8:25 PM EST, NBC – Line: Eagles -2.5, Over/Under: 51.5
Division leaders meet in a star-studded potential Super Bowl preview, as the high-powered Miami Dolphins take their show on the road to the City of Brotherly Love where they will meet the Philadelphia Eagles, who are looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season. Coming into this Fall, a trendy pick to make a leap in the AFC was the Dolphins (5-1, 1st in AFC East), who after advancing to the playoffs for the first time since 2016 appeared to be primed to challenge for the opportunity to represent the conference in Super Bowl LVIII, which would be the first time they’ve done so since 1984. With that said, we seriously doubt that anyone could have foreseen THIS coming from Miami, who are riding the wave of a record-setting attack that is well on track to being the most prolific in NFL history. With six games in the books, (Head Coach) Mike McDaniel’s troops have averaged a whopping 37.2 points (1st Overall) on 505.6 total yards (1st Overall), including 323.8 yards through the air (1st Overall) on a very healthy 9.03 net yards per attempt (1st Overall), along with another 181.8 yards on the ground (1st Overall) on a staggering 6.5 yards per carry (1st Overall). In fact, no team has amassed as many points or yards through their first six games as these guys, who are on pace to shatter those single-season records. Of course, the secret to their success has been no secret at all: SPEED. Simply put, this is the fastest team in the NFL by a wide margin, with a handful of players capable of taking it to the house from any point on the field. Chief among them has been (perennial Pro-Bowl Wideout) Tyreek Hill, who continues to be the premier deep threat in the league. How good has Hill (pictured below) been, you ask? Well, the 29-year-old sits atop the NFL in receiving yards (814), yards per catch (19.4), and touchdowns (6), racking up an insane 135.7 yards per game. Furthermore, he needs just 186 receiving yards in his next two games to become the first player in the Super Bowl era to record 1,000+ yards in his first eight games of a season, which has the speedster firmly entrenched in the early MVP discussion. However, he’s far from the only weapon in McDaniel’s arsenal, for (fellow Receiver) Jaylen Waddle has brought in twenty-four catches for 296 yards and a pair of scores, while (veteran Tailback) Raheem Mostert has enjoyed a career campaign in rushing for 429 yards and NINE touchdowns on 5.7 yards per carry. With that being said, the primary concern coming into this season was the availability of (young Quarterback) Tua Tagovailoa, who in the previous three seasons had missed FOURTEEN games due to various injuries. Drafted fifth overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, the club expected Tagovailoa to become the franchise passer that they’ve longed for since the days of Dan Marino, and while he has certainly posted his share of highs, repeated spells on the sidelines have disrupted his progression. Two separate concussions kept him out of action last season, including the Dolphins’ loss to the Bills in last year’s Wild Card playoffs, with his future up in the air as he entered the final year of his rookie deal. To his credit, the 25-year-old has remained healthy thus far, logging career-highs in a slew of categories, including completion percentage (71.1%), yards per game (312.7), touchdown percentage (7.1%), yards per attempt (9.5), net yards per attempt (9.03), yards per completion (13.4), and passer rating (114.1), all the while leading the league in passing yards (1,876) and passing touchdowns (14). Though he doesn’t have the strongest arm and will never be confused with the likes of Lamar Jackson in terms of mobility, Tua is an accurate trigger man who anticipates very well, operating much like a point guard distributing the ball to his cache of weapons. When we last saw he and Miami, they overcame a slow start to blow out the winless Panthers in a 42-21 route at Hard Rock Stadium last weekend. Trailing 0-14 early in the second quarter, the hosts quickly put their collective foot on the gas and ran off THIRTY-FIVE unanswered points, with the visitors only score the rest of the way being a 61-yard interception return of (Backup QB) Mike White in garbage time. In the end, the Fins outgained the Panthers 424-296, as Tua completed 21-of-31 passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns, with Hill erupting for 163 yards and a score on just six catches. Mostert made a lot of fantasy owners happy as well, rushing for 115 yards and two scores on seventeen carries, while hauling in another touchdown via the pass. It was the fourth game this season in which they totaled 30+ points and 420+ yards, pulling that trick in each of the last two weeks despite losing the turnover battle 0-4.
From a betting perspective, the Dolphins are both 5-1 straight-up and against the spread thus far, covering each of their two outings despite being a sizeable favorite of 13+ points following their lone defeat of the campaign. They were narrowly bested a 13-point spread in a 31-16 victory over Giants two weeks ago, before coming from behind to cover as 14-point favorites in that aforementioned win over the Panthers last Sunday. Dating back to last Fall, Miami has been making bettors money, covering all but one of their last ten contests overall, including four of their past five trips away from Hard Rock Stadium. The same can be said for when they’ve been underdogs, posting a 4-1 mark against the spread in their last five when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they’ve been a smart bet for those wagering on them following a strong offensive performance, as McDaniel’s troops are riding a 4-game win streak against the spread after amassing 350+ yards of total offense. Looking at this particular matchup, these two teams don’t meet very often, logging just five encounters since the turn of the century, with the Fins taking each of the last two. In their most recent meeting, a 37-31 victory on South Beach, the hosts were 10.5-point underdogs, yet nonetheless managed to rally back from a 14-point deficit in the second half. While there aren’t many players left over from either team since that affair, the Ryan Fitzpatrick torched Philly’s Secondary for 365 yards and three touchdowns on 27-of-39 passing, including a crucial two-point conversion early in the fourth period. Over the course of his career, Hill has faced the Eagles twice, winning both games and hauling in fifteen receptions on eighteen targets for 229 yards on 15.2 yards per catch and three touchdowns. On the injury front, the Dolphins are dealing with some significant absences, including (electrifying Rookie Tailback) DeVon Achane (knee), (Left Tackle) Terron Armstead (knee), and (young Receiver) River Cracraft (shoulder) who are all out indefinitely. Furthermore, (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Xavien Howard (groin) and (veteran guard) Connor Williams (groin) are listed as questionable with various ailments. However, this week saw the team remove (veteran Cornerback) Jalen Ramsey from Injured Reserve, beginning the 21-day window for him to get back on the field. Miami acquired the 3-time All-Pro via trade in the offseason with hopes of pairing him with Howard to form the league’s top tandem of CBs, though he has yet to play this Fall after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ligament in his knee back in July. Looking ahead, the schedule doesn’t let up for these Fins, who will embark on a trip to Germany to face the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Chiefs in Frankfurt, before enjoying their bye week as they return home.
Meanwhile, after advancing to Super Bowl LVII and very nearly earning the franchise’s second Lombardi Trophy, the Eagles (5-1, 1st in NFC East) were expected to be among the few elite sides in the NFC competing for the right to reach that stage come February. However, while their record indicates that that remains the case, this is a team that has yet to truly put it all together despite facing a very soft schedule to begin the campaign. Like many teams that enjoy such success, Philadelphia was picked apart during the offseason, with a number of key players and coaches departing. While (General Manager) Howie Roseman has done a tremendous job of making sure that the proverbial cupboard is filled with talent, the most notable losses for (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni have been on his coaching staff: (former Offensive and Defensive Coordinators) Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon. Simply put, these guys earned their respective head coaching gigs based on their stellar work with the birds, with the former crafting a bleeding edge offense around the meteoric rise of (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Jalen Hurts, while the latter helmed a menacing defense built upon pressure, logging the second-most sacks in a single season in NFL history (70!). To replace them, Sirianni opted to stay in in house on offense, promoting (QB Coach) Brian Johnson, while importing Sean Desai on defense. Needless to say, the results have been mixed thus far as both sides of the football continue to get acclimated to the new coaches. Offensively, the Eagles have averaged 25.8 points (5th Overall) on 407.0 total yards (2nd Overall), including 257.0 through the air (9th Overall) on 6.48 net yards per attempt (8th Overall), along with 150.0 on the ground (2nd Overall) on 4.5 yards per carry (8th overall). Though they have converted on third down better than any team in the league (thanks in large part to the Brotherly Shove), the same can’t be said in the red zone, where they have punched it in for six on 45.5% of their opportunities (23rd Overall). After a career campaign in 2022, Hurts (pictured below) hasn’t been nearly as efficient throwing the ball, tossing more interceptions (7) than he did in all of last season (6). This was the case in last weekend’s 14-20 loss at the Jets, in which the offense committed FOUR turnovers, including THREE interceptions from the 25-year-old. Philadelphia led 14-3 late in the first half, though saw an opportunity to extend their advantage go by the wayside with a lost fumble and a quick three-and-out that New York turned into successive field goals. Then there was the second half, which was quite simply a calamity of errors for Sirianni’s charges. After punting on their first two possessions post intermission, Hurts was picked off twice, bookending another drive that ended in a missed 37-yard field goal attempt from (Kicker) Jake Elliott. After the third interception, the hosts set up shop at the visitors’ 8-yard line and proceeded to punch it in on the ensuing play. The Eagles outgained the Jets 348-244 on the day, but were held to a season-low eighty rushing yards and suffered self-immolation thanks to that quartet of turnovers. Hurts completed 28-of-45 passes for 280 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for another forty-seven yards and a score on eight carries, while (Pro-Bowl Receiver) A.J. Brown hauled in seven catches for 131 yards. Defensively, the visiting side sacked Zach Wilson FIVE times, hit him on ten occasions, and racked up SIXTEEN pressures, but couldn’t force the big play that could have compensated for their offense’s wasteful nature. (Veteran Edge-Rusher) Haason Reddick, who thrived in his first season with the birds, sacked Wilson 2.5 times and hit him thrice. On the season, this defense is also very much learning to fly under Desai’s guidance, ranking sixteenth in points allowed (20.7) thanks in large part to a pass defense sitting at twentieth (232.2) and an 11-2 TD/INT ratio. Philly has also struggled on third down (41.6%) and in the red zone (65.0%), ranking twenty-second and twenty-fifth respectively in those categories. The concern in Philly is that they’ve been doing this up against one of the weakest schedules in the NFL, with their opponents thus far owning a win percentage of just .428, which as we’ll get into shortly, is about to change in a big way.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles may be 5-1 straight-up, but they are just 3-2-1 against the spread thus far, covering only one of their last three outings. After edging the Rams as 3.5-point favorites in a 23-14 victory in Los Angeles, they self-destructed in the Meadowlands last weekend, losing outright despite being favored by 6.5 points. Dating back to last season, Philadelphia is a middling 5-4-1 against the spread in the last ten games overall, while matching that mark in their past ten contests as a favorite (which has been often). As we touched upon earlier, these sides don’t cross paths often, and it has been since 2011 that Philly has skewered these Fins in a regular season meeting. When they met in that aforementioned 31-37 affair four years ago, the birds flew south and laid a proverbial egg, losing outright despite being favored by 10.5 points. The Eagles led throughout the affair, though simply couldn’t put the hosts away as the visitors, coached by Doug Pederson and quarterbacked by Carson Wentz, fell victim to TWENTY unanswered points in the second half, before Wentz was picked off on his last desperate attempt to tie the game. There aren’t many birds left in this nest from that contest, though (veteran Tight End) Dallas Goedert hauled in six receptions on seven targets for sixty-six yards, while (Defensive Linemen) Fletcher Cox, Josh Sweat, and Derek Barnett accounted for two sacks, three tackles for loss, and seven pressures of Fitzpatrick. On the injury front, Siranni & Co did not come out of that trip to MetLife Stadium unscathed, as (perennial Pro-Bowl Tackle) Lane Johnson left the game with an ailing knee. Word out of Philly is that he hasn’t practiced this week, which leaves him doubtful to participate in tonight’s showdown with Miami. As for (Rookie Defensive Tackle) and (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Darius Slay, they should both be in action after sitting out last weekend’s tilt with the Jets, ditto for (young Receiver) DeVonta Smith and the aforementioned Goedert, who both listed as questionable after being limited throughout the week due to tender groins. Looking ahead, the schedule is ramping up for the Eagles following that soft start, with a trip to the nation’s capital to face the Commanders, who forced them to overtime three weeks ago, before hosting the Cowboys prior to the bye week. Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, Dallas, and Seattle await afterwards, which should provide us all with an opportunity to see just how good the reigning NFC Champions are this Fall.