8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Chargers -3.5, Over/Under: 39.5
Week Nine comes to a close in the Meadowlands, where the Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets cross paths in a matchup featuring a pair of AFC playoff hopefuls looking to build some sorely needed momentum. Year in and year out, there are few teams that have proven to be more wildly inconsistent than the Chargers (3-4, 2nd in AFC West). Despite being annually touted as a potential dark horse contender to unseat the Chiefs in the division, while possessing premium talent at a plethora of positions, Los Angeles has nonetheless been a largely average football team, amassing a 29-28 (.508) record since 2020. After collapsing down the stretch and missing the playoffs in his first year with the franchise, (Head Coach) Brandon Staley guided the Bolts to the postseason for the first time in four years, only to fall victim to one of the most inexplicable meltdowns in recent memory, a 30-31 loss at Jacksonville in which they led by TWENTY-SEVEN points in the first half. Needless to say, many felt that Staley would be relieved of his duties following the loss, though the club ultimately decided to give him one more chance to get it right, with the caveat that he makes necessary changes to his coaching staff. He did exactly that, hiring (Offensive Coordinator) Kellen Moore to unlock the lofty potential of a very talented attack, featuring the likes of (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Justin Herbert, (prolific Tailback) Austin Ekeler, and (veteran Receiver) Keenan Allen to name but a few. With that being said, here they are at one game below .500 and mired within a glut of teams vying for separation in the middle of the AFC. In all fairness, injuries have played a hand here, as Ekeler (pictured below) just returned from an ankle injury that had sidelined him since the season opener, while the Receiving Corps (which we’ll get into shortly) has once again been ravaged by maladies. Oh, and it certainly hasn’t helped that Herbert has been playing with a broken finger on his non-throwing hand, which has compromised his ability to take snaps under center in recent weeks. With that said, Moore has done a commendable job of keeping this unit firing on most cylinders; the Chargers rank ninth in points (24.9), seventh in total yards (380.6), sixth in both passing yards (277.0) and net yards per attempt (6.8), twelfth on third down (41.1%), and fourth in the red zone (66.7%), all the while committing the second-fewest turnovers in the league (6). Ironically, the Bolts’ biggest weakness has been their defense, particularly the pass defense, which is purported to be Staley’s specialty. A disciple of the venerable Vic Fangio, the 40-year-old was hired in large part to the job he did in cultivating the top defense in the NFL back in 2020 (Rams). Furthermore, the club has plenty of their salary cap invested in this side of the football, with the likes of (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rushers) Joey Bosa and Kahlil Mack, along with (Pro-Bowl Safety) Derwin James making A LOT of money. With that in mind, it is awfully disappointing that this unit ranks dead-last in both passing yards (297.4) and net yards per attempt (7.2), while shipping a dozen touchdowns through the air (27th Overall). Hell, it was so bad earlier in the campaign, that Staley and (General Manager) Tom Telesco, traded away (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) J.C. Jackson, who they had signed to a lucrative contract the previous Spring, just two games into the schedule. When we last saw Los Angeles, they got back into the win column via a 30-13 over the Bears last Sunday night, which Herbert & Co race out to a commanding 17-0 lead, before continuing to build upon it throughout the second half. In the end, the hosts outgained Chicago 352-295 and made the visiting side pay with a pair of takeaways. Herbert was sublime in completing 31-of-40 passes for 298 yards and three touchdowns, finding Ekeler for a 39-yard score to open their ledger. Despite rushing for just twenty-nine yards on fifteen carries, Ekeler played a large part in the passing game, hauling in seven receptions on eight targets for ninety-four yards and that score, while Allen reeled in eight catches on ten targets for sixty-nine yards of his own. In regard to the defense, James picked off (Rookie QB) Tyson Bagent, while Bosa logged the lone sack of the Division-II standout.
From a betting perspective, the Chargers are both 3-4 straight-up and against the spread thus far, bouncing back after suffering consecutive outright losses and non-covers with last weekend’s comfortable victory over the Bears (+9.5). Dating back to last season, Los Angeles is a middling 5-5 against the spread in their last ten games, while matching that record in their past ten trips away from the City of Angels. With that said, they have covered three straight contests as a favorite and come into this particular affair riding a 4-game run of covers as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. However, we would recommend that you all watch this line in this one, for when Staley’s troops have been road favorites of 0.5-3.0 points, they have failed to cover five such tilts (0-4-1 ATS). Looking at this particular matchup, these teams have crossed paths just once in the last five years, which came during Herbert’s rookie campaign in 2020. In the ninth start of his career, the eventual Offensive Rookie of the Year would absolutely torch Gang Green to the tune of 366 yards and three touchdowns on 37-of-49 passing. He and the aforementioned Allen were sympatico in this one, folks, connecting for sixteen receptions on nineteen targets, 145 yards and a 13-yard touchdown midway through the third quarter to break the game wide open. On the injury front, the Receiving Corps has suffered its share of losses, with Joshua Palmer (knee) now joining both Mike Williams (ACL) and Jalen Guyton (ACL) on Injured Reserve. Furthermore, (veteran Center) Corey Linsley will miss yet another game due to a heart condition. However, (Linebackers) Eric Kendricks (ribs) and Kenneth Murray (shoulder) are both listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s trip to the Meadowlands, while (veteran Tight End) Gerald Everett is probable to return from a quad issue that kept him out of last Sunday’s win. Looking ahead, the Chargers will return to SoFi Stadium for what figures to be a tough battle with surging Lions, before traveling to Lambeau Field for a date with the Packers, prior to a primetime clash with the streaking Ravens.
Meanwhile, when you consider the unrelenting hype train that was the Jets (4-3, 3rd in AFC East) coming into the season opener, and the sudden punch to the gut that came with (veteran Quarterback) Aaron Rodgers’ torn Achilles in that affair, the fact that they have nonetheless found themselves in the mix for playoffs must be considered remarkable. Indeed, Rodgers’ arrival had Gang Green dreaming BIG, folks, and the revelation of having to go right back to (third-year Backup) Zach Wilson must have had the faithful out there in the Meadowlands feeling as nauseous as ever. During his first two seasons in New York, the former second overall pick struggled mightily to say the least, posting an 8-14 record (.363) while completing 55.2% of his throws for an average of 182.8 yards on 5.56 net yards per attempt, with more interceptions (18) than touchdowns (15). Injuries and immaturity stunted his growth, leading (Head Coach) Robert Saleh and (General Manager) Joe Douglas to come to the decision that he would remain in Gotham City, effectively as an understudy to Rodgers with hopes that he would develop further in such an environment. Well, as we touched up earlier, all of that was thrown out the window the moment Rodgers went down for the count, which has now presented the 24-year-old with a golden opportunity to rewrite his narrative. So, how has Plan B gone for the Jets, you ask? Not bad, all things considered, as New York has rallied back from a disappointing 1-3 start to win three consecutive games for the first time since October of last Fall. With the Offensive Line beset by injuries (much more on that in a bit), Wilson has been asked to simply manage the game, while Saleh has placed the fate of his team in the hands of his capable defense, which has risen to the challenge. Last season, this young unit fourth overall in both points allowed (18.6) and total defense (311.0) despite receiving very little help from the other side of the football. This Fall, it has been more of the same; the Jets have yielded just 18.4 points (8th Overall) on 329.3 total yards (14th Overall), thanks in large part to stiffening considerably int eh red zone, where they rank third in the NFL (36.4%), while forcing THIRTEEN turnovers (4th Overall), all but two of which have come in their four victories. Douglas has drafted well, and Saleh has coached this group up, with a number of youthful playmakers impacting things. (All-Pro Defensive Tackle) Quinnen Williams (pictured below) has become one of the very best at his position, wreaking havoc at the line of scrimmage despite logging just 0.5 sacks thus far after posting a career-high twelve last Fall. (Reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year) Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner (also pictured below) lived up to the hype in 2022 and has thus been largely avoided by opposing Quarterbacks in 2023, seeing just twenty-six targets through six games. Defense was the name of the game in last weekend’s 13-10 overtime victory against the Giants, in which the two sides combined for just twenty-three points, 448 total yards, and twenty-four first downs, while converting 4-of-34 third downs between them, with SIXTEEN three-and-outs. To put this into perspective, (Texans Rookie QB) C.J. Stroud threw for more yards yesterday afternoon than both teams managed to amass altogether. Trailing 0-3 early in the first quarter, this one swung on a 50-yard strike from Wilson to (Sophomore Tailback) Breece Hall, who punched it in for the touchdown. The Giants would eventually strike back with seven of their own in the third period, before (veteran Kicker) Greg Zuerlein drilled a 35-yard field goal as time expired to force OT. From there, Saleh’s defense forced a three-and-out, as Wilson navigated the Jets to midfield where they would be aided by a crucial pass interference penalty (30 yards), which set up Zuerlein from the same distance, sinking the game-winner. Wilson completed 17-of-36 passes for 240 yards and a touchdown, though did lose a pair of fumbles, while Hall compiled ninety-three yards from scrimmage and that lone score on eighteen touches. (Reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year) Garrett Wilson hauled in seven receptions on thirteen targets for 100 yards, while (Sophomore Edge-rusher) Jermaine Johnson II accounted for two of his team’s four sacks and four pressures.
From a betting perspective, the Jets are 4-3 straight-up, but are 4-2-1 against the spread, pushing on last weekend’s victory over their neighbors at MetLife Stadium, the Giants, whom they bested by way of a late field goal. Dating back to last season, New York is 4-5-1 versus the spread in their last ten games overall, including 6-4 in their past ten outings in the Meadowlands. However, being an underdog has been good to them, as Saleh’s troops have covered three consecutive games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, the last two times that they’ve been branded as dogs, it has been at home, which is once again the case tonight. As we sated earlier, these teams may both reside in the AFC, but they haven’t crossed paths very often, with tonight’s affair marking their second since 2017. In their most recent encounter, that 28-34 loss in the City of Angels, the Jets were blindsided in the first half where they shipped TWENTY-FOUR unanswered points, highlighted by a 6-yard interception return of (former QB) Joe Flacco. Apart from a small handful for big plays, the offense struggled in this one, amassing just 292 total yards and possessing the football for only 23:32 of game time. Fortunately for Jets fans everywhere, they would be hard-pressed to find many members of that offense on this current incarnation of Gang Green, as the likes of Flacco, Frank Gore, Breshad Perriman, and Denzel Mims adorned those emerald helmets. The aforementioned Williams, who was a proverbial Sophomore on that day, logged half-a-sack, two hits, and three pressures of Herbert. On the injury front, we’ve all be kept apprised as to the rehab of Rodgers, who is targeting the playoffs for a potentially miraculous return from the torn Achilles that he suffered in the season opener, which was coincidentally the last time that the team appeared on Monday Night Football. However, there are other injuries of note, folks, as both (Starting Offensive Linemen) Connor McGovern and Alijah Vera-Tucker will miss the rest of the campaign with a dislocated kneecap and a torn Achilles respectively. (Veteran Tackle) Duane Brown is questionable after being recalled from Injured Reserve with an ailing shoulder, while (Rookie Center) Joe Tippman is also questionable with a tender quadriceps. Looking ahead, New York will the road for a trip to Las Vegas before returning east for a rematch with Buffalo, followed by the first leg of their annual rivalry with Miami, which will be contested at MetLife.