12:00 PM EST, FOX – Line: Ohio State -4.5, Over/Under: 45.5
With half of the regular season in the books, the contenders for the Playoff are beginning to reveal themselves, which is the case today as the (No. 7) Penn State Nittany Lions battle the (No. 3) Ohio State Buckeyes in a top-10 clash from the Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio. Many pundits like to annually push the BIG 10 East as a three-team division, even though it has been dominated by Michigan and Ohio State for years now, with Penn State (6-0, 3-0 in BIG 10) typically measuring in just below their fellow league powerhouses. During his ten years in Happy Valley, (Head Coach) James Franklin has brought welcome stability to a program that was in flux prior to his arrival, posting a stellar 84-36 (.700) record, including one BIG 10 Title (2016) and a pair of appearances in the Rose Bowl, winning the latter, 35-21 last January. However, there has been a clear divide between the Nittany Lions and the Wolverines and Buckeyes, who have claimed each of the last six league crowns since PSU did it seven years ago. During his decade at State College, Franklin is just 4-14 (.222) against those two schools despite finishing four of the last six seasons ranked within the AP Top-12. In fact, the 51-year-old Langhorne native has yet to beat both UM and OSU in the same season, which is likely what it will take for PSU to advance to the Playoff for the first time in school history. Last Fall, they marched into Ann Arbor undefeated and ranked tenth in the nation, only to get hammered by twenty-four points at the hands of the reigning BIG 10 Champions. So, will this trip to Columbus be the point where their perfect run comes to an end, or will it instead vault them into true contention for the Playoff? There are two distinct themes playing out for these Nittany Lions in 2023, with the first being the transition to highly-touted Quarterback, Drew Aller, and the ascension of a dominant defense that ranks among the nation’s best in a slew of categories. Despite owning a 32-15 record in four years as the starter and leaving Happy Valley as the school’s all-time passing leader, (former Quarterback) Sean Clifford had his detractors among the fanbase, who have been happy to usher in the Aller era, with the sixth-ranked recruit making an impact in this, his first season as Penn State’s leading man. Through six games, the sophomore has completed 65.2% of his passes for 1,254 yards on 6.9 yards per attempt, with twelve touchdowns opposed to ZERO interceptions, with his prototypical size (6-5, 230 pounds) getting NFL scouts excited. Behind an improved Offensive Line, including arguably the nation’s top Tackle, Olu Fashanu, balance has returned to Beaver Stadium, as the rushing attack has churned out 203.3 yards on 4.6 yards per carry, led by (highly-touted Sophomores) Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who have both topped 360 yards rushing and three touchdowns. However, as well as the young stars have played on offense, it has been the defense that has commanded the headlines, with (Defensive Coordinator) Manny Diaz’s unit ranking first in the FBS in points allowed (8.0), total defense (193.7), pass defense (121.2), pass efficiency defense (80.73), completion percentage allowed (49.1%), first downs allowed (67), and sacks (27). Six different Lions have logged multiple sacks thus far, led by (Edge-Rushers) Adisa Isaac and Demeioun “Chop” Robinson, who have combined for eight sacks, 12.5 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble, while (Junior Cornerback) Kalen King (pictured below) leads a stellar Secondary that has crafted a veritable no-fly zone at Beaver Stadium, picking off five passes and deflecting seventeen, even returning an interception to the house. When we last saw this unit, they logged their second shutout in three games, blowing out UMass in last weekend’s warmup for Ohio State. The Minutemen could muster just 109 total yards on nine first downs, completing a mere nine passes on twenty-three attempts for forty-five yards and an interception courtesy of (Senior Safety) Keaton Ellis. The Nittany Lions racked up SEVEN sacks on the day, with Isaac and Robinson combining for 4.5 drops of the Quarterback. Despite losing a pair of fumbles, Penn State still churned out 408 yards of total offense, rushing for 246 yards on thirty-seven carries, as Singleton and Allen accounted for 147 yards and a touchdown, while (Backup QB) Beau Pribula rushed for another fifty-nine yards and a score of his own on six rushing attempts. As for Aller, in roughly three quarters of play, he completed 16-of-23 passes for 162 yards and three touchdowns. With that dress rehearsal behind them, their first true test awaits them in this trip to Columbus against a team that despite playing very close in recent matchups, has consistently found ways to best them late; the Nittany Lions fell victim to fourth-quarter rallies in both 2017 and 2018, with the Buckeyes winning by a single point in each affair, while their most recent trip to the Horseshoe (which we’ll touch upon shortly) saw the Scarlet & Grey make yet another furious comeback. Will Penn State find a way to finally close in this series? We’re about to find out this afternoon…
From a betting perspective, Penn State is both 6-0 straight-up and against the spread this season, covering all but one of their last thirteen games dating back to last season (12-0-1 ATS). Since Franklin arrived in Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions are 67-50-3 against the spread overall, though are just 6-8 in that regard as an underdog away from Beaver Stadium, which is the first time that they’ve worn that hat this Fall. Coincidentally, the last time that Franklin & Co were away dogs was also the last time that they faced a top-5 opponent on the road; PSU was getting seven points from the oddsmakers in last year’s venture to Ann Arbor, where (No. 5) Michigan hammered them in a 17-41 affair. However, there are a pair of trends working in their favor coming into this afternoon’s seismic clash and they’re all predicated on that dominant defense of theirs; these cats have covered the line in NINE straight games after holding an opponent to fewer than 100 rushing yards, while also riding a 7-game streak of covers after yielding fewer than 275 total yards of offense, with both trends being the case today. Looking at this particular matchup, Penn State has lost six straight meetings in this series, including five consecutive defeats at the Horseshoe, though have covered the spread in each of their last three trips to Columbus. The last time that they hit the road to face the Buckeyes, the Nittany Lions trailed 24-27 in the fourth quarter before eventually falling 24-33. In last Fall’s encounter, Franklin’s troops were 15-point underdogs and appeared to be primed to pull the upset, leading 21-16 early in the fourth quarter. However, it was very much a horror show from that point onward, as the visitors silenced the faithful at State College in outscoring the hosts 28-3 before a late consolation touchdown made the outcome look more respectable. PSU rushed for 111 yards on thirty-three carries, with the duo of Singelton and Allen accounting for a combined 121 yards and a pair of total touchdowns, but Clifford endured a rollercoaster day at the office, throwing for 371 yards on 32-of-47 passing for three scores, though was picked off thrice and sacked on as many occasions. On the injury front, Penn State is largely healthy coming into this top-10 tilt. Looking ahead, the Nittany Lions return to Happy Valley next weekend to face Indiana before traveling to College Park for a date with Maryland before returning home once more for another clash with a likely undefeated top-5 side, Michigan on November 11th.
Meanwhile, their Head Coach, Ryan Day, may continue to lament his team’s lack of a definitive identity this Fall, but Ohio State (6-0, 3-0 in BIG 10) nonetheless find themselves in the exact same position that they were in this time last year. Last October, the Buckeyes came into their annual meeting with the Nittany Lions 7-0 and ranked second overall in the AP. Roughly a year later, they come into this matchup ranked third overall with a perfect record to boot. So, why is Day questioning his troops’ identity, you ask? Well, that would be because they haven’t lived up to their lofty standards on the offensive side of the football yet, which is to be expected after losing the likes of (two-time Heisman finalist) C.J. Stroud and three starting Offensive Linemen, all of which were selected in last April’s NFL Draft. Since Day was promoted to HC, his offenses have yet to finish a campaign averaging below 41.0 points per game and 500 total yards, though unless they catch fire over the second half of the schedule, this unit is likely to fall short of meeting those thresholds; with six games in the books, OSU has averaged 36.0 points (21st in FBS) on 443.0 total yards, including 308.0 yards through the air on a healthy 9.5 yards per attempt and 135.0 rushing yards on 4.3 yards per carry. As we’ll get into shortly, injuries have struck the Buckeyes’ Backfield of late, leaving the attack as unbalanced as it has been during Day’s tenure on the sidelines. There is also the presence of (Junior Quarterback) Kyle McCord, who after patiently waiting for his opportunity behind Stroud, is finally the starting signal-caller in Columbus. Filling the void left by the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft was always going to be a difficult task, but to his credit, McCord has been efficient in completing 64.1% of his throws for 1,651 yards, eleven touchdowns and just one interception, though has begun to build some momentum as his rapport with a star-studded Receiving Corps has strengthened, tossing five touchdowns and 596 yards in the last two outings alone. Of course, when you have playmakers such as (Juniors) Marvin Harrison Jr and Emeka Egbuka to throw to, it is hard not to simply drop back and let it fly on every snap. Though injuries have slowed down the latter, Harrison (pictured below) has picked up where he left off last year, cementing himself as the most dangerous pass-catcher in college football. Standing a lithe 6-4, this guy combines the speed and peerless route-running of his Hall of Fame father with tremendous size and leaping ability, which has NFL scouts absolutely drooling over his prospects. Though he has had some duds this Fall (3 catches for 32 yards at Notre Dame), Harrison has hauled in thirty-one receptions for 604 yards and five touchdowns, averaging a healthy 19.5 yards per catch along the way. With that being said, the facet of this team that not nearly enough people have talked about is their defense, which statistically isn’t far behind that of their opponent tonight. Ohio State has yielded just 9.7 points per game (3rd in FBS) on 263.5 total yards, including 154.3 yards versus the pass on a scant 4.9 yards per attempt, with another 109.2 yards permitted against the run on 4.0 yards per carry. After shipping 21+ points and over 300 total yards per game over the last three years, the Buckeyes were due to get back to form on this side of the football, with (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Knowles earning his hefty salary after an uneven first year in charge. When we last saw them, this unit shut down Purdue in a 41-7 victory in West Lafayette, relegating the hosts to 257 total yards on fifteen first downs, including 134 through the air on 14-of-35 passing. The Buckeyes racked up three sacks and nine tackles for loss, with (Junior Defensive Ends) Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau combining for all three sacks. (Junior Linebacker) Tommy Eichenberg led the visitors with eight tackles and one for loss, with he and his teammates shutting the Boilermakers out until early in the fourth quarter. Offensively, McCord & Co still managed to hang 486 total yards on their opponent despite committing a pair of turnovers, with the QB completing 16-of-28 passes for 276 yards and three touchdowns, one of which went to Harrison who hauled in six passes for 105 yards. That diminished Backfield that we referenced earlier, performed well in rushing for 152 yards and a pair of scores on thirty-nine carries. With the attack appearing to have found their rhythm over the last six quarters of play (68 points!), it will be interesting how they fare in this test against the nation’s staunchest defense. Can McCord hang around in the pocket long enough for Harrison to find open space? Will Day manage to run the ball just enough to keep the Nittany Lions honest? This one should have been in primetime, folks…
From a betting perspective, Ohio State may be undefeated straight-up, but they are 3-2-1 against the spread thus far, covering each of their last two outings against conference opponents as favorites of 17.0-17.5 points. First, they narrowly covered that line in a 37-17 victory over then-unbeaten Maryland despite being tied at halftime, while thrashing the Boilermakers in that aforementioned trip to West Lafayette last weekend. Since Day took over back in 2018, the Buckeyes are 30-25-2 against the spread overall, including 18-12 in that regard as a home favorite at Ohio Stadium. With that being said, there are a few trends working against Brutus & Co coming into this afternoon’s tilt at the Horseshoe; Day’s troops are currently mired in a 6-game losing streak versus the spread after scoring 40+ points in the previous outing, while posting an 0-4 mark in that regard as a favorite of 3.5-10 points, with both being the case today. Looking at this particular matchup, OSU has won six consecutive meetings with PSU straight-up, though have covered the spread in only one of those encounters. When they crossed paths in Happy Valley last Fall, it was a lively affair with both teams compiling 450+ yards of total offense, though it was a furious 28-3 run from the visitors that earned them the victory. The player of the game was undoubtedly Tuimoloau, who intercepted Clifford on two occasions, the latter of which was a crucial pick-6 during that aforementioned run during the fourth quarter. The big fella also logged two sacks, forced and recovered a fumble, and tipped another of Clifford’s passes that led to one of the Buckeyes’ FOUR takeaways. As for Harrison Jr, all he did was haul in ten receptions for 185 yards, so yeah, it was another normal day at the office for Marvin’s son. On the injury front, Day & Co have been banged up in the Backfield and could continue to be so today, as both (Junior Tailbacks) TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams were held out of last weekend’s win over Purdue due to unspecified ailments, while (fellow Junior) Chip Trayanum left the contest with a malady of his own. Day was forced to burn the redshirt of (Sophomore) Dallan Hayden, who rushed eleven times for seventy-six yards. For what it is worth, all three ‘Backs are listed as questionable and could be available this afternoon. Looking ahead, Ohio State will make the trip to Madison to battle a new-look Wisconsin side before enjoying a string of three consecutive warmups before their trip to Ann Arbor, which is likely to once again decide who represents the BIG 10 East in December’s Conference Championship Game.