8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Bears -3.5, Over/Under: 39.0
Week Ten kicks off with a pair of teams circling the proverbial drain, though nonetheless remain connected through their recent dealings in the Draft, as the Chicago Bears play host to the Carolina Panthers tonight from Soldier Field. Indeed, this matchup may not offer much to look at on paper, but there is plenty of connective tissue between them thanks to the events of last April’s NFL Draft, which is likely to have major implications on next Spring’s annual event. Last February, the Panthers (1-7, Last in NFC South) decided to hit the reset button after suffering a fifth consecutive losing campaign, having fired (former Head Coach) Matt Rhule just five games into the schedule. (Owner) David Tepper and (General Manager) Scott Fitterer combed the landscape for candidates, ultimately settling upon Frank Reich as their new leading man. Of course, Reich had spent the previous five seasons in Indianapolis, taking them to the postseason on two occasions despite a never-ending parade of starting Quarterbacks, though was unceremoniously fired midseason after a poor start last Fall. Meanwhile, in an effort to grant their new HC with some long sought out stability at QB, the Panthers traded up NINE spots in the 2023 NFL Draft to select (2021 Heisman winner) Bryce Young, first overall out of Alabama. Sure, Carolina gave up quite a bit of draft cache to make the deal happen, shipping both their first and second-round pick, along with next year’s first and second, in addition to the services of (veteran Receiver) D.J. Moore to the Bears (much more on this in a bit) in exchange for the opportunity to select first in a draft ripe with potential franchise passers. Now, we’ve seen in the past how similar ambition has paid off handsomely, while in other cases it certainly has not, though it was nonetheless a sign that this new regime is very serious about the project on their hands. With that being said, the Panthers moved up for their Quarterback, but the question remains if they in fact selected the right Quarterback? By all reports, Young’s (pictured below) intelligence, mechanics, accuracy, and quick release were all graded as elite coming out of Tuscaloosa, though concerns over his slight frame (5-10, 204 pounds) had the football world split right down the middle as to his pro prospects. Would he be able to hold up physically in the NFL and avoid injury? How would he adjust to larger, faster, and more complex defenses on this level? Well, in regard to the latter query, he did ply his trade in the SEC, so we think he should be able to adjust without much trouble, though the questions over his size are real. It also hasn’t helped that the other Quarterbacks selected after him have all enjoyed varying degrees of success, most notably the Texans’ C.J. Stroud, who was picked immediately after Young. Whereas the Ohio State product is fresh off an NFL-record 470 passing yards and five touchdowns last weekend en route to leading Houston to a surprising 4-4 start, it has been a different story in Charlotte, where Young has already missed time to a concussion, while his team has experienced a failure to launch with just one win in eight tries. In seven starts, the 22-year-old has completed 63.9% of his passes for an average of 196.4 yards per game on just 4.16 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions and a poor QBR of 29.5. With little playmakers surrounding him, the offense has been hard to watch, averaging 17.5 points (26th Overall) on 314.2 total yards (28th Overall), including 217.9 through the air (27th Overall) on 4.4 net yards per attempt (31st Overall) and 96.3 yards on the ground (24th Overall) on 3.9 yards per carry (30th Overall). To put this into perspective, they’ve attempted the third-most passes in the league, yet rank sixth-worst in passing yardage, which should provide you with an idea as to how difficult it has been for this unit. When we last saw the Panthers, they looked to build some precious momentum after securing their first win of the season, though nonetheless met defeat in an ugly 13-27 performance against Reich’s former employers, the Colts. This one was on the Rookie Quarterback, folks, as Young threw not one, but two pick-sixes, both to the same player, Indianapolis’ Kenny Moore. The first came just twenty seconds before halftime with an opportunity to head into intermission with only a 7-point deficit, while the second came in the fourth quarter on the opponent’s side of the field with another chance to draw within one possession. In the end, the hosts outgained Indy 275-198, rushing for 138 yards on twenty-eight carries and converting 7-of-16 third downs along with 2-of-3 fourths. However, Reich’s troops committed THREE crucial turnovers on the evening, while being flagged ten times for a loss of eighty-one yards. Young went on to complete 24-of-39 passes for 173 yards, a touchdown and those two interceptions, though was under fire throughout the game, suffering four sacks, seven hits, and many more pressures. In what was yet another learning exercise for the young signal-caller, he’ll have to put that performance behind him in preparation of what should be a winnable game in the Windy City, while Reich has already relinquished playcalling duties weeks ago, so it will be interesting to see what kind of adjustments he and his coaching staff make on this short turnaround…
From a betting perspective, the Panthers are a lowly 1-7 straight-up this season and have only been marginally better against the spread, posting a 1-6-1 mark thus far. After achieving their first outright win and cover of the campaign two weeks ago in a narrow 15-13 victory over the Texans (-3.5), they returned right back to poor form with that loss to the Colts (-1.5) last Sunday. Dating back to last season, this is a team that is 2-7-1 against the spread in their last ten games overall, including 4-6 in that regard over their last ten trips away from Bank of America Stadium, though have covered just one of their last five road ventures. For those interested in wagering on these cats, there are a number of trends working against Reich & Co. First, they are 0-4-1 in their last five meetings with NFC opponents. If that doesn’t do it for you, Carolina is also 0-4-1 in their past five games after being held to less than 150 passing yards, which is the case tonight. Furthermore, they have failed to cover FOUR consecutive contests as a road underdog, while riding a four-game losing streak away from Charlotte altogether. Looking at this particular matchup, tonight’s tilt at Soldier Field marks the first encounter between these two franchises since 2020 and the first in the Windy City in six years. Interestingly, the Panthers may have won only one of the last six meetings, but they have covered three of the last five. While they are barely any players remaining from their most recent tryst three years ago, there is plenty of connective tissue between the coaching staffs; when Reich was leading the Colts, his opposite number, Matt Eberflus, served as his Defensive Coordinator for four seasons (2018-2021). On the injury front, there is plenty for the Panthers to sort out on this short week, with the availability of the following players hanging in the balance: (Veteran safety) Vonn Bell (quadriceps), (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Brian Burns (concussion), and (young Receivers) Laviska Shenault (ankle) and D.J. Chark (elbow) are listed as questionable to participate in this trip to the Chi. Furthermore, (talented young Safety) Jeremy Chinn isn’t expected to return until later this month due to a quad strain of his own, which is just another blow to a defense that is without two key playmakers, (Linebacker) Shaq Thompson (leg) and (emerging Cornerback) Jaycee Horn (hamstring), who are both out for the year with respective maladies. Looking ahead, it doesn’t figure to get much easier for Carolina, who will return to Charlotte for a date with the Cowboys next weekend, before Young faces off with another QB from his draft class, Will Levis and the Titans, followed by crucial back-to-back affairs within the division against the Buccaneers and Saints.
Meanwhile, it would take more than the space in this column to appropriately describe the proverbial dumpster fire that has been the Bears (2-7, Last in NFC North) this Fall, for where their opponent was expected to struggle in the first year of a rebuild, this team has fell well below expectations in the second year of their own project. Basically, Chicago willingly took a step back last season so that they could take two steps forward in 2023, though you would be hard-pressed as to describe any steps made over the past two months as progressive. So, where shall we start? First, (General Manager) Ryan Poles and (Head Coach) Matt Eberflus traded down in last Spring’s Draft, setting themselves up for the future with a wealth of draft capital via that aforementioned deal with the Panthers, acquiring two picks in the first two rounds of next year’s event, while also adding a criminally-underrated playmaker in the form of Moore (more on him shortly). However, by eschewing the opportunity to select any of the highly-rated Quarterback prospects available at the top of the Draft, Poles and Eberflus effectively cemented their trust in (third-year QB) Justin Fields, who really made strides over the second half of the previous campaign. Furthermore, the Bears were armed with the most available cap space in the NFL, which they put to use in revamping the worst defense in franchise history. Combine that with the shifting landscape within the NFC and this appeared to be a team that could compete for a playoff spot, with some even calling them a dark horse contender to win the division for the first time since 2018. Unfortunately, virtually everything that they have done has backfired. First and foremost, Fields (pictured below) had been a basket case even before suffering a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand that has sidelined him for three games now. His completion percentage has improved incrementally (61.7%) and the TD/INT Ratio isn’t terrible (11/6), but he has struggled to stretch the field (7.6 intended air yards per attempt), while finding himself under even more pressure (29.4%) than he did a year after suffering the most sacks in the NFL (55). Furthermore, the 24-year-old hasn’t been nearly as effective when rushing the football, be it on designed runs or scrambles, averaging 36.7-fewer yards per game and 2.1-less yards per carry than he did a year ago when he led the league with 7.1 yards per rush! The fact that the attack has looked better at times with (Division II Rookie QB) Tyson Bagent running the show has spoken volumes and given the precarious futures of Poles, Eberflus, and the former eleventh overall pick looking bleak. The other part of this equation has been a woeful defense that despite major investments, nonetheless remains one of the league’s worst; Chicago ranks twenty-eighth in points allowed (26.9), nineteenth in total yards allowed (336.6), and twenty-eighth against the pass (256.9), while completely failing the situational aspect of the game in terms of third down (48.7%) and in the red zone (75.0%), where they sit dead-last and next-to-last respectively. Granted, the offense committing EIGHTEEN turnovers (31st Overall) has certainly undermined their efforts to grow, but the results continue to be unflattering for a unit that Eberflus has been forced to personally take over following the abrupt resignation of (Defensive Coordinator) Alan Williams less than a month into the schedule. However, we’ll say this about Poles and Eberflus: if they are going out, then they’ll do so swinging. Rather than being sellers at the Trade Deadline, the Bears turned out to be surprising buyers, acquiring the services of (former Commanders Edge-Rusher) Montez Sweat in exchange for a 2024 second round pick. The pass-rush has been a persistent issue in the Windy City with a league-low TEN sacks, making the decision to add the former first-rounder a no-brainer; in just over four seasons in Washington, Sweat amassed 35.5 sacks, forty-seven tackles for loss, eighty-five QB hits, and 132 pressures, while forcing nine fumbles. Needless to say, he was signed to a 4-year, $98 million contract with $62.8 million in guarantees, keeping him from hitting unrestricted free agency in the Spring. When we last saw the Bears, their turnover woes ultimately kept them from escaping New Orleans with an upset victory, committing a whopping FIVE of them in a 17-24 loss to the Saints. The visitors fought like hell in this one, though four turnovers from Bagent and a lost fumble from Moore would send Eberflus & Co home emptyhanded. Bagent did complete 18-of-30 passes for 220 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for another seventy yards on eight carries, though those self-inflicted wounds were simply too damaging to overcome. Owning what could very well be two of the top three or four picks in the 2024 Draft, Chicago will likely have an opportunity to really make a positive impact on their roster, though it remains anyone’s guess as to whether Fields, Poles, or Eberflus will be around to see it…
From a betting perspective, the Bears may be 2-7 straight-up thus far, but they have been a bit more rewarding to those wagering on them, posting a 3-5-1 mark against the spread through nine games. After failing to cover any of their first four outings, Chicago has since covered three of their last five contests, including last weekend’s trip to New Orleans, where they narrowly covered as 8.5-point underdogs. Dating back to last season, this is a team that is 3-6-1 against the spread in their last ten games overall, while matching that record over their past ten tilts at Soldier Field. Say what you will about Eberflus’ charges, but they have been a solid play when coming off a loss, riding a 3-0-1 run following a straight-up defeat, which is the case tonight. As we touched upon earlier, these two clubs haven’t met since 2020, and while the Bears have generally gotten the best of the Panthers in this series (6-3 SU since 2005), neither team really has anyone of note leftover from that aforementioned 23-16 victory in Charlotte three years ago. There is, however, the connection between Eberflus and Reich from their time together in Indianapolis, where the former coordinated an annually stingy defense to three separate top-10 finishes in points allowed. There is also Moore, who spent the first five years of his career in Carolina; selected twenty-fourth overall back in the 2018 NFL Draft, he would go on to post three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons (2019-2021) despite suffering from regular upheaval at Quarterback, which reportedly played a role in his desire to leave the club back in the Spring. On the injury front, the biggest story is clearly Fields, who has been listed as day-to-day with that dislocated right thumb. Given Bagent’s relatively inspiring performance thus far, Eberflus may opt to keep Fields on the bench for one more week, weighing the risk against a struggling opponent that they may be able to take care of as is. Furthermore, (young Tailback) Khalil Herbert has been recalled from Injured Reserve thus opening the 21-day window for his return to action from a high ankle sprain. (Young Tight End) Cole Kmet (knee), (young Safety) Jaquan Brisker (concussion), and (veteran Linebacker) Tremaine Edmunds (knee) are also listed as questionable to participate in this affair from Soldier Field. Looking ahead, the Bears will hit the road for back-to-back battles against their NFC North brethren, facing the Lions and Vikings in successive weeks before enjoying a long-awaited bye.