3:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Washington -3, Over/Under: 67.5
PAC-12 powerhouses meet in a MAJOR showdown in Seattle this afternoon, as the (No. 8) Oregon Ducks are out for revenge in this battle with the (No. 7) Washington Huskies in an affair ripe with playoff implications. In these last days of the PAC-12 as we’ve come to know it, it is sadly poetic that the legendary conference has been this good in the final campaign before virtually all of its residents leave for greener pastures; the league currently has SEVEN schools ranked in the AP, including three in the top-10, which could finally see one of their number participate in the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2016. In fact, these two schools are the only PAC-12 sides to have advanced to the Playoff, and while they appear to be the strongest of the group thus far, it is bittersweet that they will both be joining the BIG 10 next Fall. With that said, lets focus on the present, where Oregon (5-0, 2-0 in PAC-12) has been the most impressive team in the league at this point, running through their schedule like a hot knife through butter. In his second season in Eugene, (Head Coach) Dan Lanning has the Ducks firing on all cylinders, as they look to take care of what they feel is unfinished business following last season’s disappointing finish. UO were on the fast track to participate in a fourth straight Conference Championship Game only to capitulate in a wild affair against Washington (much more on that in a bit) and succumb to a late collapse in the latest edition of the Civil War, sending them to the Holiday Bowl where they outlasted North Carolina in a 28-27 tilt (thanks to an extra point clanging off the upright). However, sixteen starters have returned to Oregon, including eight on each side of the football, none more notable than (Senior Quarterback) Bo Nix, who has placed his name firmly in the Heisman conversation. After an underwhelming three years at Auburn, Nix (pictured below) arrived alongside (former Offensive Coordinator) Kenny Dillingham and managed to exceed all expectations, completing 71.9% of his passes for 3,593 yards, twenty-nine touchdowns and seven interceptions, while rushing for another 510 yards and fourteen more scores despite playing on an ailing ankle over the final three games. Though he would likely have been selected in the first round of last April’s NFL Draft, he opted to return to the Ducks and even with his second OC (Will Stein arrived by way of UTSA) in as many seasons has managed to look even better. Through five games, Nix has completed an efficient 80.4% of his throws for an average of 291.8 yards on a healthy 9.0 yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns opposed to only one interception. The offense as a whole has been nothing short of prolific, churning out a staggering 51.6 points per game (2nd in FBS) on 557.8 total yards, including 227.2 on the ground, where they’ve logged a healthy 7.1 yards per carry. (Tailbacks) Bucky Irving, Jordan James, and Noah Whittington have all rushed for 146+ yards and at least two touchdowns, with each averaging over seven yards per rush. After leading the Receiving Corps in 2022, (Junior Wideout) Troy Franklin has been on fire this Fall, hauling in thirty-two receptions for 535 yards and seven scores. As for the Defense, Lanning’s unit has yielded a scant 11.8 points per game (5th in FBS) on just 255.6 total yards, amassing eighteen sacks and forcing six turnovers along the way. When we last saw them, Oregon eviscerated struggling Stanford in a 42-6 drubbing that will in all likelihood serve as their last trip to The Farm for the foreseeable future; despite a slow start which saw the hosts lead 6-0 after the first quarter, the visitors responded with FORTY-TWO unanswered points the rest of the way, outgaining the Cardinal by a whopping 284 total yards, including a 208-89 disparity on the ground. Nix was sublime in this one, folks, completing 27-of-32 passes for 290 yards and four touchdowns, while Irving and James each rushed for eighty-eight yards and a score. Franklin hauled in a pair of touchdowns of his own along with 117 yards on seven receptions, while the Defense feasted with FIVE sacks by five different players and ELEVEN tackles for loss. This afternoon’s trip to Seattle represents a significant step up in class from the opposition that they’ve faced thus far, though Lanning is confident that his side will fare much better when it comes to defending the Huskies’ prolific passing game this time around. Opponents have completed 61.0% of their passes against these foul for an average of 153.6 yards on just 4.83 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns versus four interceptions thus far. When these schools met last Fall, UW shredded them for 408 yards on 26-of-35 passing (11.5 yards per attempt!) with a pair of touchdowns and an interception. Six of the Ducks’ top-eight Defensive Backs are back from last year’s encounter, while Lanning added four transfers, including (Senior Cornerback) Khyree Jackson and (Junior Safety) Tysheem Johnson from Alabama and Ole Miss respectively, with the former leading the team with two interceptions and four passes defended, with the latter pacing them in tackles (30).
From a betting perspective, Oregon is perfect both straight-up and against the spread through the first five games thus far, covering some mighty large numbers in the process, including four games as at least a 22.5-point favorite. To their credit, the Ducks have continued to beat the oddsmakers, which makes you wonder just how long they can keep that up (the house always wins, folks). With that in mind, they had little trouble dispensing with both Colorado (+22.5) and Stanford (+27.5) in back-to-back weeks, winning both tilts by a score of 42-6. Dating back to last season, Lanning’s troops have covered the line in seven of their last ten games overall, including five consecutive wins against the spread after allowing fewer than 275 total yards in the previous game. However, life away from Eugene has been a different story for Puddles & Co, who are 5-5 in their last ten trips away from Autzen Stadium (though 4-1 ATS in their last 5), while dropping six of their last ten outings in that regard as an underdog. In fact, this is a team that is riding a 5-game losing streak against the spread as a road underdog, which is the case this afternoon. Looking at this particular matchup, Oregon has owned the series of late, winning fifteen of the last eighteen meetings both straight-up and against the spread. The visitor has won and covered five of the last seven encounters, including each of the last three, which bodes well for the Ducks following last Fall’s 34-37 loss in Eugene. Fresh off eight consecutive victories and peaking at No. 6 in the AP, Nix & Co found themselves in a classic shootout that featured TEN lead changes, 1,114 total yards of offense, FIFTY-FIVE first downs, and FIVE touchdowns from the two Heisman-worthy Quarterbacks. After trailing throughout the first half, the hosts slowly wrestled control of the affair after intermission, leading 34-27 with just under four minutes left to play in regulation. However, the home side shipped a 62-yard touchdown less than a minute into the ensuing possession and after a quick three-and-out gave the ball right back to the Huskies, who marched downfield in short order and drilled the 43-yard game-winning field goal. In the end, Lanning’s charges rushed for 313 yards on fifty-one carries, with Nix piling up 334 total yards and three touchdowns, while Irving and Whittington both eclipsed 100 rushing yards, and not to mention Franklin, who hauled in five receptions for 139 yards and a score. On the injury front, . Looking ahead, Oregon will definitely have to earn their distinction as the PAC-12’s top team, for after this trip to Seattle, they will face (No. 19) Washington State, (at) (No. 16) Utah, California, (No. 10) USC, (at) Arizona State, and (No. 15) Oregon State, which with all due respect to the Bears and Sun Devils is a perilous path to Las Vegas.
Meanwhile, it is remarkable just how similar Washington (5-0, 2-0 in Pac-12) is to their opponent tonight. Both schools feature a Head Coach enjoying great success in his second year on the job. Both schools feature a wealth of returning talent, including Senior Quarterbacks who have emerged as Heisman candidates. Both schools are also undefeated through five games and occupy a spot in the AP Top-10. After today’s affair, that last bit will be true for only one of them, with the Huskies hoping to draw on the experience of their triumph in last year’s trip to Autzen Stadium. Now in his second season in Seattle, (HC) Kalen DeBoer has his troops positioned for a run to the Playoff, thanks in large part to a high-powered passing attack that is littered with premium talent. Last season, UW went from scoring a mere 21.5 points per game to 39.2, thanks to an increase of 193.0 total yards, including a +145 improvement through the air. Like his counterpart in Eugene, DeBoer reaped the benefits of the Transfer Portal, acquiring the services of (former Indiana QB) Michael Penix Jr, who posted a school-record 4,641 passing yards, which also ranked second in the nation. Like the aforementioned Nix, Penix (pictured below) opted to return for one more season at Washington, and honestly, why wouldn’t he, given the talent that he is throwing to? From 2016 to 2021, the Huskies had nary a single Receiver crack 1,000 yards, only to field not one, but TWO of them last Fall. (Juniors) Rome Udunze and Jalen McMillan each logged 75+ catches 1,000+ yards, and 7+ touchdowns, while (Sophomore) Ja’Lynn Polk added another forty-one receptions for 694 yards and six scores. This Fall, the offense has been even more potent, producing 46.0 points per game (3rd in FBS) on a staggering 569.4 total yards, including a whopping 446.4 through the air. Penix has completed an efficient 74.7% of his throws for 1,999 yards on a very healthy 11.2 yards per attempt, with sixteen touchdowns opposed to just two interceptions, with that triumvirate of Odunze, McMillan, and Polk all totaling 20+ catches, 300+ yards, and 3+ scores. When we last saw Washington, they did manage to survive their first close call of the campaign, escaping Tucson with a 31-24 victory over a feisty Arizona side that pushed USC to the limit last weekend. After racing out to an early 14-0 lead, the two schools alternated scores the rest of the way, and though the visitors outgained the hosts by a commanding 132 total yards, they were sloppy in their execution, losing a fumble and receiving a dozen flags from the officials for a loss of 125 yards. Penix was held to a season-low 363 yards and without a touchdown for the first time in 2023, though it would be (Junior Tailback) Dillon Johnson that emerged as the chief playmaker, rushing for ninety-one yards and a pair of touchdowns on sixteen carries, while hauling in five passes for another forty-eight yards to boot. The ground game has been a bit of an afterthought in Seattle this Fall, particularly with (fellow Junior) Cameron Davis out for the season due to injury, though this showing against the Wildcats in which the visiting side racked up 111 yards and four scores on twenty-six carries could prove to be encouraging enough for DeBoer to preach a little more balance as they encounter stingier defenses. Speaking of defense, this is the primary concern for UW coming into this matchup with UO. Despite returning eight starters from a unit that relinquished 25.8 points on 373.0 total yards last year, the Huskies have been a little too generous in terms of pass defense in PAC-12 play, which is troubling when you consider that they’ve only met Cal and Arizona; against the Bears and Wildcats, these dogs allowed those opponents to complete 63.5% of their passes for an average of 297.5 yards on 7.0 yards per attempt, shipping three touchdowns in each game despite logging four interceptions. This is a program that has a stellar record in terms of sending talented Defensive Backs to the NFL, with six of them drafted within the first five rounds dating back to 2017, though it will be interesting to see how they match up with some of the better passing attacks in the conference, of which there are many.
From a betting perspective, Washington may be undefeated straight-up, but they haven’t been as unstoppable against the spread, covering three of their five games thus far. After comfortably disposing of Boise State (+14) in the opener (56-19), they fell victim to a narrow ATS loss in a 43-10 win over Tulsa (+33.5), before getting back on track with easy covers at Michigan State (+15.5) and at home versus California (+20.5), whom they hammered by a combined SXITY-ONE points. However, that aforementioned trip to Tucson was much closer than it was initially billed to be, as the Huskies escaped with a 7-point win despite being favored by 19.5 points. Dating back to last season, DeBoer’s troops are riding a 12-game winning streak straight-up and are 7-4-1 against the spread during that stretch. Life at Husky Stadium has been good to them, as they’ve covered seven of their last ten contests in front of their home crowd, though have been less formidable when favored by the oddsmakers, splitting their ten such outings in that regard. Furthermore, it should be noted that both of these teams are coming off a bye week, which is not something that has worked in the favor of UW, who have failed to cover FIVE consecutive games with rest. Looking at this particular matchup, the outright winner has covered TWENTY-TWO straight meetings dating back to 1999, with the favorite covering EIGHTEEN of them. Last year’s epic was one for the ages, folks, as Washington stormed into Autzen Stadium and led on FIVE different occasions despite being a 12-point underdog. This one was all about Penix, who really shredded the Ducks defense, completing 26-of-35 passes for 408 yards on a healthy 11.2 yards per attempt, with a pair of touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another twenty yards on two carries. Those two touchdowns were BOMBS; the first went seventy-six yards downfield to Polk, while the second, a 62-yard strike to (former Wideout) Taj Davis, quickly tied the game at 34-34 with just over three minutes left to play in regulation. The triumvirate of Odunze, McMillan, and Polk was in form, accounting for seventeen catches, 273 yards, and a score. On the injury front, both McMillan and (Senior Safety) Asa Turner are listed as questionable for this afternoon’s clash of titans, with the former missing the last two games with a leg malady, while the latter has been sidelined for the past three contests due to an ailing hand. Looking ahead, Washington will get the benefit of facing a few cupcakes in the next two weeks, hosting Arizona State before traveling to The Farm for a date with Stanford, but after that it gets TOUGH; (at) (No. 10) USC, (No. 16) Utah, (at) (No. 15) Oregon State, and (No. 19) Wahington State await to close out the regular season.