8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Steelers -2.5, Over/Under: 36.5
Old rivals with similar profiles renew acquaintances tonight as both teams look to build some sorely needed momentum in this midweek clash between the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers from Acrisure Stadium in Western Pennsylvania. My, oh my, how time flies in the National Football League, for it was just two years ago that the Titans (3-4, 3rd in AFC South) sat atop the AFC with the best record in the conference (12-5). Though they would be upset in the playoffs, Tennessee would carry that regular season success into the ensuing campaign, winning seven of their first ten games last Fall, only to completely collapse in spectacular fashion in losing each of their final SEVEN outings to miss the postseason altogether. Granted, injuries played a heavy hand in their downfall, which set the table for a franchise that suddenly appeared to be in transition. (General Manager) Ran Carthon joined the club in the offseason and made a number of moves that would suggest that his charges would indeed be turning the page, with a number of longtime stalwarts entering the twilight of their tenures in Nashville. Both (veteran Quarterback) Ryan Tannehill and (two-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry are clearly aging, with each player capable of being released in the upcoming offseason with little penalties to the salary cap. Reports of their exodus only gained traction during last Apil’s NFL Draft, when (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel and Carthon selected their potential replacements, (Tulane Tailback) Tyjae Spears and (Kentucky QB) Will Levis, which marked the second consecutive draft in which the club picked a passer in the first four rounds. Couple that with a slow start that saw them lose four of their first six games and rumors began to circulate that Tennessee could trade both Tannehill (who suffered a high ankle sprain two weeks ago in London) and Henry prior to this past Tuesday’s Trade Deadline. Well, with the deadline now firmly in the rearview mirror, both figures remain entrenched in the Music City, though that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a QB controversy brewing at Nissan Stadium, for Levis (pictured below) absolutely SHOWED OUT in last weekend’s 28-23 victory over the Falcons. Instead of rolling with (Sophomore QB) Malik Willis, who did start a number of games in place of an injured Tannehill down the stretch last Fall, it says an awful lot that Vrabel and Carthon opted to proceed with Levis, whom they selected thirty-third overall last Spring. Against a stingy Atlanta defense, the 24-year-old couldn’t have put together a better debut, completing 19-of-29 passes for 238 yards and not one, not two, not three, but FOUR touchdowns, three of which were bonafide bombs of 30+ yards downfield. Indeed, Levis’ considerable arm strength was on display in this one, folks, as he stretched the field throughout the contest, developing a stellar rapport with (veteran Receiver) DeAndre Hopkins, who was also heavily discussed in trade talks, connecting four times for 128 yards and three scores. As for Henry, the future Hall of Famer churned out 122 yards from scrimmage on twenty-six touches, while the defense relegated the visitors to just 4-of-15 on third down (26.6%) and 1-of-2 on fourth down (50.0%), while knocking (Atlanta QB) Desmond Ridder out of the game with a concussion, sacking him five times, hitting him on nine occasions, stripping him of the football once, and racking up a total of pressures. (Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle) Jeffery Simmons continues to be arguably the best defensive linemen in the league that nobody outside of Nashville talks about, garnering six tackles, two sacks, and a forced fumble, while (Edge-Rusher) Harold Landry finally looks healthy after missing all of last season, notching a pair of sacks of his own. While this victory may not seem that significant to some, it could certainly prove to be the catalyst for the rest of the season. After all, a loss would have put them at 2-5 and on the outside looking in at the playoffs in the stacked AFC, and who knows, it may have hastened the departure of Henry, Hopkins, or Tannehill. Now that they are 3-4 and confident in Levis holding down the fort until Tannehill returns to health, it makes far more sense to simply stand pat and build upon their success. Earlier in the week, Vrabel has stated that Tannehill could return to the lineup as early as next week, though also suggested that his rookie teammate could very well serve as the starter for the remainder of the season. A strong performance in Pittsburgh will go a long way towards making that decision an easier one…
From a betting perspective, the Titans may be 3-4 straight-up, but they have managed to flip that record on its head, covering four of their seven games thus far, finally getting back into the good graces of the betting community after back-to-back losses in both regards. Interestingly, 2.5 points has been the magic number for Tennessee, who has covered THREE times already this Fall as an underdog of that value, which is once again the case tonight. Dating back to last season, Vrabel’s troops are a middling 5-5 against the spread over their last ten games overall, including a 6-3-1 mark away from Nashville and a 5-4-1 record as an underdog. Looking at this particular matchup, the Titans have lost four consecutive meetings in this series and have not covered the spread versus the Steelers since 2014. When they last crossed paths two years ago, Tennessee wasted a 13-3 lead at halftime, only to be shutout of the second half as Pittsburgh ran off sixteen unanswered points to capture a 19-13 victory. The visitors dominated time of possession (39:08!) by rushing for 201 yards on forty-two carries, though nonetheless threw it all away with FOUR turnovers, three of which were lost fumbles. Tannehill had a rough day at the office, completing 23-of-32 passes for 153 yards, an interception and a pair of fumbles, while suffering four sacks, eight hits, and eleven pressures. Henry missed the game with a broken bone in his foot, as (Backup Tailback) D’Onta Foreman churned out 135 yards from scrimmage on twenty-five touches. Vrabel, who was drafted by the Steelers back in 1997, has faced his former club twice, splitting the two affairs. On the injury front, Tannehill is likely a week away from being able to participate in practice, while there are a host of players listed as questionable, including the triumvirate of Henry (ankle), Hopkins (toe), and Simmons (ankle), along with (young Defensive Backs) Chris Murphy-Bunting (thumb), Roger McCreary (hamstring), and (Offensive Lineman) Chris Hubbard (concussion). Looking ahead, tonight’s trip to Western Pennsylvania marks the beginning of a three-game road trip for the Titans, who will head to the Gulf Coast for a tilt with the Buccaneers followed by a long-awaited rematch with the Jaguars, who eliminated them in the season finale last January.
Meanwhile, despite sitting one game ahead of tonight’s opponent in the AFC standings, the Steelers (4-3, T-2nd in AFC North) find themselves in a very different state of mind, as they look to rally from last weekend’s disappointing 10-20 loss to the Jaguars. Compounding matters is that they may be forced to do so without their starting Quarterback, though we will dive deeper into the health of (Sophomore QB) Kenny Pickett in a little bit. Coming into this campaign, one of the biggest question marks in the league was Pittsburgh, who despite rallying to a remarkable SEVENTEENTH consecutive non-losing season under (longtime Head Coach) Mike Tomlin, appeared to be very much of an unknown commodity this Fall, thanks in large part to an offense continuing to undergo heavy renovations. Simply put, the Black & Yellow were well below league average on this side of the football in 2022, finishing twenty-sixth in points and twenty-third in total offense behind a veritable youth movement at multiple position groups. However, the train of thought in Steel City was that with continuity would come progress for a franchise that has long championed the former in lieu of the latter. Well, with seven games now in the books, it is difficult to describe anything that we’ve seen thus far from (Offensive Coordinator) Matt Canada’s unit as progress; thus far, the Steelers have averaged just 16.1 points (29th Overall) on 292.0 total yards (30th Overall), including 212.3 yards through the air (25th Overall) on 5.35 net yards per attempt (26th Overall), along with a disappointing 79.7 yards on the ground (28th Overall) on 3.4 yards per carry (29th Overall). Furthermore, they’ve converted on just 35.1% of their third downs and scored a touchdown on 45.5% of their red zone opportunities, both of which rank twenty-fourth in the NFL. With a stat line like that, you can understand why the fan base has been very vocal in calling for Canada’s job. A lack of balance has been the biggest issue, which if we’re being honest has been the case for a few years now. Tomlin and (General Manager) Omar Kahn have addressed the Offensive Line in each of the past three Drafts, with that particular group underachieving in the trenches. To put this into perspective, Pittsburgh is literally the ONLY team in the league that has been outgained by their opponents in EVERY game thus far, putting them at an average deficit of 110.8 yards per game! Granted, part of that is Pickett & Co routinely operating on a short field thanks to an opportunistic defense that has logged the second-most takeaways in the league (15), though that only makes their inability to breach the end zone all the more troublesome. This was the case in last weekend’s affair with the Jaguars, which saw them turn the visitors over on three occasions, only to do hardly anything with the football; despite enjoying a dozen possessions including four that consisted of 8+ plays, the hosts could muster just 261 total yards on seventeen first downs, converting a mere 3-of-12 third downs (33.3%) en route to possessing the rock for only 25:44. Simply put, Tomlin’s troops were VERY wasteful last Sunday afternoon, going three-and-out on their first four drives before ultimately settling for a field goal deep in Jacksonville territory after driving NINETY-THREE yards in twelve plays. From there, they would miss a field goal on their next possession, before punting two more times. Pickett (pictured below) would be knocked out of the game with bruised ribs along the way, leaving it to (veteran Backup) Mitch Trubisky to pick up the pieces, engineering their lone touchdown drive of the day, culminating in a 22-yard strike to (Sophomore Wideout) George Pickens. It wouldn’t last though, as Trubisky would be picked off twice on the final three drives, bookending a turnover on downs to seal their fate. Neither Quarterback proved to be particularly effective, as Pickett completed 10-of-16 passes for seventy-three yards and a fumble, while Trubisky went 15-of-27 for 138 yards, a score and those two interceptions. The ground game was held below ninety yards for a third consecutive outing, as nobody had more than nineteen yards despite it being a generally low-scoring affair. Though he wouldn’t take another snap, Pickett was seen back on the sideline throwing in preparation of a return, which bodes well for his participation in tonight’s contest at Acrisure. However, this unit clearly has deeper issues apart from the health of their Quarterback, as Tomlin & Co desperately search for a way to unlock the potential of this struggling group. Changes are often made after bye weeks or following these Thursday tilts, which leaves us to wonder if Canada will indeed remain calling plays if the Steelers fall back to .500 due to another sluggish performance tonight.
From a betting perspective, the Steelers are both 4-3 straight-up and against the spread, winning and covering the line in back-to-back games on two separate occasions thus far. Last weekend’s loss to the Jags marked the first time this Fall that they failed to cover as small underdog, which has definitely been a sweet spot for Pittsburgh, with all of their covers coming as dogs of 2.5-4.5 points. Dating back to last season, Tomlin’s charges are 7-3 against the spread over their past ten games overall, including a 6-4 mark in that regard in their last ten outings at Acrisure Stadium. This is a team that has generally been a good bet to bounce back after a poor performance, as the Black & Yellow have covered SIX straight contests after an ATS loss, FIVE consecutive games following a straight-up loss, and FIVE in a row after being relegated below fifteen points in the previous affair. Looking at this particular matchup, the Steelers have owned the series of late, taking seven of the last nine meetings dating back to 2009, including each of the last two contested in Western Pennsylvania. When they clashed in that aforementioned 19-13 affair back in 2021, Tomlin & Co rallied back from a ten-point halftime deficit to blank the visitors in the second half, with FOUR Chris Boswell Field Goals and a quartet of takeaways lifting them to victory. (2021 Defensive Player of the Year) T.J. Watt was a proverbial wrecking ball in this one, folks, racking up 1.5 sacks, four QB hits and pressures, along with a recovered fumble to turn the tide post intermission. Of course, (former Quarterback) Ben Roethlisberger was in the midst of his farewell tour, overcoming a meager passing performance (148 yards on 25 attempts) by rushing for a key touchdown at the goal line in the third quarter. On the injury front, Pickett is officially listed as questionable to start in tonight’s primetime affair with those tender ribs that covered earlier, with the feeling that as long as he checks out during pre-game activities, he will indeed be given the green light from Tomlin and the medical staff. However, (Pro-Bowl Safety) Minkah Fitzpatrick is in a different realm altogether after leaving last weekend’s contest with a strained hamstring that will sideline him for this matchup at the very least. With that being said, the Defensive Line could see the potential return of (Pro-Bowl Defensive End) Cameron Heyward, who had missed the previous six games due to a partially torn groin suffered in the season opener. Looking ahead, Pittsburgh will complete this three-game homestand next weekend as they host Green bay, before hitting the road for back-to-back trips to the state of Ohio, where they will encounter Cleveland and Cincinnati in crucial division battles.