1:00 PM EST, FOX – Line: 49ers -3.0, Over/Under: 46.5
Division leaders heading in very different directions clash today in what could potentially be a preview of Super Bowl LVIII, as the fading San Francisco 49ers look to put an end to their losing streak as the travel to Jacksonville to face the surging Jaguars, who are off to their best start in over twenty years. If it seems like it was only yesterday that the 49ers (5-3, T-1st in NFC West) were undefeated and running roughshod over the league, it was actually about a month ago, as (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan & Co have experienced a stark turn, losing three consecutive games for the first time since October of 2021. Needless to say, this quite a surprise for a team that had won SEVENTEEN of eighteen games (including playoffs) at one point and looked like one of the legitimate favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, which would be the franchise’s first since 1994. So, what in the name of Dwight Clark has happened in San Francisco, you ask? Well, injuries on the offensive side of the football have exposed some chinks in their armor, while their typically-stout defense has sprung some serious leaks. First and foremost, we’ll start with the offensive side of the football, where (Sophomore Quarterback) Brock Purdy has performed a complete about-face now that injuries have plagued his supporting cast. By now we all know the story of Purdy (pictured below), the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft (262nd Overall), who emerged as revelation in a whirlwind debut campaign for the Niners in place of an injured Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance. The 24-year-old performed well beyond both his years and draft selection in leading San Fran to a second consecutive NFC Championship Game, where he would suffer an elbow injury early on that knocked him out of that affair. Shanahan and (General Manager) John Lynch thought so highly of Purdy that they allowed Garoppolo to hit Free Agency and traded away Lance, whom they initially traded up to select THIRD OVERALL in the 2021 NFL Draft. Purdy would immediately repay their trust, leading the 49ers to a stellar 5-0 start in which they were hammering opponent by an average margin of 20.6 points and enjoying a healthy turnover differential of +7. During that stretch, Purdy was sublime in completing an efficient 72.1% of his passes for an average of 254.2 yards on a whopping 9.04 net yards per attempt, with NINE touchdowns opposed to ZERO interceptions, while rushing for another two scores to boot. However, with the absences of both (perennial Pro-Bowl Left Tackle) Trent Williams and (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Deebo Samuel missing time to injuries (we’ll get into that shortly), the offense and Purdy in particular, have looked mortal for the first time in quite a while. During this three-game skid, San Francisco has been held to 17.0 points per game with a turnover margin of -3. As for Purdy, his completion has plummeted to 62.5% despite throwing for roughly the same volume of yardage (254.0), while tossing more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (3). While most Quarterbacks would struggle without an elite pass-protector and a premium pass-catcher, these struggles have revealed what many around the league feared about Purdy, who appears to be another product of Shanahan’s excellent play-calling and game-planning. Though we could certainly pile on the young signal-caller, the defense certainly hasn’t helped matters of late either, with (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Wilks meeting his first hurdle of adversity since joining the team in the Spring. After four consecutive top-5 finishes, this unit lived up to the hype through the first five weeks, yielding just 13.6 points on 266.8 total yards and forcing NINE turnovers along the way, only to experience problems of their own in recent outings; during this losing streak, San Fran has relinquished 24.0 points per game on 395.3 total yards despite still getting their hands on the football with four takeaways. In fact, they’ve shipped over 400 yards in each of the past two contests, including a season-high thirty-one points in a 17-31 defeat at home to the Bengals two weeks ago. After a field goal saw them head into halftime trailing 10-14, the hosts were outscored 7-17 in the second half as Cincinnati moved the football at will, rushing for 134 yards and passing for another 283. Granted, Purdy & Co amassed 460 of their own, but three turnovers from the young QB put his defense in some tough positions against one of the more formidable offensive sides in the league. In the end, Purdy completed 22-of-31 passes for 365 yards, a touchdown, two interceptions and a lost fumble, while (emerging Wideout) Brandon Aiyuk and (veteran Tight End) George Kittle each topping 100 receiving yards. However, this passing attack is predicated on being complementary to the run game, which simply hasn’t been the case for about a month now as Shanahan searches for answers. While we all expect a return to form once this unit returns to health, Shanahan & Lynch felt it was necessary to add reinforcements at the Trade Deadline, though not on the offensive side of the football; San Francisco acquired the services of (2020 Defensive Rookie of the Year) Chase Young in exchange for a compensatory third-round pick in next April’s NFL Draft. After missing much of the 2021 and 2022 campaigns recovering from a torn ACL, the former Pro-Bowler has logged five sacks and eighteen pressures with the Commanders this Fall and should slot right in as a premium bookend opposite of his former collegiate teammate, (reigning Defensive Player of the Year) Nick Bosa.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers may be 5-3 straight-up, but they are 4-3-1 against the spread thus far, failing to cover each of their last three outings after aa stellar 4-0-1 start to the campaign. San Francisco has been favored in every game this season, with that recent loss at home to Cincinnati coming as 4-point favorites. Dating back to 2022, this is a team that is 5-4-1 against the spread in their last ten games overall, including a 4-5-1 mark away from Levi’s Stadium, covering only one of their last five road ventures (1-3-1 ATS). Furthermore, Shanahan’s troops are riding a streak of four consecutive non-covers when on the road against opponents with winning home records, which is the case this afternoon. We would also implore you all to watch the line movement in this one, folks, for this is a team that has also dropped four straight games against the spread as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. With that being said, the Niners have shown a propensity to bounce back from poor defensive displays during the Shanahan era, covering SIX consecutive contests after allowing thirty or more points, which they shipped to the Bengals two weeks ago. Looking at this particular matchup, they may not meet very often, but San Fran has utterly owned the series between these teams, winning all but two of their six all-time meetings (5-1 ATS), including each of the last four dating back to 2009. When they last crossed paths back in 2021, the 49ers dominated the Jags in Northern Florida, leading 20-3 at halftime en route to enjoying a comfortable 30-10 victory. The visitors rushed for 171 yards on forty-two carries, possessing the football for a commanding 38:22, with Samuel putting in work in the Backfield with seventy-nine rushing yards and a touchdown on eight carries, while reeling in one pass for another fifteen yards. Aiyuk and Kittle added eighty-five and thirty-four yards of their own, with each pass-catcher hauling in a score from the aforementioned Garoppolo. Defensively, the Niners relegated the hosts to a scant 200 total yards and forced a pair of turnovers, both of which were recovered fumbles. On the injury front, Shanahan & Co are hoping that the bye week proved to be the remedy to their recent woes, as they should be closer to full strength following a week of rest. Williams has missed the previous three games with a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable to participate today, though the aforementioned Samuel isn’t projected to return for another few weeks as he recovers from a hairline fracture in his shoulder. Looking ahead, the schedule doesn’t let up for these guys, who will return to Santa Clara next weekend to face the Buccaneers, before traveling to Seattle for a midweek affair with the Seahawks that figures to have major implications on the NFC West, followed by a titanic showdown at the Eagles in a rematch of last January’s NFC Championship Game.
Meanwhile, after spending over a decade largely mired in mediocrity, the Jaguars (6-2, 1st in AFC South) have now comfortably escaped the proverbial wilderness, as they are off to their best start since 1999. What a difference a coach can make, folks, as (Head Coach) Doug Pederson has taken a franchise that went a startling 47-130 (.265) from 2011 to 2021, only to guide them to a 15-10 (.600) stretch since his arrival last Fall. With six wins in their first eight games, Jacksonville hasn’t started this hot in a quarter of a century, with that run in 1999 resulting in a place in the AFC Championship Game, which has proven to be this franchise’s zenith. Of course, the difference between last year and this one is expectations, which is something that this club hasn’t experienced in a very long time. However, there is no question that Pederson is the correct man to lead them; the 55-year-old led the Eagles to their first Super Bowl title in just his second season on the job, doing so with a Backup Quarterback no less, and dealt with an ongoing QB controversy for years afterward, which by comparison should make his current task of raising these young cats a proverbial walk in the park. A result of being so bad for so many years, the Jaguars are stocked with a plethora of young talent just waiting to be cultivated by a coaching staff that knows what to do, and now we are starting to see their lofty potential. During this five-game win streak, they’ve beaten their opponents by an average margin of 11.0 points and thrived off a healthy turnover margin of +4, thanks in large part to a defense that has logged a whopping TWELVE takeaways. On the season, no team in the league has taken the ball away from the opposition more than Jacksonville (18), while balanced play-calling and a litany of weapons has made the offense one of the more formidable attacks in the NFL. (Third-year Tailback) Travis Etienne has emerged as a bonfide threat out of the Backfield, rushing for 583 yards and seven touchdowns, while hauling in another 266 yards through the air and a score, with the pass-catching triumvirate of (Receivers) Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley alongside (Tight End) Evan Engram each topping thirty receptions and 400 receiving yards. However, this is a QB-driven league, and all eyes remain fixated on the continued development of Trevor Lawrence who is now in his third season in the NFL and second under the watchful eye of Pederson. After an utterly lost rookie campaign under the previous regime, the former number one overall pick grew exponentially under Pederson’s tutelage last Fall, which has led to major expectations in year two. So, how has his evolution progressed, you ask? Well, Lawrence (pictured below) has shown moderate growth from his sophomore year, though he is still very much just scratching the surface; over the last five games, the 24-year-old has completed an efficient 70.9% of his throws for an average of 239.8 yards on 6.93 net yards per attempt, with six touchdowns in comparison to two interceptions, while also factoring into the run game with another 157 yards on twenty-seven carries. He has however been sacked thirteen times during that stretch, which has caused him to lose a pair of fumbles as well, while forcing him to wear brace on his knee following a shot that he took during a 37-20 romp over the Colts. For he and the offense to really make the next leap, they’re going to need to protect him better and be more careful with the football (13 turnovers), while also improving from a situational standpoint. This is where their lack of maturity comes into play, folks, for the Jaguars rank twenty-fifth on third down (35.5%) and twenty-sixth within the red zone (47.6%). Simply put, if they want to truly compete with the elite teams in the AFC, then MUST become more efficient in those departments. When we last saw Jacksonville, they went into their bye week winners following a 20-10 victory on the road at Pittsburgh. This game was a perfect example as to who this team is at the moment, for while they had every opportunity to obliterate the Steelers, they continued to leave us all wanting. Pederson’s troops outgained the hosts 377-261 and possessed the football for a commanding 34:16, though nonetheless were forced to settle for four field goals courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Brandon McManus, while committing a season-high three turnovers along the way, two of which came in their first four drives. Lawrence completed 24-of-32 passes for 292 yards and a touchdown, but was also intercepted late in the second quarter, while taking three sacks, six hits, and ten pressures. Etienne posted 149 yards from scrimmage, including a 56-yard touchdown toss from Lawrence, while both Engram and Ridley topped eighty yards receiving. Defensively, the visiting side picked off Kenny Pickett twice and sacked the young QB three times, hit him on nine occasions, and applied eleven pressures. We’ll see if they’re able to iron out some of these wrinkles against the Niners’ defense this afternoon, while (Defensive Coordinator) Mike Caldwell’s unit could have a field day given San Francisco’s generous turnovers woes…
From a betting perspective, the Jaguars are both 6-2 straight-up and against the spread thus far, winning and covering each of their last FIVE games. Jacksonville has really mixed it up during this stretch, covering twice as a small road dog against Buffalo (in London) and New Orleans, while also covering as small favorites at home and most recently on the road in that win in Pittsburgh two weeks ago. Dating back to last season, this is a team that has definitely been a darling for bettors, owning an 8-2 record against the spread in their last ten outings overall, matching that mark in their past ten contests as an underdog. Furthermore, the Jags have covered five straight games after amassing over 250 passing yards in the previous tilt, which is the case this afternoon. As we stated earlier, these teams have met on just six occasions in the history of their respective franchises (remember, the Jaguars were an expansion team in 1995), with this being a very one-sided series; Jacksonville hasn’t beaten San Francisco since 2005 and hasn’t covered the spread against them since 1999! In that aforementioned 10-30 loss back in 2021, the Jags were still very much mired (pun intended) within the Urban Meyer dumpster fire; the hosts could muster just three points until tacking on a consolation touchdown on their final drive of the day, mustering a mere 200 yards of total offense and possessing the football for a scant 21:38. In what was the tenth start of his career, Lawrence struggled mightily against the Niners’ staunch defense, completing 16-of-25 passes for 158 yards, suffering three sacks, six hits, and nine pressures. On the injury front, Pederson’s troops are also coming off a bye week, so they should be relatively close to full strength with only a few notable situations to monitor. (Emerging Cornerback) Tyson Campbell and (young Safety) Andre Cisco are both listed as questionable after missing the last game with respective hamstring strains, while (veteran Receiver) Zay Jones is getting closer to making his return after being sidelined for each of the last three outings with a bulky knee. Looking ahead, these cats will have a golden opportunity to wrap up the AFC South against the Titans and Texans in successive weeks, the first at home and the latter on the road. Remember, Houston handed them one of their two losses this Fall, a stunning 17-37 upset at EverBank Stadium back in late September.