3:30 PM EST, FOX – Line: Oregon -6.5, Over/Under: 48.5
Week Nine of the regular season takes us back to the Pac-12, where the (No. 8) Oregon Ducks travel to Salt Lake City to battle the (No. 13) Utah Utes for perhaps the final time as members of the conference. That’s right, folks, for in a season in which the Pac-12 as we’ve come to know it enters its final campaign, the only two teams in the last four years to have claimed its championship meet in a matchup that will go a long way towards deciding the holder of its ultimate title. For Oregon (6-1, 3-1 in Pac-12), their 56-year-long association with the league will come to an end after the conclusion of this campaign, with the school set to embark on a new journey in the BIG 10 next Fall. For little over half a century, the Ducks have laid claim to thirteen conference championships, dating back to the old Pac-8. However, it has been full speed ahead for (Head Coach) Dan Lanning, who has upgraded the talent across the roster, thanks in large part to a slew of imports from other leagues, particularly the SEC. Of course, the 37-year-old rose to prominence as (reigning National Champion) Georgia’s Defensive Coordinator from 2019 to 2021, so he knows what it will take to make UO competitive within a new conference. Offensively, this is the second-highest scoring team in the FBS, averaging 47.0 points per game on 551.6 total yards, including 326.1 through the air and another 225.4 on the ground, equating to a very healthy 7.9 yards per play. (Auburn transfer) Bo Nix is now in his second season in Eugene and has thus thrown his hat into the Heisman race, completing a ridiculously efficient 78.4% of his throws for 2,089 yards on 9.0 yards per attempt, with nineteen touchdowns opposed to only ONE interception, while also tallying 105 yards and two more scores with his legs. Under (new Offensive Coordinator) Will Stein (by way of UTSA), Nix (pictured below) has operated much like a Point Guard in distributing the ball judiciously to the wealth of talent around him, including (Junior Tailback) Bucky Irving (871 yards from scrimmage and 8 total TD) and (Junior Wideout) Troy Franklin, who has become his go-to target, hauling in forty-four passes for 768 yards and eight scores. Defensively, Oregon has yielded just 17.0 points per game (16th in FBS) on 312.6 total yards, though have been touched up for 400+ in each of their last two contests, their lone defeat of the campaign, a narrow 33-36 affair at (No. 5) Washington, followed by last weekend’s 38-24 win over Washington State. For about one half of football, it had appeared that the hangover from that loss in Seattle was all-too real, as the Ducks got off to a slow start, trailing 3-10 until the latter stages of the second quarter. However, Lanning’s troops would eventually snap out of it and put their collective foot on the gas, outscoring the Cougars 35-6 the rest of the way until the visitors tacked on a consolation touchdown with less than a minute left. In the end, the hosts shipped a season-high 495 total yards though nonetheless amassed 541 of their own, rushing for 248 yards and three scores on thirty-two carries, with Irving and (fellow Tailback) Jordan James gaining 100+ yards apiece on well over 7.0 yards per carry. As for Nix, it was just another day at the office for the veteran QB, who in making his FIFTY-FOURTH start became the all-time most capped player in college football history, connecting on 18-of-25 passes for 293 yards and three total touchdowns. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see what kind of adjustments that Lanning and (Defensive Coordinator) Tosh Lupoi make on the defensive side of the football, for relying on the offense week in and week out is akin to playing with fire for a team that has legitimate aspirations of competing in the Playoff. Against all schools outside of the state of Washington, these birds are relinquishing 11.8 points on 255.6 total yards, though the Huskies and Cougars gashed them for an average of 30.0 points on 455.0 total yards. So, what gives, you ask? Well, despite the talent, speed, and athleticism that they possess on defense, this is a unit that simply hasn’t created enough big plays, with just SEVEN takeaways on the season, FOUR of which came in their 38-30 victory over Texas Tech back in early September. In fact, the only turnover that they forced over the last four weeks came in the only game they lost! Sure, the turnover differential is still sublime (+7) due in large part to Nix & Co taking pristine care of the football, but to truly become elite, this defense must find a way to take the ball away from the opposition more frequently.
From a betting perspective, Oregon may be 6-1 straight-up, but they have failed to cover either of the last two games with their overall regard against the spread standing at 5-1-1 thus far. After winning and covering each of their first five contests, the Ducks (+3) pushed in that titanic clash with (No. 5) Washington, before pulling away from Wazzu in the second half of last weekend’s affair. Under Lanning’s leadership, this team is a stellar 13-6-1 against the spread overall, including 5-2 as a road favorite. Looking at this particular matchup, Puddles & Co are just 1-3-1 versus the spread in their last ten ventures to Salt Lake City, though this encounter marks the first in which they’ve been favored at either venue since 2015; UO was favored by ten points, yet went on to lose 20-62! Furthermore, the home team has won and covered each of the last four meetings. However, when they met last season, (No. 12) Oregon never trailed in a hard-fought 20-17 upset of (No. 10) Utah in Eugene; the hosts built a 17-3 lead heading into the second half, where the visitors eventually tied it at 17-17, though a 41-yard field goal from (Senior Kicker) Camden Lewis would be all that was necessary to earn the victory. It was as defensive battle in which both sides were held below 400 total yards and committed three turnovers, though the connection between Nix and (former Receiver) Dont’e Thornton was incredible, accounting for 151 yards on just four receptions (37.8 Y/R!). Nix went on to complete 25-of-37 passes for 287 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, carrying the offense given the run game’s struggles (59 yards on 25 carries). On the injury front, (Junior Tailback) Noah Whittington is out for the rest of the season with a foot malady, while (Senior Cornerback) Khyree Jackson, one of those SEC imports, is listed as questionable after leaving last Saturday’s affair with the Cougars due to an unspecified ailment. Looking ahead, if the Ducks manage to return from Salt Lake City unscathed, then they will relish their chances of competing for a fourth Pac-12 Title in five years, with home games against California and (No. 24) USC, followed by a trip to Tempe to battle Arizona State, before closing out the regular season with the latest edition of the Civil War opposite (No. 11) Oregon State.
Meanwhile, on some level we like to think that the reason that all of the traditional powers within the Pac-12 are leaving the league is because they have come to the realization that they simply cannot compete with Utah (6-1, 3-1 in Pac-12), who has claimed each of the last two league titles, with an eye on a third to close out this era of football. Of course, this is a program that immigrated to the conference back in 2011 after dominating the Mountain West, and after an initial learning curve, eventually found their footing at a time when the league was being ruled over by the likes of Stanford, Washington, and their opponent today. (Head Coach) Kyle Whittingham is arguably the best coach in the country that nobody ever seems to talk about, posting a .681-win percentage in NINETEEN years in Salt Lake City. He has turned this program into a remarkably consistent force that has regularly punched above its weight, often taking their more historic counterparts to task. Over the last five seasons, he has posted a stellar 40-14 record (.740), including FOUR appearances in the conference championship and back-to-back trips to the Rose Bowl, where they gave (BIG 10 powers) Ohio State and Penn State everything they could handle. Next Fall, UU will make the transition to the BIG XII alongside Colorado, and given the realignment of that league, one would have to think that Whittingham & Co will acquaint themselves early and well in their new neighborhood. As for this final run through the Pac-12, Utah has overcome a wealth of injuries (which we’ll get into in a bit) at key positions only to find themselves competing for the league crown once again. (Senior Quarterback) Cameron Rising was the driving force behind last year’s Rose Bowl run, though has yet to feature as he rehabs from a torn ACL. Granted, Whittingham has bounced back and forth between (Sophomore) Bryson Barnes and (Redshirt Freshman) Nate Johnson, though has settled upon the former, who has repaid his coach’s trust in spades. In six games this season, Barnes (pictured below) has completed 58.4% of his passes for 633 yards on 7.1 yards per attempt, with four touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while rushing for another 124 yards and three scores via his legs. Sure, those numbers are unlikely to impress anyone, but the underclassman has developed a knack for making timely plays in big games. In the season opener against Florida, Barnes set the tone with a 70-yard touchdown pass to (Junior Receiver) Money Parks, before piling it on later in the second half with a 5-yard scamper into the end zone. Most recently, he tormented (No. 24) USC throughout last weekend’s 34-32 upset at the Coliseum, sending the Trojans to a second consecutive defeat and a third straight in the series between the schools. Resilience would be the word to best encapsulate what these Utes have been doing in 2023, which was evident right off the bat as Barnes found (Sophomore Safety) Sione Vaki, who was playing Receiver due to depth concerns, for 53-yard touchdown pass. The pairing would hook up for another score later in the third quarter, as the visitors continued to move the football relentlessly against the hosts’ defense. Lastly, with Utah trailing 31-32 with little over a minute left to play, Barnes stood pat in the pocket and took a huge roughing-the-passer penalty to advance downfield, before ripping a seismic 26-yard run down the sideline deep into USC territory, setting up (Junior Kicker) Cole Becker’s game-winning field goal. In the end, Barnes completed 14-of-23 passes for 235 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another fifty-seven yards and a score on ten carries. Vaki, who was herculean in this affair, caught five passes for 142 yards and two touchdowns, rushed for another sixty-eight yards on nine carries, and logged two tackles on defense to boot! As a team, the Utes tore up the Trojans to the tune of 482 total yards, including 247 on the ground, led by (Sophomore Tailback) Ja’Quinden Jackson’s 117 yards on twenty-six attempts. The defense once again confounded (reigning Heisman) Caleb Williams, who was relegated to 256 yards on 24-of-34 passing, with only a late rushing touchdown to show for his troubles, suffering three sacks and a fumble along the way.
From a betting perspective, Utah has been much better straight-up than they have been against the spread thus far, covering four of their seven games to this point. With that said, they are definitely trending in the right direction for bettors, covering three of their last four outings after a start in which they only managed one cover in three tries. In nineteen seasons under Whittingham, the Utes are a solid 125-103-3 (.541) against the spread, which includes a 9-7 mark in that regard as a home underdog. Speaking of dogs, the underdog is 5-3 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these schools, including five outright upsets, which was the case the last time that UU found themselves receiving points from UO; Whittingham’s troops were 10-point dogs in a 2015 trip to Eugene, and hammered the hosts by FORY-TWO points!. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, Utah is 4-6 straight-up and 5-5 against the spread versus Oregon, while splitting their two affairs in the Pac-12 Title Game. While they came up short in last year’s encounter at Autzen Stadium, it was a rather different story the last time that these sides met at Rice-Eccles, in which the (no 24) Utes hammered the (No. 4) Ducks in a 38-7 affair that preceded their victory over them in the Pac-12 Title Game two weeks later, which again, wasn’t close (38-10). Last year, Rising struggled mightily in completing 21-of-38 passes for just 170 yards and three interceptions, though his team kept it close by rushing for 156 yards on thirty-six attempts, accounting for forty-three yards on seven carries. With that being said, what really got the visiting side back into things was the play of their defense, as (Junior Linebacker) Karene Reid returned a fumble eleven yards to the house to cut the halftime deficit to just seven points. On the injury front, it should be noted that Rising has now been proclaimed OUT for the remainder of the campaign, after missing all seven games thus far rehabbing from that torn ACL he suffered in last January’s Rose Bowl. The same can be said about (Senior Tight End) Brant Kuithe and (Junior Tailback) Micah Bernard, who despite being key components of their conference championship run last Fall, have also missed the entire season due to respective injuries. Looking ahead, Utah will host Arizona State before what could very well be a Pac-12 Title Game preview as they travel to Seattle for a date with (No. 5) Washington, before hitting the road to Tucson against Arizona and returning home to face Colorado in the regular season finale.