4:25 PM EST, CBS – Line: 49ers -5.0, Over/Under: 43.5
A matchup that was projected by many to be a potential Super Bowl preview takes place this evening in Santa Clara, as the Cincinnati Bengals look to continue their climb out of the proverbial cellar at the San Francisco 49ers, who have suddenly found themselves mired in a losing streak. A trendy pick to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVIII, the Bengals (3-3, Last in AFC North) have looked anything but super thus far, thanks in large part to their annual slow start induced by the health of (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Joe Burrow. In each of the former number one overall pick’s four seasons in the NFL, Cincinnati has started slowly; in 2020, they were 1-5-1 through the first seven starts of his career, followed by a 5-4 start to their AFC Title campaign in 2021, and a 2-3 start last Fall. In both 2021 and 2022, he was coming off offseason knee surgery and was limited throughout training camp and preseason, forcing him to rediscover his timing and rhythm in September rather than in August. This Fall, the hope was that with a clean bill of health, he and the offense could hit the ground running, though fate intervened as Burrow (pictured below) quickly went down with a calf injury early on in camp. (Head Coach) Zac Taylor would go on to state that the injury could have sidelined him from anywhere between one to two months, effectively shelving the QB once more throughout the preseason, though the effects of that malady would continue to loom large throughout the first four weeks of the regular season. During that span, the 26-year-old completed just 57.6% of his throws for an average of 182.0 yards on a dismal 4.39 net yards per attempt, with as many interceptions as touchdowns (2), along with a lost fumble to boot. While he’ll never be confused with Lamar Jackson, one of Burrow’s greatest assets is his innate ability to manipulate the pocket, subtly sliding away from pressure to buy time for his playmakers to find/create space, though with that bulky calf he was largely unable to do so. However, in Cincinnati’s last two games, victories over Arizona and Seattle, he has begun to look like his true self; Burrow has connected on a highly efficient 74.1% of passes for an average of 251.0 yards on 5.61 net yards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to two interceptions. Granted, you’d like him to take fewer than fourteen sacks, but his sack percentage thus far checks in at a much more palatable 5.7%, which is a far cry from the 8.9% he suffered in 2021. When we last saw the Bengals, they emerged victorious from a defensive struggle with the Seahawks, whom they bested 17-14 prior to the bye week. Taylor’s charges started strongly, scoring touchdowns on each of their first two drives of the afternoon, the first being an 8-yard strike from Burrow to (veteran Wideout) Tyler Boyd, and the second another short toss to (unheralded Receiver) Andrei Iosivas. However, that is where the proverbial well dried up, as the hosts proved unable to string together a single drive consisting of 20+ yards on any of their ensuing nine possessions. Fortunately, the did manage to capitalize on an interception deep in Seattle territory, which (young Kicker) Evan McPherson responded with a 52-yard field goal to extend the lead to four points. In the end, Cincy could muster just 214 total yards on fifteen first downs, though that is a bit misleading given that they were afforded the luxury of a short field on two occasions due to a pair of takeaways. (Defensive Coordinator) Lou Anarumo’s unit performed well in this one, picking off Geno Smith twice, while also holding the visiting side on each of their attempts on fourth down. The hosts sacked Smith four times, hit him FOURTEEN times, and pressured the veteran QB on NINETEEN occasions. (Veteran Defensive End) Sam Hubbard logged seven pressures, five hits, and a sack, while (Defensive Backs) Cam Taylor-Britt and Mike Hilton each recorded an interception. As for Burrow, he seemed content in taking what the Seahawks gave him, completing 24-of-35 passes for 185 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception, with (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Ja’Marr Chase hauling in six receptions for eighty yards. As the calendar gets set to transition into November, it will be interesting to see if this team once again rounds into form, as it will likely take quite a run in order to back into contention within the convoluted AFC, particularly the AFC North.
From a betting perspective, the Bengals may be 3-3 straight-up, but they are just 2-4 against the spread thus far, though they have covered each of their last two outings prior to the bye week. After opening the campaign with four consecutive non-covers, Cincinnati appears to be rerouting themselves via the NFC West, with outright wins and covers against Arizona (34-20) and most recently Seattle as a favorite of 3.0-3.5 points. Dating back to last season, these cats have covered just three of their last ten games overall, though have been considerably better on the road, where they are 6-4 against the spread in their last ten trips away from Paycor Stadium, while really making bettors some money as an underdog, where they are a stellar 8-2 within that same range of plays. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams don’t cross paths very often, with just four encounters over the last twelve seasons, though Taylor’s troops have dropped each of the last two meetings, a 17-41 affair in 2019 before falling 23-26 two years later. That 2021 battle needed overtime to decide a winner, as Cincy rallied back from a 6-20 deficit in the fourth quarter as Burrow hit Chase for back-to-back touchdowns to push it to extra time. Unfortunately, the hosts were forced to settle for a field goal on their opening drive, setting it up for the visitors to march downfield and score the winning touchdown. The Bengals racked up 397 total yards on the day, with Burrow completing 25-of-34 passes for 348 yards and two scores, though he was sacked five times and pressured on nine occasions. Chase was responsible for both passing scores, while (fellow Wideout) Tee Higgins led the team with five receptions for 114 yards. On the injury front, Cincinnati is largely healthy coming off their bye, with (Pro-Bowl Tackle) Orlando Brown Jr listed as probable with a tender groin area, while that nagging calf muscle that has hindered Burrow since Training Camp appears to finally be giving way. Looking ahead, things won’t get much easier for Taylor & Co moving forward, as a playoff rematch with the Bills awaits next weekend, followed by dates with the Texans, (at) Ravens, Steelers, and (at) Jaguars, highlighting just how difficult the path to the postseason in the AFC can be.
Meanwhile, as their opponent is beginning to trend upwards after a slow start, the 49ers (5-2, 1st in NFC West) appear to have finally run out of the momentum that saw them win FIFTEEN consecutive regular season games. In the NFL, the fate of a team can often change dramatically from one week to the next, which goes to show just how thin the margin for error really is, even for the elite. So, what in the name of Bill Walsh has happened to these Niners, you ask? Well, all it took to halt this irresistible force was a few significant injuries to very particular personnel. We’ll get into the specifics in a bit, but in the meantime, we will cover how this has affected the offense, led by (Sophomore Quarterback) Brock Purdy. By now we are all well acquainted with the story of Purdy (pictured below), who was selected with the LAST (262nd!) pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, only to come in an absolutely thrive within San Francisco’s offense in the wake of season-ending injuries to the two guys ahead of him on the depth chart, Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance. Of course, the team went gangbusters en route to advancing to a second consecutive NFC Championship Game, where an elbow injury suffered by the rookie early in the affair finally brought their run to an end. In the offseason, (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan and (General Manager) John Lynch were so impressed with the 23-year-old that they parted ways with both Garoppolo and Lance, effectively handing the reins to Purdy, who did not disappoint; the offense averaged 33.4 points on 402.6 total yards, with a turnover differential of +7 through the first five games. During that period, Purdy completed an efficient 72.1% of his throws for an average of 254.2 yards on a very healthy 9.04 net yards per attempt, with NINE touchdowns and ZERO interceptions. However, ever since their opening drive in a 17-19 loss at Cleveland, this has been a unit that looked VERY mortal, scoring just 17.0 points per game on a mere 270.0 total yards with a turnover differential of -1. For his trouble, Purdy has completed 57.9% of his passes for 198.5 yards on 6.43 net yards per attempt, with more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2). If you take away a QB’s playmakers, he is likely to struggle, which has been the case here for a guy who has proven capable of running Shanahan’s offense efficiently. This was evident in last Monday night’s 17-22 loss at Minnesota. With the Vikings moving the football at will against (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Wilks’ unit, Purdy & Co had a very difficult time keeping pace; the visitors were held to a season-low sixty-five rushing yards on twenty-two carries, and that was WITH (All-Pro Tailback) Christian McCaffrey in the lineup after being held out of most practice throughout the week with an oblique strain that forced him out of the previous trip to Cleveland. As a result, San Francisco only possessed the football for 25:04 of game time, with Purdy completing 21-of-30 passes for 272 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. Balance is the key for this group, and they didn’t have it in this affair. For their part, the defense couldn’t get off the field much either, as the Vikings converted 8-of-13 third downs en route to amassing 452 total yards, 358 of which came through the air. Wilks’ troops failed to sack Kirk Cousins, who has historically struggled mightily in primetime, hitting him six times and pressuring the QB on eleven occasions, though nonetheless paid dearly for the times when they tried to bring extra rushers. Just before halftime and facing a 2nd-and-6 from his own 40-yard line with sixteen seconds left on the clock, Cousins managed to identify and thwart an all-out blitz by the Niners, hitting (Rookie Receiver) Jordan Addison for a 60-yard bomb to take a 9-point lead into intermission. McCaffrey played well enough despite the injury, compiling ninety-six yards from scrimmage and two scores on eighteen touches. That performance marked the first time in a calendar year in which this team had lost back-to-back games, and now it will be on Shanahan & Co to turn things around regain their momentum.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers are 5-2 straight-up thus far and have nearly matched that figure against the spread, posting a 4-2-1 mark in that regard. However, they have failed to either win or cover each of their last two outings as sizeable favorites on the road (6.5-9.5 points), with their most recent showing being that aforementioned loss in Minneapolis last Monday night. Dating back to last season, San Francisco has been one of the best bets in the entire league, owning a 6-3-1 record versus the spread over their last ten games overall, while really paying off at home in Levi’s Stadium where they have won and covered TEN consecutive contests. As we touched upon earlier, these teams may not meet very often, but the Niners have owned the series of late, winning and covering four of the last five encounters dating back to 2007. In their most recent affair, that 26-23 overtime tilt in Cincinnati two years ago, Shanahan’s troops utterly dominated the matchup through three quarters, leading 20-6 heading into the final frame of play. However, the hosts woke up with a fury and tied the game late to force OT, where after holding their opponent to a field goal on the opening drive, the visitors marched seventy-five yards downfield as Aiyuk scored the walk-off 12-yard score. (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Deebo Samuel made an impact as both a receiver and rusher with fifty-nine yards from scrimmage and a score on nine touches, while (Pro-Bowl Tight End) George Kittle dominated with thirteen receptions on fifteen targets for 151 yards and a touchdown. Defensively, San Fran was gashed in the fourth quarter, though nonetheless pressured Burrow throughout the affair, with five sacks (Bosa had 2 himself), six hits, and nine pressures of the Quarterback, while also forcing and recovering a pair of fumbles along the way. On the injury front, there are FOUR situations worth monitoring. First, McCaffrey’s availability was in the balance all the way up to kickoff last Monday night due to a strained oblique, though played and did so effectively. Second, (Pro-Bowl Left Tackle) Trent Williams and the aforementioned Samuel both missed that contest with a sprained ankle and fractured shoulder, with the latter already listed out for this evening’s tilt in Santa Clara. Lastly, and the most interesting, is Purdy, who has been treated for concussion-like symptoms throughout the practice week, leaving the QB questionable to start. Looking ahead, the 49ers will head into their bye week after this one, which Shanahan & Co will hope allows them to return to full strength. Afterwards, the schedule will be rather unforgiving, with a trip to Florida to face the Jaguars followed by a return home to battel the Buccaneers, before hitting the road for a two-game venture versus the Seahawks and Eagles, which will go a long way towards shaping the postseason landscape in the NFC.