4:25 PM EST, FOX – Line: Eagles -3.0, Over/Under: 46.5
In a week packed with plenty of matchups full of postseason implications, a clash of bitter rivals takes the proverbial cake for us, as the Dallas Cowboys battle the Philadelphia Eagles from Lincoln Financial Field. Few teams are more acquainted with pressure than the Cowboys (5-2, 2nd in NFC East), who face their second major test of the campaign in this evening’s trip to the City of Brotherly Love. Coming into this season, the pressure was mounting for Dallas to finally get over the playoff hump after their run ended prematurely at the hands of San Francisco for a second consecutive year. Of course, we all know the story by now: since last hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in 1995, this is a franchise that has now gone TWENTY-SEVEN years without even so much as a trip to the NFC Championship Game, with (longtime Owner) Jerry Jones desperate to see his team reach the promised land once more. And it was with that said that the Cowboys marched into this year’s matchup with the Niners at a promising 3-1, only to get embarrassed in a 10-42 drubbing in Santa Clara that saw them outgained 197-421 and turned over on FOUR occasions. For those lamenting the growing gulf between these teams, that performance did nothing ease those feelings. To (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy’s credit, he and his troops bounced back a week later at the Chargers (20-17), before heading into their bye week to regain their strength, which they did as they absolutely hammered the Rams in a 43-20 blowout at AT&T Stadium last weekend. Simply put, this one was never close, folks, as the hosts raced out to a commanding 33-3 lead before the visitors finally stopped the bleeding with a late score just before intermission. Few teams are capable of catching fire like the Cowboys, who ran off TWENTY-SIX unanswered points in little less than a quarter of play. So, how did they manage that feat, you ask? Well, a 30-yard interception return by (emerging Defensive Back) DaRon Bland to the house followed shortly by a blocked punt of bounds for a safety certainly moved things along, while (veteran Quarterback) Dak Prescott found (Pro-Bowl Receiver) CeeDee Lamb for back-to-back touchdowns. In the end, Dallas amassed 387 total yards on twenty-four first downs, including 102 rushing yards on twenty-six carries, while Prescott completed an efficient 25-of-31 passes for 304 yards, FOUR touchdowns and an interception, connecting with Lamb twelve times for 158 yards and those two aforementioned scores. (Defensive Coordinator) Dan Quinn’s charges did their part in relegating Los Angeles to 280 total yards on fifteen first downs, 4-of-13 on third down, and 1-of-2 on fourth down. (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Micah Parsons logged one of his team’s two sacks of the day, totaling three hits of the Quarterback and pressures along the way, as the defense knocked Matthew Stafford out of the game with a thumb injury. So, now the question becomes this: will the Cowboys carry that momentum into this seismic showdown at the Linc? If McCarthy & Co truly wish to change the narrative around them, then THIS is precisely the kind of game that they need to win. Prior to kickoff this evening, Dallas trails Philadelphia by 1.5 games in both the NFC East and the conference at large, with a potential victory being a boon to their postseason prospects. We’ll get into the relative strength of their upcoming schedule in a bit, but this is exactly the platform they could use to climb the standings and ease some of that pressure from their shoulders. However, another convincing defeat to a team that they figure to be in direct competition with will only turn up the heat for McCarthy and Prescott, who typically endure the bulk of the criticism following a loss.
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys are both 5-2 straight-up and against the spread thus far, though have outright won and covered each of their last two outings, including a narrow 20-17 victory over the Chargers (+1.5) on Monday Night Football, before blasting the Rams (+7) in that rout last weekend. Dating back to last season, this is a team that is 6-4 against the spread over their last ten games overall, including 5-5 in that regard in their past ten trips away from AT&T Stadium. However, there are a number of trends working against Dallas coming into this affair. First, McCarthy’s troops are 0-4-1 versus the spread in their last five games after amassing over 250 passing yards in the previous contest. Second, they have generally struggled when playing on grass fields, covering just ONE (1-7-1 ATS) in their last nine games played on such natural playing turf. Lastly, Prescott & Co are riding a three-game losing streak as an underdog, which is the case in this latest trip to the City of Brotherly Love. Looking at this particular matchup, the home team has won and covered EIGHT of the last ten encounters between these bitter rivals, while the favorite is also 7-3 against the spread during that same period. In last Fall’s trip to Lincoln Financial Field, the Cowboys (+7), were overwhelmed early as they fell behind 0-20 in the first half, though did manage to make a game of it with seventeen unanswered points before the hosts responded with a final touchdown to put it out of reach midway through the fourth quarter. The visitors were done in by self-inflicted wounds, including ten penalties (for a loss seventy-two yards) and three turnovers, all of which were interceptions of (Backup Quarterback) Cooper Rush, who completed 18-of-38 passes for just 181 yards and a touchdown. Of course, Rush was starting in place of Prescott, who had missed the previous four games rehabbing from a broken bone suffered in the index finger on his throwing hand. On the injury front, the defense has suffered some losses this season, including (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Trevon Diggs and (young Linebacker) DeMarvion Overshown, who are both on injured reserve with torn ACLs. With that being said, (veteran Linebacker) Leighton Vander Esch has also been placed on IR with an ailing neck. Thankfully, there is good news to be found in Arlington, as (veteran Left Tackle) Tyron Smith and (Safety) Jayron Kearse are both listed as probable with neck and toe maladies. Looking ahead, the schedule softens considerably for McCarthy & Co after this evening’s tilt in Philly, as they return home for a showdown with the struggling Giants, before hitting the road to Charlotte for a date with the Panthers, followed by the first leg of their annual rivalry with the Commanders, which will be contested at AT&T Stadium.
Meanwhile, though they haven’t looked nearly as dominant as they did during their run to Super Bowl LVII, the Eagles (7-1, 1st in NFC East) nonetheless find themselves in first place in not only the division but the NFC at large, owning the best record in the league to boot. Of course, this is NOT the same team that very nearly hoisted what would have been the franchise’s second Lombardi Trophy, as Philadelphia bid farewell to a number of figures from last year’s team, both on the roster and the coaching staff. With all due respect to the personnel losses, the most notable departures have been those of Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon, who are now the Head Coaches of the Colts and Cardinals respectively. Steichen worked wonders in building a juggernaut of an offense around the unique talents of (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Jalen Hurts, while Gannon cultivated a tenacious defense built upon the pressure of SEVENTY sacks, the most that the NFL had seen in well over thirty years. How (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni would replace his top two lieutenants and how the team would take to the new playcallers always figured to be the main storylines through the 2023 campaign, and now with roughly half of the season in the books, there have been signs of encouragement. Of the two Coordinators, (DC) Sean Desai has endured the roughest transition, as this unit simply hasn’t been as formidable as it was last Fall; they’ve been dominant against the run in yielding just 65.5 yards per game (1st Overall) on 3.8 yards per carry (9th Overall) thanks in large part to the deepest Defensive Line rotation in the league, but it has been a different story against the pass, where these birds have been far too generous. Philly has shipped 247.5 passing yards (26th Overall) and the fourth-most passing touchdowns (16), while ranking twenty-fifth on third down (43.0%) and twenty-sixth in the red zone (65.2%). While it would be hard for them to reach that outrageous sack total from last season, their twenty-five sacks (T-8th Overall), that pressure has also resulted in collapses in coverage, which has had many in East Pennsylvania preferring to blitz less and simply rely upon the talents of the Defensive Line. As for the offense, Sirianni promoted (Quarterbacks Coach) Brian Johnson with continuity in mind, given his work with the aforementioned Hurts. While it hasn’t been as efficient as it was under Steichen, the attack has found its wings, ranking third overall in both points (28.0) and total yards (399.3), including first on third down (50.0%) thanks in large part to their mastery of short yardage situations. The only issues have been taking care of the football, with their thirteen turnovers (23rd Overall) just six away from their total from 2022, while Hurts has already tossed more interceptions (8) than he did in fifteen games last Fall (6). The red zone has also proven to be a concern for the Eagles, who after ranking third in that particular category a year ago (67.8%), have fallen back to the middle of the pack at eighteenth (51.5%). However, scoring 30+ points in consecutive weeks has helped ease those concerns, which was the case as they survived as competitive Commanders side in last weekend’s 38-31 victory in Landover. After falling behind 3-14, Philadelphia cut the deficit seven at halftime before drawing even in the third quarter, as Hurts found (Pro-Bowl Wideout) A.J. Brown for a 25-yard touchdown, his second of the afternoon. Washington would strike back with a touchdown of their own early in the fourth period, only for the visitors to TWENTY-ONE unanswered points to take a commanding 38-24 lead that they would not relinquish. In the end, Sirianni’s troops were outgained 374-472 and lost the turnover battle 2-1, though nonetheless shredded their division rivals through the air, as Hurts completed 29-of-38 passes for 319 yards and FOUR touchdowns. Brown (pictured below) extended his NFL-record to SIX consecutive games with over 120 receiving yards, reeling in eight receptions for 130 yards and those two touchdowns, while (fellow Receiver) DeVonta Smith got into the act too with seven catches of his own for ninety-nine yards and another score.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles may be 7-1 straight-up but it has been a different story against the spread, where they are 4-2-2 thus far with a pair of pushes in their first eight games. Then again, perhaps that is appropriate for a team that has popularized the tush push over the last eighteen months. Anyways, dating back to last season, this is a team that is 5-3-2 against the spread over their last ten games overall, including 5-4-1 in that regard over their past ten games at Lincoln Financial Field. Though they didn’t technically lose against the spread in last weekend’s victory over the Commanders (+7), they failed to cover all the same, which is relevant for Philadelphia coming into this one, as they are riding a streak of four consecutive covers after an ATS loss. As we stated earlier, the home team and favorites have ruled over this rivalry in recent years, with the only instances in which the visitor managed to leave unscathed being Dallas in 2022 and 2018. Furthermore, the underdog has covered just three times during the last ten encounters, with the Cowboys doing so on two occasions. In last Fall’s tilt in the City of Brotherly Love, the birds raced out to an early 20-0 lead before the visitors made a game out of it, cutting the deficit to three points early in the fourth quarter. However, Sirianni’s troops would eventually regain their rhythm, engineering a 13-play, 75-yard drive that bled over seven minutes off the clock, culminating in a short touchdown toss from Hurts to Smith. Interestingly enough, each victory for these teams came against backup passers; Dallas started the aforementioned Rush in the trip to Philly, while Gardner Minshew got the nod in place of Hurts, who was nursing a sprained shoulder, on a Christmas Eve clash at AT&T Stadium. On the injury front, the Eagles have a number of injuries though not to any true starters, there the health of their dominant Defensive Line does bear watching; (Rookie Defensive Tackle) Jalen Carter and (Sophomore Nose Tackle) Jordan Davis are both listed as probable to participate in this evening’s matchup due to a sore back and hamstring respectively. Looking ahead, Philadelphia will head into their bye week following this affair, which will be key for Sirianni & Co as they begin what is easily the most treacherous part of their schedule; (at) Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, (at) Dallas, and (at) Seattle await these birds, which should provide us with an opportunity to assess just how comparable this team is to the one that ran roughshod through the NFC last Fall.