8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Bills -8.5, Over/Under: 42.5
Week Eight kicks off with a primetime matchup featuring a pair of teams looking to right the proverbial ship after back-to-back disappointing efforts, as the Buffalo Bills play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Coming into this campaign, expectations were admittedly low for the Buccaneers (3-3, 2nd in NFC South), who in bidding farewell to the successful Tom Brady era, have thus embarked on a soft reboot featuring a wealth of fresh, young faces. Indeed, (Head Coach) Todd Bowles and (General Manager) Jason Licht are committed to turning over the roster, with TWENTY-TWO additions, including FOURTEEN rookies, which is the second-highest total in the NFL this Fall. Make no mistake about it, after looking old and slow last year, Tampa has placed an emphasis on getting younger, which is why they have fielded THIRTY-FOUR players aged twenty-six years or younger, making them all of a sudden one of the youngest sides in the league. With that being said, the most notable additions have been that of gentlemen older than that, namely (veteran Quarterback) Baker Mayfield and (Offensive Coordinator) Dave Canales. After enduring a rollercoaster of a tenure in Cleveland in which he was drafted number one overall before leading the franchise to its first playoff appearance in eighteen years, Mayfield (pictured below) eventually wore out his welcome in Northern Ohio, as the Browns traded him to the Panthers during the Summer of 2022. The 28-year-old couldn’t catch on in Carolina, who released him after just six games, leaving him in limbo until the Rams signed him to fill in for the injured Matthew Stafford. Now on his fourth team in little over a year, Mayfield is making the most of this opportunity to resurrect his once promising career, with Canales playing a major role. A longtime lieutenant under Pete Carroll in Seattle, the 42-year-old spent eight years coaching Receivers until shifting over to QBs in 2018, with his work in the passing game a big reason why Bowles sought him out in the Spring. However, the interesting thing here is this: the Bucs had been one of the better passing teams in the league over the past five seasons, even pre-Brad, with their biggest issue though being the run game, which sunk to near historic levels of ineptitude last season, averaging a meek 76.9 yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry. So, what has Canales done to change that, you ask? Well, not much… it is hard to argue that Tampa has made any progress on this front, as they’ve attempted nearly 3.0 more rushes per game and have netted only 77.8 yards on a mere 3.1 yards per attempt. Simply put, this is a passing team with a passing playcaller and their performance thus far reflects that. The Backfield doesn’t scare anyone and the Offensive Line is void of road graders, while the bulk of the team’s salary cap is invested in the Receiving Corps (and the defense, of course). We’ll say this about Canales, at least he’s leaned into what they do well; the Bucs average 227.2 passing yards (15th Overall) on 6.19 net yards per attempt (14th Overall), while converting a healthy 43.2% of their third downs (10th Overall), which is rather difficult to do without the balance of a ground game. Mayfield is completing a career-high 65.4% of his passes, while his QBR (58.7) is his highest since his Pro-Bowl campaign of 2020, with his ability to get rid of the ball quickly really making the difference. Despite the lack of run game, he has been pressured the fewest of any passer in the league thus far (17.2%), suffering just eight sacks, though three of them came in last weekend’s disappointing 13-16 loss at home to the Falcons. With an opportunity to seize control of the NFC South, the Buccaneers instead fell to their third defeat in four games, proving incapable of clipping their opponent’s wings. Despite being gashed for over 400 yards, Bowles’ troops held tight thanks to forcing three red zone turnovers, all of which were fumbles. However, the pewter pirates could not overcome their own mistakes, with two turnovers of their own proving seismic; the first was a lost fumble at midfield on the opening drive of the second half, while the last saw Mayfield intercepted at Atlanta’s 26-yard line trailing 10-13 with just under four minutes left to play. The hosts would tie the game on their next possession, but the dirty birds would have the last word, drilling a 51-yard field goal to end the afternoon. Mayfield completed 27-of-42 passes for 275 yards, a touchdown and an interception, with (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Mike Evans hauling in a 40-yard score late in the first quarter, though the run game remained dormant in mustering just seventy-three yards on twenty carries. Apart from the takeaways, Bowles’ defense really struggled in this one, yielding 401 total yards, including 156 yards on the ground and another 250 through the air to the previously passing-challenged Desmond Ridder. This used to be a unit that was near-impossible to run on, though couldn’t get off the field as the Falcons converted a healthy 7-of-13 third downs. This was their second such performance in as many weeks, which leaves us to wonder what is in store for them in this trip to Orchard Park. Buffalo may be going through issues of their own (which we’ll get into shortly) but they nonetheless pose a plethora of problems for Bowles & Co to solve. Will Mayfield hold up against one of the better pass-rushes in the NFL? Will the defense be able to get Josh Allen and those playmakers off the field? This matchup should go a long way towards revealing whether or not these Bucs are the team that started 3-1 or the one that has lost two of three out of four…
From a betting perspective, the Buccaneers are 3-3 straight-up and against the spread, covering each of the three games that they have won outright. That means they have failed to cover three of their last four contests, which brings their record in that regard under Bowles to a nauseating 7-16 against the spread! Has there been a worse coach from a spread standpoint? Dating back to last season, Tampa has covered four of their last ten games overall, including an identical record in their last ten trips away from Raymond James Stadium. The Bucs have also struggled mightily on field turf, posting an 0-6-1 record against the spread on such fields, which is relevant because the playing surface at Highmark Stadium is indeed turf. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams don’t meet very often, with just six encounters since the turn of the century, though the buccos have managed to win four of them. This includes their most recent affair, an entertaining 33-27 showing back in 2021, in which Brady overcame a furious Buffalo rally to win in overtime. There aren’t many Bucs left over from that victory, though the tandem of (veteran Wideout) Chris Godwin and the aforementioned Evans combined for sixteen catches, 196 yards, and a touchdown, while (longtime Defenders) Devin White and Shaq Barrett sacked Allen three times, hit him on seven occasions, and logged nine pressures. As for Mayfield, he has faced Allen just once back in his Cleveland days, completing 26-of-38 attempts for 238 yards and a pair of scores in a 19-16 win back in 2019. On the injury front, the Offensive Line could continue to be an issue on this short week, as (veteran Cener) Ryan Jensen (knee) has yet to play this season, while Matt Feiler is questionable with an ailing knee. Furthermore, Godwin is dealing with a sore neck, (veteran Nose Tackle) Vita Vea has been limited for weeks with a tender groin, while Mayfield has practiced lightly this week with a knee malady and a sore non-throwing hand. Looking ahead, the Buccaneers could get back on track in the coming weeks, as they travel to Houston to face the young Texans before returning to the Gulf Coast for a tilt with the Titans, who if reports are correct, could look very different post-Trade Deadline.
Meanwhile, their opponent may not have been saddled with any expectations to speak of, but the same cannot be said for the Bills (4-3, 2nd in AFC East), who came into this campaign on the short list of contenders within the stacked AFC. Over the last three years, Buffalo has ascended to the league’s elite, winning three consecutive division titles, while advancing to the second weekend of the playoffs each January. With that said, they met defeat in bitter fashion each time, leaving many to wonder if 2023 will indeed be the year in which they finally break through to what would be their first Super Bowl appearance since 1993. So, with nearly half of the schedule in the books, how have (Head Coach) Sean McDermott & Co fared, you ask? Well, after an inspiring 3-1 start, they have since dropped three of their last four games, thanks in large part to a defensive unit ravaged by injury (much more on that shortly) and many of their longstanding issues being exploited. Upon assessing this roster, the general consensus is that apart from (perennial Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Josh Allen and (All-Pro Wideout) Stefon Diggs, this isn’t an overly-talented group, as McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane have amassed a group of solid players that fit well within the offensive and defensive systems. Therein lies the issue, folks: McDermott and Beane have lamented Allen’s (pictured below) usage in the running game, with their intention to alleviate the 27-year-old of some of the burden that he has carried over the last four seasons. Offensively, the Bills rank third overall in points (28.3) and fifth in total yards (375.9), including sixth in passing yards (263.0) and fourteenth in rushing (112.9), while converting a healthy 48.3% of their third downs (3rd Overall) and 71.4% of their attempts in the red zone (2nd Overall). However, in the last three contests they have been held to just 19.3 points on 341.3 total yards, thanks in large part to their rushing production diminishing to a Bucs-like 79.3 yards on 3.6 yards per carry. This lack of balance has been in large part due to falling behind early and being forced to throw their way back into things, which has seen Allen throw three interceptions, while the team has operated from a turnover differential of -3, committing two in every game. Essentially, if this team can’t play with a lead, they’re going to make mistakes. Again, these struggles go hand-in-hand with the play of the defense, which has lost a number of starters to injury over the last few weeks. During this stretch, McDermott (who is calling plays himself this season) has seen his troops ship an average of 21.0 points on 385.0 total yards, while getting gashed against the run (141.3) and struggling hell to get off the field (52.1%). Now, one would have expected them to course correct on this side of the football in their annual trip to Foxborough, where the Patriots have fielded arguably the worst offense in the league thus far, right? That notion couldn’t be further than what actually transpired in last weekend’s 25-29 loss at Gillette Stadium, as New England played with the lead throughout the affair, racking up 364 total yards and converting 4-of-9 third downs (44.4%). The fact the offensively-challenged Pats only faced nine third downs should give you an idea as to the success the enjoyed in moving the football against this Bills defense; the hosts scored on all but three of their nine possessions, racing out to a 10-0 lead, while the visitors succumbed over and over again to their mistakes. Allen was picked off on his first pass of the afternoon, while a pair of 12+ play drives ended with a missed field goal and a turnover on downs, before a lost fumble on their final desperate attempt ended their comeback effort altogether. Interestingly enough, Allen managed to finally give his team the lead with 1:58 left in the contest, only for the Patriots to go seventy-five yards in 1:46, scoring the game-winning touchdown with only twelve seconds left to play. In the end, Buffalo logged 339 total yards, though it was mostly on Allen’s shoulders with the signal-caller accounting for 282 of their yardage and three touchdowns, but he also owned both turnovers, which proved crucial in breathing life into the Pats. Now, they face a short turnaround in which they are sure to be without a number of starters against a Tampa side who has been suffering their own dip in form and is likewise desperate to turn things around. This one has all the makings of an Allen breakthrough, as he will likely be forced to carry the load once again versus one of the venerable defensive minds in the league.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be 4-3 straight-up, but they have flipped that record against the spread, covering just three of their seven games thus far. After winning and covering three consecutive contests by a comfortable margin, Buffalo has failed to cover any of their last three affairs, including that ugly loss to the Patriots last weekend. Dating back to last season, McDermott’s troops are just 4-6 against the spread in their last ten games overall, including a 3-6-1 mark in their last ten outings at Highmark Stadium. With that said, this is a team that fared very well in these midweek tilts, covering FOUR of their last five Thursday games. As we touched upon earlier, these teams don’t cross paths very often, with their most recent encounter being that aforementioned 27-33 loss in Tamp two years ago. The Bills trailed 10-27 through three quarters, only to put their foot on the gas and run off seventeen unanswered points in the fourth period to force overtime. Unfortunately, that would be it for Allen & Co, who went three-and-out on the opening drive of OT, while the Bucs marched right downfield with Brady throwing a walk-off 58-yard touchdown. It was a wild affair in which both teams topped 460 total yards of offense, with Allen completing 36-of-54 passes for 308 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another 109 yards and a score on a dozen carries. The Pro-Bowler was sacked three times, hit on eleven occasions, and victim of a whopping TWENTY-ONE pressures, though nonetheless proved to be a major thorn in Bowles’ side. On the injury front, Allen has been dealing with a sore shoulder for two weeks now, while the defense has really been beset by a rash of injuries. (Veteran Cornerback) Tre’Davious White (knee) and (veteran Linebacker) Matt Milano (leg) are out for the season, while (Defensive Tackle) DaQuan Jones is on Injured Reserve with a pectoral injury. Furthermore, (young Linebacker) Terrel Bernard (knee), (Cornerback) Kaiir Elam (ankle), and (Defensive Tackles) Ed Oliver (toe) and Jordan Phillips (back) are all listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s contest. Offensively, (veteran Tight End) Dawson Knox suffered a wrist injury last weekend and is out indefinitely, which should see more targets go the way of (Rookie Tight End) Dalton Kincaid, whom the team drafted twentieth overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft. Looking ahead, Buffalo travels to Cincinnati for a rematch of last year’s postseason debacle, before returning to Orchard Park for dates with Denver and the Jets.