keeping his top playmakers in-house for the prime of their careers. Simply put, Big D has had some rather unfortunate luck in the playoffs, with their campaigns coming to an end at the hands of better, more complete teams. With all that being said, there is a feeling around the league that they are going for broke this time, setting up a veritable last dance for many prominent figures of this current run. First and foremost, there is (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy, who in his four seasons in charge has posted a healthy 33-21 record (.611). After last year’s disappointing showing at San Francisco in the playoffs (much more on that in a bit), the 59-year-old opted to fire (former Offensive Coordinator) Kellen Moore and assume playcalling duties himself. Granted, he hasn’t called plays since his time with Green Bay, which ironically got him fired back in 2018. Then there is (Defensive Coordinator) Dan Quinn, who after going down in history as the man that presided over the largest meltdown in Super Bowl history, has thus resurrected his career in coaching the most opportunistic defense in the league over the past three years. In 2021 and 2022, the Cowboys amassed a staggering SIXTY-SEVEN takeaways, by far and away the most in the NFL during that span, which has given Quinn a wealth of suitors to become an HC once again. Oh, and we’d be remiss if we failed to mention (veteran Quarterback) Dak Prescott, who may need a successful finish to this season more so than anyone on the roster. After ending one of the most high-profile contract standoffs in league history with a 4-year, $160 million deal ($126 million in total guarantees), the 30-year-old hasn’t quite lived up to lofty expectations. Don’t get it confused, Prescott (pictured below) has been more than serviceable for Dallas, but over the past two seasons has missed six games due to injury, led the NFL with FIFTEEN interceptions in 2022, and turned in some disappointing performances in the playoffs. There is an underlying sense that the Cowboys haven’t received what they’ve paid for when it comes to Dak, who will be entering the final year of his contact next fall and is currently extension eligible. Needless to say, we’re not ruling out a scenario in which all three of these men are plying their respective trades somewhere outside of Arlington come March. So, with all that in mind, how has Dallas fared thus far, you ask? Well, apart from a real stinker in Arizona, the offense has looked strong while the defense has picked up where it left off a year ago, ranking fourth overall in points scored (31.0) and number one in points allowed (10.3). When we last saw them, they handed Bill Belichick his largest defeat ever as a Head Coach, hammering the Patriots in a 38-3 beatdown last weekend. This one was as one-sided as it gets, folks, as McCarthy’ charges raced out to a 28-3 lead at halftime, capped by a 54-yard interception return to the house just before intermission. When it was all said and done, the hosts rung up 377 total yards on twenty-two first downs, converted 8-of-15 third downs, and possessed the football for a commanding 35:09 of game time. Prescott completed 28-of-34 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown, while the run game churned out a workmanlike 124 yards on thirty carries. Defensively, Quinn’s unit forced New England to bench Mac Jones midway through the fourth quarter, who could muster just 150 yards and three turnovers on 12-of-21 passing. (Sophomore Cornerback) DaRon Bland picked him off twice and was responsible for that crippling pick-six, while the pass-rush made the QB feel uncomfortable throughout the evening.
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys are both 3-1 straight-up and against the spread this season, covering their first two outings by a WIDE margin (+60 points!), before laying an egg in their trip to the desert where they lost outright to the Cardinals despite being favored by 12.5 points. Fortunately for everyone involved, Dallas got their !@#$ together in last weekend’s thumping of New England, easily covering as 6-point favorites at AT&T Stadium. Dating back to last season, McCarthy’s troops are 6-4 against the spread in their last ten outings, while flipping the script (4-6) in that regard over their past ten trips away from Arlington. Big D has covered six of their last ten contests as an underdog, though have split the last ten matchups with San Francisco when receiving points from the oddsmakers. With that being said, there are THREE trends that are relevant for tonight’s showdown in Santa Clara; Prescott & Co are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five games after allowing less than ninety rushing yards in the previous week and are 0-3-1 versus the spread after amassing over 250 passing yards. Furthermore, this is a team that is 1-6-1 in that regard in their last eight games played on grass, which is the case tonight at Levi’s Stadium. Speaking of Levi’s, when the Cowboys traveled there for last January’s fateful NFC Division Round affair, they came up short in a classic defensive struggle, 12-19. In what would be the aforementioned Moore’s final game calling plays for the ‘Boys, the visitors could muster just 282 total yards on fifteen first downs, including seventy-six rushing yards on twenty-two carries, while converting 5-of-15 third downs and ZERO of their two attempts on fourth down. This one was all about missed opportunities, folks, as Dallas missed an extra point on their only touchdown drive of the afternoon, settled for a short field goal after driving deep into Niners’ territory, and fell victim to TWO crucial interceptions of Prescott, with the latter pick killing off a promising drive to the hosts’ 18-yard line that immediately led to a field goal right before halftime. Dak completed 23-of-37 passes for 206 yards, a touchdown and those two INTs, while (Pro-Bowl Receiver) CeeDee Lamb hauled in ten catches on thirteen targets for 117 yards. Quinn’s defense did a great job in slowing San Fran’s juggernaut down, limiting them to 312 total yards, with a recovered fumble, a pair of sacks and four pressures. Getting back to Prescott, he has split his four career encounters with the 49ers, completing 62.0% of his throws for an average of 234.7 yards on 6.48 net yards per attempt with seven touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, though both losses have come in the playoffs. On the injury front, the defense was dealt a MAJOR blow with the loss of (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Trevon Diggs, who will miss the rest of the campaign after tearing his ACL in practice last weekend. No player has logged more interceptions (18) than Diggs, since he was drafted back in 2020. With that being said, it’s not all doom and gloom for the Cowboys, who could welcome back the services of (eight-time Pro-Bowl Left Tackle) Tyron Smith, who missed the last two games with a bulky knee. This should provide a jolt for an Offensive Line that has been banged up in recent weeks, with (perennial All-Pro Guard) Zac Martin and (Center) Tyler Biadasz limited throughout the week of practice due to various bumps and bruises. Looking ahead, McCarthy & Co will stay on the west coast for one more week as they travel south to Los Angeles to battle Moore and the Chargers, before enjoying what looks to be a sorely needed bye given the relative health of the Offensive Line.
Meanwhile, is there a team in the NFL hotter than the 49ers (4-0, 1st in NFC West)? In fact, if you took away their loss at the Eagles in last January’s NFC Championship Game, this is a team that has won a whopping SIXTEEN straight games dating back to late October. With that being said, the real starting point for this current run of form for San Francisco was a 33-17 victory over the Dolphins on December 4th, which was began the Brock Purdy era for the franchise. Selected 262nd in the 2022 NFL Draft, “Mr. Irrelevant” has been anything but that during his time with the Niners, leading them to twelve victories in thirteen tries, with the bulk of them coming by a WIDE margin. Indeed, the reason that we’re going to exclude that fateful trip to Philadelphia from this sample size is because Purdy was knocked out of that game early on due to a torn ligament in his elbow, leaving him all but unable to effectively throw the football. In those other twelve games, the Niners have beaten their opponents by an average margin of 14.9 points per game, with the 23-year-old doing more than simply managing the game; the 23-year-old has completed an efficient 68.6% of his throws for an average of 235.5 yards per game on a healthy 8.21 net yards per attempt, with twenty-one touchdowns opposed to just three interceptions, while rushing for another four scores to boot. The fact that (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan and (General Manager) John Lynch went out of their way to cut (longtime Quarterback) Jimmy Garoppolo and trade away (2021 third overall pick) Trey Lance despite trading up a wealth of spots to select him, says everything that needs to be known about the franchise’s faith in Purdy, who has looked fantastic in his return from that aforementioned elbow injury. Granted, it also helps immensely that this team is LOADED from a personnel and coaching standpoint. Shanahan is arguably the top offensive mind in the NFL at the moment, while he and Lynch have done a tremendous job of filling this roster with quality talent and depth on both sides of the football. the 49ers had SEVEN Pro-Bowlers last season, along with THREE All-Pros on their defense, and that doesn’t even include (Wide Receivers) Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk, the former an All-Pro in 2021 and the latter well on his way to achieving that honor for the first time. Speaking of All-Pros, the cream of the crop when it comes to this group has been (versatile Tailback) Christian McCaffrey, who is staking his claim as the early frontrunner for MVP. Since arriving via trade with the Panthers, McCaffrey (pictured below) has been the proverbial wild card in Shanahan’s deck of cards, creating and exploiting mismatches all over the field. Be it as a runner or receiver out of the Backfield, this guy simply makes plays, totaling a staggering 2,109 yards from scrimmage (117.1 per game) on 5.8 yards per touch with twenty total touchdowns in eighteen games with the Niners. When we last saw him, he put together arguably his greatest performance as a professional regardless of what team he played for, erupting for 177 yards from scrimmage and FOUR touchdowns on twenty-seven touches, coming up just short of setting the franchise’s all-time single-game record, which is really saying something when you think of the stars that have worn that uniform. Last weekend’s 35-16 victory over the Cardinals went as expected, as San Francisco racing out to a 21-3 lead before the visitors made it look more competitive with touchdowns bookending intermission. However, the hosts put their foot down and scored the final fourteen points of the game, putting an end to an affair in which they amassed 395 total yards on THIRTY first downs, including 124 on the ground and 283 coming courtesy of Purdy, who completed all but one of his twenty-one passing attempts. The Sophomore met little resistance from the Cardinals defense, finding Aiyuk six times for 148 yards. Speaking of defense, (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Wilks’ troops conceded more to Arizona than they would have preferred, shipping 362 yards on the day, but managed to keep them out of the end zone for all but two of their five possessions of the evening. In his first season with the Niners, there is little doubt that he relished the opportunity to face the franchise that fired him following just one year as their Head Coach, but he’ll nonetheless be drilling into his unit that they need to do a better job of getting off the field after permitting 8-of-15 conversions on third down and 2-of-3 on fourth down.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers are undefeated both straight-up and against the spread this season, though that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ve been perfect, for apart from covering the spread rather comfortably in their three victories, they did fall victim to a backdoor push in their Week Two 30-23 meeting with the Rams (+7), who settled for an “inconsequential” field goal as time expired. Dating back to last season, this has been one of the better bets for bettors, as San Francisco has covered seven of their last ten outings overall, including all but two of the last ten in which they have been favored by the oddsmakers and nine of the last ten contests at Levi’s Stadium. Shanahan’s troops are 5-4-1 against the spread in their last ten meetings with Dallas in Santa Clara, while splitting their past five when laying points to the Cowboys. As far as relevant trends go, the Niners are riding a streak of six consecutive covers as a home favorite between 3.5-10.0 points, which happens to be the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, they have had Dallas’ number of late, especially in the postseason where they have taken each of the last two encounters. First, Shanahan & Co traveled to AT&T Stadium for the 2021 Wild Card and upended the favored Cowboys (-3), in a 23-17 thriller that was marred by a rash of penalties and some questionable clock management from the hosts, before last Winter’s aforementioned Division Round triumph that vaulted the 49ers into their third NFC Championship Game in four years. Though they were held to a modest 312 total yards of offense, the Niners controlled this game, with (former Kicker) Robbie Gould nailing four field goals early McCaffrey broke a 9-9 deadlock with a short touchdown run. The Pro-Bowler amassed fifty-seven yards from scrimmage on sixteen touches, while Purdy continued to prove his mettle against a stingy defense, carefully completing 19-of-29 passes for 214 yards and unlike his counterpart, committed ZERO turnovers. On the injury front, this is largely healthy team, with (veteran Receiver) Jauan Jennings listed as questionable after leaving last weekend’s game with a bruised shin, while (Backup Tailback) Elijah Mitchell carries that same designation after missing the win over Arizona with an ailing knee. Looking ahead, if they prove to be triumphant tonight, then there is a very real chance that San Fran could make it to their bye week at a perfect 8-0, what with trips to Cleveland and Minnesota on deck before returning to the west coast for a date with the fading Bengals.