8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Raiders -1, Over/Under: 44.5
Week Five comes to a conclusion tonight in Sin City, as the struggling Las Vegas Raiders desperately look for a favorable roll of the dice as they host the Green Bay Packers in this battle of two enigmas on Monday Night Football from Allegiant Stadium. Coming into this season, one of the league’s biggest unknowns was the Packers (2-2, 2nd in NFC North), who for the first time since 2008 rolled into a campaign with somebody other than (four-time MVP) Aaron Rodgers as their starting Quarterback. After a lengthy saga that saw the future Hall of Famer repeatedly state his wishes to leave the franchise that drafted him nineteen years ago, Rodgers was traded away to the Jets, opening the door for his longtime understudy, Jordan Love, to finally get an opportunity to perform. Simply put, the Packers are an unknown commodity because Love (pictured below) is an unknown himself; after drafting the Utah State product twenty-sixth overall back in the 2020 NFL Draft, he had attempted just EIGHTY-THREE passes over the course of his three seasons in the league, making only one start in place of an injured Rodgers last fall. Despite displaying great potential in college, the 24-year-old also exhibited poor mechanics and decision-making, resulting in one of the true pariahs of that draft class. However, Green Bay has been one of the most consistent franchises in the NFL over the last four years, with the infrastructure and support system put in place by (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur and (General Manager) Bryan Gutekunst remaining largely intact. Essentially, the only major difference between this team and the one that narrowly missed the postseason last year is the transition from Rodgers to Love. So, with roughly a quarter of the schedule in the books, how have things transpired, you ask? Well, there has been both good and bad, while injuries across the roster have made it difficult to assess how good this team actually is. Offensively, they’ve been efficient though unspectacular, averaging 25.0 points per game (10th Overall) despite churning out just 299.8 total yards (27th Overall), thanks in large part to making the most of excellent field position. On average, LaFleur’s troops are beginning their drives on their own 30-yard line (9th Overall) and have kept the chains moving on third down (42.6%,) before generally finding a way to finish in the red zone (69.2%), ranking a healthy eleventh and fourth overall in those two categories. For his part, Love has completed just 56.1% of his throws for an average of 225.3 yards on 5.89 net yards per attempt, tossing eight touchdowns opposed to three interceptions for a QBR of 49.7. It is evident that the proverbial training wheels have been applied here, with LaFleur insisting that his young signal-caller simply manage the game instead of taking too many chances, particularly given the absence of playmakers such as (veteran Tailback) Aaron Jones and (promising young Wideout) Christian Watson, who have both missed multiple games due to respective hamstring strains. Jones erupted for 127 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns before pulling up lame late in the season opener, while Watson made his season debut in last Thursday’s midweek 20-34 loss to the Lions, hauling in two catches for twenty-five yards and a touchdown. After an Anders Carlson 34-yard field goal opened their ledger, Green Bay relinquished TWENTY-SEVEN unanswered points in the first half, with an interception of Love being bookended by two punts apiece. Granted, the hosts managed to find a rhythm in the second half, emerging from intermission with a 12-play, 86-yard drive culminating in a short scoring toss from Love to Watkins, but it was simply a case of too little, too late for LaFleur & Co. In the end, the home side logged a meager 230 total yards on fifteen first downs, rushing for a mere twenty-seven yards on twelve carries, which led them to possess the football for only 22:02 of game time. Love completed 23-of-36 passes for 246 yards and a touchdown, but was also picked off twice, while taking two sacks, eleven hits, and suffering a total of thirteen pressures. Growing pains aside, if the Packers expect to see this kid develop on schedule, then they must be more balanced offensively. Sure, the game dictated that they needed to throw the ball to get back into it, but in their previous three games, they rushed for an average of 90.3 yards on 26.3 carries. Even with that said, with a healthy Jones back in action buoyed by the hulking A.J. Dillon, Green Bay should improve upon that sparse rushing production, so that they can make life easier for Love when probing downfield.
From a betting perspective, the Packers may be a middling 2-2 straight-up, but they have covered the spread in all but one of their four games thus far in 2023, with their lone loss in that regard coming in that aforementioned midweek defeat to the Lions. Green Bay has been an underdog in every contest thus far, which is a sign that the oddsmakers are still very much trying to ascertain who they are with Love piloting the offense. Dating back to last season, LaFleur’s troops are 7-3 against the spread over their last ten outings overall, while covering four consecutive trips away from Lambeau Field. Initially favored by a point in this matchup, they have since seen that number swing in favor of the Raiders over the course of the week, which bodes well for these cheeseheads, who have covered the spread in all but three of their last ten tilts as an underdog. Furthermore, the Pack are riding an 8-game winning streak against the spread after being held to fewer than 250 total yards in the previous game, while also enjoying the bright lights of Monday Night, covering four such affairs in a row. Given that this is an interconference battle, these teams don’t face each other often (five times since 2003), but for what it is worth, the Packers have OWNED the series, winning and covering each of their encounters during that span. When they last met back in 2019, Green Bay HAMMERED Las Vegas in a 42-24 drubbing at Lambeau Field; defense was optional in this one, folks, as both teams eclipsed 480 total yards, though the hosts managed to gain the upper hand on the strength of a pair of takeaways. However, there will be one HUGE difference between that conflict and tonight’s showdown in Sin City: LaFleur & Co won’t be able to count upon Rodgers, who was absolutely sublime in completing 25-of-31 passes for 429 yards and FIVE touchdowns. Jones racked up a total of eighty-eight yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on sixteen touches, while (former Receiver) Davante Adams (more on him in a bit), who now wears silver and black, was sidelined for that one with a sprained toe. On the injury front, this is a team that was very banged up heading into that Thursday Night affair against Detroit, and thanks to the mini-bye should be a healthier side for this Vegas venture. (Veteran Left Tackle) David Bakhtiari is still on injured reserve with a knee malady, but the likes of (Defensive Backs) Jaire Alexander (back), Zayne Anderson (hamstring), Rudy Ford (oblique), and Anthony Johnson (knee), along with (Guards) Elgton Jenkins (knee) and Jon Runyan (groin), (Linebacker) De’Vondre Campbell (ankle) and (Rookie Tight End) Luke Musgrave (concussion) are all listed as questionable to return to the gridiron having dealt with various ailments. Looking ahead, the Packers will head into their actual bye week following tonight’s game and will have a golden opportunity to establish themselves within the NFC thanks to a very soft upcoming stretch of the schedule; the (at) Broncos, Vikings, Rams, (at) Steelers, and Chargers await in the coming weeks, with those opponents owning a current win percentage of just .444, making it possible that the Pack could be sitting comfortably at 6-4, 7-3, or (dare we say) 8-2 before their rematch with the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.
Meanwhile, the Raiders (1-3, 3rd in AFC West) are once again making their case as one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL, for there is a sense that they should be further along in this, their second season under the leadership of (Head Coach) Josh McDaniels and (General Manager) Dave Ziegler. Last season, that tandem inherited a team that in spite of a clear need for reinforcements, was nonetheless a playoff side in 2021. However, Las Vegas fell well short of expectations, largely due to their inability to hold a lead, losing SIX games in which they led in the fourth quarter, by far and away the most in the league. With that in mind, McDaniels and Ziegler opted to make some changes across the roster, bringing in personnel that they were familiar with and in turn familiar with their system. However, familiarity has not led to success thus far, as the Silver & Black have been underwhelming on both sides of the football, ranking twenty-fifth in points scored (15.5) and twenty-fourth in points allowed (25.3). The offense has been particularly vexing, folks, for the additions of (veteran Quarterback) Jimmy Garoppolo and (young Receiver) Jakobi Meyers were expected to push this attack into high gear. Of course, the roots of both players lay in New England, where McDaniels and Ziegler drafted and developed them, making both Garoppolo and Meyers perfect fits for this offense. Couple that with the return of (2022 Rushing Champion) Josh Jacobs and (three-time All-Pro Wideout) Davante Adams and you have the ingredients for a potentially prolific attack. Unfortunately, what we’ve seen on the field has been anything but prolific, for the Raiders are one of just three teams thus far that have yet to crack TWENTY points. So, what in the name of John Madden is going on in Sin City, you ask? Well, Garoppolo has yet to find his rhythm in this reunion with McDaniels, tossing more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5), while Jacobs appears to still be working his way back after holding out through all of training camp in search of a new contract, averaging a mere 41.5 yards per game on a dismal 2.7 yards per carry. Sure, Adams (pictured below) has been great, and Meyers has been productive, but their collective impact is misleading as Garoppolo has targeted those two pass-catchers almost exclusively; together they have accounted for 57.5% of the team’s receptions, 58.0% of the total targets, and 62.9% of all receiving yardage. What we’re trying to convey is that this unit has been both one-dimensional and predictable, which is NOT a recipe for success. When we last saw them, they hit the road to Los Angeles to battle the Chargers, doing so without the services of Garoppolo, who suffered a concussion in the previous contest. The 17-24 defeat saw the debut of (Rookie Quarterback) Aiden O’Connell, who was literally thrown to the wolves at SoFi Stadium; the fourth-round pick had a VERY hard day at the office, folks, losing a pair of fumbles and tossing a backbreaking interception in the red zone with an opportunity to tie the affair late in the fourth quarter. Pressure was the problem in this one, as the Purdue product was sacked SEVEN times and pressured on eight occasions. Ironically, it was (former Raider) Khalil Mack who made the biggest impact, sacking O’Connell SIX times and stripping him of the football twice. Granted, the defense held Los Angeles without a point in the second half, but it simply wasn’t enough to overcome the self-destructive nature of the offense. In the end, McDaniels’ troops posted just 264 total yards, with Jacobs enjoying his best game of the campaign in accumulating 139 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on twenty-five touches, while Adams hauled in eight receptions on thirteen targets for seventy-five yards. Coming off their third consecutive defeat, this Monday Night affair could very well serve as a tipping point for Las Vegas, who may decide to cash in their chips and look towards next season. Keep in mind that the trade deadline is on October 31st, and there has been a wealth of speculation in regard to several notable figures, including Jacobs and Adams. Following the conclusion of his holdout, Jacobs signed a one-year deal (akin to the Giants’ Saquon Barkley) that all but ensures he will be in a similar situation next year, while Adams (31-years old) has repeatedly expressed his dissatisfaction with the prospect of wasting the end of his prime. If McDaniels can’t turn this around in the next few weeks, it would make A LOT of sense for the Silver & Black to trade them away for a bounty of draft picks, particularly if (Owner) Mark Davis is resigned to hitting the reset button once more in search of a new Head Coach and/or General Manager.
From a betting perspective, the Raiders have been just as bad against the spread this season as they have been straight-up, covering only one of their four games thus far. After narrowly edging the struggling Broncos (-3) in the opener (17-16), they were blown out in Buffalo (-7.5), 10-38, before being outplayed by a mediocre Steelers team (+3) a week later at Allegiant Stadium. As for that aforementioned trip south to Los Angeles, McDaniels & Co were getting 6.5 points from the oddsmakers after news broke of Garoppolo’s absence, and despite that late rally failed to cover the number by the slimmest of margins. Dating back to last season, the Silver & Black have covered four of their last ten games overall, though that record has been flipped in their last ten home games. As we stated earlier, they initially opened up as a 1-point underdog, which is notable because they are a middling 5-5 against the spread in their last ten in that role, which is marginally better than when they’ve been favored (4-6 ATS in their last ten outings). Given the various connective tissue between these franchises, including their meeting in Super Bowl II and the architect of the Packers’ success in the 90’s, (Hall of Famer) Ron Wolf, cutting his teeth in Oakland, this series has been very one-sided; Green Bay has won SIX straight meetings dating back to 1999, with Oakland/Las Vegas failing to cover any of them. In their most recent encounter, that 24-42 affair that we touched upon earlier, the visiting Raiders moved the ball throughout the afternoon, racking up 484 total yards on twenty-one first downs, including 155 rushing yards on thirty-one carries, though could not keep pace with the home side due to a pair of costly red zone turnovers (is there any other kind?). Jacobs led the rushing effort with 124 yards on twenty-one carries, despite his team being forced to abandon the run late as the deficit continued to grow. As is the case with their opponent tonight, the hosts will not be fielding the same Quarterback that they did in that matchup; Derek Carr, who was released in the offseason, played a large role in that tilt, completing 22-of-28 passes for 293 yards and a pair of touchdowns, though was responsible for each of those turnovers, the first being a lost fumble at the Packers’ 2-yard line that led directly to a touchdown right before intermission, and the second an interception tossed at his opponent’s 15-yard line that would also result in an eventual score for the home team. On the injury front, after missing last weekend’s venture to SoFi Stadium in concussion protocol, Garoppolo is expected to start tonight, while Adams is in the same boat after suffering blows to his shoulder in back-to-back weeks. Both players are officially listed as questionable. Looking ahead, if the Raiders are going to turn things around, one would have to figure it would be during this particular stretch, which is less than arduous; including Green Bay, they face the Patriots, (at) Bears, (at) Lions, Giants, and Jets in the coming weeks, with those teams owning a combined win percentage of just .360. Then again, if they can’t muster some victories during this portion of the schedule, then this is a team that could very well be looking at the number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which likely means McDaniels and Ziegler will be out of work.